Global Ag News for Oct 8.24

TOP HEADLINES

EU Lawmakers Agree to Fast Track Delay to Deforestation Law

EU representatives from the main political groups in parliament agreed to send a proposal to delay the bloc’s landmark deforestation law straight to the wider parliament, skipping the usual committee stage.

• A vote on the delay will now most likely take place some time in November after group coordinators from the environment committee agreed Monday evening to an urgent procedure, a spokesman for the parliament says
• NOTE: EU member states have not yet agreed on how to handle the proposed one-year delay from the original Dec. 30 start date, but will discuss the issue Wednesday
• If parliament and member states both agree to not pass additional amendments, the delay can be quickly agreed

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3 in SRW, down 3 1/4 in HRW, down 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 3 3/4; Soybeans down 16; Soymeal down $2.60; Soyoil down 1.00.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 2 1/2 in SRW, up 4 3/4 in HRW, up 7 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans down 14 3/4; Soymeal down $7.40; Soyoil down 0.32.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 5 1/2 in SRW, up 16 1/4 in HRW, up 21 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/2; Soybeans down 39; Soymeal down $20.20; Soyoil up 0.26.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 5.7% in SRW, down 6.1% in HRW, down 10.8% in HRS; Corn is down 10.1%; Soybeans down 20.9%; Soymeal down 16.1%; Soyoil down 6.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 24) Soybeans down 149 yuan; Soymeal down 75; Soyoil up 178; Palm oil up 340; Corn down 12 — Malaysian Palm is down 72.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 72 ringgit (-1.66%) at 4271.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 220 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 126 Corn; 232 Soybeans; 352 Soyoil; 126 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 4 were: SRW Wheat up 2,346 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,929, Corn down 19,372, Soybeans up 13,473, Soymeal up 1,671, Soyoil up 765.

 

Brazil: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana:  Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias:  Isolated showers Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Friday. 

Argentina: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires:  Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires:  Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday. 

Northern Plains: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday-Wednesday. 

Central/Southern Plains: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday-Wednesday. 

Midwest: West: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above to well above normal Wednesday-Friday. East: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers east Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday, above normal west and below normal east Tuesday-Wednesday.

 

The player sheet for Oct. 7 had funds: net buyers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 2,000 corn, buyers of 1,000 soybeans, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 4,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Saudi Arabia purchased 307,000 metric tons of wheat in a tender for arrival between December and January, the GFSA state buying agency said.
• CORN PURCHASE: Algerian state agency ONAB is believed to have bought an unknown volume of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from Argentina or Brazil in an international tender for up to 320,000 metric tons that closed on Thursday
• CORN, SOYBEAN SALES: Exporters sold 155,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico and 172,500 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its daily reporting system.
• SOYMEAL PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) purchased around 60,000 metric tons of soymeal on Friday
• CORN, BARLEY TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 120,000 tons of feed barley
• BARLEY TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 125,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat. 

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 115,050 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on Thursday.

 

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 933k Tons of Corn for Export, 1.431m of Soybeans

In week ending Oct. 3, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 1,431k tons vs 683k the previous wk, 1,404k a yr ago
• Wheat: 363k tons vs 551k the previous wk, 306k a yr ago
• Corn: 933k tons vs 1,150k the previous wk, 804k a yr ago

 

Brazil 2024/25 Soybean Planting 4.5% Done as of Oct. 3: Agrural

Compares with 2% a week earlier and 10% a year before, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.

• Summer corn planting reached 37% of the estimated area for the Center-South of Brazil, compared to 30% in the previous week and in line with the index from a year ago
• Weather conditions favor planting and crop development in the southern states, where work is still concentrated
  • Last week, however, some irrigated areas began to be sown in Minas Gerais state

 

Brazil 2024/25 Early Soy Sales 24.8% Done as of Oct. 4: Safras

That compares with 21.4% a year earlier and average of 29.4% for the period, according to an emailed report from consulting firm Safras & Mercado.

• Sales are equivalent to 42.58m tons, considering an estimated production of 171.78m tons
  • In the previous report, sales were at 22.5%
• For the 2023/24 season, sales are at 87.7%, compared with 82.2% in Sept. 6 report
  • Sales were at 84.9% a year earlier; 5-year average is 90.1%

 

Brazil’s C-S Winter Corn Crop Sales 59% Completed: Safras

Sales of the winter corn crop in Brazil’s Center-South region compares with 59.9% a year earlier and a five-year average of 67.4%, according to a report from Safras& Mercado consulting firm.

