Global Ag News for Nov 7.24

TOP HEADLINES

South Dakota Is Set to Pull Pipeline Law in Blow for US Ethanol

  • Pipeline company Summit to reapply for permit on Nov. 19
  • Law has divided corn farmers and big biofuel producers

A proposed $8.9-billion carbon-capture pipeline that has polarized the US Corn Belt has hit another setback in the critical state of South Dakota.

At least 60% of South Dakotans voted to repeal a law critics say was meant to ease approval of the project by Summit Carbon Solutions, according to preliminary results of a statewide ballot done with Tuesday’s election. The project is the last high-profile carbon pipeline proposal still standing after rivals with similar visions went bust amid opposition from landowners in various Midwestern states.

“This is a mandate from the voters that South Dakota is not for sale,” Republican state lawmaker Karla Lems, who voted against the law earlier this year, said in a Wednesday interview. “They understand that our property rights are sacred and the legislature got it wrong. Now we move forward to enact much-needed protections.”

Summit Carbon said it isn’t deterred by the ballot results and plans to reapply for a state permit on Nov. 19.

“Our focus continues to be on working with landowners and ensuring the long-term viability of ethanol and agriculture in the state,” the Iowa-based firm said in a Wednesday statement. “Projects like ours have successfully navigated South Dakota’s existing regulatory landscape in the past.”

The project, whose backers include energy billionaire Harold Hamm, aims to shrink the environmental impacts of ethanol production by capturing emissions from plants in South Dakota, North Dakota, Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska. The carbon dioxide would then be stored in North Dakota. Roughly a fifth of a proposed 2,500-mile pipeline would run through South Dakota, according to Summit.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 5 1/2 in SRW, up 3 1/4 in HRW, up 2 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/4; Soybeans up 7 1/4; Soymeal up $2.30; Soyoil down 0.20.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 11 in SRW, up 10 1/2 in HRW, up 7 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 12 3/4; Soybeans up 17 1/4; Soymeal up $5.40; Soyoil down 0.16.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 8 1/4 in SRW, up 8 in HRW, up 3 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 16 3/4; Soybeans up 16 1/2; Soymeal up $1.20; Soyoil up 1.00.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 7.8% in SRW, down 10.1% in HRW, down 16.0% in HRS; Corn is down 9.3%; Soybeans down 22.8%; Soymeal down 22.1%; Soyoil down 3.6%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 25) Soybeans up 53 yuan; Soymeal up 79; Soyoil up 134; Palm oil up 202; Corn up 1 — Malaysian Palm is up 35.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 35 ringgit (+0.71%) at 4952.

There were changes in registrations (-58 Soybeans). Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 126 Corn; 537 Soybeans; 369 Soyoil; 76 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 5 were: SRW Wheat up 3,983 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,622, Corn down 8,903, Soybeans up 7,811, Soymeal down 6,086, Soyoil down 2,840.

 

Brazil: Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, being favorable for further soybean planting and establishment. Soybean planting has reached the normal pace and the risk of significant late plantings of safrinha corn will now look to the potential for heavy rain at soybean harvest and corn planting in February. Otherwise, good growing conditions are currently found throughout most of the country. Southern areas are seeing waves of showers from fronts moving up from Argentina, though a front that moves through early next week may have more limited showers and another stretch of drier weather will be possible afterward.

Argentina: Another front will move through the country on Wednesday and Thursday with more scattered showers. Some additional spotty showers may continue before the next system moves in over the weekend and early next week. Models are backing off on the precipitation potential for that system and a stretch of drier weather is likely to return afterward. However, it is not expected to last more than a week and overall favorable conditions continue to be present in most of the country for now. The threat of heat and dryness due to the building La Nina may be a threat later in the season.

Northern Plains: A system moving through western areas is bringing some showers through on Wednesday and should return over the weekend for eastern areas with limited showers. After a brief cooldown, temperatures should return to being above normal by the end of the week. Another front is likely to push through early next week and may bring some showers as well.

Central/Southern Plains: Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the last week have meant a lot of meaningful rain, boosting soil moisture and improving crop conditions for wheat, but causing flooding and disrupting remaining fieldwork. An upper-level low is moving into the Southwest on Wednesday, with showers building across the west for the end of the week which includes some heavy snow in Colorado and New Mexico. The low will move northeast through the region on Saturday, with any snow changing to rain. Some areas in the southwest will see some heavy precipitation. Those that see snow will see temperatures stay lower while the rest of the region sees above-normal temperatures, allowing the additional moisture to improve conditions for wheat. 

Midwest: A front is pushing showers to the east and south on Wednesday, after several days of waves of heavy rain that have led to drought reduction across much of the region. Some flooding has occurred because of heavy rain though, especially in Missouri. After a few days’ break, another system will move through this weekend with scattered showers and another system is poised to move through next week with more rain chances. Temperatures continue to be above normal, allowing the rain to build soil moisture and improve conditions for winter wheat.

