Global Ag News for Nov 15.24

TOP HEADLINES

La Niña Yet to Emerge, Says NOAA

A La Niña climate system has not yet emerged, says the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center–this although the agency has for months forecasted a high probability of La Niña coming to pass in the closing months of 2024 heading into 2025. The NOAA now assesses a 57% chance for a weak La Niña to develop between now through December. “The team still favors onset of La Niña, but it is likely to remain weak and have shorter duration than other historical episodes,” says the agency in a note. A weaker system makes it less likely for the system to show its typical effects on the weather, says the agency. La Niña often brings more precipitation and colder temperatures to the northern U.S., while keeping the south warmer and dry.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 2 1/2 in SRW, up 3 in HRW, up 4 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans up 6 1/4; Soymeal down $0.90; Soyoil up 1.13.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 36 3/4 in SRW, down 27 3/4 in HRW, down 27 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 12 3/4; Soybeans down 36 1/2; Soymeal down $9.90; Soyoil down 3.16.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 39 1/2 in SRW, down 33 1/4 in HRW, down 38 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 5 1/2; Soybeans down 3/4; Soymeal down $13.10; Soyoil up 0.62.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 15.1% in SRW, down 16.4% in HRW, down 21.0% in HRS; Corn is down 11.0%; Soybeans down 23.2%; Soymeal down 25.8%; Soyoil down 4.8%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 25) Soybeans down 64 yuan; Soymeal down 60; Soyoil down 26; Palm oil up 106; Corn down 12 — Malaysian Palm is up 124.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 124 ringgit (+2.50%) at 5088.

There were changes in registrations (61 Soybeans). Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 114 Corn; 620 Soybeans; 369 Soyoil; 76 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 13 were: SRW Wheat up 13,346 contracts, HRW Wheat up 6,022, Corn up 1,793, Soybeans up 14,195, Soymeal up 1,184, Soyoil down 7,991.

 

Brazil: Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, being favorable for soybean establishment. Southern areas have been a bit drier lately and soil moisture may be falling. But another system will move through early next week that could mean better coverage and amounts. Overall conditions are still mostly favorable in the country.

Argentina: Systems are moving through with less frequency lately and may be concerning if they only bring scattered showers instead of widespread rain. A system will move through this weekend into early next week and some areas may be missed. Those that are could see falling soil moisture and poorer conditions developing, but conditions are still mostly favorable. The threat of heat and dryness due to the building La Nina may be a threat later in the season as well.

Northern Plains: A system should produce a few showers this weekend. But a much bigger storm should develop next week with heavier and more widespread precipitation, including potential for heavy snow. Temperatures will generally stay above normal until that bigger storm moves in next week, with a large drop expected. Overall drought continues to increase, though some areas are worse than others. That could change if the system next week is indeed a big one in the region. There is a lot of model uncertainty for this region.

Central/Southern Plains: Recent rain and snow has significantly increased soil moisture across the region, though areas of Colorado and New Mexico are still buried in snow that will not be helpful for winter wheat. Temperatures will generally be above normal except for areas covered in snow. A much bigger system should move through next week, perhaps in more than one burst, and that may mean a lot more precipitation. Models are all over the board with its precipitation potential and type for the region, but still produce quite a bit. Temperatures are likely to take a dive after that system moves through.

Midwest: A system continues to move through the region on Thursday and has been producing scattered showers and areas of moderate to heavy rain, further helping the drought situation in some areas. A few showers may move through this weekend. But a much larger storm will develop next week, perhaps in two pieces, and is likely to bring more widespread precipitation to the region as it slowly spins around for several days. The details are still being worked out in the models and there is a lot of uncertainty with regards to timing, amounts, and type. Regardless, it should still help to reduce drought and boost soil moisture for winter wheat.

 

The player sheet for Nov. 14 had funds: net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 12,000 corn, sellers of 12,000 soybeans, sellers of 3,500 soymeal, and sellers of 4,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

  • SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 176,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to undisclosed destinations for delivery in the 2024/25 marketing year that began Sept. 1.
  • CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB is believed to have made no purchase in a tender which closed on Wednesday for up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced only from Argentina or Brazil
  • WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 114,403 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed on Thursday.
  • FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat expected to be sourced from the United States in a private deal on Wednesday without issuing an international tender.
  • BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

PENDING TENDERS

  • RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tons of rice
  • WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
  • WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tons of milling wheat.

 

Earth

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of six analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Friday for week ending Nov. 7.

