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Ukraine’s Farmers Aren’t Threat to EU, Agriculture Minister Says
Ukraine’s new agriculture minister said that the European Union should support his country’s farmers and not treat them as a threat to their counterparts in the bloc.
“The main message is that we are not a threat, we are a partner,” Vitaliy Koval said in an interview in Brussels. “With us, Europe will become strong and so will we. It’s a two-way traffic and we will not let you down.”
Koval came to Brussels this week seeking help for Ukraine to export its products after 1,000 days of Russia’s invasion. He separately met with agriculture ministers from neighboring nations, including Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, which continue to ban the import of Ukrainian goods while allowing transit to third countries.
Ukraine exported €10 billion ($10.6 billion) of agriculture products to the bloc in the first nine months of this year, compared to almost €7 billion in all of pre-war 2021, noted outgoing EU agriculture commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski. The sharp rise in Ukrainian exports was part of what spurred EU farmers to take to the streets earlier this year to protest alleged unfair treatment, along with high production costs and administrative burden.
Ukraine has been benefiting from tariff-free trade measures with the bloc, which are set to expire next June. Kyiv is looking for a more permanent trade arrangement.
‘More Transparent’
“Our rhetoric is clear, that during the war we need concrete steps to support the agricultural sector in Ukraine, here and now, and not some time in a year or two,” Koval said. “We are ready to be predictable and open. We understand that we need to take steps very quickly and become more transparent to the EU.”
The EU needs to decide which measures will continue and which will be dropped, Istvan Nagy, the agriculture minister for Hungary, which holds the EU’s rotating presidency, told reporters in Brussels on Monday.
“It is important that we define with precision what will be the shape of the next free trade agreement with Ukraine,” he said.
Koval lamented that he often hears the phrase “you are too big for us” from European counterparts, adding that the hardships of other EU farmers don’t compare to those of Ukrainian farmers working in war conditions. “We are the first country in the world that at the time of war provides for global food security with our food reaching 400 million people,” Koval said.
The country is looking for additional markets in the so-called Global South, as well as southeast Asia, and wants to process more of its products at home under a new strategy for agricultural development through 2030 that was adopted last week.
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are down 4 in SRW, down 4 in HRW, down 3 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 2; Soybeans down 8 3/4; Soymeal down $1.10; Soyoil down 0.72.
For the week so far wheat prices are up 10 3/4 in SRW, up 14 in HRW, up 11 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans down 9 1/4; Soymeal down $1.40; Soyoil down 1.46.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 26 1/2 in SRW, down 17 1/2 in HRW, down 26 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 9 3/4; Soybeans down 4 3/4; Soymeal down $12.00; Soyoil down 0.87.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 13.0% in SRW, down 13.3% in HRW, down 19.2% in HRS; Corn is down 9.8%; Soybeans down 23.5%; Soymeal down 25.5%; Soyoil down 8.2%.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 25) Soybeans down 5 yuan; Soymeal down 5; Soyoil up 40; Palm oil up 72; Corn down 7 — Malaysian Palm is down 109.
Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 109 ringgit (-2.21%) at 4815.
There were changes in registrations (-22 Soybeans). Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 114 Corn; 455 Soybeans; 369 Soyoil; 76 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 19 were: SRW Wheat down 9,256 contracts, HRW Wheat down 9,693, Corn down 4,235, Soybeans up 2,133, Soymeal down 2,196, Soyoil up 2,605.
Brazil: Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, being favorable for soybean establishment and growth. Southern areas will see a system move through with better coverage and amounts of rain through Thursday. Overall conditions are still mostly favorable in the country.
Argentina: A system moved through with scattered showers and thunderstorms this weekend, but missed a key area in the central that has been drier lately. Though some isolated showers may move through this week, most areas will remain dry. Another system moves through this weekend into early next week with widespread rainfall being forecast again. Though some patches are starting to dry out, the weather is still mostly favorable in the country. The threat of heat and dryness due to the building La Nina may be a threat later in the season as well.
Northern Plains: A system is moving into Canada, but still producing showers over North Dakota. The showers will turn to snow on Tuesday, lingering with breezy winds through Wednesday. Another system will move through over the weekend and could produce some beneficial precipitation as well. Though drought is intense in much of the region, this pattern should help out somewhat.
Central/Southern Plains: A system moved through the region wiht heavy rain and thunderstorms over the last two days. Another system could go through over the weekend, though will probably stay north, and a couple more are possible next week, keeping the region active but eventually bringing some cold air in. Recent precipitation has been able to reduce drought significantly over the last few weeks, favorable for winter wheat that is starting to go dormant and should get more of a push next week.
Midwest: A storm system brought a big shield of precipitation through western areas on Monday. The system continues to lift north into Canada on Tuesday while the cold front pushes eastward with continued showers. A secondary low will form over Michigan on Wednesday, keeping showers around through the end of the week, including some bursts of snow. The pattern stays active going into December, so drought areas will get more chances for rain next week and colder air should move in that time as well, helping to cool soil temperatures for fall application in more areas.