 

Brazil 2024/25 Wheat Crop Seen At 7.89 Million Tns – StoneX

BRAZIL 2024/25 WHEAT CROP SEEN AT 7.89 MILLION TNS VERSUS 8.09 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – STONEX

 

Brazil’s Parana state soybean planting ahead of last year’s pace

The 2024-2025 soybean planting season in Brazil’s southern Parana state is advancing at a rapid pace, surpassing last year’s progress, Argus reported.

According to the state’s Department of Rural Economics (Deral), soybean planting reached 22% of the expected sowed area in the week ending September 30, a 12-percentage point increase from the previous week. This progress is two percentage points ahead of the 2023-2024 cycle at the same time last year.

Recent rainfall in the state has favoured field work, contributing to the accelerated planting rate.

Crop conditions remain stable, with 100% of areas considered to be in good condition.

Summer corn planting has also made significant progress, reaching 74% of the expected area as of 30 September, representing a 14-percentage point increase from the prior week.

However, summer corn planting is still behind last year’s pace, which was at 82% at the same time. Crop conditions for summer corn remain strong, with 96% of areas rated in good quality and the remaining 4% in medium condition.

The 2024 wheat crop harvest has advanced to 62% of Parana’s planted area, a 14-percentage point increase from the previous week. Despite this progress, it remains seven percentage points behind last year’s pace. Wheat crop conditions have improved for the third consecutive week, with 40% of areas now considered in good condition, up 6 percentage points from the previous week.

These developments in Parana, a key agricultural state in Brazil, provide important indicators for the country’s overall agricultural output and potential export capabilities in the coming season

 

Kazakhstan Sees Grain Exports at 12M Tons This Marketing Year

Kazakhstan expects grain exports to reach 12m metric tons during current July-through-June marketing year, Agriculture Ministry says by email, citing estimates based on data from regional authorities.

• Last marketing year, central Asian nation exported 9.7m tons of grain and 2.3m tons of flour, ministry says
• Kazakhstan sees gross grain harvest at 25m tons this marketing year

 

EU’s MARS Sees Kazakh 2024 Wheat, Barley Crop 50% Higher on Year

“Mild temperatures and well-distributed above-average rainfall provided excellent conditions for yield formation of spring cereals,” the EU’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit says in a note.

• Sees 2024 spring wheat crop at 16.7m tons, compared to 11.3m tons last year
• 2024 spring barley crop seen at 3.81m tons, compared to 2.6m tons last year
• “yield forecast for winter cereals is also positive”

 

Ukraine winter grain sowing 55.4% complete, says ministry

Ukrainian farmers have so far sown 2.88 million hectares of winter grains for the 2025 harvest as of Oct. 7, or 55.4% of the expected area of 5.19 million hectares, the agriculture ministry said on Tuesday.

It said the area included 2.62 million hectares of winter wheat, 208,700 hectares of winter barley and 46,000 hectares of rye. Winter wheat generally accounts for 95% of overall Ukrainian wheat output each year.

There was no comparative data or further details in the ministry’s statement.

The ministry said last year that farmers had sown 2.35 million hectares of winter wheat as of Oct. 9, 2023. The ministry has said the 2025 winter wheat area is seen at around 4.5 million hectares, but Ukrainian farmers could increase that to more than 5 million hectares to compensate for a decline in the winter rapeseed area.

Ukraine has completed the 2024 wheat harvest, threshing around 22 million metric tons, the same volume it harvested in 2023.

 

Ukraine Grain Exports Up 56% Y/y to More Than 11 Million Tons

Ukraine’s grain exports reached 11.2m tons so far in the season that started July 1, compared with 7.2m tons for the same period a year ago, the Agriculture Ministry said on its website.

• Total exports include:
  • 6.5m tons of wheat, up 80% from same period year ago
  • 1.44m tons of barley, more than 100% up
• Almost 3m tons of corn, around same as year ago
• Total grain exports in October alone so far have reached 731K tons
• Amount of grain already harvested reached 37.3m tons: Ministry

 

Palm oil prices seen at about 4,000 ringgit a ton in 2025, says Glenauk Economics

Palm oil is likely to trade around 4,000 ringgit ($933.49) per metric ton in 2025, an executive of consultancy Glenauk Economics told an industry conference on Tuesday.