  • Corn est. range 600k – 2,600k tons, with avg of 1,635k
  • Soybean est. range 1,000k – 2,400k tons, with avg of 1,773k

 

CROP SURVEY: US October Soybean Crush Seen at 193M Bushels

Projections are based on a survey of up to eight analysts conducted by Bloomberg News on Nov. 13-14.

  • Soybean crush seen 1.7% higher vs October of last year, and an increase of 8.8% vs a month ago
  • Oil stocks at the end of last month seen at 1.082b lbs vs 1.099b a year earlier

 

NOPA October US soybean crush seen at record 196.843 million bushels

The U.S. soybean crush likely surged to an all-time record in October, while soyoil stocks were forecast to have increased after hitting a near-decade low a month earlier, analysts said ahead of a National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Friday.

NOPA members, who handle about 95% of all U.S. processed soybeans, were estimated to have crushed 196.843 million bushels last month, according to the average of estimates from 10 analysts surveyed by Reuters.

If realized, it would be up 11.0% from the September crush of 177.320 million bushels and up 3.7% from October 2023 when processors crushed 189.774 million bushels. It would also eclipse the previous monthly crush record of 196.406 million bushels set in March 2024.

U.S. soy crush capacity has swelled in recent years as processors built several new plants and expanded existing ones to meet surging vegetable oil demand from biofuels makers.

The crush in October is not expected to fully reflect that capacity growth as a large processing plant in Des Moines, Iowa, was idled for maintenance for a portion of the month.

Meanwhile, recent fluctuations in NOPA membership, with some plants becoming members and others leaving the group, also contributed to a wide range of crush estimates for the month, analysts said.

Crush estimates for October ranged from 189.500 million to 205.183 million bushels, with a median of 197.425 million bushels.

The NOPA report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CST (1700 GMT) on Friday.

Soyoil stocks held by NOPA members as of Oct 31 were estimated at 1.090 billion lbs, based on estimates from seven analysts.

If the estimate is realized, it would be up 2.2% from 1.066 billion lbs at the end of September and the first stocks increase in seven months.

Oil stocks estimates ranged from 999 million to 1.226 billion lbs, with a median of 1.100 billion lbs.

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 0.1% to 22.039M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

  • Analysts were expecting 21.659 mln bbl
  • Plant production at 1.113m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.088m

 

Brazil 2024-25 Soybean Crop Seen at 166.14M Tons: Conab

Output est. raised from 166.05m tons, Brazil’s national supply co. says in its monthly report.

  • Analysts in a Bloomberg survey were expecting 168.3m tons
  • Yield seen mostly unchanged at 3,508 kg/ha
  • Area planted raised to 47.357m ha vs 47.332m ha last month
  • Corn production est. raised to 119.8m tons vs 119.7m tons

 

Argentina Soy Planting Progressing Well on ‘Optimal’ Moisture

Argentine farmers on the Pampas crop belt have planted 20% of national estimated soy acreage thanks to “optimal” surface moisture on fields, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in a weekly report.

  • Soy area estimate unchanged at 18.6m hectares (46m acres)
  • Rains have also helped wheat plants in Argentina’s breadbasket region
  • Wheat harvest forecast kept at 18.6m metric tons

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Weather favors planting activities; harvesting may hit a record

Although the 2024/25 soybean season has started with unfavorable weather conditions in Brazil, the recent rainfall along with sunny days are favoring crops activities, which are more advanced now than in the same period last crop.

This scenario (which sustains expectations of a possible record crop in Brazil) has led purchasers to be away from closing deals in the spot market. Producers are also unwilling to trade, focused on dollar valuations and projections of an increase in the global soy production. As a result, liquidity is low.

On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices upped 0.4% from Nov. 7-13 in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 0.9% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Paranaguá) increased 0.3% from November 7-13, closing at BRL 143.68 per 60-kg bag yesterday. On the other hand, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) downed 0.5% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 140.76 per 60-kg bag on Nov. 13.

Crops activities continue to move at a good pace. The area is expected to hit the record of 47.36 million hectares. From this total, 66.1% had been planted by November 10.

The production is expected to total 166.14 million tons (Conab) or 169 million tons (USDA).

 

CORN/CEPEA: Prices remain moving up, but some purchasers are unwilling to trade

The fact that sellers are away from closing deals has been sustaining the upward trend for corn prices in Brazil. Players are focused on crop activities, limiting the supply in the spot market. Moreover, they expect new price rises between late 2024 and the beginning of 2025.

