Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2024
March 19, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK has turned down 12 cents and near 14.07. SMK is near 437.8. BOK is near 51.76. CK is up 1 cent and near 6.33. CN-CZ is near +61. WK is up 6 cents and near 6.68. KWK is up 5 cents and near 8.25. MWK is up 8 cents and near 8.49. WK-CK is only +36. KWK-WK is at new high near +156. US stocks are lower. Crude is lower. US Dollar is higher.
Nearby corn future rallied. CN-CZ is near +61. New export demand is supportive. Another 123 mt of US corn was sold to China. Still, US corn export commit is down 34 pct vs ly. Argentina crop is still est near 36 mmt. Argentina harvest is yet to start vs 24 average. Brazil new crop corn export basis is lower with talk of China buy more JAS. Our weather guy special report today headline Negative PDO may turn US Midwest drier later in 2023.
Soybean and soymeal futures are lower. Soyoil is lower. Soyoil is In a bear market with RSO, palmoil and canola oil all sharply lower. Global crush margins are lower. Given drop in Argentina soybean supply the $50 drop in soymeal futures could be linked to lower demand. There is unconfirmed talk that 3 cargoes of Brazil soybeans were sold into US east coast. Weekly US soybean export sales were lower than expected. Trade still looking for funds to continue to liquidate their net soybean and soymeal long and add to soyoil short. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures were all sharply lower.
US north plains and Canada remain cold with more snow expected across US north plains. US SW is dry. US Midwest Delta and SE are wet. More talk of lower US HRW crop and lower US HRS acres/more PP acres. There is talk XI may have agreed to buy Russia wheat. Matif wheat is near 18 month lows on farmer panic selling despite fact EU crop is 54 mmt vs 71 ly. There are rumors that Russia may halt wheat exports due to drop in prices. KWK-WK is new high near +156. WK-CK is only 36 cents.
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