Malaysia’s benchmark crude palm oil futures are currently trading at a five-month high. Prices have traded at an average of 4,062.50 ringgit a ton so far this year.

 

Malaysia’s 2024 Palm Oil Output May Exceed 19M Tons: Minister

Malaysia’s palm oil production is on track to exceed 19 million tons this year, Johari Abdul Ghani, the nation’s plantation and commodities minister, said at a conference in Kuala Lumpur on Tuesday.

• NOTE: Production totaled 18.55m tons in 2023, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board
• Output rose 10.2% to 12.6m tons in Jan.-Aug. after the resolution of key issues including labor shortages, Johari said
• Govt. to focus on replanting and improving yields to increase production, rather than expanding plantation areas
  • About 132,000 ha replanted in 2023, or 2.3% of total plantation
  • 450,000 ha of Malaysia’s plantations are older than 25 years
• Govt. to assist smallholders to get the Malaysia Sustainable Palm Oil (MSPO) certificate
  • About 4.6m ha, or more than 81% of plantation has MSPO certification
• Delay in the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will give palm oil producing countries time to comply with requirements
  • A transparent benchmarking criteria to categorize country risks is essential to prevent unfairness
• Palm oil sector contributes about 3% to Malaysia’s GDP, with export value of more than $22bln

 

Ukraine Says Russian Missile Hits Second Grain Ship

• Ballistic missile targeted Palau ship in Odesa region
• Another ship in same area was hit Sunday while loading cargo

Russia targeted a ship loaded with Ukrainian grain with a ballistic missile Monday — the second in two days — killing one person and injuring five, according to the Infrastructure Ministry in Kyiv.

The Optima, which sails under the flag of Palau, was damaged in an Odesa region port shortly after it docked for loading, Infrastructure Minister Oleksiy Kuleba said in a statement without elaborating on the size of its cargo or exact location.

“This is a purposeful practice of intimidation and obstruction of the work of the Ukrainian maritime corridor,” Kuleba said.

Another bulker loaded with Ukrainian grain for export was damaged Sunday during a Russian missile barrage in the Odesa region. The Paresa, sailing under the flag of Saint Kitts and Nevis, was struck near one of docks at the Black Sea port of Pivdennyi. The ship had 6,000 tons of corn on board. Its crew remained unharmed.

Russia frequently targets Ukrainian grain export infrastructure on the Black Sea and on the Danube, a key source of revenue for the country. While Kyiv’s export volumes have remained resilient, the attacks have pushed traders to use more expensive alternative routes.

The ministry published pictures showing broken glass in the wheelhouse and metal debris near loaded grain after the attack against Paresa. Greece-based AK shipping, the owner of the ship, confirmed the vessel had come under Russian attack. It had sailed into the port with empty holds with the purpose of loading grain, the firm said in an emailed statement.

 

Russian Minister Asks Farmers to Pray as Lack of Rain Persists

Russian Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut urged people to go to church and pray for rain as the persistent lack of precipitation puts the sowing of winter wheat at risk.

“We plan to sow 20 million hectares, like last year. But we are sowing practically in sand in the hope that it will rain,” Interfax cited Lut as saying. In many winter crops growing regions it hasn’t rained “since about April,” she added.

“It is very necessary to go to church and light a candle to Elijah for rain. Everyone, please,” Lut said, referring to the patron saint of thunder, rain, harvest and fertility in Russian folk tradition.

While several Russian regions have declared a state of emergency because of the prolonged drought, central Ukraine and the Central Region of Russia have received some rain this past weekend, with more on the way, according to forecaster  Maxar Technologies Inc. The precipitation could help boost soil moisture and help the winter wheat crop.

 

China to buy 6,000 metric tons of frozen beef, mutton for state reserves on Oct 9 – notice

China will buy 6,000 metric tons of frozen beef and mutton for its state reserves on Oct. 9, representing the third and fourth batches of reserve buying for the year, according to two notices on the State Reserve’s website on Tuesday.

 

France cuts wine output estimate as harvest confirms weather damage

The French farm ministry on Tuesday lowered its projection for this year’s wine output to 37.5 million hectolitres, down from 39.3 million forecast last month and down 22% from last year due to adverse weather conditions.

The revised forecast, based on the latest harvest results, was 15% below the five-year average of 44.2 million hectolitres. A hectolitre is the equivalent of 100 litres, or 133 standard wine bottles.

 

 

 

 

 

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