Global Ag News for Nov 22.24

TOP HEADLINES

IGC Cuts 2024-25 Global Grain Stockpile Outlook to 10-Year Low

Global grain stockpiles for the 2024-25 season are now seen at 576 million tons, down from October’s estimate of 584 million tons, the International Grains Council said Thursday.

  • That would be the smallest in 10 years, according to the IGC, which lowered its total grains production estimate and raised its demand forecast
    • Total grain production estimate cut to 2.31b tons from 2.32b tons
  • Stockpile estimates for certain crops:
    • Wheat now seen at 263m tons, down from previous outlook of 266m tons
    • Corn estimated at 275m tons, down from 279m tons
    • Soybeans forecast at 82m tons, versus 86m tons
    • Rice outlook little changed at 179m tons

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1/4 in SRW, up 1 1/2 in HRW, up 3 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 1 3/4; Soybeans up 1/4; Soymeal up $0.50; Soyoil down 0.19.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 16 in SRW, up 16 1/2 in HRW, up 14 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 2 3/4; Soybeans down 20 1/4; Soymeal down $0.90; Soyoil down 3.39.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 20 1/2 in SRW, down 14 1/4 in HRW, down 22 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 12; Soybeans down 16 1/2; Soymeal down $11.40; Soyoil down 2.98.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 12.6% in SRW, down 13.2% in HRW, down 18.1% in HRS; Corn is down 9.0%; Soybeans down 24.4%; Soymeal down 25.3%; Soyoil down 12.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 25) Soybeans down 8 yuan; Soymeal down 29; Soyoil down 82; Palm oil down 96; Corn up 5 — Malaysian Palm is down 130.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 130 ringgit (-2.72%) at 4642.

There were changes in registrations (-33 Soybeans). Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 114 Corn; 422 Soybeans; 369 Soyoil; 76 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 21 were: SRW Wheat down 768 contracts, HRW Wheat up 26, Corn down 14,387, Soybeans up 4,589, Soymeal up 4,757, Soyoil up 4,067.

 

Brazil: Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, though they are forecast to weaken and become more isolated over the weekend. That should be brief as the showers fill back in later next week, and mostly favorable conditions continue for soybean establishment and growth. Southern areas have seen scattered showers the last couple of days that continue through Thursday. More rain is forecast to move in during the middle of next week that should keep conditions mostly favorable as well.

Argentina: Though some isolated showers may move through over the next couple of days, most areas will remain dry. Another system moves through this weekend into early next week with widespread rainfall being forecast again. Some patches are starting to dry out, and if the system misses these same areas, there could be some poor growing conditions. But overall, the weather is still mostly favorable in the country. The threat of heat and dryness due to the building La Nina may be a threat later in the season as well.

Northern Plains: Snow and breezy winds linger on Wednesday. Another system will move through over the weekend and could produce some beneficial precipitation in spots as well. Drought is intense in much of the region, though some areas are getting some help while others fall further behind.

Central/Southern Plains: A system will likely miss to the north this weekend, but a couple more are possible next week, keeping the region active but eventually bringing some cold air in as well. Recent precipitation has been able to reduce drought significantly over the last few weeks, favorable for winter wheat that is starting to go dormant and should get more of a push next week.

Midwest: Scattered showers went through with a powerful storm earlier this week. A secondary low will form over Michigan on Wednesday, keeping showers around through the end of the week, including some bursts of snow. The pattern stays active going into December, so drought areas will get more chances for rain next week and colder air should move in at that time as well, helping to cool soil temperatures for fall fertilizer application in more areas.

Delta: Water levels on the Mississippi River are still above the low mark due to recent heavy rain across the Plains and Midwest. More rain is needed in the Ohio Valley to maintain or make long-lasting improvements, but there is some potential there. A storm that lingers this week will be helpful and more systems are forecast for next week that could help as well.

Europe: Widespread showers continue across the continent throughout the week. That will help southeastern areas that have been much drier while keeping soil moisture very high across the rest of the continent. Though the pattern quiets down somewhat next week, additional showers and systems are still expected. Wheat is going dormant from north to south in mostly good condition, though some wet spots are not all that favorable.

Black Sea: Rainfall deficits continue to be very large in most the eastern half of the region. It will be more active this week with a couple of fronts bringing scattered showers through in a couple of waves, but wheat is going dormant and unable to use the rain at the moment. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter to get a good start when the crop comes out of dormancy in the spring.

