Global Ag News for Sept 24.24

TOP HEADLINES

US Bill Would Bar Tax Credit From Fuels From Foreign Ingredients

A group of Republican and Democratic US lawmakers unveiled legislation that would ensure only biofuels made from domestically sourced ingredients are eligible for the so-called 45Z tax credit.

The bill, dubbed the Farmer First Fuel Incentives Act, also would extend the two-year credit to 10 years, according to a statement from bill sponsor Senator Roger Marshall, a Kansas Republican

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 in SRW, down 4 1/2 in HRW, down 5 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/4; Soybeans down 7 3/4; Soymeal down $2.70; Soyoil down 0.07.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 7 1/2 in SRW, up 2 1/2 in HRW, down 2 in HRS; Corn is up 7 3/4; Soybeans up 22 1/2; Soymeal up $4.00; Soyoil up 1.91.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 24 1/2 in SRW, up 1 1/4 in HRW, up 5 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 8 1/2; Soybeans up 34 1/2; Soymeal up $10.20; Soyoil up 1.26.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 8.3% in SRW, down 11.8% in HRW, down 16.2% in HRS; Corn is down 13.1%; Soybeans down 20.0%; Soymeal down 16.8%; Soyoil down 8.4%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 24) Soybeans up 10 yuan; Soymeal unchanged; Soyoil up 82; Palm oil up 108; Corn up 12 — Malaysian Palm is up 56.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 56 ringgit (+1.40%) at 4044.

There were changes in registrations (-1 Soyoil). Registration total: 220 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 126 Corn; 232 Soybeans; 352 Soyoil; 126 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 24 were: SRW Wheat up 1,714 contracts, HRW Wheat up 3,304, Corn up 12,804, Soybeans down 2,104, Soymeal down 9,119, Soyoil down 5,322.

 

Northern Plains: A few showers moved through Monday, but the region should be dry through the weekend, favorable for maturing crops. Some areas that are further behind would like to see some rain, however, and may find it with a front moving through early next week. After being milder this past weekend, temperatures will be warmer this week.

Central/Southern Plains: A stalled front and a system forming along it produced areas of heavy rain from the northern Texas Panhandle into southeast Kansas with more limited showers elsewhere this weekend. An upper-level low is moving into the region Tuesday and will get stuck in the east, producing periods of showers, possibly into next week. The low will interact with a hurricane later this week and the forecast could be erratic. Temperatures will be more mild with the upper low moving in, but rise this weekend as it drifts east.

 Midwest: A front brought widespread showers and some areas of heavy rain the last few days. A low-pressure center on it will move through Tuesday with scattered showers. An upper-level low stalling to the southwest will bring a hurricane up into the Southeast and it could get farther north into the region this weekend with scattered showers most likely for southern areas, though it could be more widespread depending on how the two interact. A front should push the lows out early next week and could have some showers of its own. Harvest could be impacted by rain, though winter wheat areas would like to see the increased moisture.

Delta: An upper-level low will stall out in the region Tuesday and pull up a hurricane later this week, which may bring in periods of heavy rain depending on how the two interact. The two lows will spin around into early next week before getting pushed eastward, and several days of rain will be possible. Any more bouts of heavy rain could further degrade quality of soybeans and cotton in the region, but would aid water levels on the Mississippi River.

Southeast: A front will move into the region Wednesday and a hurricane is forecast to move north late on Thursday. Though it should quickly dissipate from hurricane status as it moves northward, the remnant low and another upper-level low will spin around just off to the west for several days afterward, which could keep showers in the region into next week before getting pushed eastward. Heavy rain would likely degrade the remaining crop in the field and North Carolina is especially vulnerable as it has been pummeled with heavy rainfall lately and would not benefit from any more.

Canadian Prairies: A system moved through the region this weekend with widespread showers. A couple of little disturbances will move through this week and weekend, but potential for significant rainfall is low. Heavy rain from last week probably caused delays to the remaining harvest, however.

