TOP HEADLINES
Mexico May Lose Corn USMCA Panel But Process Works: Ebrard
Mexico received preliminary results of an arbitration panel that looked at the nation’s ban on genetically modified corn imports and it may lose when final results are disclosed in December, said Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard at an event in Mexico City.
“They gave us the preliminary result on corn. The process ends in December and they might win against us, but what’s important is that the system works,” he said
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are down 2 in SRW, down 2 in HRW, up 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1/2; Soybeans up 2 1/2; Soymeal down $1.70; Soyoil up 0.48.
For the week so far wheat prices are down 32 3/4 in SRW, down 24 3/4 in HRW, down 23 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 6 1/2; Soybeans down 19 3/4; Soymeal down $6.20; Soyoil down 3.03.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 35 3/4 in SRW, down 30 1/4 in HRW, down 34 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 12; Soybeans up 15 3/4; Soymeal down $9.60; Soyoil up 0.75.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 14.1% in SRW, down 16.0% in HRW, down 20.8% in HRS; Corn is down 9.4%; Soybeans down 22.4%; Soymeal down 24.9%; Soyoil down 4.6%.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 25) Soybeans down 19 yuan; Soymeal down 22; Soyoil down 144; Palm oil down 78; Corn up 2 — Malaysian Palm is down 23.
Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 23 ringgit (-0.46%) at 4964.
There were changes in registrations (61 Soybeans). Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 114 Corn; 620 Soybeans; 369 Soyoil; 76 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 13 were: SRW Wheat up 13,346 contracts, HRW Wheat up 6,022, Corn up 1,793, Soybeans up 14,195, Soymeal up 1,184, Soyoil down 7,991.
Brazil: Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, being favorable for soybean establishment. Southern areas have been a bit drier lately and soil moisture may be falling. But another system will move through next week that could mean better coverage and amounts. Overall conditions are still mostly favorable in the country.
Argentina: Systems are moving through with less frequency lately and may be concerning if they only bring scattered showers instead of widespread rain. A system will move through this weekend into early next week and some areas may be missed. Those that are could see falling soil moisture and poorer conditions developing, but conditions are still mostly favorable. The threat of heat and dryness due to the building La Nina may be a threat later in the season as well.
Northern Plains: A system is bringing a few showers to the eastern Dakotas early Wednesday and another system should produce a few more this weekend. But a much bigger storm should develop next week with heavier and more widespread precipitation. Temperatures will generally stay above normal until that bigger storm moves in next week, with a larger drop expected. Overall drought continues to increase, though some areas are worse than others. That could change if the system next week indeed is a big one in the region.
Central/Southern Plains: A small system is moving out of the region early Wednesday after bringing some streaky rainfall Tuesday night. Recent rain and snow has significantly increased soil moisture across the region, though areas of Colorado and New Mexico are buried in snow that will not be helpful for winter wheat. Temperatures will generally be above normal except for areas covered in snow. A much bigger system should move through next week that may mean a lot more precipitation, but models are all over the board with its precipitation potential. Temperatures are likely to take a dive after that system moves through next week.
Midwest: A system will move through on Wednesday and Thursday with scattered showers. Another will likely move through Canada this weekend but may still bring a few showers through. A much larger storm will develop next week and is likely to bring more widespread precipitation to the region, though the details for that system are still being worked out in the models. The continued active pattern should help to reduce drought and boost soil moisture for winter wheat.
The player sheet for Nov. 13 had funds: net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 3,500 corn, sellers of 2,500 soybeans, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and sellers of 5,500 soyoil.
TENDERS
- CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 401,357 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico and another 290,820 tons to undisclosed destinations, all for delivery in the 2024/25 marketing year that began Sept. 1.
- SOYMEAL PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased about 60,000 metric tons of soymeal in a private deal without an international tender being issued
- SOYMEAL PURCHASE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased around 60,000 metric tons of soymeal in an international tender
- CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased around 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal without issuing an international tender, European traders said. It was expected to be sourced from the United States, South America or South Africa. The corn was purchased at an estimated $245.24 a ton cost and freight (c&f) included with an additional $1.25 a ton surcharge. Seller was believed to be trading house Mitsui.
- CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association’s Incheon section purchased an estimated 65,000 to 70,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender
- FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in an international tender
- FEED WHEAT AND BARLEY PURCHASE: Japan will import 4,100 metric tons of feed-quality wheat and 220 tons of barley for livestock use via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that closed late on Wednesday, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said. The ministry had sought 65,000 tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to arrive in Japan by Feb. 27.
- WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 114,403 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed on Thursday.
- WHEAT PURCHASE: BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley. A new announcement had been expected after Jordan made no purchase in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of barley on Wednesday.
- FEED BARLEY TENDER PASSED: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley which closed on Wednesday.
- BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley. A new announcement had been expected after Jordan made no purchase in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of barley on Wednesday.
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
PENDING TENDERS
- CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued a new international tender to purchase up to 240,000 tons of animal feed corn sourced from Argentina or Brazil only
- RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tons of rice.
- WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tons of milling wheat.
TODAY
Wider Argentina Soy Planting Spurs Increase in Harvest Forecast
Rains in recent weeks have moistened farmland and spurred soy fieldwork on Argentina’s crop belt, leading the Rosario Board of Trade to increase its area estimate to 17.9m hectares (44.2m acres), up 1.1% from October, analysts wrote in a monthly report.
- Planting is 20% complete
- Rosario is now predicting a harvest of 53m-53.5m metric tons, up from 52m-53m last month
- NOTE: Argentina Set for Biggest Expansion in Soy Acreage in 15 Years
CORN:
- Area and harvest forecasts shrink slightly
- Harvest now seen at 50m-51m vs. 51m-52m last month
- Corn planting 36% complete
WHEAT:
- Rains came too late to help wheat plants in many parts of the Pampas
- Harvest estimate cut by 3.6% m/m to 18.8m tons
France Cuts Wheat Exports Outlook on Drop in Non-EU Sales
Soft-wheat exports from France in the 2024-25 season are estimated at 9.9m tons, down from an October estimate of 10.03m tons, crops office FranceAgriMer said in a report Wednesday.
- That would be 40.5% lower than the previous season
- The agency cut its outlook for non-European Union sales to 3.9m tons; down 2.5% from last month
- Non-EU export estimates are down 62% y/y
- Stockpiles projection for the 2024-25 season increased to 2.78m tons from 2.5m tons in October
BARLEY:
- Stockpile estimate rose slightly to 1.36m tons from 1.35m tons in October
- Export outlook increased slightly to 5.053m tons from 5.026m tons from October
CORN:
- Stockpiles seen at 2.36m tons, down from 2.44m tons in October
- Exports forecast raised to 4.76m tons from estimates of 4.69m tons in October
EU Grain Production Seen at 258.2m Tons for 2024-25: Strategie
The European Union’s grain production for the 2024-25 season is seen at 258.2 million tons, according to analysis firm Strategie Grains.
- That’s little changed from the prior month’s forecast
- Says grain from the western EU has gained some export competitiveness since last month, but French grain is still less appealing than Black Sea supply
- Forecasts that EU wheat exports will fall sharply y/y given low availability and slow start to French exports
2025/26 INDIA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 112.4 [106.2–115.4] MILLION TONS, DOWN <1% FROM LAST UPDATE
2025/26 India wheat production is slightly lowered by <1% from our previous estimate to 112.4 million metric tons (MMT) amid a decline in yield estimates in key producing Northern states, Haryana, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh due to recent and forecasted warmer temperatures that are not ideal for India wheat during its germination period. Over the past two weeks, precipitation levels over the key producing northern wheat states were near normal, while temperatures were 1-4 °C above trend. According to LSEG’s latest weather forecast, warmer temperatures will prevail over India throughout the next 10-days, alongside near normal precipitation levels.
Yields will depend heavily on temperatures/precipitation during the critical growth stages (January-April). We will periodically update production upon changes in weather, soil moisture, and satellite imagery as the season progresses.
Strong Domestic Demand Should Lift Corn Planting in Brazil: SLC
Brazil-based meatpackers and corn-ethanol producers are currently paying a little bit higher than exporters for the grain, SLC Agricola SA CEO Aurelio Pavinato, said during an earnings call.
