Global Ag News for Nov 26.24

TOP HEADLINES

Drier Weather Helps European Crop Plantings to Catch Up: MARS

Sowing of winter crops over most of Europe accelerated amid drier-than-usual weather and average to above-average temperatures, the European Union’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit said Monday.

  • Still, conditions were unfavorable in large parts of Spain and areas of Italy after excessive rainfall
  • Meanwhile, Romania and Bulgaria saw dry weather that “negatively affected the emergence and initial development of rapeseed and winter cereals”
  • Dryness hindered plantings and initial plant development in eastern Ukraine and southern European Russia, “leading to less sowing than originally projected and weak stands of emerged crops”
  • Rain is “urgently needed” in large parts of Turkey

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 5 in SRW, up 7 in HRW, up 8 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans up 2 3/4; Soymeal down $2.50; Soyoil up 1.50.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 7 1/2 in SRW, down 5 1/2 in HRW, up 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 4 1/4; Soybeans up 3 1/4; Soymeal up $1.80; Soyoil up 0.77.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 29 1/2 in SRW, down 19 in HRW, down 23 in HRS; Corn is up 6 3/4; Soybeans down 6; Soymeal down $7.90; Soyoil down 2.24.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 14.6% in SRW, down 14.4% in HRW, down 18.9% in HRS; Corn is down 10.3%; Soybeans down 23.7%; Soymeal down 24.6%; Soyoil down 11.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 25) Soybeans up 9 yuan; Soymeal up 14; Soyoil up 14; Palm oil up 114; Corn down 5 — Malaysian Palm is up 36.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 36 ringgit (+0.77%) at 4735.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 114 Corn; 422 Soybeans; 369 Soyoil; 76 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 25 were: SRW Wheat down 8,768 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,578, Corn down 55,561, Soybeans down 906, Soymeal down 13,270, Soyoil down 5,533.

 

Brazil: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana:  Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias: Scattered showers northwest through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

Argentina: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires:  Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday.

Central/Southern Plains: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near normal north and above normal south Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures below normal Saturday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Midwest: West: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers south Wednesday. Isolated snow north Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday. East: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Lake-effect snow Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Thursday, below normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated snow Saturday-Wednesday. Lake-effect snows continuing. Temperatures below to well below normal Saturday-Wednesday.

The player sheet for Nov. 25 had funds: net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 1,500 corn, buyers of 4,000 soymeal, and sellers of 5,000 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

  • CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 454,090 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico, including 364,792 tons for shipment in the 2024/25 marketing year and 89,298 tons for the 2025/26 marketing year.
  • CORN, SOYMEAL TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB has issued international tenders to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 70,000 tons of soymeal
  • WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat for shipment to two ports only.
  • WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: The lowest offer in an international tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase and import 50,000 metric tons of wheat which closed on Monday was assessed at $286.08 a metric ton CIF liner out.

 PENDING TENDERS

  • CORN TENDER: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 138,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
  • RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 40,000 metric tons of rice to be sourced from the United States
  • WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
  • FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
  • FEED BARLEY TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to sell and export about 150,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
  • RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

Farmers

 

 

TODAY

 

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Winter Wheat Crop 55% Good/Excellent

Highlights from the report:

  • Winter wheat 55% G/E vs 49% last week, and 50% a year ago
  • Winter wheat planted 97% vs 94% last week, and 97% a year ago
  • Cotton harvested 84% vs 77% last week, and 81% a year ago

 

US Inspected 903k Tons of Corn for Export, 2.102m of Soybeans

In week ending Nov. 21, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

  • Wheat: 361k tons vs 197k the previous wk, 288k a yr ago
  • Soybeans: 2,102k tons vs 2,266k the previous wk, 1,574k a yr ago
  • Corn: 903k tons vs 874k the previous wk, 420k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Nov. 21

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Nov. 21 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

  • Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 1.23m tons of the 2.1m total inspected
  • Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Japan led in wheat

 

SovEcon Trims 2024-25 Russia Wheat-Export Forecast on Quota

Consultant SovEcon cut its wheat-export forecast to 44.1m tons from 45.9m tons, citing expectations of stricter export quotas.

