TOP HEADLINES
Worst Drought in 40 Years Puts Brazil’s Major Crops at Risk
- World’s top shipper sees threat for coffee, sugar and soybeans
- Dry weather to persist over crop areas in coming weeks
First came wildfires that scorched sugar cane fields. Now, the worst drought in more than four decades is threatening coffee and soybean crops in Brazil.
From May through August, some key agriculture areas faced the driest weather since 1981, according to natural disaster monitoring center Cemaden. And there is no relief in sight: there’s no rain in the forecast for at least two more weeks, a period when coffee trees usually flower and farmers start planting soy.
The lack of rainfall poses risks for global crop supplies in a world that’s become increasingly dependent on Brazil for everything from sugar to coffee and soybeans. Losses could amplify financial stress for Brazilian farmers already contending with a steep decline in prices.
“This is one of the worst droughts in the history of coffee,” said Regis Ricco, a director at RR Consultoria Rural, which provides agronomic services to several producers in the largest-growing areas of Brazil.
The long-lasting drought in areas that produce arabica coffee, the type favored by Starbucks Corp., likely will damage buds before trees can flower ahead of the next crop, according to Ricco. There hasn’t been any significant rain in arabica regions since March, he said.
Flowering is such a critical moment for coffee because they develop into the cherries that contain the beans. Arabica futures have already surged more than 30% this year, and crop losses in Brazil could add fuel to the rally.
“If there are issues with flowering, than there will be losses no matter what happens with the weather later on,” said StoneX analyst Fernando Maximiliano.
Wildfires that hit cane fields last week have already spurred London-based commodities trader Czarnikow Group Ltd. to revise down its forecast for Brazil’s sugar production for the current season. That’s a setback for a nation initially expected to gather a giant harvest.
As the weather remains dry and temperatures high, the top sugar cane-growing state of Sao Paulo is on alert for more wildfires this weekend.
Tractors and harvesters hurriedly harvest the burnt sugarcane following wildfires in Riberão Preto, Sao Paulo state, Brazil, on Tuesday, Aug. 27, 2024.
Regular showers that are typical of Brazil’s spring likely will be delayed to late October, said Rural Clima meteorologist Marco Antonio dos Santos.
Below-average rains expected for September and October could also drive farmers in Mato Grosso to postpone soybean sowing until better humidity, according to AgRural analyst Daniele Siqueira. Growers that choose to sow crops while soils are still dry may need replant.
Delays to soybeans could also push back other crops that usually go into the ground later in the year such as cotton and corn.
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are down 5 1/2 in SRW, down 8 in HRW, down 6 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 3/4; Soybeans down 1/4; Soymeal up $2.30; Soyoil down 0.96.
Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 21 in SRW, up 20 in HRW, up 26 in HRS; Corn is up 12 3/4; Soybeans up 19; Soymeal up $7.10; Soyoil up 0.30.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 5 1/2 in SRW, down 8 in HRW, down 6 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 3/4; Soybeans down 1/4; Soymeal up $2.70; Soyoil down 0.96.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 15.4% in SRW, down 13.9% in HRW, down 20.7% in HRS; Corn is down 19.9%; Soybeans down 23.5%; Soymeal down 19.7%; Soyoil down 11.2%.
Chinese Ag futures (NOV 24) Soybeans up 7 yuan; Soymeal up 40; Soyoil up 34; Palm oil up 30; Corn down 41 — Malaysian Palm is unchanged.
Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were unchanged ringgit () at 3933.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 424 SRW Wheat contracts; 6 Oats; 15 Corn; 10 Soybeans; 415 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 30 were: SRW Wheat up 190 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,272, Corn up 1,909, Soybeans up 11,247, Soymeal up 2,248, Soyoil down 3,310.
Northern Plains: It was dry and warm over the weekend, more favorable for spring wheat harvest. A front will move through Wednesday and bring some limited showers, but also a burst of cooler air that will last in the Dakotas through the weekend. Warmer temperatures in the west will eventually spread across the region next week. The heat in Montana could cause an increase in drought there.
Central/Southern Plains: A front settled down into Texas over the holiday weekend and brought widespread rainfall there as well as eliminating extensive heat. Showers will continue in Texas the next couple of days. Another front will pass through Thursday and Friday. It will bring some limited showers but also a burst of cooler air that will last through the weekend. Temperatures should rise gradually next week. Some drier areas in the region will not get needed rainfall, but much of the crop is now maturing and the lack of rainfall is not causing much of an issue with corn or soybeans. Soils would enjoy some more rainfall prior to winter wheat planting, however.
