Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2025
March 25, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is near $69. Gold is higher. USDA March 31 stocks and acreage report and April 2 when new tariff reciprocal will be announced will be key to price volatility.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.02. SK support is 10.00. Futures struggling with slower demand for US soybean exports vs lower US 2025 acres. Dalian soybean and soymeal were higher, palmoil and soyoil futures were lower. Over the next 10 days, Brazil and Argentina should see rain. USDA acreage and March 1 stocks report next. Trade could see US 2025 acres near 83.0 vs 87.0 ly. Stocks 1,880 mil bu vs 1,845 ly. Some est US 2024/25 soybean carryout near 400 mil bu vs USDA 380 due to lower exports. US soybean exports are near 39.9 mmt vs 36.5 ly. USDA goal is 49.6 mmt vs 46.1 ly.
CORN
CK is near 4.63. 4.55 is key support. 4.70 is resistance. Dalian corn futures were lower. Trade looking for lower 2025 corn prices if US farmers plant 94.0 mil corn acres vs 90.6 last year and summer weather is normal. Some estimates are now as high as 96.0. Trade could see US March 1 stocks near 8,200 mil bu vs 8,352 ly. On April 1, market tends to shift focus from old crop demand to US spring planting weather. Some est US 2024/25 corn carryout near 1,505 mil bu vs USDA 1,540. Lower feed and residual offsets higher exports. US corn exports are near 32.2 mmt vs 24.4 ly. USDA goal is 62.2 mmt vs 58.2 ly.
WHEAT
WK is near 5.45. KWK is near 5.73. MWK is near 5.90. EU weather maps forecast rains in US south plains and Russia. Wheat US 2025 all wheat acres could be near 46.6 vs 46.0 ly. March 1 stocks 1,240 mil bu vs 1,089 ly. Some could see US 2024/25 wheat carryout at 825 mil bu vs USDA 819 due to lower exports. Some also feel US 2025/26 all wheat US carryout could drop to 675 mil bu due to lower final crop. Fact USDA estimates World 2024/25 exports at 208 mmt, down from 220 last year offering resistance to futures. World wheat production is est at 797 mmt vs 791 last year. US wheat exports are 16.8 mmt vs 14.2 last year. USDA goal is 22.7 vs 19.2 ly.
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