TOP HEADLINES
Indian farmers shift from rapeseed to other crops as temperatures soar
- Maximum temperature above normal in key producing states
- Higher temperatures thwart germination, wilt newly planted crop
- Rajasthan rapeseed-planted area down 7.2% so far vs year ago
Rapeseed and mustard planting in India is set to drop despite higher prices, as above-average temperatures during the sowing season prompt farmers to switch to crops less affected by heat and which offer equally good returns, industry officials told Reuters.
Lower production of India’s main winter-sown oilseed crop could force the country, the world’s biggest importer of vegetable oils, to increase expensive overseas purchases of cooking oils such as palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil to meet rising demand.
Temperatures stayed higher than usual in October and in the first three weeks of November, which was not good for the crop, said Anil Chatar, a leading trader based in Jaipur in the north-western state of Rajasthan, the biggest rapeseed producer.
“In many places, the early-planted crops didn’t germinate, so farmers ended up switching to different one,” he said.
In Rajasthan, the maximum temperature in key producing districts was 2 to 7 degrees Celsius above normal in the last few weeks, weather department data showed.
Vedpal Tyagi, a farmer from Dholpur, Rajasthan, said he planted rapeseed on 15 acres (6.07 hectares) of his land in October, but on five of those acres, the crop either failed to germinate properly or wilted soon after germination.
“Rather than replanting rapeseed, I went with wheat and potatoes,” Tyagi said. “This year, I cut down the rapeseed area to 10 acres instead of the usual 20 acres.”
In Rajasthan, rapeseed was planted on 3.12 million hectares of land as of Nov. 21, down 7.2% from a year ago, government data showed.
Higher temperatures also affected planting in neighbouring states such as Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Haryana, which could reduce the total area under rapeseed by 10% from last year, said Chatar.
The industry was expecting a larger area under rapeseed after New Delhi increased the minimum support price by 5.3% to 5,950 rupees ($70.61) per 100 kg.
However, farmers are concerned about the pricing because soybean, the main summer-sown oilseed, has been fetching lower prices than the government-set floor price, said Chatar.
Rapeseed competes with wheat and chickpea, prices of which have jumped in recent months, spurring farmers to raise acreage for those crops by cutting the area devoted to rapeseed, said Krishna Khandelwal, a trader based at Niwai, Rajasthan.
India meets nearly a third of its cooking oil demand through imports of palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil from Malaysia, Indonesia, Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine and Russia, according to the trade ministry.
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are down 6 1/2 in SRW, down 7 3/4 in HRW, down 4 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1; Soybeans up 7; Soymeal up $3.40; Soyoil up 0.47.
Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 6 1/4 in SRW, down 8 in HRW, down 6 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 5 1/2; Soybeans down 20 1/4; Soymeal up $2.80; Soyoil down 3.34.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 32 in SRW, down 25 1/4 in HRW, down 31 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 8 1/4; Soybeans down 4; Soymeal down $6.40; Soyoil down 2.76.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 14.2% in SRW, down 14.6% in HRW, down 19.4% in HRS; Corn is down 10.0%; Soybeans down 23.5%; Soymeal down 24.3%; Soyoil down 11.9%.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 25) Soybeans up 7 yuan; Soymeal down 4; Soyoil down 16; Palm oil down 2; Corn down 3 — Malaysian Palm is up 54.
Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 54 ringgit (+1.16%) at 4696.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 114 Corn; 422 Soybeans; 369 Soyoil; 76 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 22 were: SRW Wheat down 9,890 contracts, HRW Wheat down 3,727, Corn down 10,110, Soybeans up 6,123, Soymeal down 6,232, Soyoil down 8,089.
Brazil: Scattered showers became isolated over central Brazil over the weekend, focusing farther to the north. A front moving into Argentina will get into southern areas midweek, and enhance showers over central Brazil by the end of the week. Several more fronts coming from Argentina should keep the country active through next week with mostly good growing conditions.
Argentina: A front started to move into the country on Sunday and is expected to produce scattered showers through Wednesday before moving north. An additional front or two may come through afterward through early next week. Precipitation is forecast to be heavier over northern areas and some areas in the central and south will need more rainfall. The threat of heat and dryness due to the building La Nina may be a threat later in the season as well.
Northern Plains: A system went through over the weekend with scattered showers. Several disturbances will bring down colder air from the Canadian Prairies and occasional snow showers throughout this week and likely next week as well. Temperatures will be very cold and some records may be broken.
Central/Southern Plains: It was quiet over the weekend though a cold front moved in on Sunday and continues to push southeast on Monday, bringing some colder air. A system will develop in southern Colorado Tuesday night and move through on Wednesday with some areas of showers. Another burst of colder air will move through behind it. Several more bursts of colder air will move in over the weekend and next week, keeping temperatures mostly below normal and may produce occasional light showers. The colder air will help to push more wheat into dormancy, mostly in good condition.