Midwest: A front cleared the region on Saturday. Scattered showers occurred, but some areas missed out on the rainfall and have been too dry at the end of the growing season for filling corn and soybeans. For the crop that is further along, the conditions have been pushing the crop toward maturity. For those further behind, the lack of rainfall will cause a drop in yields. Temperatures will not be stressful at least for the next week. A front will move through Thursday and Friday with scattered showers that are not forecast to be widespread heavy. But it will bring in another burst of cooler air. Lows may drop below 40 degrees in some areas this weekend, but frosts are not forecast to occur in any significant way. Temperatures will gradually rise next week.
Delta: A front moved through the region over the holiday weekend and brought scattered showers and some areas of needed rain. Others were not as lucky, but temperatures have turned down closer to normal. A front will be in the area this week, but precipitation is forecast to be more prevalent near the Gulf than for the rest of the region. Another front will move through Friday and Saturday and could bring some additional showers and another burst of cool air. Soil moisture is still low despite recent rainfall, however.
Southeast: A front brought limited showers into the region over the holiday weekend. The front will continue to produce showers, but will be more prevalent near the Gulf Coast than further inland where they would be more helpful. A front will additional showers through on Saturday as well as a burst of cooler air. Soil moisture has been low in Alabama and Georgia for a while, but it is drying out in the Carolinas as well. Crops are further along here and the lack of more moisture will not have a huge impact on the remaining crop.
Canadian Prairies: It was warm and dry over the weekend, favorable conditions for the continued wheat and canola harvest. A front will sweep through the region on Tuesday with some showers possibly continuing into Wednesday. A burst of cooler air will move through as well but will be brief with temperatures rising over the weekend.
Brazil: Much of the country is extremely dry to start off planting season. A front brought limited showers to Rio Grande do Sul over the weekend, where soil moisture is better. Another front will move in with showers for Wednesday and Thursday for southern Brazil. In some areas, the rain will be beneficial, in others it will be too light. Rain is not forecast to make it into central Brazil which would need some rain prior to the wet season rains for planting to begin on time later this month.
Argentina: The country is very dry for developing wheat and too dry for corn planting in most areas. A front brought scattered showers to Buenos Aires over the weekend, but not much to anywhere else. Another front will move through this week, but rainfall is forecast to only occur over the north on Wednesday. A quick burst of cool air will move through as well but warm up over the weekend into next week. The dryness continues well into next week, however, unfavorable for wheat or corn.
Europe: A front brought scattered showers into western countries over the weekend and the system remains in these areas for much of the week. The rainfall will not be good for any remaining wheat harvest or drydown for corn. Eastern areas are very warm and largely dry this week, fine for summer crops, but not for thinking about early planting for winter crops.
Black Sea: Weakness in the Black Sea has brought very limited showers to the far south over the last week and continues the rest of this week as well. It is largely too late for filling corn and sunflowers, which have gone through extensive drought this year.
Australia: Limited showers went through the far southeast over the weekend, but it was largely dry. Several systems moving through the Southern Ocean this week and next will skirt some showers through southern areas but will not bring much rain to New South Wales or Queensland, where some drier soils are. Heat in these areas will instead be an issue with the lower soil moisture.
The player sheet for Aug. 30 had funds: net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 8,500 corn, buyers of 5,500 soybeans, buyers of 1,500 soymeal, and sellers of 1,500 soyoil.
TENDERS
- SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 132,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery in the 2024-25 marketing year that begins Sept. 1.
- SOYBEAN CAKE AND MEAL SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 100,000 metric tons of U.S. soybean cake and meal to Colombia for delivery in the 2024-25 marketing year that begins Sept. 1.
- CORN SALE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from Brazil in an international tender held on Friday.
PENDING TENDERS
- CORN, BARLEY TENDERS: Algerian state agency ONAB has issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 35,000 tons of feed barley
- RICE TENDER: Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog issued an international tender to buy about 350,000 metric tons of rice.
- FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
TODAY
Brazil 2024/25 Soybean Crop Seen At 165.04 Million Tns – StoneX
- BRAZIL 2024/25 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT 165.04 MILLION TNS VERSUS 165.04 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST
- BRAZIL 2024/25 FIRST CORN CROP SEEN AT 24.96 MILLION TNS VERSUS 24.96 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST
- STONEX SAYS BRAZIL FARMERS WILL FACE DIFFICULTIES TO START PLANTING 2024/25 SOYBEAN CROP DUE TO DRY WEATHER
Brazil 2024/25 Soybean Crop Seen At 169.9 Million Tns Versus – Celeres
- BRAZIL 2024/25 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT 169.9 MILLION TNS VERSUS 152 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS SEASON
- BRAZIL 2024/25 TOTAL CORN OUTPUT SEEN AT 134.1 MILLION TNS VERSUS 129.2 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS SEASON
- BRAZIL 2024/25 SOYBEAN EXPORTS SEEN AT 107 MILLION TNS VERSUS 97 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS SEASON
- BRAZIL 2024/25 CORN EXPORTS SEEN AT 51 MILLION TNS VERSUS 43 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS SEASON
SovEcon Cuts Russia Wheat Crop Forecast to 82.5m Tons
Consultant SovEcon cut its Russia wheat crop forecast for the 2024 season to 82.5m tons from a previous estimate of 83.3m tons, it said in an email.
- Cites “lower-than-expected yields in some Central and Volga Valley regions”
- Despite reductions, it says “starting yields in Siberia and the Urals confirm a good crop outlook”
Ukraine Harvests 28.7M Tons of Grain, Almost on Par With 2023
Ukraine harvested 28.7 million tons of grain so far, compared with 29.2 million tons this time last year, and has started harvesting corn, Agriculture Ministry says on website.
- The total includes:
- 21.8m tons of wheat vs 22.1m tons year earlier
- 5.5m tons of barley vs 5.8m tons in 2023
- Corn harvesting just started in central Poltava and Cherkasy regions
- Separately 4.2m tons of oilseeds were harvested, including:
- 419,400 tons of sunflower vs 49,400 last year
- 3.4m tons of rapeseed vs 4m tons
- 381,800 tons of soybeans 30,600 tons
Ukraine Grain Exports Rise 63% to 7M Tons Since Start of Season
Ukraine’s grain exports increased to 7m tons in the current season from June 1, compared with 4.3m tons for the same period a year ago, the Agriculture Ministry says on its website.
- Increase was helped by helped by wheat and barley shipments
- Total export includes:
- 3.6m tons of wheat, up 89% y/y
- 1.1m tons of barley, more than a double increase from 473,000 tons last year
- 2.27m tons of corn, up 13.5% y/y
Ukraine Resumes Agreements on Wheat-Export Targets With Traders
Ukrainian Agriculture Ministry resumed agreements with grain traders on targeted amount of wheat exports, it says on website.
- Government and traders on Tuesday signed addendum to memorandum signed in July on wheat export target of 16.2m tons for 2024/2025 season
- Sides agreed to monitor export volumes on monthly basis and to adjust the target if needed
- NOTE: Ukraine has been signing deals with traders on targeted amounts of wheat exports since 2011 to ease concerns about adequate domestic supply. However, there were exceptions in 2022 and 2023, when outbound shipments were slowed by Russian invasion and security risks at Ukrainian Black Sea ports
Brazil C-S Summer Corn Planting at 8% as of Aug. 29: AgRural
Compares with 4% a week earlier and 13% a year before, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.
Besides Rio Grande do Sul state, Santa Catarina and Parana have also started planting
The progress of sowing was not greater due to still irregular humidity and very low minimum temperatures recorded at beginning of last week
CORN/CEPEA: Demand to export increases and boosts values at ports
The demand for corn to export was higher over the last days. This scenario and increases of dollar quotations and international prices sustained values at ports. In Paranaguá (PR) and Santos (SP), quotations rose 2.3% and 1.6% from Aug. 22-29. The US dollar moved up 0.5% in the same comparison, closing at BRL 5.619 on Aug. 29.
As for exports, continue to move at a slower pace compared to that verified last year. In the partial of August (up to the end of the last week), Brazil shipped 4.6 million tons. The daily pace is at 270.75 thousand tons, 33% smaller than in August last year, and if this pace continues, Brazil is likely to ship only 5.95 million tons this month (in the same period last year, the total was 9.36 million tons) – data from Secex.
