Written Commentary
The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2024
March 19, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK up 6 cents and near 14.48. SMK is near 448.7. BOK is near 54.55. CK is down 1 cent and near 6.46. WK is unch and near 6.97. KWK is up 1 cent and near 8.61. MWK is down 2 cents and near 8.71. US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold, silver and copper are higher.
Soybeans and soymeal continues to rebound from recent lows before Fridays key USDA acreage and stocks report. Weekly US soybean exports were 32 mil bi vs 23 ly. Season to date exports are near 1,651 mil bu vs 1,597 ly. USDA goal is 2,015 vs 2,158 ly. Some est final exports closer to 1,995 which could put US 2023/24 carryout closer to 230 vs USDA 210. Brazil farmers are still sellers of 2023 crop. 70 pct of crop is harvested. Drier weather is helping complete harvest. Yield to date are coming in above early est which suggest crop could be closer to 155 mmt vs USDA 153.0. Global RSO prices have finally stopped trading lower. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil prices were higher.
Corn futures are a little lower from recent highs before Fridays key USDA acreage and stocks report. Weekly US corn exports were 26 mil bi vs 63 ly. Season to date exports are near 716 mil bu vs 1,143 ly. USDA goal is 1,850 vs 2,471 ly. There was another 113 mt of US corn sold to unknown. There is more concern about late planting of the US 2023 corn crop. 3 week US Midwest forecast is wet. 52 pct of TX corn is planted vs 45 average. Planting is 95 pct done in LA, 14 in MS and 2 in AR. Brazil first crop corn harvest is 60 oct. 95 oct of safrina crop is planted. There is more concern about Ukraine export corridor deal, quality of Ukraine old crop corn export supplies and 2023 Ukraine crop size.
Wheat futures are mixed. From recent lows, KC is up 70 cents and Chicago and MLS are up 40 cents. Still dry in HRW south US plains and wet and cold in HRS north plains. USDA last est suggested that US farmers planted 36.9 million winter wheat acres in 2023 and most in eight years. 51 pct of US WW crop are in drought down 2 pct from last week. OK G/E is 34 vs 29 lw, TX is 18 vs 23 lw. CO is 28 vs 36 lw. NE is 22 vs 19 in Feb. IL 58 vs 82 in Feb. Matif wheat futures are higher. There is also net call buying of May and Sep futures on uncertainty of Russia export policy.
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