TOP HEADLINES
Bird flu spreading faster than 2023 in the EU, data shows
- 2023 had been milder at same stage of the season
- French poultry lobby describes EU trend as “worrying”
- Hungary recorded by far the largest number of outbreaks
Bird flu has been spreading faster in the European Union this season than a milder 2023, raising concerns of a repeat of previous crises that led to the deaths of tens of millions of poultry and renewing fears that it could expand to humans.
Highly pathogenic avian influenza, commonly called bird flu, has killed hundreds of millions birds around the globe in recent years.
However, it has not been detected in humans or in cattle in the EU, unlike the U.S. where the virus has spread to nearly 400 dairy herds in 14 states this year, and has been detected in 36 people since April.
Four of them had been working at a commercial egg farm infected by the virus.
Its spread to humans and other mammal species, including U.S. dairy cattle and swine, is raising concerns that the virus could mutate into one easily transmissible between humans and spark a pandemic.
Between the start of the migratory season on Aug. 1 and the end of last week, EU countries had reported a total of 62 outbreaks of bird flu on poultry farms, mostly in the east of the bloc, World Organisation for Animal Health data showed.
That compares to seven bird flu outbreaks reported on EU farms by the same stage in 2023, but was still well below the 112 outbreaks reported by late October 2022.
“The situation at EU level is surely more worrying than it was at the same stage last year,” said Yann Nedelec, director of French interprofessional poultry group Anvol.
Bird flu is a seasonal disease among poultry, spread mostly through faeces of infected wild birds and transport of infected material. It typically appears in the autumn with migratory birds and decreases in the spring.
Like last season, Hungary recorded by far the largest number of outbreaks since the start of the season on Aug. 1, with the number rising fast in the past weeks, the data showed.
In Poland, the EU’s largest poultry producer, the virus led to the culling of 1.8 million birds, of which nearly 1.4 million were on just one farm in the town of Sroda Wielkopolska.
France, which had suffered the most severe losses in 2022/23 but had been mostly spared last season, reinforced biosecurity measures around poultry farms in mid-October, citing a rise in the number of bird flu cases in several neighbouring countries.
“Still, we hope that the vaccination that we have put in place in France will spare us from any crisis this year,” Nedelec said.
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are up 4 in SRW, up 3 in HRW, up 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/4; Soybeans up 9 3/4; Soymeal down $0.20; Soyoil up 1.32.
For the week so far wheat prices are up 5 1/2 in SRW, up 1/4 in HRW, down 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/4; Soybeans up 6 3/4; Soymeal down $6.50; Soyoil up 2.31.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 9 1/2 in SRW, down 11 1/2 in HRW, down 17 in HRS; Corn is down 11 3/4; Soybeans down 71; Soymeal down $42.30; Soyoil up 1.32.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 8.5% in SRW, down 10.9% in HRW, down 16.4% in HRS; Corn is down 12.4%; Soybeans down 23.3%; Soymeal down 22.5%; Soyoil down 2.9%.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 25) Soybeans up 3 yuan; Soymeal down 13; Soyoil up 108; Palm oil up 138; Corn down 6 — Malaysian Palm is up 176.
Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 176 ringgit (+3.75%) at 4872.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 220 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 126 Corn; 155 Soybeans; 369 Soyoil; 76 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 31 were: SRW Wheat up 7,004 contracts, HRW Wheat up 876, Corn down 14,977, Soybeans up 8,976, Soymeal down 2,654, Soyoil up 6,612.
Brazil: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Mostly Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.
Argentina: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires: Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.
Central/Southern Plains: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Temperatures above normal Friday-Sunday, near to below normal west and above normal east Monday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures below normal west and above normal east Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.
Midwest: West: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Temperatures near normal Friday, above to well above normal Saturday-Monday. East: Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above to well above normal Sunday-Monday. Outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Saturday.
The player sheet for Oct. 31 had funds: net sellers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 5,000 soyoil.
TENDERS
- WHEAT SALES: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC bought at least 600,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender
- SOYMEAL SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 150,000 metric tons of U.S. soymeal for shipment to unknown destinations in the 2024/25 marketing year.
- SOYMEAL PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) on Thursday purchased an estimated 60,000 metric tons of soymeal expected to be sourced from South America, the United States or China
- CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) Busan section in South Korea purchased an estimated 70,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from South America or South Africa in a private deal on Thursday without issuing an international tender
- DURUM TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 75,000 metric tons of durum wheat
PENDING TENDERS
- RICE TENDER: Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog issued an international tender to buy an estimated 500,000 metric tons of rice
- RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice
- RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 4,000 metric tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat, which can be sourced from optional origins
- FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
- RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 101,000 metric tons of rice
- WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat
TODAY
US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country
The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Oct. 24, according to data on the USDA’s website.
