Grain Mixed as Russia Orders Mobilization

MORNING OUTLOOK

Grains are mixed. SX is up 2 cents and near 14.81. SMZ is near 436.9. BOZ is near 66.62. CZ is up 3 cents and near 6.95. WZ is up 11 cents and near 9.05. KWZ is up 10 cents and near 9.73. MWZ is up 7 cents and near 9.66.

US Dollar is higher. US stocks are higher. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, sugar and cotton are higher. Copper, coffee and cocoa are lower. Trade trying to even up positions before todays Fed meeting minutes.

Big new overnight was Russia President Putin has ordered Russia’s first mobilization since WWII. Russia’s defense minister said the partial mobilization will see 300,000 reserves called and up would apply to those with previous military experience. Ahead of Putin’s speech, in an apparently coordinated move on Tuesday, Moscow-installed leaders in occupied areas of four Ukrainian regions announced plans to hold referendums on joining Russia in coming days

SX saw a second day of gains yesterday, mostly being pulled by the huge rally in wheat following Russia’s announcement of referendums in Russian-controlled areas of E Ukraine.  SX is moving closer to 15.00 in front of US harvest, USDA Sep 30 stocks report, month end trading and planting of 2023 Brazil and Argentina soybean crops. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were higher.

US wheat futures jumped 40-60 cents yesterday following Russia’s announcement that Friday would see the start of referendums in four Russian-controlled areas of E Ukraine which suggest a significant escalation in the conflict, which sparked renewed fears of major disruptions to Black Sea supplies. Ongoing dryness in the US plains is also supportive for US wheat. WZ is now over 9.00 and KWZ and MWZ is close to 10.00.

CZ saw good gains yesterday in part due to concern about Black Sea exports after Russia announced plans to escalate tension in Ukraine. CZ is near 7.00. Corn is also supported by strong domestic cash basis and talk of lower US final crop. There remains concern of lower EU corn crop and higher imports.

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