  • NOTE: Russia has in recent years limited wheat exports in the second half of the season in order to protect domestic supplies
  • Corn exports seen unchanged at 2.4m tons; barley export estimate revised up slightly to 2.6m tons
  • Total exports of grains, legumes, and processed products are now seen at 52m tons, down from 53.6m tons
  • “Forecast reduction reflects anticipated tight export quotas to be imposed by the Ministry of Agriculture for the mid-February to June period”
  • Current consensus suggests the quota could be set at around 10m tons; it is “possible that the quota may initially be set lower and later revised upward”

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Lower price in RS attracts purchasers from other states

The price gap among wheat producing states surveyed by Cepea has been widening. According to data from Cepea, prices in the wholesale market in Paraná are above BRL 1,400 per ton; in the interior of São Paulo, at around BRL 1,500/ton and in the metropolitan region of SP, BRL 1,650/ton.

However, the high supply in Rio Grande do Sul has been leading quotations to be lower, between BRL 1,250 and 1,300 per ton, attracting purchasers from other states. It is worth noting that the current season in RS is 76.2% higher than in Paraná, different from what was observed in 2023, when the harvest in RS was 20% below that in PR, according to data from Conab.

Wheat values moved down in the wholesale market, but decreases were limited by the exchange rate valuation (BRL x USD). As for prices paid to farmers (over-the-counter market), drops are linked to the fact that producers are willing to trade.

According to data from Cepea, between November 14 and 22, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) dropped 1.69% in Rio Grande do Sul, 0.22% in Santa Catarina and 2% in Paraná. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), quotations moved down 1.34% São Paulo, 1.36% in Rio Grande do Sul and 0.71% in Santa Catarina. Dollar quotations increased 0.54% against Real, at BRL 5.81 on November 22.

Data from Conab indicate that the wheat harvesting accounted for 88.6% of the area up to Nov. 17, against 94.2% in the same period last year.

BYPRODUCTS – Comparing the period from Nov. 18-22 with the previous (November 11-14), values of wheat bran downed 0.73% (in bags) and 0.59% (product in bulk).

 

November weather favours Ukrainian winter crops, forecasters say

The weather in November was mostly favourable for the development of winter grain crops, but some of the seedlings are still underdeveloped due to the long drought, analyst APK-Inform quoted state weather forecasters as saying on Tuesday.

Meteorologists have previously said that a significant proportion of winter grain crops are underdeveloped before entering winter due to the drought that dominated much of the Ukraine in summer-autumn 2024.

Ukraine is a global major grain grower and exporter and winter wheat generally accounts for 95% of overall Ukrainian wheat output each year.

“The prevalence of moderately warm weather with fogs and drizzle was a favourable factor for growth and development of winter crops, especially for late sowings,” forecasters said in a report.

However, forecasters said that due to the drought some crops remained in weak and underdeveloped condition in some fields of the central and eastern regions.

“According to the assessment of meteorologists, the condition of plants before entering winter is mainly good, in some areas of the central and north-eastern regions – satisfactory,” APK-Inform said.

The first deputy agriculture minister Taras Vysotskiy told Reuters this month that Ukraine’s wheat harvest may increase to up to 25 million metric tons next year from an expected 22 million tons this year thanks to a larger sowing area.

In the first official forecast for next year’s harvest, Vysotskiy said the sowing area could reach 5 million hectares in 2025 versus 4.6 million in 2024. Vysotskiy said most of the sowing area had emerged so far, but the harvest would depend on the weather in winter and spring.

 

Brazil Soybean Planting 86% Completed as of Nov. 21: Agrural

That compares with 80% a week earlier and 74% a year before, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.

2024/25 summer corn planting was 93% completed, which compares with 86% a week earlier and 83% at the same time last year

 

US Poultry Slaughter Rose 3.7% Y/y in October: USDA

Slaughter rose to 6.47 billion pounds, according to the USDA’s monthly poultry slaughter report released on the agency’s website.

  • Chicken live weight rose 4.2% in October from year ago
  • Chickens condemned post-mortem up 13.1% y/y
  • Condemned ante-mortem up 0.2% y/y

 

 

 

 

 

 

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