Delta: Water levels on the Mississippi River have risen due to recent heavy rain across the Plains and Midwest. More rain is needed in the Ohio Valley to maintain or make long-lasting improvements, but there is some potential there. A storm that moves through this week will be helpful and more systems are forecast for next week as well.
Europe: Widespread showers continue across the continent throughout the week. That will help southeastern areas that have been much drier while keeping soil moisture very high across the rest of the continent. Though the pattern quiets down next week, additional showers and systems are still expected. Wheat is going dormant from north to south in mostly good condition, though some wet spots are not all that favorable.
Black Sea: Rainfall deficits continue to be very large in most the eastern half of the region. It will be more active this week with a couple of fronts bringing scattered showers through in a couple of waves, but wheat is going dormant and unable to use the rain in most areas. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter to get a good start when the crop comes out of dormancy in the spring.
Australia: Scattered showers went through eastern areas over the weekend and western areas on Monday, unfavorable for fieldwork and winter harvest, but good for cotton and sorghum planting and establishment. The pattern is getting somewhat more active for the second half of November, which will be helpful in most areas.
The player sheet for Nov. 19 had funds: net buyers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,500 corn, buyers of 4,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,000 soymeal, and sellers of 2,500 soyoil.
TENDERS
- CORN PURCHASE: Algerian state agency ONAB is believed to have bought an unknown volume of animal feed corn to be sourced from Argentina or Brazil in an international tender for up to 240,000 tons which closed on Tuesday
- NO PURCHASE IN WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which closed on Tuesday.
- WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 80,000 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States
PENDING TENDERS
- BARLEY TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued an international tender to purchase at least 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
- BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
- DURUM TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to purchase a nominal 50,000 metric tons of durum wheat
- RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 40,000 metric tons of rice to be sourced from the United States.
- WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tons of milling wheat.
- RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
TODAY
ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report
Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Nov. 15 are based on seven analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
- Production seen lower than last week at 1.1m b/d
- Stockpile avg est. 22.206m bbl vs 22.039m a week ago
China’s October soy imports from US climb for seventh month
China’s soybean imports from the U.S. more than doubled in October from a year earlier, marking a seventh month of growth, as buyers accelerated shipments fearing a rise in trade tensions if Donald Trump were to return to the White House.
Trump won the U.S. presidential election the following month in a comeback that is likely to reignite trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.
According to traders and analysts, tariff threats in Trump’s campaign speeches have led some Chinese importers to shun U.S. shipments starting in January.
China, the world’s largest soybean buyer, imported 541,434 metric tons of soybeans from the United States last month, up from 228,253 tons a year ago, according to the General Administration of Customs data on Wednesday.
However, the bulk of China’s imports for October came from Brazil, with 8.09 million metric tons imported overall.
Arrivals from the U.S have been surging since April, and China is on track for a record soybean import this year due to a rush to stockpile U.S beans. As of the January-October period, total U.S. soybean imports stood at 89.94 million tons.
Arrivals from Argentina for the month surged to 1.36 million tons from 1,077 tons a year earlier.
Imports from larger producer Brazil in October rose 15% to 5.53 million tons from last year. Total shipments from Brazil over January-October rose 13.6% year-on-year to 67.8 million tons. Arrivals from the U.S. fell 13% to 15.1 million metric tons.
China’s soybean imports are expected to drop to 98.8 million metric tons for the year ending September 2025, down from 109.4 million tons the previous year, According to an executive from China National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Corporation.
Brazil Soybean Crop and Exports to Reach Records in 2025: Abiove
Brazilian 2025 soybean-production estimate was raised to a record 167.7m tons from 153.3m this year, industry group says in a statement.
- Export forecast raised to a record 104.1m tons, compared to 98.3 m for 2024
- Abiove forecasts cover January-to-December period
- Total processing for 2025 was set to reach 57m tons against 54.5m this year
- Even with higher processing, crop size will almost double Brazil’s soybean ending stocks to 8.8m tons from 4.6m in 2024
- Soymeal ending stocks should rise 65% to 4m tons from 2.4m
- Soyoil-export estimate reduced while production outlook raised, driving a 19% increase in 2025 ending stock forecast
- Overall, Brazilian soy-complex exports seen generating $50.8 billion in revenue: Abiove
EU Soft-Wheat Exports Fall 31% Y/y in Season to Nov. 17
EU soft wheat exports in the season that started July 1 totaled 8.79m tons as of Nov. 17, compared with 12.7m tons a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.
- Leading destinations included Nigeria with about 1.41m tons, the UK with 696k tons and Egypt with 692k tons
- Barley exports were 1.83m tons, down 37% y/y
- Corn imports totaled 7.6mm tons, up 11% y/y
- NOTE: Click here for figures on oilseed trade
- NOTE: Export data for Italy are not complete for the last five weeks; data for France not complete since the beginning of calendar year 2024; Bulgaria and Ireland data incomplete since the start of marketing year 2023-24
Houthi Missile Attacks Targeted Bulk Carrier Anadolu S: Manager
Yemen’s Houthis targeted bulk carrier Anadolu S in two missile attacks on Nov. 17-18, but neither hit the vessel, the ship’s manager, Oras Shipping, says via text.
