Written Commentary
Sean Barry 2025 ChicagoCIO ORBIE Finalist
February 6, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is slightly higher. Gold is lower. CBOT grains will be closed Tuesday night, Wednesday, Wednesday night and reopen Thursday morning. Merry New Year. Some feel grains are higher on some yearend short covering. Could be some chart buying in corn.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 9.93. Dalian soybeans, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were lower. N and C Brazil weather remains favorable for crops and still supports a record soybean crop. Argentina weather is dry. January rains will be needed to insure a normal crop. Market will begin to position for USDA January reports of supply and demand, Dec 1 stocks and final US 2024 crop sizes. Dec 1 US soybean stocks are est at 3,230 mil bu vs 3,000 ly. Crush was 605 vs 576 ly. Exports were 803 vs 712 ly. US 2024 crop should stay near 4,460 mil bu. US 2024/25 carryout could increase to 480 mil bu vs USDA Dec est fo 470.
CORN
CH is near 4.56. Managed funds have been big buyers of futures post US holiday on a drier Argentina forecast. For now, soil moistures levels are adequate. Market will begin to position for USDA January reports of supply and demand, Dec 1 stocks and final US 2024 crop sizes. Dec 1 US corn stocks are est at 12,105 mil bu vs 12,171 ly. FSI was 2,600 vs 2,486 ly. Ethanol use was 1,720 vs 1,676 ly. Exports were 482 vs 377 ly. US 2024 crop should stay near USDA 15,143. US 2024/25 carryout could drop to 1,525 mil bu vs USDA Dec est fo 1,738. CH resistance is now 4.60. Need lower Argentina crop to push above resistance.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.48. KWH is near 5.57. MWH is near 5.97. Lower Russia’s grain export quota could offer support. USDA January reports may not have a big impact on prices. Dec 1 US wheat stocks are est at 1,538 mil bu vs 1,421 ly. Exports were 203 vs 155 ly. Food use 966 mil bu vs 961 ly. US 2024/25 carryout should remain at 795 mil bu. SRW 224 VS 274 ly. HRW 630 vs 508 ly. Some look for nearby Chicago wheat futures could be in a 5.30-5.85 range.
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