Australia: Scattered showers have increased across much of the country over the last few days, unfavorable for fieldwork and winter harvest, but good for cotton and sorghum planting and establishment. A system in the west will bring showers to the east this weekend and next week and more showers are expected to develop for the west next week. Overall, this should improve soil moisture in a lot of areas.

 

The player sheet for Nov. 21 had funds: net sellers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 4,500 corn, sellers of 7,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,500 soymeal, and sellers of 6,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

  • SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 198,000 tons of U.S. soybeans to China and another 135,000 metric tons to unknown destinations, all for delivery in the 2024/25 marketing year.
  • SOYMEAL SALES: USDA also confirmed private sales of 133,000 tons of U.S. soybean cake and meal to the Philippines, for delivery in the 2024/25 marketing year.
  • FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
  • CORN PURCHASE: South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased up to 66,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Wednesday without an international tender being issued
  • CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased an estimated 65,000 to 70,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Thursday without issuing an international tender
  • WHEAT PURCHASE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 80,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the U.S. in an international tender on Thursday
  • BARLEY PURCHASE: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL is believed to have purchased about 60,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender seeking around 120,000 tons this week.
  • DURUM WHEAT PURCHASE UPDATE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have purchased a small additional volume of durum wheat in negotiations in an international tender which continued on Wednesday.
  • WHEAT PURCHASE: A flour mill based in Bahrain last week purchased about 25,000 metric tons of wheat expected to be sourced from Australia 

PENDING TENDERS

  • RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 40,000 metric tons of rice to be sourced from the United States
  • WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tons of milling wheat.
  • WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
  • RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

TODAY

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Nov. 14, according to data on the USDA’s website.

  • Top buyer of soybeans: China with 1.2m tons
  • Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 787k tons
  • Top buyer of wheat: South Korea with 200k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Nov. 14, according to data on the USDA’s website.

  • Mexico bought 4.1k tons of the 20.5k tons of pork sold in the week
  • Japan led in beef purchases

 

Argentine Soy, Corn, Wheat Estimates Nov. 21: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

  • 2024-25 soybean planting advances to 35.8% complete from 20.1% in the prior week
  • Corn and soybean area planted estimates are maintained

 

Argentina’s soy planting reaches full speed, first plants show good condition 

Argentina’s 2024/25 soybean planting is progressing rapidly with recent rains helping the first plants, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said on Thursday.

Soybean planting in the world’s top exporter of soybean oil and meal advanced by 16 percentage points over the past week, to reach 35.8% of the 18.6 million hectares estimated for this season, according to the exchange weekly crop report.

The institution linked the progress to “good surface moisture conditions across a large portion of the agricultural area.”

It also said that farmers have reported good plant stand results, despite isolated cases where seed quality wasn’t up to standard.

On the other hand, 2024/25 corn planting only advanced 0.8 percentage point over the last week, as farmers prioritized soybean planting.

Farmers have sowed 39.4% of the 6.3 million hectares of cornfields expected for the season.

Argentina, the world’s third-largest corn exporter and a key global supplier of wheat, has harvested 29.3% of the 18.6 million of wheat expected, the exchange added.

 

French Corn Harvest 82% Complete vs 5-Yr Average of 96%: AgriMer

About 82% of the French corn crop was harvested as of Monday, up from 71% the previous week but still lagging behind the five-year average of 96%, FranceAgriMer said on its website.

  • About 90% of the French soft-wheat crop was planted as of Monday, compared with a five-year average of 87%
  • Some 88% of the soft-wheat was in “good” or “very good” condition, steady from a year earlier
  • 96% of the winter-barley crop was planted, compared with a five-year average of 93%
  • Some 84% of the winter barley was in “good” or “very good” condition, steady from a year earlier
  • 52% of the durum-wheat crop was planted, compared with a five-year average of 56%

 

Western Australia on Track for Unexpectedly Large Wheat Crop

  • GIWA sees state producing 10.33 million tons in 2024/25
  • The harvest forecast may offset worries over Black Sea output

Western Australia is on track for a surprise bumper wheat crop, despite low rainfall earlier in the season that had been expected to crimp output.

Australia’s top wheat-producing state is set to produce 10.33 million tons in the 2024/25 season, according to the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia. That would be the third-biggest harvest on record, and is about 1 million tons higher that what the group was expecting in September, when a lack of spring rain was threatening output.