Shipments are likely to increase in the next weeks, reducing the domestic supply – although the 2023/24 production is smaller, the domestic surplus is considered high.
However, the significant gap between domestic and international prices can limit trades at ports and, consequently, increases in local values.
SPOT MARKET – Corn prices have been firm this week, influenced by the fact that some sellers are away from closing deals, focusing on increases at ports and on the possible price transference to the domestic market.
The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) moved up 0.2% between August 22 and 29, closing at BRL 60.27 per 60-kilo bag on Aug. 29. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, corn values increased 1.1% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 0.4% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) in the same period.
CROPS – According to Conab, the harvesting in Brazil reached 97.9% of the area until August 25, moving up 13.9 percentage points compared to one year ago. In São Paulo, Goiás and Minas Gerais, activities hit 87%, 98% and 95% of the total – data from Conab.
PROJECTIONS – Seab/Deral estimates that the 2024/25 summer crop area may total only 270 thousand hectares, 10% less than in the season before. However, the higher productivity may increase production by 6%, to 2.7 million tons.
In Rio Grande do Sul, the area is likely to total 748.51 thousand hectares, for a decrease of 7.5% compared to the season before, but the productivity increase (+26%) can lead to a production of 5.32 million tons (+18% in relation to 2023/24).
SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Firm demand from China and international rises keep prices high in Brazil
The firm demand from China and international price increases have kept export premiums and values high in Brazil. Moreover, part of soybean growers continues away from trading the product left from the 2023/24 season, focusing on weather conditions to start planting the new crop. The soil moist is low in major producing areas and there are no rain forecasts in the short-term, which can delay the beginning of 2024/25 activities.
Embrapa says that the host-free period will finish on August 31st in the north and west of Paraná and in the central-south of São Paulo. Therefore, producers may start crop activities from September 1st onwards.
From August 22-29, the US dollar rose 0.5% against Real, closing at BRL 5.619 on Aug. 29. The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Paranaguá) increased 2.9% from August 22-29, closing at BRL 134.93 per 60-kg bag on August 29. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) upped 3.3% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 131.30 per 60-kg bag yesterday.
Concerning the monthly average in August, both price Indexes hit the lowest levels since April this year, in real terms (IGP-DI July/24). As for the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Paranaguá), the average in August is at BRl 132.98/bag up to Aug. 29, downing 3.7% compared to July and 14% less than in Aug/23. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) has averaged BRL 129.00/bag this month, decreasing 3.4% in one month and 11.4% in one year.
On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) moved up 3.6% from August 22-29. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), quotations rose 2.2%.
SOYBEAN MEAL – Values were sustained by price increases of soybean both in Brazil and in the US. However, liquidity was low, since consumers are away from closing trades. On the average of regions surveyed by Cepea, soybean meal prices upped 0.6% between Aug. 22 and 29.
SOYBEAN OIL – Prices continue high due to the firm demand for the biodiesel production in Brazil. Soy oil quotations increased 1% between Aug. 22 and 29, at BRL 6,357.60 per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on August 29.
WHEAT/CEPEA: Harvesting starts to gain pace in Paraná; productivity concerns
The harvesting of the new wheat crop is starting to gain pace in Paraná, the biggest producer in Brazil; however, both productivity and quality have been below that expected by producers.
Data from Seab/Deral indicate that 6% of the area has been harvested in Paraná so far, and productivity is below 2 tons per hectare. This scenario is linked to unfavorable weather conditions (heavy frosts close to the harvesting) in Paraná state. Thus, producers continue focused on the performance and on the quality of the new crop.
In Rio Grande do Sul, Emater/RS-Ascar (Credit and Rural Assistance Association) indicates that crops have been developing well. The rainfall at the beginning of last week favored plants as the soil moist improved. Frosts hit crops, but without significant impacts. In São Paulo, Conab says that the harvesting has reached 5% of the area, and farmers indicate that the dry weather has affected the productivity.
TRADES – Players from mills are showing little interest to close new deals, since they are focused on the harvesting and that there are new batches entering the spot market. Moreover, the quality is still below that wanted by purchasers, leading some sellers to offer lower values. This scenario keeps prices low, and the market is moving at a slow pace.
