Global Ag News for Nov 11.24

TOP HEADLINES

World Food Price Index Hits 18-Month High on Production Concerns

Global food prices hit the highest level in 18-months in October, with unfavorable weather raising production concerns for many commodities and threatening to keep consumer costs higher for longer.

An index of food-commodity prices created by the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization rose to the highest since April 2023, according to data released on Friday. The gauge — that tracks grains, sugar, meat, dairy and vegetable oils costs — rose 2% in October, led by a jump in the cost of vegetable oils.

While the index tracks raw commodity costs rather than retail prices, the rise indicates that higher food prices may continue to hit consumers. Although food prices have rolled back from the record high witnessed in the wake of the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, signs of tight supplies have fueled a fresh upward push in food prices.

Vegetable oil prices jumped the most last month on worries about lower production, with palm oil leading the rally.

Unrelenting rains in the northern hemisphere have also put pressure on grains, while dry weather raised concerns about production in Brazil, driving up sugar costs.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 11 in SRW, down 11 3/4 in HRW, down 9 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans up 6 1/2; Soymeal up $3.90; Soyoil down 0.02.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 7 3/4 in SRW, down 17 3/4 in HRW, down 16 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 14 3/4; Soybeans up 40; Soymeal up $0.70; Soyoil up 3.32.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 9 in SRW, down 16 3/4 in HRW, down 15 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 20; Soybeans up 42 1/4; Soymeal up $0.60; Soyoil up 3.61.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 10.7% in SRW, down 13.8% in HRW, down 18.7% in HRS; Corn is down 8.5%; Soybeans down 20.8%; Soymeal down 22.2%; Soyoil up 2.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 25) Soybeans down 7 yuan; Soymeal up 2; Soyoil down 4; Palm oil up 200; Corn down 20 — Malaysian Palm is up 95.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 95 ringgit (+1.86%) at 5196.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 126 Corn; 658 Soybeans; 369 Soyoil; 76 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 8 were: SRW Wheat down 7,710 contracts, HRW Wheat down 315, Corn up 6,002, Soybeans down 12,866, Soymeal up 38, Soyoil up 14,391.

 

Brazil: Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, being favorable for soybean establishment. A couple of systems will move through southern areas this week and next week, but overall rainfall will be lower than normal. Soil moisture is lower in some areas, but overall conditions are still mostly favorable in most areas.

Argentina: A system will move through Sunday and Monday with scattered showers. Another system will move through this coming weekend into early next week with more showers. Showers will be scattered and some areas will be left with light or no rainfall. But overall favorable conditions continue to be present in most of the country. The threat of heat and dryness due to the building La Nina may be a threat later in the season.

Northern Plains: Scattered showers went through the Dakotas over the weekend. A system should bring some additional showers early this week and another system should produce more this weekend. Temperatures will generally stay above normal. Overall drought continues to increase, though some areas are worse than others.

Central/Southern Plains: A system produced heavy rain and snow across the region over the weekend. A small system will move through Tuesday and Wednesday with some additional precipitation. Another will move through with more rain this weekend. Soil moisture has certainly increased across the region, though areas of Colorado and New Mexico are buried in snow that will not be helpful for winter wheat. Temperatures will generally be above normal except for areas covered in snow.

Midwest: A system went through over the weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms and a couple of areas of heavier rain that will be helpful along the Ohio River. A system will move through on Wednesday and Thursday with scattered showers and another will likely move through Sunday and Monday with more. The continued active pattern should help to reduce drought and boost soil moisture for winter wheat.

Delta: Water levels on the Mississippi River have risen due to recent heavy rain across the Plains and Midwest. But for the River to have sustained improvements, the River needs to see more precipitation into the Ohio Valley. Some good amounts went through the Ohio over the weekend and the region will see additional systems moving through over the next couple of weeks that should help as well.

Europe: Isolated showers fell over the Iberian Peninsula and across France over the weekend. Dryness elsewhere has been decreasing soil moisture as winter wheat starts to go dormant from north to south. Southeastern areas are worse off than other areas. A small system will drought southwest through the continent early this week with scattered showers. A more long-lasting storm system may develop next week with more widespread precipitation.

Black Sea: Rainfall deficits continue to be very large in the east. Wheat is going dormant mostly in poor condition. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter to make up for the lost time this fall. Some showers will fall this week and next with a couple of systems moving through.

Australia: Very limited showers have been moving through the country lately and soil moisture is falling. With harvest increasing for winter wheat and canola, that will help to promote fieldwork. But cotton and sorghum need more rain. A few systems will move through over the next week, but the forecast is calling for continued spotty rainfall outside of southeastern Queensland.

