Global Ag News for Oct 14th

TODAY – EIA WEEKLY PETROLEUM STATUS REPORT

Wheat prices overnight are up 5 1/4 in SRW, up 5 3/4 in HRW, up 3 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/2; Soybeans up 4 1/2; Soymeal up $0.08; Soyoil up 0.26.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 10 in SRW, down 10 in HRW, up 5 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 15 3/4; Soybeans down 43 1/4; Soymeal down $0.62; Soyoil down 1.67. For the month to date wheat prices are down 1 1/2 in SRW, down 4 1/4 in HRW, up 39 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 22; Soybeans down 56 1/4; Soymeal down $16.20; Soyoil up 1.16.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans down 101 yuan ; Soymeal down 27; Soyoil down 52; Palm oil down 8; Corn down 18 — Malasyian Palm is down 138.Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 138 ringgit (-2.75%) at 4883.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday, below normal Sunday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday-Sunday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday-Sunday.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Scattered showers Wednesday, south Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday. East: Scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

The player sheet for Oct. 13 had funds: net sellers of 8,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 13,500 corn, sellers of 4,500 soybeans, sellers of 1,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 1,500 soyoil.

There were changes in registrations (-2 Soyoil). Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 17 Corn; 1 Soybeans; 320 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 1,273 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 13 were: SRW Wheat up 8,990 contracts, HRW Wheat down 309, Corn up 3,042, Soybeans up 1,312, Soymeal up 10,925, Soyoil up 9,766.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 330,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China and another 198,000 tonnes to unknown destinations, all for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year that began Sept. 1.
• CORN SALE: The USDA also confirmed private sales of 161,544 tonnes of U.S. corn to unknown destinations for 2021/22 delivery.
• WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender from Pakistan to purchase 90,000 tonnes of wheat which closed on Wednesday was believed to be $388.83 a tonne c&f

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: A United Nations agency issued an international tender to purchase about 200,000 tonnes of milling wheat on behalf of the Ethiopian government
• FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 80,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 100,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Jan. 31, 2022, and arrive in Japan by Feb. 24. Both to be sought via a simultaneous buy-and-sell (SBS) auction that will be held on Oct. 13.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture is seeking to buy a total of 119,512 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close on Oct. 14.
• CORN TENDER: TMO issued an international tender to purchase a total of 325,000 tonnes of animal feed corn
• WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat

ETHANOL: U.S. Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Oct. 8 are based on ten analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen higher than last week at 985k b/d
• Would be the second consecutive increase in production
• Stockpile avg est. 19.834m bbl vs 19.931m a week ago

NOPA September U.S. soybean crush seen at 155.072 mln bushels -survey

U.S. soybean crushings likely fell to a three-month low in September, according to analysts polled ahead of a monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Friday.

NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, were estimated to have crushed 155.072 million bushels of soybeans in September, according to the average of estimates from 10 analysts.

If realized, the figure would be down 2.4% from the 158.843 million bushels processed in August and down 4% from September 2020, when crushers processed 161.491 million bushels. It would also be the smallest crush since June.

Estimates for the September 2021 crush ranged from 148.0 million to 162.8 million bushels, with a median of 154.150 million bushels.

Soyoil supplies at the end of September were projected at 1.663 billion pounds, based on estimates from seven analysts. If realized, the figure would be down 0.3% from 1.668 billion the prior month.

Stocks estimates ranged from 1.625 billion to 1.718 billion pounds, with a median of 1.650 billion.

USDA attaché sees Argentina 2021/22 soy crop at 49.7 mln T

Following are selected highlights from a report issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service post in Buenos Aires:

“Post lowers its MY 2021/22 projected planted area for soybeans to 17.0 million hectares. This reduction of 500,000 hectares will translate to total projected production of 49.7 million metric tons, 2.3 million metric tons below the USDA Official estimate. The reduction in area is driven primarily by better anticipated margins for other crops, especially corn. Dry weather in the northernmost sunflowerseed production area meant that some farmers didn’t plant or delayed August planting in many parts of the Provinces of Chaco and Santiago de Estero, but good planting conditions in Santa Fe Province mean that northern Argentina will see a partial recuperation of sunflowerseed production in comparison with MY 2020/21.”

Argentine farmers have sold 31.5 mln tonnes of 2020/21 soy – gov’t

Argentine farmers have sold 31.5 million tonnes of soybeans from the 2020/21 growing season, the government said on Wednesday in a report with data updated through Oct. 6.

The rhythm of sales was behind that of the previous season. As of the same date last year, growers had sold 33.2 million tonnes of the oilseed, according to official data.