Midwest: Showers continued across the east on Friday, but the weekend was mostly quiet. A system moving through Sunday night and Monday will bring temperatures down a bit and produce some light showers. Another system will move through southern areas Wednesday and Thursday with a mix of rain and snow. Cold air flowing in behind it will produce some occasional light snow across the region, and heavier snow east of the Great Lakes. Cold air will have a tendency to continue flowing in next week as well.
Delta: Water levels on the Mississippi River are still above the low mark due to recent heavy rain across the Plains and Midwest, but are slowly falling. More rain is needed in the Ohio Valley to maintain or make long-lasting improvements. A storm that moves through during the middle of the week is forecast to bring through some moderate precipitation in just the right areas and should help with the river levels for a bit. But the pattern will be much drier afterward with cold air descending through the country.
Europe: Showers decreased over the weekend, but another system is moving through Monday and Tuesday with another to follow mid-late week that could stick around the south into next week. Precipitation is helping southeastern areas that have been much drier while keeping soil moisture very high across the rest of the continent. Wheat is going dormant from north to south in mostly good condition, though some wet spots are not all that favorable.
Black Sea: A couple of waves of showers moved through recently, helping to build some soil moisture as wheat continues to go dormant in mostly poor condition, especially in the east. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter to get a good start when the crop comes out of dormancy in the spring.
Australia: Scattered showers moved into eastern areas over the weekend and another system will move through the same areas early-midweek with additional rainfall. The rain is unfavorable for fieldwork and winter harvest, but good for cotton and sorghum planting and establishment. Soil moisture is improving in many areas, though the pattern looks a little drier next week.
The player sheet for Nov. 22 had funds: net sellers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,000 corn, sellers of 2,500 soybeans, sellers of 1,000 soymeal, and sellers of 2,500 soyoil.
TENDERS
- SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 198,000 tons of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations, all for delivery in the 2024/25 marketing year.
- FEED BARLEY TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to sell and export about 150,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
- CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased an estimated 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Friday without issuing an international tender.
- WHEAT PURCHASE: A flour mill based in Bahrain last week purchased about 25,000 metric tons of wheat expected to be sourced from Australia.
PENDING TENDERS
- RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 40,000 metric tons of rice to be sourced from the United States
- WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tons of milling wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
- FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
- RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
- WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat for shipment to two ports only
TODAY
US Cattle on Feed Placements Rose to 2.29M Head in Oct.
Placements onto feedlots of capacity of 1,000 or more rose 5.3% from a year ago, according to the USDA’s monthly report.
- Analysts were expecting a rise of 3.4%
- The US feedlot herd as of Nov. 1 were up 0.3% to 11.986m head
- Cattle marketed from feedlots increased 4.7% to 1.845m head
Brazil 2024/2025 soybean planting at 83.29% of expected total area, says consultancy
BRAZIL FARMERS PLANT 83.29% OF 2024/2025 SOYBEAN EXPECTED AREA VERSUS 74.69% AT THIS TIME LAST YEAR – PATRIA AGRONEGOCIOS
Ukraine’s Corn Harvest Falls 5% Y/y to 23.6m Tons So Far
Ukrainian farmers harvested 23.6 million tons of corn as of the third week of November, down from about 24.9m tons at the same time last year, the Agriculture Ministry says in statement on website.
- Total grain harvest declined 3.8% year-on-year to 53.4m tons, and includes:
- 22.4m tons of wheat, almost on par with 22.5m tons last year;
- 5.6m tons of barley, down 5% from 5.9m tons last year
- Sunflower harvest declined over 15% y/y to 10.1m tons
- Soybean harvest rose 25% to 6m tons
- Rapeseed harvest declined by 22% to 3.5m tons
- Harvesting of wheat, barley and rapeseed is completed and most other crops are close to the finish
SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Global demand slows down and presses down quotations
The end of the harvesting in the United States, the good pace of sowing activities in Brazil and in Argentina and the fact that the global demand has slowed down pressed down soybean values this week. However, the dollar valuation against Real limited price drops in Brazil.
Players from the industry in Brazil, who had been closing trades of high volumes over the last weeks, are now unwilling to trade, in general. As for sellers, many of them claim they do not have the need to make cash flow at this moment.
On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices moved down 1.1% from Nov. 13-21 in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 1.6% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).
The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Paranaguá) dropped 0.9% from November 13-21, closing at BRL 142.39 per 60-kg bag yesterday. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) decreased 0.7% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 139.77 per 60-kg bag on Nov. 21. Dollar values rose 0.3% against Real from November 13-21, closing at BRL 5.818 on Nov. 21.
BYPRODUCTS – On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, soymeal prices downed 1.9% between November 13 and 21. The Brazilian value of soy oil dropped 2.2%, at 7,517.48 BRL per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on Nov. 21.
CROPS – Conab indicates that 73.8% of the area had been planted up to Nov. 17, higher than the 65.4% verified one year ago.
CORN/CEPEA: Purchasers are unwilling to trade; values move down
The upward trend for corn prices (which had been observed since August) was interrupted this week in part of regions surveyed by Cepea in Brazil. This scenario is related to the fact that purchasers are unwilling to trade – it is worth noting that they were closing deals up to last week, aiming to restore inventories.
