Written Commentary
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June 1, 2023
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SN is down 8 cents and near 14.70. SMN is near 449.2. BON is near 54.86. CN is down 3 cents and near 6.32. WN is down 9 cents and near 6.83. KWN is down 12 cents and near 8.37. MWN is down 3 cents and near 8.63. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower.
Soybean futures are lower. Failure of SN to trade over 15.00 triggered some long liquidation. Still, SN-SX remains strong at +171. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures were all lower. Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated at 200-400 mt. There has been no new US sales to China. Brazil farmer still selling. Brazil soybean export basis also falling. EU rapeseed prices are lower on good 2023 crop outlook. Energy prices are also lower on demand worries.
Corn futures are lower. Failure of CN to trade over 6.50 triggered some long liquidation. Old CBOT rule, you have to feed a bull market twice a day, but a bear market only once a month. Some selling linked to progress in transit corn from Ukraine to EU and some Black Sea vessels being inspected. There was no vessel inspections or moving yesterday. There are 27 waiting inbound and 43 outbound. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated at 600-900 mt. There has been no new US corn daily sales announced for last 3 days. New crop Brazil and Ukraine corn exports prices are lower on demand worries.
Wheat futures are lower. EU model suggest US south plains rains next week. Enough said for now. Weekly US wheat export sales are estimated at 0-500 mt. Some selling linked to progress in transit grain from Ukraine to EU and some vessels being inspected. There was no vessel inspections or moving yesterday. EU supplies are high with 2023 crop off to good start. Russia Ag Minister suggested Russia 2023 wheat crop near 78 mmt due to lower yields vs some talk of 84 and 92 ly. KWN getting closer to 8.25 support. US north plains and west Canada still cool and wet. MWN-KWN found support near +10.
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