- First attack was in Red Sea late Sunday, with a missile falling into the sea around 500 meters from the ship, Oras Manager Erhan Gocmen says
- Second attack, also off target, was in Gulf of Aden on Monday morning
- Incident caused no injuries or damage to vessel
- Ship is carrying grain from Ukraine to Pakistan: Oras
- Company’s other ships had recently transited area without issue
- Ship’s master was contacted via radio before Sunday’s attack by an individual who didn’t introduce themselves; vessel was ordered to turn north, but didn’t obey
Export duty on Russian wheat rises 4.7% to 2,689.7 rubles per tonne on Nov 20 – Agriculture Ministry
The export duty on Russian wheat rises 4.7% to 2,689.7 rubles per tonne in the week starting November 20 from 2,569.2 rubles per tonne during the previous duty period, the Agriculture Ministry said.
The duty on barley decreases to 1,233.2 rubles per tonne from 1,367.4 rubles per tonne the previous week, and the duty on corn declines to 3,065.5 rubles per tonne from 3,288.4 rubles per tonne.
Duty rates are based on indicative prices of $222.80 per tonne for wheat against $221.90 per tonne in the previous period, $190.10 per tonne for barley versus $192.80 per tonne, and $216.80 per tonne for corn against $220.90 per tonne.
The duties are valid until November 26, inclusive.
Russia introduced a grain damper mechanism on June 2, 2021, which stipulates floating duties on the export of wheat, corn and barley and the return of funds received from them to subsidize agricultural producers. The duties are calculated weekly from indicators based on the prices of export contracts registered on the Moscow Exchange (MOEX: MOEX). Duty rates were calculated in dollars initially and in rubles since July 2022. The duty is 70% of the difference between reference and indicative prices.
The Agriculture Ministry on June 1, 2023, hiked the reference price for calculating the export duty on wheat to 17,000 rubles per tonne from 15,000 rubles per tonne, and the reference price on barley and corn to 15,875 rubles per tonne from 13,875 rubles per tonne. These rose to 18,000 rubles for wheat and 16,875 rubles for barley and corn on June 28, 2024.
Argentina announces tender to privatize Paraguay-Parana waterway
The Argentine government will call for a national and international public tender to privatize its stretch of the Paraguay-Parana waterway through a 30-year concession, cabinet chief Guillermo Francos said on Tuesday.
The waterway, a natural river corridor that extends through the Parana and Paraguay rivers, is a key transport route to the sea from inland areas of Paraguay, Bolivia and southern Brazil.
Argentina uses the 3,400 km-long (2,100 mile-long) waterway to move nearly 80% its foreign trade, including its massive farm exports such as processed soybeans, corn and wheat.
Francos said the concession would include the dredging and buoying of the Paraguay and Parana rivers and would call for the participation of the world’s top river-maritime operators.
The cabinet chief said privatization would entail significant upgrades to the trade route, including new satellite and radar systems for ship tracking and new signage and control measures aimed at fighting drug trafficking.
Japan’s September corn usage in animal feed soars
Japan’s usage of corn in animal feed in September rose 48.0% from a year earlier, preliminary data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries showed on Wednesday.
2025/26 Ukraine wheat production down amid acreage adjustments
2025/26 UKRAINE WHEAT PRODUCTION: 20.3 [19.3-21.3] MILLION TONS, DOWN 2.1 % FROM LAST UPDATE
Lower acreage (4.63 million hectares) reduces Ukrainian wheat production to 20.3 [19.3-21.3] million tons (mmt). Production for Ukraine excluding Crimea and occupied oblasts (Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Kherson) is placed at 19.1 million tons.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine, as of November 12, 4.4 million hectares of wheat has been sown (97 % of projected area). The past two weeks featured cold conditions across Ukraine with temperatures to 2-4°C below normal. Lack of precipitation across the country lowered soil moisture levels, to a 6-year low, especially in occupied Oblasts.
According to the latest weather forecast, a warm weather is likely to appear in the upcoming days, with above average precipitation in the western and central Ukraine. Long-term weather forecast shows colder temperatures, with normal precipitation. We will monitor satellite imagery and weather condition in the upcoming weeks and update our forecast accordingly.
LIVESTOCK SURVEY: US Cattle on Feed Placements Seen Up 3.4%
October placements onto feedlots seen rising y/y to 2.24m head, according to a Bloomberg survey of 11 analysts.
- That would be the highest Oct. level since 2019
- Estimates range from 0% to +7% y/y change
- Feedlot herd as of Nov. 1 seen falling by 0.1% y/y to 11.95m head
- Marketings seen rising 5.1% y/y
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