An unexpected increase in wheat exports from Australia may help alleviate concerns about potential disruptions to shipments from the Black Sea region as the war in Ukraine intensifies. Wheat futures are on track for their biggest weekly gain in two months due to nervousness over the escalating conflict.

Wheat crops are yielding more than expected, said agronomist and GIWA report writer Michael Lamond, who lives on a farm on the western rim of the grain belt. “The leaves didn’t look to great prior to harvest, with damaged and yellowing leaves. But they’re yielding well.”

The Western Australian harvest has, however, been delayed by heavy rain this week. Those wet conditions are expected to continue into next week, according to weather forecaster Maxar.

The Australia Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences predicted in September that the country as a whole would produce 31.8 million metric tons of wheat in the 2024-25 season, 23% higher than the previous harvest.

Other GIWA crop estimates from the November report:

  • Barley: 4.52m tons, up from 4.32m in October
  • Canola: 2.59m tons, from 2.36m in October
  • Oats: 590,000 tons, unchanged from October

 

Ukraine Grain Exports Up 43% Y/y to 17.2m Tons This Season

Ukraine’s grain exports reached 17.2m tons in the season that started July 1, compared with 12m tons in the same period a year ago, the Agriculture Ministry says on its website.

  • Total exports include:
    • 8.6m tons of wheat, up 57% from the same period a year ago
    • 1.8m tons of barley
    • 6.5m tons of corn, up 16% compared to last year
  • Total grain exports this months have so far reached almost 3m tons
  • Ukraine’s grain and legumes harvest totaled 71.4m tons as of mid November
  • Ukraine’s farmers have already planted 6.14m hectares of winter crops, almost 98% of what was planned and slightly ahead of last year

 

India wheat slightly down on warmer temperatures

2025/26 INDIA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 112.4 [106.2–115.4] MILLION TONS, DOWN <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 India wheat production is slightly lowered by <1% from our previous estimate to 112.4 million metric tons (MMT) amid a decline in yield estimates in key producing Northern states, Haryana, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh due to recent and forecasted warmer temperatures that are not ideal for India wheat during its germination period. Over the past two weeks, precipitation levels over the key producing northern wheat states were near normal, while temperatures were 1-4 °C above trend. According to LSEG’s latest weather forecast, warmer temperatures will prevail over India throughout the next 10-days, alongside near normal precipitation levels.

Yields will depend heavily on temperatures/precipitation during the critical growth stages (January-April). We will periodically update production upon changes in weather, soil moisture, and satellite imagery as the season progresses.

 

Romanian, Bulgarian wheat prices jump to 5.5-month high on Black Sea supply woes

Romanian and Bulgarian wheat export quotes jumped to a 5.5-month high during the week running from November 18-22 on concerns over tightening Black Sea supplies in the current July-June 2024/25 marketing season. Russia’s launch of the intercontinental missile in Ukraine underpinned the lingering supply woes. Sunflower seed prices in Romania and Bulgaria eased amid cooling vegetable oil market sentiment coupled with improved farmer supplies.

Russia’s attack with a hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Thursday, November 21, never before used in the Russia-Ukraine war, kept Black Sea supply woes in the market focus and pushed wheat prices up. Sliding wheat production estimates for the current July-June 2024/25 marketing year supported the supply woes.

FOB Constanta quotes for Romanian 12.5% protein wheat jumped to €229-235 per tonne for December delivery from €219-225 last week, marking a 5.5-month high, LSEG’s records showed. DAP Constanta quotes for 12.5% protein wheat rose to €219-225 per tonne for November-December delivery from €212-220 last week.

FOB Varna quotes for Bulgarian 11.5% protein wheat climbed to €221-232 per tonne for December delivery from €214-217 a week before, also indicating a 5.5-month high, according to LSEG data. DAP-Varna wheat quotes moved up to €214-225 per tonne for November-December delivery compared to €207-210 a week before.

DAP Varna sunflower seed quotes eased to $620-640 per tonne for November-December delivery from $630-640 last week, remaining at an over 2-year high last time seen in November 2022, according to LSEG’s records. Some of the Bulgaria-based crushers lowered their purchasing prices and the farmers decided to sell some lots to cover their costs.