Delta: Water levels on the Mississippi River are rising due to recent heavy rain across the Plains and Midwest. Tributaries into the river are bursting, but the River needs to see more precipitation into the Ohio Valley for sustained change. Additional rain will fall with a system moving through this weekend and there is potential for another next week.

The player sheet for Nov. 6 had funds: net buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 18,000 corn, buyers of 6,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and buyers of 2,000 soyoil.

 

Global currency on a map

 

TENDERS

  • WHEAT PURCHASE: A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 100,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the U.S. and Australia in an international tender on Wednesday
  • WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
  • FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said on Wednesday it will seek 65,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley via a tender. The tender will be undertaken via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on Nov. 13.
  • NO PURCHASE IN FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley which closed on Wednesday.

 

PENDING TENDERS

  • WHEAT & CORN TENDER: South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 138,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 60,000 tons of feed corn
  • RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 4,000 metric tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins.
  • WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 121,790 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on Nov. 7.
  • RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 101,000 metric tons of rice
  • WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.
  • RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of six analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Oct. 31.

  • Corn est. range 1,700k – 2,500k tons, with avg of 2,120k
  • Soybean est. range 1,200k – 2,200k tons, with avg of 1,766k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 1.1% to 22.02M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

  • Analysts were expecting 21.876 mln bbl
  • Plant production at 1.105m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.077m

 

China October Imports: Customs

General Administration of Customs says on website.

  • Soybean Imports 8.087m Tons
    • Soybean imports YTD rose 11.2% y/y to 89.936m tons
  • Edible vegetable oil imports in Oct. 572,000 tons
    • Edible vegetable oil imports YTD fell 25.9% y/y to 5.963m tons
  • Rubber imports in Oct. 659,000 tons
    • Rubber imports YTD fell 11.6% y/y to 5.787m tons
  • Meat (including offal) imports in Oct. 535,000 tons
    • Meat (including offal) imports YTD fell 12.5% y/y to 5.475m tons
  • Fertilizer exports in Oct. 2.956m tons
    • Fertilizer exports YTD rose 0.6% y/y to 25.902m tons

 

China set for record soybean imports in 2024 ahead of Trump’s inauguration

China imported 8.09 million metric tons of soybeans in October with buyers rushing to stockpile before Donald Trump takes office early next year, as the world’s top soybean buyer heads for its largest annual imports on record.

October arrivals were the biggest for the month in four years, surging 56% from 5.18 million tons a year ago, according to Reuters’ calculations of customs data released on Thursday.

“The October soybean imports were 600,000 higher than our initial estimate,” said Rosa Wang, analyst at Shanghai-based agro-consultancy JCI.

The jump comes as crush margins in China’s key processing hub of Rizhao improved from a loss of about 600 yuan ($83.72) per ton of soybean processed in August to a loss of 75 yuan ($10.47).

Exporters in the United States had raced to ship a record-large U.S. harvest to China ahead of the U.S. presidential election and fears of renewed trade tensions, traders and analysts said.

“We still estimate very high imports of soybeans in the following months as Chinese buyers rush” to secure stocks before Trump takes office in January, Wang said.

Total soy imports in the first 10 months of 2024 reached 89.94 million tons, up 11.2% year-on-year and close to last year’s imports of 99.41 million tons, the customs data showed.

China imported 100.31 million tons of soy in 2020, its highest ever.

Tariff threats from president-elect Trump’s campaign speeches are prompting some Chinese importers to shun U.S. shipments from January onward, traders and analysts said.

China’s most active soymeal futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rallied 3.6% after Trump recaptured the White House on Tuesday with a sweeping victory.

The most active rapeseed meal futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jumped 4.76%.

China’s push to shift its sources of soybean supply to Brazil since 2018 has put it in a better position to impose tit-for-tat tariffs on U.S. farm goods with less harm to its food security if trade friction flares with Washington.

 

Brazil October Agriculture, Mining Exports by Volume: MDIC

Following is a summary of key Brazilian agriculture and mining exports by volume, from the Brazilian Trade Ministry.

  • Beef exports rose 45% in October from a year ago
  • Corn exports fell 24% y/y
  • Soybean exports fell 16% y/y

 

Rain seen boosting northern Argentine farmland next week

Argentina’s northern farming areas will likely see significant rainfall next week, according to a forecast on Wednesday from the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange (BdeC), which also pointed to possible freezing temperatures in southeastern areas.

The precipitation should improve soil moisture levels for areas planted with wheat, which has been lacking for weeks, as well as benefit the planting of soybeans and corn, according to the BdeC.

Argentina is a top global grains supplier, especially for processed soybeans as well as corn and wheat, with proceeds from sales providing a major source of foreign currency for central-bank coffers.

“A storm front will pass, producing intense rainfall … over the northern agricultural area,” the exchange predicted in its weekly weather report, adding that scattered showers are expected over the remainder of the main farming area.

The report also pointed to the arrival of “a mass of polar air” that is expected to cause localized frosts in southeastern farmland in Buenos Aires province, which it noted could harm the wheat crop.