- Top buyer of soybeans: China with 715k tons
- Top buyer of corn: Unknown Buyers with 771k tons
- Top buyer of wheat: Mexico with 170k tons
US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country
The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Oct. 24, according to data on the USDA’s website.
- Mexico bought 17.7k tons of the 45.1k tons of pork sold in the week
- South Korea led in beef purchases
Argentine Soy, Corn, Wheat Estimates Oct. 31: Exchange
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.
- 2024-25 corn planting area est. maintained at 6.3m ha
- Soybean area maintained at 19m ha
Argentina’s corn crop could see boost as leafhopper outbreak recedes
Argentine farms planted with corn could surpass the 6.3 million hectares (15.6 million acres) planned for the current crop due to fewer leafhopper insects plaguing the area, after recent harvests sustained major losses due to the bug, a major grains exchange said on Thursday.
The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange (BdeC) also cited improving profit margins as further boosting the South American nation’s 2024/25 corn crop.
Agricultural powerhouse Argentina is the world’s No. 3 corn exporter, only behind Brazil and the United States.
In its weekly crop report, BdeC pointed to the leafhopper’s “low presence” over much of the country’s key farmland possibly leading to an increase in plantings for the 2024/25 corn harvest.
The tiny leafhopper insect sucks sap out of plants, transmitting bacteria that produce stunt disease in corn that has wiped out vast swathes of planted farmland in recent cycles.
Last season, a leafhopper outbreak led to corn losses estimated at 10 million metric tons.
The BdeC calculates that current corn plantings have reached nearly 35% of the estimated area for the crop, which is seen yielding 47 million tons.
The exchange also noted that Argentina’s 2024/25 soybean crop has kicked off without problems due largely to abundant rainfall in recent weeks. It estimates that soy plantings now cover about 3% of the 19 million hectares planned for the country’s top cash crop.
The 2024/25 wheat harvest, meanwhile, is nearly 8% complete, but near-term rain is needed around the southern area of the core agricultural area, according to the BdeC report.
The exchange estimates that the wheat harvest will reach 18.6 million tons.
Ukraine’s October grain exports up 59%, ministry says
Ukraine’s October grain exports rose 58.6% to 3.95 million metric tons from 2.49 million tons a year earlier on higher shipments of corn, barley and wheat, the agriculture ministry said on Friday.
This included 1.64 million tons of wheat, 1.92 million tons of corn and 376,000 tons of barley, the ministry said.
It said grain exports in the 2024/25 July-June season had reached 14.4 million tons as of November 1, up from about 9.2 million tons a year ago.
This included 7.7 million tons of wheat, 4.7 million tons of corn and 1.7 million tons of barley.
Ukraine’s government and farm associations have agreed to limit wheat exports in the 2024/25 season to 16.2 million tons to retain sufficient supplies for the domestic market.
Traders have used almost 47.8% of the agreed wheat export quota so far. There are no curbs on exports of other commodities.
The 2024 combined grain and oilseed crop is expected to fall to 77 million tons, including about 54 million tons of grain, the ministry has said.
Ukraine’s grain exports in the 2023/24 marketing season rose to about 51 million tons from 49.2 million tons the previous year.
Ukraine 2024 grain harvest 91.2% complete at 48 mln tons, ministry says
Ukraine had harvested almost 48 million metric tons of grain from 91.2% of the planted area as of Oct. 31, the agriculture ministry said late on Thursday.
The harvest included 22.3 million tons of wheat, 5.6 million tons of barley, 470,400 tons of peas, and 18.3 million tons of corn.
The ministry said 9.6 million tons of sunflower, 3.5 million tons of rapeseed and 5.7 million tons of soybeans had also been harvested. The ministry has forecast the 2024 corn harvest at about 25 million tons and the wheat crop at about 22 million tons. It expects a 2024 grain harvest of around 54 million tons and together with oilseeds has said the crop could total 77 million tons.
EU 2024-25 Total Grains Production Forecast Cut to 255.6M Tons
The EU’s total grains production is seen at 255.6 million tons, down from a September estimate of 260.9 million tons, the European Commission said in a report.