Many producers, especially from São Paulo state, are away from closing trades, since they are focused on the development of the summer crop, which has been favored by weather conditions in most regions.
Better weather conditions bring a certain relief for consumers, since they now expect a good production in the summer crop and that the second crop planting activities take place in the desirable period. Moreover, exports from Brazil are not very high this season, keeping final stocks close to those observed last year, at roughly 5 million tons.
PRICES – The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) dropped 1.6% between November 14 and 21, closing at BRL 73.46 per 60-kilo bag on Nov. 21. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, corn values rose 1% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) but remained stable in the wholesale market (deals between processors) from November 14-21.
PORTS – Brazilian shipments totaled 2.75 million tons of corn in the first ten producing days of this month, accounting for 37% of the total volume exported in the same month last year – data from Secex. The daily pace is 25% below that verified in November/23. The daily pace of imports, in turn, is 64% higher than last year, totaling 175.9 thousand tons.
Anec estimates that sales to the international market are likely to hit 5.57 million tons in November, below the 7.4 million tons exported in November/23.
Corn quotations dropped only 0.04% from Nov. 14-21 at the port of Paranaguá (PR) and 1% in Santos (SP). Dollar quotations increased 0.7% against Real in the same comparison, closing at BRL 5.818 on Nov. 21.
CROPS – Up to November 17, the 2024/25 summer crop planting had reached 52.4% of the area in Brazil, 3.4 percentage points more than in the same period last year – data from Conab.
China approves building a hub for the allocation of bulk commodities in Zhejiang
China’s Commerce Ministry said on Monday that plans for building a hub for the allocation of bulk commodities in the free-trade zone in eastern China’s Zhejiang province have been approved.
It will support the building of bonded soybean trading warehouses in Zhoushan port in Zhejiang, the ministry said in a statement.
It will also allow relevant business entities to sell and transfer spot soybeans in bonded warehouses through a soybean trading centre.
Russia to export up to 60 mln metric tons of grain this season, senior official forecasts
Russian grain exports will amount to around 55-60 million metric tons in the current agricultural season from July 1, 2024 to June 30, 2025, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev said in an interview with the Expert.ru news webiste. “The gross grain harvest will total 130 million metric tons, including 83 million metric tons of wheat, which will enable…
“The gross grain harvest will total 130 million metric tons, including 83 million metric tons of wheat, which will enable [Russia] to export around 55-60 million metric tons of grain this agricultural season,” the senior Russian official said.
According to Patrushev, Russian farmers faced challenging weather this year. “Nevertheless, given the advanced technological capabilities of our agricultural producers, we anticipate a decent harvest this year which will fully meet domestic market demand and sustain a high export potential in terms of raw materials and processed food,” the deputy premier underscored.
In the previous agricultural season, Russia exported 72 million metric tons of grain, including 54.1 million metric tons of wheat
Brazil Ethanol Makers Rally on Petrobras’ Joint Venture Plan
- Oil firm says it is in talks with large biofuel companies
- Bet on ethanol seen as hedge against declining gasoline demand
Brazilian ethanol producers including Raizen SA and Cosan SA rallied after Petrobras announced that it was in talks with “large” producers of the biofuel to create a joint venture.
Raizen rose as much as 5.8% while Cosan rose as much as 7.4%, the biggest intraday gains in months.
Petroleo Brasileiro SA plans to return to the ethanol market as a hedge against declining gasoline demand, Mauricio Tolmasquim, the head of energy transition projects, said during a press conference on Friday. The state-controlled oil giant is looking at ethanol made from sugar cane as well as corn, he said. Petrobras plans to reach of 2 billion litters of ethanol per year, he said.
“How can we remain large with gasoline losing market share? By entering our main competitor, ethanol,” said Tolmasquim, who said gasoline demand is expected to decline in the long term.
The Rio de Janeiro-based company has earmarked $2.2 billion in investments in ethanol in its latest five-year business plan. Tolmasquim said the company plans to enter the ethanol business quickly, without providing more details.
If it does move forward with a deal on ethanol, Petrobras’ bet on that market would come years after its oil peers acquired stakes in biofuel-making companies. Shell Plc owns a stake in top sugar-cane ethanol maker Raizen, and BP Plc recently took full ownership of a sugar and ethanol business that was formerly a joint venture with Bunge Global SA. Fuel distribution company Vibra Energia SA also has a joint-venture with trader Copersucar SA in an ethanol business named Evolua.
US Beef Production Up 4.1% This Week, Pork Down: USDA
US federally inspected beef production rises to 547m pounds for the week ending Nov. 23 from 526m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.
- Cattle slaughter up 4.1% from a week ago to 631m head
- Pork production down 2.6% from a week ago, hog slaughter falls 2.8%
- For the year, beef production is 0.1% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 1.7% above
US Egg Production Fell 3.7% in October From Year Ago: USDA
The US produced 9.19b eggs in October vs 9.54b in the same period a year ago, according to a report from the USDA.
- Output of table eggs fell 4.2% y/y to 7.89b
- Hatching eggs down 0.5% to 1.3b
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