- That could push Brazilian farmers to plant a larger-than-expected area with second crop corn known as “safrinha,” instead of sowing more cotton, Pavinato said
- SLC expects high soybean yields as planting was done during the expected time
- Brazil’s farmers likely to face tight margins once again in 2025-26 crop season
- Corn and cotton prices expected to stay near current levels in 2025-26 marketing year
- Company could buy more land from farmers facing financial trouble after low profits for 2024-25 crop
Wet conditions to dominate in Australia during the harvests in November/early December
- A mixed temperature pattern is expected in Australia, with hot conditions in the Southeast
- Rains will become more frequent, hampering wheat/rapeseed harvest locally
PAST WEATHER
Hot conditions prevailed across most regions of Australia during the last week and relatively cool conditions were observed only along the southern coast. Temperatures were between 1-5 °C warmer than normal, with the highest anomalies in Queensland (QL). As for precipitation, most regions recorded rainfall deficits of 5-10 mm/7 days, while regional wet spells occurred in South Australia (SA), and along the western coast.
Overall, weather was supportive for early harvests, although drought remained the main concern for late-planted wheat/rapeseed in all southeast regions (extreme in Victoria).
FORECAST:
Discussion:
The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) should remain in a positive phase event over the next 15 days, which usually supports wet conditions at this stage of the season.
Models’ performance:
The GFS outperforms the EC for the 10-day forecast by a narrow margin, and the GFS could be preferable for analysis. The current trend suggests improved confidence in the 10-day outlook.
Weather outlook:
Mixed weather conditions will be observed over the 10-day timeframe.
Over the next 5 days, warmth will be limited to the eastern regions (1-3 °C above normal in Victoria, New South Wales, and most of Queensland), while near-normal temperatures will prevail elsewhere. From the next week, warmth will overspread the southern half of the continent and intensify to 4-6 °C above normal in the southeast. At the same time, areas in the northeast (QL) will observe a cooling trend and anomalies 1-3 °C below normal.
As for precipitation/rainfall activity will be intensifying through the next 10 days. Initially, the main front will affect eastern regions over this weekend, bringing high rains to 20-40 mm above normal along the coast. In the next week, rains will start to develop in the west, reaching 10-day totals between 15-25 mm above normal in Western Australia. In late November/early December, increasing rainfall activity should continue, accompanied by a split temperature outlook (cool in the north, warm in the south)
Crop impact:
The arrival of rains will be too late for wheat/rapeseed to significantly improve crop conditions, and may locally hamper harvest progress.
Brazil’s first biorefinery uses Danish tech, backed by Petrobras, Braskem, Ultra
Refinaria Riograndense, owned by Petrobras, Braskem and Grupo Ultra, has signed a deal with Denmark’s Topsoe to supply technology for Brazil’s first biorefinery, a project estimated at $1bn, said the refinery’s superintendent director, Felipe Jorge, Estadão reported.
The biorefinery will produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and green diesel, with studies expected by June 2025 and an investment decision due between July and August that year.
The new unit will process 800,000 tonnes per year (tpy) of sustainable raw materials, including vegetable oils, animal fat and waste. If approved, operations are projected to start in 2028. ‘It will be a separate unit from the existing refinery,’ Jorge noted.
Last year, Riograndense processed 1,500 tonnes of soybean oil in its fluid catalytic cracking unit, producing BioLPG, naphtha and marine fuels using Petrobras-developed technology.
Commercial production of these fuels is planned for 2025, with an initial processing target of 120,000 tonnes per year, Jorge stated.
Jorge also highlighted that Brazil’s Fuel of the Future Bill has improved the regulatory environment for SAF projects, making them attractive for investment. “Clear regulations are essential,” he said, emphasising that financing should not be a hurdle due to the partners’ profiles and the project’s competitiveness.
US Fall Fertilizer Run Gets Much-Needed Precipitation Boost
India’s urea tender revealed marginally lower prices, while Corn Belt reference prices for ammonia remained strong on the cusp of fall application. Recent rainfall brought much-needed moisture, triggering fall ammonia applications, with potash and phosphate fertilization running briskly in early November.
Brazil Urea Softens, Phosphates Remain Stable on Limited Demand
Urea prices slipped in Brazil amid a strong import lineup, with ammonium sulfate also under pressure and trading at a discount to urea. Phosphates were stable on limited demand in the country, though potash retreated slightly after last week’s uptick as negotiations begin for next year’s volume amid favorable barter ratios.
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