- Soft-wheat harvest is seen at 112.6m tons in the 2024-25 season, cut from September estimate of 114.6m tons
- Durum wheat production estimate steady at 7.2m tons
- Barley forecast was reduced to 49.8m tons from 50.4m tons
- Corn was also lowered and now expected at 58m tons compared to 60.1m tons
USDA Sees Turkey Wheat-Import Curbs in Place Until Year-End
Turkey’s curbs on wheat imports are likely to continue until the end of 2024, USDA’s FAS attache unit said in a report, citing “market sources.”
- NOTE: Turkish millers were notified last month that they’ll be allowed to import just 15 tons of wheat for every 85 tons they buy from the Turkish grain board, according to a letter seen by Bloomberg
- In June, the country introduced a four-month halt to wheat imports
- “Turkey still has huge inventories of wheat that it is trying to liquidate,” despite production falling by almost 2m tons y/y: report
- USDA says the grain board is selling stocks at around $235-245 a ton, below domestic wheat prices and in line with international prices
- “The government has realized that it must sell its wheat stocks at a discount if it ever hopes to melt down its massive inventories”
- USDA’s FAS cuts MY 2024/25 wheat imports to 6m tons from 7m tons, says imports from June-August this year fell 65% y/y
Brazil to Begin Hedging Grain Derivatives with Physical Delivery
- Ex-Dreyfus executive creates over-the-counter company
- Company will manage and register derivatives from countryside
Brazil is poised to begin hedging corn and soybean derivatives with physical delivery for the first time under the direction of a former Louis Dreyfus Co. executive.
Over-the-counter company Balcão Agrícola do Brasil, founded by Eric Cardoni, will offer trading and registration of derivatives delivered in Brazil’s countryside at sites owned by logistics company Rumo SA.
Grains hedging with physical delivery in the countryside is common in the US but until now did not exist in Brazil. It will allow the grain producing powerhouse and world’s largest soybean exporter to better reflect prices from producing regions.
Balcão Agrícola has received funding of $1.7 million — $1 million of it from Rumo — which is designed to give investors a stake in the company. The firm is expected to launch by year-end, and 15 companies have so far signed up, Cardoni said.
“Big trading companies have a huge exposure to Brazil for its relevance in agriculture production. Having a new hedging instrument will bring more transparency for local markets,” Cardoni said in an interview. “It also assures more transparency for investors who trade commodities futures contracts in Chicago.”
NZ Institute Now Sees 53% Chance That a Weak La Niña Develops
NZ’s National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research comments in seasonal outlook, published Friday in Wellington.
- There is a 53% chance that La Niña develops by the end of 2024, down from 60% reported in early October
- “This event is likely to be weak and short-lived and might stay below traditional La Niña thresholds”
- There are indications for more widespread dry conditions than what is typical for La Niña across much of New Zealand, especially at the beginning of the Nov-Jan outlook period
US to Expand Milk Testing for Bird Flu Detection, Vilsack Says
The US will expand milk testing as part of efforts to curb the spread of bird flu in dairy cows, according to Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack.
The push will begin next month, with the screening of samples of milk stored at processing companies. More specific testing will be conducted in the areas where the virus is detected, so it can be traced to the specific farms where animals are infected.
The move follows steps taken by Colorado, which was able to eradicate bird flu in dairy after implementing an aggressive testing system, Vilsack said at the World Food Prize Foundation’s Borlaug Dialogue conference in Des Moines, Iowa.
Bird flu has quickly spread across dairy-producing states, sickening cows that sometimes have to be culled. The problem has become particularly acute in California, which now accounts for about half of all US registered cases since the outbreak began in March. The risk of contamination to the general public is low, and processed milk and meat remain safe for consumption, according to federal health officials.
Read More: California Farms Are Roiled by 40% of US Bird Flu Cases in Cows
The first detection of bird flu in pigs, which was disclosed on Wednesday, was caused by the contact with wild birds and is “not related to the dairy situation,” Vilsack said.
US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Increase: USDA
Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 738k tons in the week ending Oct. 26 from 486k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.
- Barge shipments of corn fell 16% from the previous week
- Soybean shipments up 110% w/w
- St. Louis barge rates were $33.84 per short ton, an increase of $3.75 from the previous week
US Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending Oct. 29: USDA
The following shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending Oct. 29, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.
- Corn crops experiencing moderate to intense drought rose to 81% last week from 76% in the previous week
- Winter wheat up 4 percentage points to 62% in drought
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