 

The player sheet for Nov. 8 had funds: net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 10,000 corn, sellers of 11,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and buyers of 5,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) confirmed private sales of 200,480 metric tons of U.S. corn to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2024/25 marketing year.
• SOYBEAN SALES: The USDA also confirmed private sales of 107,000 metric tons of soybeans to China and another 132,000 tons to unknown destinations, all for delivery in the 2024/25 marketing year.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in a private deal on Monday without issuing an international tender 

 

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat
• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 4,000 metric tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 101,000 metric tons of rice
• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued an international tender to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from Argentina or Brazil only
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 65,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley via a tender. The tender will be undertaken via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on Nov. 13.

 

 

 

Brazil Farmers Plant 68.36% Of 2024/2025 Expected Soybean Area Versus 61.28% At This Time Last Year – Patria Agronegocios

BRAZIL FARMERS PLANT 68.36% OF 2024/2025 EXPECTED SOYBEAN AREA VERSUS 61.28% AT THIS TIME LAST YEAR – PATRIA AGRONEGOCIOS

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Trades move at a firm pace; sowing activities advance

The pace of soybean trades continue firm in Brazil, influenced by the high demand from the crushing industry. This scenario boosted soy export premiums in Brazil. However, price rises in the domestic market were limited by the progress of 2024/25 sowing activities in South America, by the proximity of the end of the harvesting in the Northern Hemisphere and by the dollar devaluation against Real.

On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices moved up 0.9% from Oct. 31 to Nov. 7 in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 0.8% in the wholesale market (deals between processors). Dollar quotations dropped 1.7% against Real in the same comparison, to close at BRL 5.684 on Nov. 7.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Paranaguá) decreased 0.4% from October 31 to November 7, closing at BRL 143.26 per 60-kg bag yesterday. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) rose 0.2% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 141.44 per 60-kg bag on Nov. 7

BYPRODUCTS – The firm demand from the crushing industry is linked to the increase of soy oil consumption, especially to produce biodiesel. Prices rose 5.9% from Oct. 31 to Nov. 7, at BRL 7,402.37 per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on November 7, the highest since December 7, 2022.

As for soybean meal, only a few trades have been closed. Some purchasers are expecting better opportunities in the coming months. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, soymeal prices dropped 1.1% in the last seven days.

EXPORTS – Brazil shipped 4.7 million tons of soybean in October, 22.87% less than in September/24 and 15.9% smaller compared to October/23. Moreover, it is the lowest volume this year – data from Secex. From January to October/24, on the other hand, exports totaled 94.25 million tons, 1.5% more than in the same period last year and a record.

Soybean meal shipments rose 32.3% from September to October, totaling 2.31 million tons, the biggest amount since March/24. As for soy oil, the volume upped 16.5% in the same comparison, at 94.67 thousand tons in October (data from Secex).

CROPS – Conab indicates that planting activities reached 53.3% in Brazil up to November 3, higher than the 48.4% verified in the same period last year.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Firm demand keeps prices high; Index is at BRL 74/bag

The upward trend of corn prices continues to be observed in this early November. The domestic demand is firm and this scenario may persist in the coming days, due to the need of purchasers to replenish inventories. Sellers, in turn, have been preferring to focus on activities of the summer crop.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, corn values rose 1.1% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 2.8% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) from October 31 to November 7.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) increased 2% between October 31 and November 7, closing at BRL 74.41 per 60-kilo bag on Nov. 7 and at the highest levels since April 2023, in nominal terms.

PORTS – Exports totaled 6.4 million tons of corn in October, 24% less than in October/23, but similar to the 6.42 million tons registered in September this year – data from Secex.  From February to October this year, the total shipped is at 25.9 million tons, below the 36.3 million tons observed in the same period of 2023, also according to Secex.

Although shipments decreased, prices at ports are moving up again. Corn quotations upped 2.9% from Oct. 31 to Nov. 7 at the port of Paranaguá (PR) and 1.8% in Santos (SP). Dollar quotations, in turn, decreased 1.7% in the same comparison, closing at BRL 5.684 on Nov. 7.

CROPS – The weather has been favoring activities. Up to November 3, the summer crop planting had reached 42.1% of the area in Brazil, 1.9 percentage point more than in the same period last year – data from Conab.

 

China Corn Supplies Sufficient, Rains Threaten Storage: CASDE

Supplies of corn are sufficient in China, but more rains seen in parts of the northeastern region this month could hinder storage and transport of the grains in some areas, the country’s agriculture ministry said.

The country is wrapping up another bumper corn harvest, the government has said. But some industry participants had forecast a big drop in output due to extreme weather earlier in the year

Corn supplies are sufficient in China as the new harvest hits the market while demand for the grain from feed and processing sector improves, the ministry said in the monthly China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

Precipitation in parts of Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang and Xinjiang region is seen higher in November, which might affect storage and transport of fall grains

The ministry raised its estimates for corn imports in 2023/24 marketing year to 23.41 million tons, and soybean imports to 104.74 million tons

Estimates for production, imports and consumption of corn, soybeans, cotton, edible oils and sugar for 2024-2025 remained unchanged

 

Malaysia Oct. Palm Oil Stockpiles Fall to 1.885m Tons: MPOB

Malaysia’s palm oil stockpiles fell to 1.885m tons in October from revised 2.012m tons in September, according to Malaysian Palm Oil Board.