According to data from Cepea, between August 23 and 30, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) rose 0.28% in Rio Grande do Sul, but dropped 0.1% in Santa Catarina, remaining stable in Paraná. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), quotations decreased 2.3% in Rio Grande do Sul and 2% in Paraná, being stable in Santa Catarina, and upping 0.73% in São Paulo. Dollar quotations increased 3.16% against Real in the same period, at BRL 5.65 on August 30.
In August, the monthly average of wheat prices in Paraná was BRL 1,538.62 per ton, downing 0.4% against July/24, but increasing 21.9% in relation to that in August/23, in real terms (IGP-DI). In Rio Grande do Sul, the average was BRL 1,429.85/ton, 2.6% down in one month and +11.5% in one year. In São Paulo, prices averaged BRL 1.592.46/ton, -0.3% and +24% in the same comparisons. As for Santa Catarina, the average was BRL 1,508.36/ton in August, for a decrease of 0.2% compared to July, but upping 9.4% against that in the same month last year.
BYPRODUCTS – From August 26-30, values of wheat bran in bags moved up 1.26% and 1.38% for the product in bulk.
Argentina’s grain export revenue up 40% in August
Argentina’s grain exporters brought in a total $2.451 billion in August, a 40% increase compared to the previous year, the CIARA-CEC chamber of oilseed producers and grains exporters said on Monday.
CIARA-CEC said revenues from the sector’s companies fell 6% compared to July. In the January-August period, there was a 9.4% increase.
“The export of grains and soy oil industry products continues to be conditioned to a moderate pace of sales and fixings,” CIARA-CEC said in a statement.
It added that foreign currency income in August was the result of the new foreign-exchange regime for exports in force since December 2023, when libertarian President Javier Milei took office pledging to improve the outlook for farmers.
CIARA-CEC also mentioned the impact of the weather on the pace of the corn and soybean harvests as well as favorable terms of trade.
Argentina is one of the world’s top two exporters of processed soy oil and meal, the No. 3 for corn, and a major producer of wheat. Soybean meal is the country’s top export, accounting for 12% of the total.
Argentine soy, corn exports bounce back despite lower US prices
Argentine shipments of corn and soybeans, two major exports for the agricultural powerhouse, have bounced back so far this season, the Rosario grains exchange said on Friday, despite a leafhopper plague and lower U.S. demand weighing on prices.
Corn shipments are up 34% and soybean shipments up 67% for the first six months of the season compared to a year ago, the exchange said in a report. The value of exports, however, rose only 5% for corn to $4.07 billion and were up 39% for soy to $8.98 billion.
Halfway through the current corn season, Rosario expects the corn harvest up 36% at 49 million metric tons. Exports in the first half of the season neared 20 million tons, it said, 5.1 million tons more than this time last year.
August corn exports however hit their lowest volumes in almost a decade, largely due a spiroplasma plague affecting late-season harvests, spread by leafhopper insects.
Soybean production is meanwhile up 150% compared to the previous season, which produced the lowest crop this century amid a severe drought. Exports reached 19.7 million tons so far this season, 8% higher than the five-year average.
Even so, soy prices were down some 25% while corn slid 20% from the previous year.
Rosario pointed to higher-than-usual production in the United States which has caused prices of key crops in the Chicago market to hit four-year lows, although a recent Midwestern heatwave sparked concerns that shored up prices.
Argentina’s largest corn contract closed on Thursday at $156 per ton, with soybean settling at $364.7 per ton, Rosario said.
The exchange also flagged lower water levels in the Parana river, which runs by the port of Rosario and is used to ship out grains. These reached just half a meter in the last few months, the lowest level in 19 months and down from nearly 5 meters at the start of this year.
“Projections indicate that there will be no recovery in the river height at the Rosario hydrometer in the coming months,” it said.
Argentina rains to give welcome boost to imminent corn planting
Rainfall in Argentina at the weekend is expected to boost the 2024/25 corn crop as farmers begin planting this month, the Rosario grains exchange said in a report published on Monday.
As much as 50 millimeters (2 inches) of rain fell in some areas of the country’s core farmland, with showers particularly benefiting the north of Buenos Aires province and the southern part of Santa Fe province.
Argentina is a major global grains supplier. Proceeds from sales of corn, wheat and processed soybeans are key to bulking up foreign currency reserves in central bank coffers, which are needed to pay down debt and finance imports in the South American nation.