The exchange sees the 2024/25 wheat crop yielding 18.6 million metric tons, while the area planted with corn during the same cycle is seen covering 6.3 million hectares (15.6 million acres).

The area planted with soybeans for the 2024/25 harvest, meanwhile, is expected to cover 19 million hectares, according to the BdeC.

  

USDA attaché sees China 2024/25 soybean imports at 104 million T

Following are selected highlights from a report issued on Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service post in Beijing:

“Soybean production for MY (marketing year) 2024/25 is forecast slightly up at 19.9 million metric tons (MMT) based on higher yield and a planted area of 9.95 million hectares (Mha). There were no significant adverse weather events reported in the Northeast region as of mid-October. Post raised its forecast for MY 24/25 peanut production to 18.4 MMT from the previous report’s 18.1 MMT on higher yields. … Forecast MY 24/25 soybean imports are raised to 104 MMT from the previous estimate at 103 MMT.”

 

India’s veg oil imports seen lower in 2024-25, industry group says

India’s vegetable oil imports are estimated to decline further in the 2024-25 season to 15 million metric tons, as favourable weather will likely boost domestic production, an industry group said.

India, the world’s biggest vegetable oils importer, is estimated to have imported 16 million tons in the 2023-24 season that ended in October, said B V Mehta, executive director of The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India. In the previous year, the country had imported 16.5 million tons.

“Overall, we are expecting the crop will increase by 3 to 4 million tons… So considering new demand, still we’ll have a surplus of a million ton,” Mehta told Reuters on the sidelines of the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference in Bali late on Wednesday.

Weather has been favourable for Indian crops this year, resulting in higher production of soybean and ground nuts, Mehta said, adding that rapeseed output was also expected to rise.

India’s palm oil imports in 2023-24 were estimated to be 9.2 million tons, down from 9.8 million tons in the previous year, while sunflower oil imports were seen higher at 3.5 million tons, compared with 2.9 million tons in the prior year.

Palm oil accounts for 60% of India’s vegetable oils imports. However, high palm oil prices this year have made buyers shift to sunflower oil, Mehta said.

Palm oil will lose about 2% to 3% of its market share and soft oils will gain them because of the price discounts, Mehta said.

Malaysia’s benchmark palm oil price has increased by about 30% so far this year, and any further increase could also squeeze demand from the lower-income consumers, he said.

India’s palm oil imports in October surged 59% from a month earlier to a three-month high, as refiners boosted purchases to replenish stocks depleted by lower-than-usual imports in recent months and strong festive demand, five dealers said.

 

Indonesia Sees Bullish Palm Oil Market in 2025 on Biofuel Plan

Palm oil market is seen to be bullish next year as Indonesia plans to increase biodiesel blending to 40% (B40), which will boost local consumption amid stagnating production, according to the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, known as Gapki.

  • Indonesia’s B40 program may impact output as well as export dynamics, says Chairman Eddy Martono at an industry conference in Bali
  • Palm oil industry is facing uncertainties due to potential food and energy crises, as well as trade barriers such as the European Union Deforestation Regulation
  • Gapki expects government to help strengthen sustainable production practices and avoid counter-productive regulations
  • Replanting program needs to be accelerated to ensure government’s plan to increase biofuel mandate to 50% in 2026 does not affect supply for food and exports, he said

 

Indonesia Ministry Seeks to Start B50 Biodiesel Plan in 2028

  • Indonesia’s energy and mineral ministry has proposed to begin a program to increase palm-based biofuel mix to 50% in 2028, according to Edi Wibowo, director of bioenergy at the ministry.
  • To increase biodiesel blending, the country would need to increase the production capacity of its biodiesel industry, mainly in the central and eastern regions, he said at an industry conference in Bali on Thursday
  • The current blending ratio is 35%
  • The govt will need to ensure availability of biodiesel incentives and improve the distribution infrastructure
  • Feedstock sustainability would need to be supported by accelerating replanting program for small oil-palm plantation farmers
  • READ: Indonesia Seeks Bigger Biodiesel Blend to Reduce Fossil Fuel Use
  • To run the B50 program, the country would need about 19.7m kiloliters of biodiesel; the current capacity is 15.8m kiloliters
    • Indonesia needs seven to nine more biodiesel plants to boost output, against about two dozen now
  • The export levy collection seen at about 21 trillion rupiah ($1.3 billion) in 2025, Eddy Abdurrachman, president director of Indonesia’s oil palm plantation fund management agency, said at the same conference
    • The agency’s total funds likely at 32 trillion rupiah by the end of this year
    • NOTE: The fund is mainly used to provide biodiesel subsidy and replanting aid
  • The nation may need 47 trillion rupiah in the fund to run the B40 program next year, as prices of palm-based biodiesel are currently higher than gasoil
    • The initiative will need about 16m kiloliters of palm-based biodiesel
  • The govt should seek new ways to boost collections in order to maintain the biodiesel program, Abdurrachman said

  

 

 

 

 

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