Brazil: A front brought scattered showers to southern states this weekend and another has stalled over the far south early this week. Showers will finally move northward later in the week but dissipate as it does so. The recent rainfall has been good for increasing soil moisture for spring planting, but some areas are still very dry. Spotty wet season showers will start in central Brazil and Mato Grosso especially by the weekend. However, with how hot and dry it has been over the last several months, producers will likely wait longer to start planting when the showers become more consistent later in October. If they have to wait too long, it could cause significant issues for the coming safrinha corn and cotton crops.

Argentina: A front moved into the country over the weekend, but showers were largely relegated to eastern Buenos Aires, an area that has good soil moisture. Drought farther west and north has delayed corn planting and been damaging to developing to reproductive winter wheat. That front has gotten stuck in northern areas, where showers may continue in the northeast through Thursday, but most areas will stay dry. The next significant system would not come until early next week, but rainfall is currently forecast to remain spotty.

Black Sea: Western areas have adequate soil moisture, but the majority of eastern Ukraine and western Russia have endured heat and drought for several months, creating very poor conditions for winter wheat planting and establishment. A front will move into western areas Wednesday with another over the weekend, but they may not produce much precipitation and fizzle out before reaching eastern areas. Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions continue to be unfavorable for wheat, which has a limited time before frosts and freezes start to become more likely in October.

Australia: It has been overall dry lately, unfavorable for vegetative to reproductive wheat and canola. A system will try to spread rainfall over eastern areas the next few days, which is needed. The system will bring through some cold air though and could cause frosts across the southeast, where crops are less developed but still vulnerable. Another system will pass through western areas with showers late week. The front to that system may or may not bring much precipitation to eastern areas this weekend.

 

The player sheet for Sept. 24 had funds: net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,500 corn, sellers of 6,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and buyers of 6,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

  • WHEAT PURCHASE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from Brazil in an international tender on Wednesday
  • WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 112,580 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close on Sept. 26.
  • WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: Jordan’s state grain buyer made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

 PENDING TENDERS

  • BARLEY TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued an international tender to buy at least 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
  • BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

interconnected globe

 

TODAY

CROP SURVEY: US Corn Stockpiles Seen Up 36% From Last Year

US corn stocks seen at 1.85b bu as of Sept. 1, an increase of 36% compared to the same period last year, according to the avg estimate of as many as 21 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

  • USDA is scheduled to release its quarterly Grain Stocks report and Small Grains report at noon ET on Sept. 30
  • Soybean stocks seen at 347m bu, up 31% from Sept. 2023
  • Wheat stocks seen rising by 13% y/y
  • 2024 wheat production seen at 1.98b bu, mostly unchanged from USDA’s August est.

 

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Sept. 20 are based on eight analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

  • Production seen lower than last week at 1.046m b/d
  • Stockpile avg est. 23.896m bbl vs 23.785m a week ago

 

Vancouver Port’s Grain Workers Strike in Midst of Harvest Season

Grain workers at Canada’s biggest port went on strike Tuesday over a dispute regarding hours and pay, setting up what an industry association called a “devastating” situation for farmers during the harvest season.

The Grain Workers Union Local 333 served a 72-hour strike notice on Saturday, and the measure took effect at 7 a.m. Pacific Time on Tuesday after talks with the Vancouver Terminal Elevator Association fell through.

Vancouver handled about 52% of grain produced across Canada last year, according to the Grain Growers of Canada trade group, which is calling on the federal labor minister to step in and ensure the parties reach an agreement. The stoppage could prevent about 100,000 metric tonnes of grain from arriving at the port’s shipping terminals each day, meaning a potential loss of C$35 million ($26 million) daily, the association said, citing Canadian Grain Commission estimates.

“Without intervention, Canada’s international trading reputation will continue to suffer, leading to the loss of key global markets and customers,” the Grain Growers group said.

Tuesday’s walkout follows recent industrial disputes across the country involving rail workers, port workers and airline workers.

“There will be limited ability to mitigate the impacts of the strike through other corridors” for grain headed to markets over the Pacific Ocean, Wade Sobkowich, from the Western Grain Elevator Association, said by email. “Once again, Canada is unable to get product to our customers just like in the recent rail strike, St. Lawrence Seaway strike and BC longshore strike.”