Romanian sunflower seed quotes remained stable from last week and were assessed at $590-600 per tonne for November-December delivery on a DAP Constanta basis, also indicating an over 2-year high, LSEG’s data showed. Some of the Romanian farmers decided to come into business worrying about the further price trend and cut their asking prices closer to the purchasing indications. The crusher ideas also eased following sliding sunflower oil prices. SUNF-EXTANK-P1

The Romanian and Bulgarian corn market was slow this week. FOB Constanta/Varna quotes for corn showed little movement compared to last week and remained at €202-210 per tonne for December delivery. DAP Constanta/Varna corn quotes also remained unchanged from last week and were set at €192-200 per tonne for November-December delivery.

 

China Opens Door to Brazil Sorghum in Blow to US Farmers

China is opening its market to sorghum from Brazil, posing a potential blow to US producers highly reliant on exports to the Asian nation.

China is the world’s largest consumer of sorghum — the country imported 8.3 million metric tons of the ancient grain in the 2023-24 marketing year, using it for everything from animal feed to making the liquor baijiu, according to US Department of Agriculture data. The US has provided the bulk of that, shipping almost 5.8 million metric tons to China.

That picture could change after Chinese President Xi Jinping and his counterpart Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva signed agreements this week to open new markets for Brazilian grapes, sesame, sorghum and fish products. It’s the latest move by China to further diversify away from the US as President-elect Donald Trump threatens to slap tariffs on Chinese products.

While agricultural powerhouse Brazil has barely exported sorghum in the past, its output has increased to about 4.6 million tons. The grain is more resistant to droughts, while growing ethanol production is driving up demand.

The agreement between China and Brazil came during Xi’s official visit to the South American country during the G-20 summit.

 

Brazilian meatpacker JBS agrees to invest $2.5 bln in Nigeria, build six factories

Brazilian meatpacker JBS JBSS3.SA said on Thursday it has signed a memorandum of understanding with Nigeria’s government for a $2.5 billion investment plan in the African country, including the building of six new factories.

In a statement, JBS said three of the factories would deal in poultry, two in beef and one in pork.

Based on the memorandum of understanding, JBS said it will build up a five-year investment plan in Nigeria, including feasibility studies, budget estimates and an action plan for local supply chain development.

The government of Nigeria, in turn, would ensure the economic, sanitary and regulatory conditions needed for the project’s viability, JBS added.

 

LIVESTOCK: US Red Meat Production Rose 5.2% Y/y in October

Commercial beef and pork production rose to 5.02b pounds in Oct., according to the USDA’s monthly livestock slaughter report.

  • Beef production up 5.4% y/y to 2.47b pounds
  • Oct. cattle slaughter totaled 2.86m head, a 1.2% increase from a year ago
    • Avg live weight rose by 44 pounds from last year to 1,418 pounds
  • Pork production up 5.2% y/y to 2.54b pounds
  • Hog slaughter increased 4.2% y/y to 11,914m head
    • Avg live weight was 287 pounds vs 285 pounds a year ago

 

Flash Drought Gripping US Threatens to Raise Food Prices in 2025

  • Beef prices likely to rise as dry conditions shrivel grasses
  • Winter wheat vulnerable as rain fails to arrive across Plains

A flash drought that has taken hold of much of the US is threatening to push beef prices higher and could damage winter wheat crops across the Great Plains.

The amount of land affected by all classes of drought increased through October across the country and now covers more than 45% of the contiguous US, Mark Svoboda, director of the National Drought Mitigation Center, said in a call with reporters. About 31% of that area was in drought at the start of last month.

‘It meets the criteria of a flash drought,” Svoboda said. “It really is the textbook definition of a rapidly intensifying drought.”

While the dryness in the East has led to wildfires and water shortages, it’s the drought across the Great Plains that has led to higher beef prices, which will linger into 2025, Svoboda said. That’s because there is less vegetation to feed livestock, which has sometimes led to herds being culled early.

Meanwhile, as much as 50% of the winter wheat crop is in danger because the plants need soil moisture to strengthen and to be insulated from freezes, Svoboda said.

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Decline: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 782k tons in the week ending Nov. 16 from 766k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

  • Barge shipments of corn rose 17.5% from the previous week
  • Soybean shipments down 7.4% w/w
  • St. Louis barge rates were $16.24 per short ton, a decline of $1.52 from the previous week

 

US Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending Nov. 19: USDA

The following table shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending Nov. 19, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

  • Winter wheat experiencing moderate to intense drought fell to 40% last week from 43% in the previous week
  • This follows a nationwide trend of reduced drought conditions last week

 

 

 

 

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