• Palm oil production was 1.797m tons
• Palm oil exports rose to 1.732m tons from revised 1.560m tons in September

 

India’s Edible Oil Imports May Fall on Higher Domestic Supplies

Cooking oil purchases by India, the world’s biggest importer, may drop 2.4% from a year earlier to 16 million tons in 2024-25, according to Sandeep Bajoria, chief executive officer of Sunvin Group.

• Domestic supplies may climb to 10 million tons during the year that began on Nov. 1, from 9.7m tons in 2023-24, Bajoria said in a presentation prepared for a vegetable oil conference in Nantong, China
• Palm oil imports are expected to drop to 9.1m tons in 2024-25 from 9.32m tons a year earlier
  • Soyoil purchases seen at 3.7m tons vs 3.56m tons
  • Sunflower oil imports likely at 3.2m tons vs 3.52m tons

 

Analyst APK-Inform keeps Ukraine 2024/25 grain harvest, export forecast unchanged

Analyst APK-Inform said on Sunday it kept Ukraine 2024/25 July-June grain harvest forecast unchanged at 52.5 million metric tons and the 2024/25 grain exports at 37.3 million tons.

Ukraine’s grain exports in the 2023/24 marketing season rose to about 51 million tons from 49.2 million tons the previous season.

 

Ukraine Grain Exports Rise 5% in Early November From Year Ago

Ukraine’s grain exports in the first week of November reached 902k tons, about 5% higher than the year-earlier period, the country’s Agrarian Ministry said on its website.

Total exports in the season that started on July 1 reached 15.3m tons, 52% higher then last year. Includes

• Almost 8m tons of wheat, up 60% from year ago
• 1.7m tons of barley
• 5.3m tons of corn, up 24% compared with last year

 

Indonesia May Not Need to Import Rice in 2025: Minister

Indonesia may not need to import rice next year as state-owned food logistic company Bulog will hold enough stockpiles by year-end, says Coordinating Minister for Food Affairs Zulkifli Hasan.

• Bulog is expected to hold 2m tons of rice reserves at end-2024 and supply seen to be abundant in March with new harvest coming, Hasan said
• Govt has allowed Bulog to import 3.6m rice this year to help cool domestic prices

 

US renewable fuel credits rally to multi-month highs despite Trump reelection

U.S. renewable fuel credits rose to multi-month highs on Friday on increased demand from refiners trying to comply with mandates and higher prices for soyoil, surprising traders who expected Donald Trump’s reelection as U.S. president to weigh on the market.

Rising prices for the credits, also called Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs), are welcome news for biofuel producers who depend on them to make up for high output costs. However, they also worsen the pain for petroleum refiners whose profit margins have slumped sharply this year due to oversupply and weak demand.

Prices for both the D4 RINs, issued to biomass-based diesel producers, and the D6 RINs RIN-D6-US, issued to ethanol suppliers, rose as high as 79 cents each on Friday, traders said.

Those are the highest levels since January, according to LSEG data.

The U.S. government mandates mixing of low-carbon fuels in the country’s transportation fuel mix, and issues RINs to companies supplying them. Refiners who do not meet their targets can buy RINs from others or risk fines.

Trump’s victory in this week’s U.S. elections had led to speculation that small refineries will find it easier to get exemptions to their RIN generation targets under his administration, OPIS analyst Tom Kloza said.

However, Trump has not yet outlined any plans to do that.

“There’s uncertainty around whether Trump will reintroduce widespread small refinery exemptions, so some small refiners may be buying now to avoid being caught short,” said Alex Hodes, analyst at energy brokerage StoneX.

Market participants also expect fewer RINs to be available for trade next year, partly due to tighter government mandates and weak fuel demand reducing renewables blending, said Will Faulkner, founder of industry analysis firm Carbon Acumen.

Meanwhile, soybean oil prices have also rallied this week on expectations that Trump could impose tariffs on imports of biofuel feedstocks. Higher prices for feedstocks erode producer margins, making them price their RINs higher, said Paul Niznik, director of energy at consultancy firm Capstone.

 

US Pork Production Falls 1.7% This Week, Beef Rises: USDA

US federally inspected pork production falls to 556m pounds for the week ending Nov. 9 from 566m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Hog slaughter down 1.8% from a week ago to 2.605m head
• Beef production up 0.8% from a week ago, cattle slaughter rises 0.7%
• For the year, beef production is 0.5% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 1.5% above

 

 

 

 

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