The local grain workers union has more than 750 members, according to its website. Affected operations include Viterra Inc.’s Cascadia and Pacific Terminals, the Richardson International Terminal, the Cargill Limited Terminal, the G3 Terminal Vancouver and the Alliance Grain Terminal, according to the Shipping Federation of Canada.

 

Argentina grains exports could hit four-year high in 2024/25 season, exchange says

Grains and oilseed output in Argentina could reach up to 143 million metric tons in the 2024/25 season under normal weather conditions, which could boost exports to their highest volume in four years, the Rosario grains exchange said on Tuesday,

Given normal conditions, exports of the country’s soy, corn, wheat and other crops could rise to 101.5 million tons, the exchange said in a since the 2020/21 season.

Argentina, the top global exporter of soybean oil and flour and a major corn supplier, could however reap a total harvest as low as 128.8 million tons if there is not enough rain, it added.

For now, soil moisture conditions are adequate in Argentina’s agricultural core, but the country’s western and northern agricultural fields are in urgent need of rainfall.  Soybean planting is due to begin next month, while producers began planting corn in recent weeks.

 

Ukraine grain exports rise 58.7% so far 2024/25, ministry data show

Ukraine’s grain exports in the 2024/25 July-June season stood at close to 9.8 million metric tons as of Sept. 25 versus almost 6.2 million tons a season earlier, agriculture ministry data showed on Wednesday.

The volume included 5.6 million tons of wheat, 2.7 million tons of corn and almost 1.3 million tons of barley.

Ukrainian government and farm associations have agreed to limit wheat exports in the 2024/25 July-June season to 16.2 million tons. There are no curbs on exports of other commodities.

The first deputy farm minister said last week that Ukraine would halt wheat exports if the volume of shipments exceeds the agreed figure.

Traders have exported 2.3 million tons of grain so far in September, the ministry said. Exports totalled 1.57 million tons over Sept. 1-25 last year. The 2024 combined grain and oilseed crop is expected to fall to 77 million tons, including 56 million tons of grain, the ministry has said. Ukraine’s grain exports in the 2023/24 marketing season rose to about 51 million tons from 49.2 million tons the previous year.

 

Indonesia July Palm Oil Exports 2.241m Tons: Gapki

Indonesia’s palm oil exports were 2.241m tons in July, according to Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki).

  • Palm oil output was 3.961m tons
  • Palm oil stockpiles was 2.513m tons
  • Palm oil domestic consumption was 2.030m tons

 

China to buy up to 37 mln tons of local wheat at minimum price, unchanged from yr ago

China has set a 37 million metric ton per year maximum purchase volume for wheat purchases at the minimum price in 2025 and 2026, the state planner said in a notice issued on Tuesday, similar to the quantity set last year.

China buys wheat from farmers at the minimum price when the market price drops below that level in order to support food production.

It set the minimum purchase price for third-grade wheat produced in 2025 and 2026 at 119 yuan ($16.92) per 50 kilograms, equal to 2,380 yuan per metric ton, the National Development and Reform Commission said in a separate notice. For 2024, the minimum price was 118 yuan per 50 kg.

China’s wheat imports have climbed in recent years but the country’s buying spree is likely to slow in the second half of 2024 as higher domestic output and declining flour consumption reduce import demand in the world biggest consumer of the grain.  ($1 = 7.0336 Chinese yuan renminbi)

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 5.82 Million Tns In September – Anec

  • BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 5.82 MILLION TNS IN SEPTEMBER VERSUS 5.83 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
  • BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.97 MILLION TNS IN SEPTEMBER VERSUS 2.02 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
  • BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 6.68 MILLION TNS IN SEPTEMBER VERSUS 6.63 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

 

Viterra Agrees to Buy Some Cargill Grain Assets in Australia

Deal involves storage and handling facilities held by GrainFlow, a Cargill subsidiary, in South Australia and Victoria as well as a mobile ship loader in Adelaide, Viterra said in a statement.

  • Terms of the deal weren’t disclosed
  • Viterra has plans to make “significant” investments in the operations as part of a broader push to boost grain rail transportation during the first half of the year
  • Cargill will continue to be able to purchase grain from growers near sold facilities through a long-term access agreement with Viterra
  • Acquisition is expected to close the first half of 2025, pending regulatory approval

 

 

 

 

 

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