Global Ag News for May 21.24

TOP HEADLINES

Close to 13,000 hogs perish in Brazil flood-hit state

Hog farmers in Rio Grande do Sul lost an estimated 12,600 animals after floods submerged entire towns and destroyed critical infrastructure in Brazil’s southernmost state, hog farmers lobby ACSURS said on Monday after compiling data for two weeks.

ACSURS’ President Valdecir Folador said some 30 farms were affected by the deadly flooding, including suppliers to BRF SA BRFS3.SA and JBS SA’s JBSS3.SA Seara processed foods division.

The companies did not have an immediate comment.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3 3/4 in SRW, down 5 1/4 in HRW, down 3 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 4 3/4; Soybeans down 12 1/2; Soymeal down $1.60; Soyoil down 0.75.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 33 3/4 in SRW, up 29 3/4 in HRW, up 24 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3 1/4; Soybeans up 7 3/4; Soymeal up $3.70; Soyoil up 0.29.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 81 3/4 in SRW, up 56 1/4 in HRW, up 31 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 9; Soybeans up 72 1/2; Soymeal up $20.60; Soyoil up 2.56.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 9.1% in SRW, up 7.7% in HRW, up 1.7% in HRS; Corn is down 3.3%; Soybeans down 4.5%; Soymeal down 3.5%; Soyoil down 4.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 24) Soybeans up 2 yuan; Soymeal up 23; Soyoil up 40; Palm oil up 32; Corn down 5 — Malaysian Palm is down 47. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 47 ringgit (-1.20%) at 3874.

There were changes in registrations (-136 Corn). Registration total: 1,479 SRW Wheat contracts; 39 Oats; 747 Corn; 469 Soybeans; 2,589 Soyoil; 85 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat. Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 20 were: SRW Wheat up 8,168 contracts, HRW Wheat up 3,892, Corn up 5,109, Soybeans up 13,090, Soymeal up 2,044, Soyoil up 2,386.

 

Brazil: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana:  Scattered showers south Tuesday-Wednesday, north Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias:  Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers south Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Argentina: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires:  Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures below normal through Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires:  Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures below normal through Friday.

Northern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures below normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Monday, south Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.

Midwest: West: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday, south Wednesday-Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday. East: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday, south Thursday Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

The player sheet for 5/20 had funds: net buyers of 13,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 10,500 corn, buyers of 9,500 soybeans, buyers of 4,000 soymeal, and buyers of 5,000 soyoil.

PENDING TENDERS

• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• RICE TENDER: Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog’s international tender to buy 300,000 metric tons of rice seeks arrival of the staple in Indonesia by July 31.
• DURUM EXPORT TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to sell and export 75,000 metric tons of durum wheat.

 

 

TODAY

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Winter Wheat Crop 49% Good/Excel.

Highlights from the report:

• Corn planted 70% vs 49% last week, and 76% a year ago
• Corn emerged 40% vs 23% last week, and 46% a year ago
• Soybeans planted 52% vs 35% last week, and 61% a year ago
• Spring wheat planted 79% vs 61% last week, and 57% a year ago
• Spring wheat emerged 43% vs 25% last week, and 27% a year ago
• Soybeans emerged 26% vs 16% last week, and 31% a year ago
• Winter wheat 49% G/E vs 50% last week, and 31% a year ago
• Cotton planted 44% vs 33% last week, and 42% a year ago
• Sorghum planted 32% vs 26% last week, and 32% a year ago

 

US Inspected 1.211m Tons of Corn for Export, 184k of Soybeans

In week ending May 16, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 184k tons vs 433k the previous wk, 170k a yr ago
• Wheat: 206k tons vs 383k the previous wk, 440k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,211k tons vs 1,005k the previous wk, 1,329k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: May 16

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending May 16 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Japan-bound shipments made up 59k tons of the 184k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Philippines led in wheat

 

Bunge’s Brazil unit resuming operations in flood hit state

The Brazilian unit of U.S.-based grain trader Bunge gradually resuming operations in the town of Rio Grande, where it operates a port terminal and a soy crushing unit in southern Brazil, according to a statement on Monday.

Grain reception and loading operations at Bunge’s Rio Grande port has resumed while its local soy crushing unit is expected to go back online by the end of week, the company said.

Both had been closed after severe floods hit Rio Grande do Sul state, which submerged entire towns, disrupted roads and killed livestockin Brazil’s southernmost state. Bunge said its port and crushing facilities in Rio Grande were not directly impacted by the floods, but activities were suspended there on May 9 to ensure the safety of employees.

“We will continue to monitor the situation and continue making decisions focused on people,” it said in the statement.

 

IKAR Cuts 2024 Russia Wheat Crop Estimate by 2.5 Million Tons

Russia’s 2024-25 wheat harvest is now seen at 83.5m tons, below an earlier estimate for 86m tons, IKAR general director Dmitry Rylko says by email.

• Export outlook lowered to 45m tons, from 47m tons
• Estimate for total grain output lowered to 132m tons, from 135m tons
  • Total grain exports now seen at 57m tons, 2.5m tons lower from previous estimates
• NOTE: Parts of Russia are facing a cold snap, damaging crops in key grain and oilseed growing regions
  • Dry weather has also impacted some regions
• NOTE: The country’s agricultural ministry says that 1% of total sowing area has been lost due to frost

 

Ukraine’s Astarta Completes Spring Crops Planting

Ukraine’s Astarta completed the sowing of sugar beet, soybeans, sunflower and corn, company says in an email.