The 2020/21 soybean harvest in Argentina ended in June at 43.1 million tonnes, according to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange, which estimated the previous 2019/20 harvest at 49 million tonnes.

Foreign exchange from agricultural exports is essential for Argentina’s economy, which is climbing out of a long recession that was exacerbated last year by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The exchange forecasts an upcoming 2021/22 harvest later this year of 44 million tonnes.

Brazil soy exports seen reaching 2.973 million tns in October – Anec

BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.973 MILLION TNS IN OCTOBER VERSUS 2.678 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.968 MILLION TNS IN OCTOBER VERSUS 1.420 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

China raises 2022 minimum purchase price for wheat to 2,300 yuan/T

China has raised the mininum purchasing price for wheat in 2022, the state planner said on Thursday, part of an effort to enhance grain security in the country.

The National Development and Reform Commission has set the 2022 minimum purchase price for wheat at 2,300 yuan ($357) per tonne, up from 2,260 yuan per tonne in 2021, a notice published on the state planner’s website said.

Local authorities must guide farmers to plant reasonably, strengthen management in the fields, and promote stable production and improve the quality of the grain, the statement said.

Drought impacts ‘mean Iran’s wheat import need has leapt from around 1mn to 8mn tonnes’

Iran reportedly needs to buy a record 8mn tonnes of wheat in the current season given the impact of severe drought on its domestic crop this year. The jump in imports will coincide with high global grain prices, placing additional pressure on the country’s stretched finances. Reuters quoted Iranian industry sources as briefing it on the matter on October 13. Bread is a staple in Iran and the big hike in wheat imports, a leap from an annual average of around 1mn tonnes during the past five years, is required to ensure bread supply, with Iran’s wheat crop expected to be some 30% lower this year, the sources reportedly said. Iran was hit by its worst drought in 50 years during the 2021 growing season.

Malaysia Keeps Crude Palm Oil Export Duty at 8% for November

Gazetted price for crude palm oil at 4,523.29 ringgit a ton, which incurs the maximum export tax of 8%, according to a statement from the customs department posted on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s website.

• NOTE: Tax has been kept at 8% since January, following a government exemption between July and December 2020
• NOTE: Export duty structure starts at 3% when FOB prices for CPO are in the 2,250-2,400 ringgit per ton range
• Maximum tax rate is 8% when prices are above 3,450 ringgit per ton

Indonesia’s Sept. Palm Oil Exports Drop 27.5% M/m: Intertek

Shipments declined to 1.96 million tons in September, from 2.71 million tons in the previous month, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services says in an emailed statement.

• Sept. shipments by grade:
  • 184,190 tons of crude palm oil
  • 796,412 tons of RBD palm olein
  • 403,541 tons of RBD palm oil
• Sept. versus Aug. sales by destination:
  • China at 335,452 tons vs. 523,944 tons
  • EU at 357,957 tons vs. 356,910 tons
  • India and subcontinent at 556,474 tons vs. 1.02m tons

French Fertilizer Crunch Could Hit 2022 Grain Harvests: AgriMer

France may face difficulties sourcing fertilizer supplies, Benoit Pietrement, chair of the grains council at FranceAgriMer, said Wednesday at a press briefing.

• Some farmers may limit corn plantings next year in favors of crops that require less nitrogen, such as sunflower, barley or protein crops like peas
• Nitrogen fertilizer prices have more than doubled, reaching EU300-350 per hectare in wheat production costs
• France has chance to boost soft-wheat exports to Egypt in the second half of the season if Russia sets export quotas and maintains taxes, said Marc Zribi, head of FranceAgriMer’s grain units
• Wheat sales to Algeria could total 3m to 3.5m tons this season, and China and sub-Saharan Africa are also expected to remain active buyers

Deere workers go on strike after UAW fails to reach deal

Thousands of Deere Co. workers began a strike on Thursday, the United Auto Workers (UAW) said, days after overwhelmingly rejecting a six-year labor contract that was agreed on with the tractor maker.

Earlier this month, the world’s largest farm equipment maker and the UAW union reached an agreement after weeks of negotiation on wages and other benefits, but 90% of the union’s workers voted against the deal.

The tentative deal covered about 10,000 production and maintenance employees across 14 facilities in the United States.

Separately, Deere said it remained committed to reaching a new agreement, adding that it had not yet estimated when it would complete negotiations.

The now-rejected offer would have given 5% wage hikes for some workers and 6% for some others. The proposed deal had also called for 3% raises in 2023 and 2025.