The report comes amid news that local farmers are slated to plant less of the crop in the 2024/2025 season due to fears that the leafhopper insect could again harm the corn crop.
However, “the accumulated rainfall has significantly spurred intentions to add new plots to the corn campaign,” the report said.
Last month, the exchange estimated that the area dedicated to corn in the new season will fall by about a fifth compared to the previous campaign, dropping to 7.67 million hectares.
The exchange forecasts that the 2024/25 corn harvest will yield 49 million metric tons.
India Predicts Ample Monsoon Rain Next Month in Boost to Crops
- Precipitation seen more than 109% of long-term average
- Some areas at high risk of extremely heavy rainfall, floods
India is forecast to receive above-normal rains in the last month of the June-September monsoon season, brightening prospects for a bumper harvest for crops such as rice and soybeans.
Precipitation is expected to be more than 109% of the long-term average of 167.9 millimeters (6.6 inches), Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the India Meteorological Department, said at a briefing in New Delhi on Saturday.
Good soil moisture in the coming weeks is vital for farm output and economic growth in the world’s most populous nation, where hundreds of millions people rely on farming for their livelihoods. Higher supplies may bring down food inflation, which climbed 5.4% in July from a year earlier, and prompt the government to ease restrictions on rice and sugar exports.
Bountiful rainfall in September will also increase water levels in major reservoirs, setting the stage for good winter crops, such as wheat and rapeseed.
However, some areas of the country also face the risk of extremely heavy rainfall and floods. The South Asian nation is increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather events due to climate change, including more frequent floods, cyclones, droughts, and heat waves. Hundreds of people have lost their lives this season due to floods and landslides.
Indonesia Sets CPO Reference Price at $839.53/Ton for Sept.
Indonesia’s trade ministry sets crude palm oil reference price for Sept. at $839.53 a ton, according to a decree posted on its website.
- As a result, the CPO export tax for the period will be raised to $52/ton, while the additional levy will be raised to $90/ton
Australia Raises 2024-25 Wheat Crop Outlook on Better Weather
Australia’s wheat production in the 2024-25 season is now seen at 31.8m metric tons, about 9% above the prior estimate in June, according to a report by the Australia Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences.
- That’s up about 23% y/y and 20% above the 10-year average to 2023–24
- If realized, it will be the fourth-highest wheat harvest on record
- Reflects improved seasonal conditions in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia during cropping season, although prospects are less favorable in South Australia and Victoria
- Australian wheat prices are expected to ease in line with falling international prices, reflecting improving global supplies and subdued demand
- Value of Australian wheat exports forecast to fall 18% y/y to A$8.1b
- Export volume seen at 20.9m tons, down 7% y/y
- Domestic stockpiles are likely to climb
- Other crop outlooks for 2024-25:
- Barley crop now seen at 12.2m tons, up from June outlook for 11.5m tons
- Canola forecast is little changed at 5.5m tons
US Pork Production Falls 3.2% This Week, Beef Rises: USDA
US federally inspected pork production falls to 510m pounds for the week ending Aug. 31 from 526m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.
- Hog slaughter down 3% from a week ago to 2.429m head
- Beef production up 0.8% from a week ago, cattle slaughter rises 0.5%
- For the year, beef production is 1.2% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 1.6% above
Tampa Ammonia Price Rises 11.6%
U.S. ammonia prices, represented by spot prices for Tampa CFR Ammonia, rose 11.6% to $530 per metric ton in the week ended Aug. 30, according to Green Markets data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
- Tampa Ammonia rose 11.6% during the last month and was up 17.8% during the last 3 months
- All major Ammonia nitrogen benchmark prices rose while Tampa Ammonia rose the most during the last week
- Shares of CF Industries Holdings Inc. and Yara International ASA were up, while Nutrien Ltd. was down in the latest week
- Major UAN nitrogen benchmark prices were mixed
- Major Urea nitrogen benchmark prices were mixed
- Natural gas, which drives producer costs, has decreased 3.1% during the last week and was down 5.9% during the last month
- The price of corn, a driver of fertilizer purchases, increased 2.3% during the last week and was down 1.2% during the last month
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
Latest News & Market Commentary
ADM & Industry News
The Ghost in the Machine Q3 2024
October 8, 2024
ADM and Farmers Business Network® Launch Gradable JV
August 20, 2024