• Astarta grain and oilseed crops for the 2024 harvest include:
  • 12k hectares of rapeseed, down 14% y/y
  • Over 70k hectares of soybeans, up 25% y/y
  • 18k hectares of sunflower, down 36% y/y
  • 49k hectares of winter wheat, up 14% y/y
  • 6k hectares of corn, down 68% y/y
• 38k hectares of sugar beet, down 2.6% y/y
• Astarta started spring crop planting two weeks earlier than usual and expects harvesting of rapeseed to begin in the last decade of June, wheat at the end of June-beginning of July

 

Indonesia Prepares 40% Mix Palm Oil Biodiesel Trial for Trains

The energy and mineral resources ministry conducted an infrastructure survey to prepare for a trial of 40% palm-based biofuel mix, known as B40, for trains, according to a statement on Tuesday.

• A joint inspection on related infrastructure was launched on May 14 with PT Kereta Api Indonesia and Pertamina Patra Logistik
• Ministry to also run B40 trials on ships, heavy equipments, machineries and power plants
• Trials planned to run for eight months

 

Argentina soy farmers wait on rising prices to sell rain-drenched crop

In the fields of Pergamino in Argentina’s grain heartland, farmer Adrian Farroni is revving up his soybean harvest late, delayed by rains that along with low prices have led to the country’s slowest soy sales in a decade.

The South American country’s slow pace selling the oilseed could strainthe region’s supply even as rival Brazil’s crop is dented by major floods. Argentina is one of the biggest global exporters of soyoil and meal that are processed from soybeans.

Argentine farmers had by early May sold 31% of an expected soy harvest of 49.7 million metric tons, their slowest pace since at least the 2014/15 campaign, government data show.

“Generally we start harvesting in April, but it was drizzling and drizzling,” Farroni said in his fields where two combines were working to resume harvesting during a window of cool, dry weather. “So each week, we only harvested for two days and for five days we had to stop.”

Government data show that until last Wednesday farmers had harvested 61% of planted soybean area, behind even the drought-hit harvest pace last season.

A mix of poor weather and low prices has stalled sales, said Dante Romano, a researcher at the Agribusiness Center of the Austral University in grains hub Rosario. Farmers often agree to sales before the crop is fully harvested.

“It’s been a really slow pace of sales, one of the slowest we’ve had in history,” said Romano, who estimated that deals had been struck for only 12% of the soy crop, about half of the average pace for this time of year.

SOY SALES ‘PARALYZED’

Farmers earlier this year were receiving around $270 per ton, Romano said, encouraging them to hold onto their soybean stocks and wait for the market to rebound.

“The producer was making a loss at those prices, which left sales totally paralyzed,” Romano said.

Soy prices are now starting to recover as worries about crop losses due to flooding in Brazil and dryness in north Argentina have offset data indicating lower U.S. demand.

On the Argentina Rosario futures market, July soy futures MSRN4are trading around $315 per ton, down from $350 during planting late last year, but higher than the recent lows, which analysts said was spurring a modest increase in trading.

Farmer Farroni, however, was betting on further soybean price hikes ahead, choosing to sell his wheat and legumes for now to get by financially, while mostly holding onto his soy.

“It’s still not tempting to sell soy,” he said. “Whoever can hold out and delay sales is waiting.”

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Area planted with wheat may decrease

In spite of recent price rises for wheat and the decrease in production costs in 2024 compared to the year before, producers’ margins are smaller. According to data from Cepea, the revenue estimated in April was aligned with operational costs, which means that, when considering total costs, margins are negative. In 2023, Cepea estimates indicated positive margins comparing revenue and operational costs.

Conab forecasts that the wheat area may decrease 11.1% in this season, to 3.086 million hectares. The productivity, in turn, is expected to move up 26.2% in the same comparison. Therefore, production is likely to hit 9.082 million tons, 12.2% up compared to 2023.

Imports are estimated by Conab at 6 million tons from August/24 to July/25. Thus, the domestic availability may amount 15.18 million tons, against 15.44 million tons between August/23 and July/24. The domestic consumption, in turn, is forecast at 12.49 million tons, against 15.34 million tons in the crop before. Exports from August/24 to July/25 continue projected at 2 million tons.

Up to May 12, according to Conab, 21% of the area in Brazil had been planted – in Goiás, Minas Gerais and Mato Grosso do Sul, activities surpassed 70% of the total.

PRICES – Producers are firm regarding quotations, especially for high-quality product (PH>78). As a result, values are moving up. Trades are closed only when there are immediate needs, since wheat mills are receiving the grain traded previously.

According to data from Cepea, between May 10 and 17, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) increased 0.97% in Santa Catarina, 2.82% in Rio Grande do Sul and 3.87% in Paraná. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values upped 2.06% in São Paulo, 1.92% in Paraná, 1.63% in Rio Grande do Sul and 0.25% in Santa Catarina. Dollar quotations dropped 1.03% against Real, at BRL 5.104 on May 17.

BYPRODUCTS – Due to prices rises for wheat grains, most part of wheat mills increased quotations of byproducts. From May 10-17, values of wheat bran in bags rose 0.27% and prices of the product in bulk moved up 0.79%.

EXPORTS – According to data from Secex, Brazil imported 270 thousand tons of wheat in the first seven working days of May, 4.7% down compared to that in May/23 (283.52 thousand tons). Exports totaled 50 thousand tons in the partial of this month, against 68.2 thousand tons in the same month of 2023.

 

 

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