However, increases were limited this week by the fact that some purchasers are unwilling to trade. Better weather conditions, the slow pace of exports and decreases of international contracts led purchasers to expect price drops in the domestic market. Moreover, projections for the 2024/25 season indicate an increase of the production, which can encourage sellers to trade.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, corn values upped 1.9% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 1.1% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) from November 7-13.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) moved up only 0.1% between November 7 and 13, closing at BRL 74.45 per 60-kilo bag on Nov. 13.

 

Brazil’s BRF expects feed cost to remain steady next year due to record soybean harvest

Brazilian pork and chicken processor BRF expects steady feed costs for next year, largely due to favorable grain supply from an expected record soybean harvest, company Chief Financial Officer Fabio Mariano said on Thursday.

The company expects the soybean harvest in Brazil to yield nearly 170 million tons, with the U.S. and Argentina also having significant production volumes in 2024-25.

BRF is also looking into ways of diversifying how it sources feed, as corn ethanol plants expand in Brazil and increase competition for the grain, company executives said. BRF Chief Executive Miguel Gularte said one option is to use distiller’s dried grain, a byproduct of the corn ethanol industry that is growing in popularity as a feed grain.

The company expects demand for its products to remain strong, and sees opportunities for growth in investments at a faster pace than in the last two years, Mariano said.

 

Ukraine Grain Exports Up 48% Y/y to 16.3m Tons This Season

Ukraine’s grain exports reached 16.3m tons in the season that started July 1, compared with almost 11m tons in the same period a year ago, the Agriculture Ministry says on its website.

  • Total exports include:
    • 8.3m tons of wheat, up almost 60% from the same period a year ago
    • 1.7m tons of barley
    • Almost 6m tons of corn, up 22% compared to last year
  • Total grain exports in November have so far reached almost 2m tons, slightly ahead of last year
  • Ukraine’s grain and legumes harvest totaled 71.4m tons, as of mid November

 

Ukraine’s 2024 grain harvest is 95.7% complete, at 52.1 mln tons

Ukraine has harvested 52.1 million metric tons of grain from 95.7% of the planted area by Nov. 14, the agriculture ministry said on Friday.

The volume included 22.4 million tons of wheat, 5.6 million tons of barley, 470,500 tons of peas and 22.3 million tons of corn. Farmers have threshed 88% of corn area.

Farmers also harvested almost 10 million tons of sunflower from 96.5% of the planted area. They almost completed the harvest of rapeseed at 3.5 million tons and soybeans at 5.8 million tons.

The ministry has forecast the 2024 corn harvest at about 25 million tons and the wheat crop at about 22 million tons. It expects a 2024 grain harvest of about 54 million tons and a total crop, including oilseeds, of 77 million tons.

Ukraine will meet its winter sowing target for the 2025 harvest despite difficult weather conditions, Agriculture Minister Vitaliy Koval said this month.

 

French Corn Harvest 71% Complete vs 5-Yr Average of 93%: AgriMer

About 71% of the French corn crop was harvested as of Monday, up from 58% the previous week but still lagging behind the five-year average of 93%, FranceAgriMer said on its website.

  • About 78% of the French soft-wheat crop was planted as of Monday, compared with a five-year average of 83%
  • 89% of the winter-barley crop was planted, compared with a five-year average of 91%
    • Some 84% of the winter barley was in “good” or “very good” condition, compared with 87% a year earlier
  • 32% of the durum-wheat crop was planted, compared with a five-year average of 42%

 

Brazil’s total corn harvest estimate bumped up by consultancy firm Safras

Brazil’s total corn harvest for 2024/25 is now seen at 134.8 million metric tons, more than 1 million tons higher than the September forecast, consultancy Safras & Mercado said on Thursday.

With the revision based on a larger-than-expected planting area for Brazil’s second corn crop, the consultancy sees the total harvest more than 7% higher than in the previous harvest.

 

SovEcon Ups 2025 Russia Wheat Outlook; Cuts ‘24 Figures

Consultant SovEcon raised its forecast for Russia’s 2025 wheat production to 81.6m tons from a previous estimate of 80.1m tons, it said in an email.

  • This includes an increase in winter wheat forecast; while the spring crop is seen steady
    • Forecast for winter planting area was raised slightly to 15.43m hectares
    • Yields also seen higher at 3.52 tons per hectare
  • 2024 production forecast:
    • 2024 corn production was cut to 11.5m tons from 12.2m tons
    • Wheat production forecast for the year trimmed slightly to 81.4m tons
    • Barley steady at 16.5m tons

 

EU Parliament Demands Further Changes to Deforestation Rules

  • EU’s assembly endorsed amendments from biggest political group
  • The vote vote sets into motion a longer process to modify EUDR

The European Parliament demanded further changes to a landmark law to tackle global deforestation, adding complications to a plan to delay the controversial rules before they take effect later this year.

