Written Commentary
TODAY—FND FOR DEC CONTRACTS—EXPORT INSPCECTIONS—CROP PROGRESS—COMMITS–
Overnight trade has SRW Wheat down roughly 4 cents, HRW down 7; HRS Wheat down 4, Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans down 7; Soymeal down $1.00, and Soyoil down 55 points.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices were up roughly 7 cents; HRW up 6; HRS up 9; Corn was up 6 cents; Soybeans up 14 cents; Soymeal up $4.00, and; Soyoil up 10 points. Crushing margins were down 2 cents at $1.02; Oil share is unchanged at 32%.
For the month, SRW Wheat prices are down roughly 4 cents; HRW up 14; HRS down 5; Corn is up 26 cents; Soybeans up $1.30; Soymeal up $24.00, and; Soyoil up 445 points. Crushing margins are down 28 cents at $1.01; Oil share is up 1% at 32%.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 93 yuan in soybeans, up 19 in Corn, up 42 in Soymeal, up 42 in Soyoil, and up 22 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were down 27 ringgit at 3,295 (basis February) by rival oil weakness.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 7,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 17,000 Corn; bought 7,000 Soybeans; net bought 1,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 4,000 lots of Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 25,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 284,000 Corn; net long 231,000 Soybeans; net long 79,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 115,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 5,500 contracts; HRW Wheat down 2,200; Corn down 8,900; Soybeans up 4,100 contracts; Soymeal down3,200 lots, and; Soyoil down 75.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 109 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 1; Soybeans 175; Soyoil 1,658 lots; Soymeal 193; Rice 313; HRW Wheat 113, and; HRS 1,195.
For the week ended November 19th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 11% ahead of a year ago, shipments down 2% with the USDA forecasting a 1% increase on the year
For the week ended November 19th, U.S. Corn sales are running 162% ahead of a year ago, shipments 59% ahead with the USDA forecasting a 49% increase
For the week ended November 19th, U.S. Soybean sales are running 106% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 70% with the USDA forecasting a 31% increase on the year
Drought conditions and a drier-than-normal winter has put cattle producers in a common dilemma – try to preserve herd size with supplemental feed or cull to stretch limited forage resources for quality cows and calves, said a Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service expert.
China’s customs authority has completed the quarantine protocols agreed under the Phase one trade deal between China and the United States allowing for the imports of various farm goods, the Global Times reported on Monday; all 37 tasks outlined in the deal have been completed on time
China sold 674,796 tonnes of wheat, 16.76% of its total offer, at an auction of state reserves last week, the National Grain Trade Centre said; the average selling price was 2,340 yuan ($355.96) per tonne,
Brazilian farmers will produce a smaller first-corn crop, which is planted over the summer in the nation, as dry weather persists in southern states, agribusiness consultancy Safras & Mercado said; Safras now forecasts Brazil will collect 19.052 million tonnes, almost 18% below the 23.161 million tonnes harvested in the 2019/20 summer season; in a previous estimate released in October, the volume forecast for this season’s summer corn production was 22.851 million tonnes
A vessel carrying 30,500 tonnes of soybeans produced in the United States is due to arrive on Friday in Brazil, according to the Paranaguá port authority, as the nation makes a rare purchase from North America amid tight supplies; this year, Brazil sold huge soybean volumes to top importer China, leaving little for domestic consumption; the situation led to a rise in livestock feed prices and fueled domestic food inflation.
Russia may increase the size of its grain export quota planned for Feb. 15-June 30 to 17.5 million tonnes from 15 million tonnes, the agriculture ministry said
Ukraine has exported 21.08 million tonnes of grain so far in the season, which runs from July 2020 to June 2021, the economy ministry said; that is 11.3% lower than exports for the same period of the previous season because of lower sales of corn and wheat amid a weaker harvest; traders have sold 5.20 million tonnes of corn, down from 6.84 million tonnes on the same date last year; exports of wheat have declined to 11.83 million tonnes from 13.15 million tonnes.
Chinese buying spree pressures EU grain market
- All main cereal prices at 2-year highs, pressuring buyers
- China scoops up reduced French wheat and barley surplus
- Ukraine maize crop setback reduces import options
- Buyers face paying more or holding back for 2021 crops
China’s massive appetite for grain is rippling through Europe’s markets, fuelling sharp price rallies as traders struggle to meet relentless export demand amid dwindling supplies; as local buyers like livestock feed makers vie with importers for a shrinking European cereal surplus, prices could continue rising until demand is dampened or next crops are harvested around the world; China has been on an extended buying spree of global grain, partly due to a rebuilding of its pork industry after a swine disease epidemic.
Paris wheat futures ended little changed on Friday as a near three-month high for the euro against the dollar offset support from a post-holiday rebound in Chicago; March milling wheat
settled 0.25 euros, or 0.1%, lower at 210.00 euros ($250.99) a ton.
Australia plans to take China to the World Trade Organization over the Asian giant’s decision to slap export tariffs on Australian barley,
Egypt’s strategic reserves of wheat are sufficient for more than five months, a government statement said
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for November fell 16.6 percent to 1,409,751 tonnes from 1,690,237 tonnes shipped during October, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said
- MALAYSIA’S NOV PALM OIL EXPORTS SEEN AT 1,420,103 TONNES VERSUS OCT AT 1,701,436 TONNES – AMSPEC MALAYSIA
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