The European Union’s assembly on Thursday endorsed amendments put forward by its biggest political group, the European People’s Party, to soften the regulation aimed at curbing forest clearance in nations that send products such as coffee, cocoa, soy and beef to the bloc. The demands are in addition to a 12-month delay proposed by the European Commission and backed by member states in the EU Council as well as the EPP.

The result of the vote sets into motion a longer process to modify the regulation, which was originally slated to take effect on Dec. 30. It necessitates negotiations between representatives of the Council, Parliament and the EU Commission to iron out the final shape of the measure.

 

Cash-strapped US farmers switch to generic crop chemicals, in blow to big manufacturers

  • Switch to generics pressures brands like Bayer’s Roundup
  • Bayer shares dive to 20-year low
  • Corteva and BASF may also face pressure

U.S. farmers struggling with slumping incomes and depressed grain prices have been switching to cheaper generic pesticides and fungicides as they plan for spring planting next year, which market analysts said could hit the bottom lines of agrichemical companies like Bayer.

Signs of these financial impacts are already emerging. Bayer shares fell sharply to a 20-year low on Tuesday, after the chemical company warned that weak global agricultural markets and a slumping U.S. farm economy are likely to pressure profits further.

Agrichemical competitors Syngenta, Corteva and the agriculture unit of Germany’s BASF BASFn.DE could also face challenges in the sector, analysts said.

Nearly one-third of all the pesticides and fungicides that Paul Butler uses on his Illinois soybean and corn farm are generic to help him cut costs in a tight year, he said.

Fellow Illinois grain grower Jeff O’Connor is doing the same. “It’s like if you grew up eating Fruity Pebbles and now you go to Dollar General and get Fruity Bites,” he said.

Despite the cost savings, farmers say there can be drawbacks to downgrading. Manufacturers of generic chemicals typically do not cover the cost of respraying if the product does not work, said Caleb Hamer, an Iowa corn and soy farmer.

Still, Midwestern distributors and grain elevators say they have seen customers cutting back their spring pesticide and herbicide budgets.

Some farmers are shifting away from branded products, said Matt Carstens, chief executive of farm cooperative Landus and agricultural financing company Conduit. Others are investing in equipment that targets and treats weeds and pests in their fields – allowing them to buy less herbicides and pesticides altogether, he said.

“It comes down to this: What does the farmer really need? Do they need a name brand, with protection insurance and complaint policies backing it? Do they need to pay for all of that?” Carstens said.

 

China’s Communist Party expels former agriculture minister for corruption

China’s Communist Party has expelled former agriculture minister Tang Renjian, state media reported on Friday, six months after he was placed under investigation by the country’s anti-graft watchdog and removed from his post.

Tang, 61, was investigated for “serious violations of discipline and law”, a euphemism for corruption, and removed from the leadership roster of the ministry’s website in May.

The move to investigate Tang was unusually swift and follows similar investigations on defence minister Li Shangfu and his predecessor Wei Fenghe as China cracks down on corruption.

Tang was found to have accepted gifts and money in violation of regulations, accepting property in the selection and appointment of cadres, using his authority to provide assistance to his relatives’ business activities, and interfering in judicial activities, state media CCTV reported.

“Tang Renjian lost his ideals and beliefs, abandoned his original mission,” CCTV reported.

President Xi Jinping has pursued a tough and sweeping anti-graft campaign since taking power in 2012 and earlier this year declared “overwhelming victory” in the crackdown while vowing to keep up the pressure.

Xi views his anti-corruption drive as a key political achievement, but critics say the campaign has been used to purge his political opponents and does not address the root causes of graft, such as low wages and the unchecked powers of party-appointed state officials.

Tang was governor of the western province of Gansu from 2017 to 2020 before being named minister of agriculture and rural affairs, according to official biographies.

Under Tang, the agriculture and rural affairs ministry had stepped up its food security policies, approving the use of genetically-modified crops and adopting a food security law.

China appointed veteran official Han Jun, 60, as the new head of the ministry in September.

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Decline: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 766k tons in the week ending Nov. 9 from 767k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

  • Barge shipments of corn rose 6.1% from the previous week
  • Soybean shipments down 6% w/w
  • St. Louis barge rates were $17.76 per short ton, a decline of $5.91 from the previous week

 

US Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending Nov. 12: USDA

The following table shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending Nov. 12, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

  • Corn crops experiencing moderate to intense drought fell to 64% last week from 71% in the previous week
  • Winter wheat down 14 percentage points to 43% in drought

 

 

 

 

 

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