Global Ag News for May 12.22
TODAY – USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND MAY 12 REPORT
Wheat prices overnight are down 7 3/4 in SRW, down 7 in HRW, down 5 in HRS; Corn is down 4 1/2; Soybeans down 14; Soymeal up $0.02; Soyoil down 1.28.
For the week so far wheat prices are down 3 1/4 in SRW, up 23 in HRW, up 42 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans down 29 1/4; Soymeal down $1.54; Soyoil up 1.32. For the month to date wheat prices are up 49 1/2 in SRW, up 87 3/4 in HRW, up 85 in HRS; Corn is down 29 1/2; Soybeans down 92; Soymeal down $34.20; Soyoil down 2.01.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 43% in SRW, up 48% in HRW, up 27% in HRS; Corn is up 35%; Soybeans up 23%; Soymeal down -3%; Soyoil up 59%.
Chinese Ag futures (SEP 22) Soybeans up 55 yuan; Soymeal up 15; Soyoil up 146; Palm oil up 70; Corn up 3 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 134 ringgit (-2.07%) at 6342.
There were changes in registrations (-72 SRW Wheat, -3 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 1,078 SRW Wheat contracts; 25 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 98 Soyoil; 50 Soymeal; 151 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 11 were: SRW Wheat down 1,023 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,101, Corn up 5,222, Soybeans up 7,846, Soymeal down 333, Soyoil up 2,127.
Northern Plains Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal west and near to above normal east through Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday.
Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Periods of isolated showers through Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.
Western Midwest Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, above normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.
Eastern Midwest Forecast: Isolated showers northwest through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Sunday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.
Canadian Prairies Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Sunday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal east and near to above normal west Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday.
Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers south Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.
Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires: Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday.
The player sheet for 5/11 had funds: net buyers of 15,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 10,000 corn, buyers of 8,000 soybeans, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 5,000 soyoil.
- WHEAT SALE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 196,560 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in regular tenders that closed on Thursday.
- WHEAT SALE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has started buying optional-origin milling wheat in an international tender which closed on Wednesday with initial purchases reported around $466 a tonne c&f
- WHEAT SALE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in a tender which closed on Wednesday
- BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
- FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said that it will seek 70,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 40,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Aug. 31 and arrive in Japan by Oct. 27, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on May 18.
- RICE TENDER: South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 136,000 tonnes of rice
- WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase 40,000 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States
- WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
DOE: U.S. Ethanol Stocks Rise 1.1% to 24.14M Bbl
razil’s next soybean crop forecast to grow 19.5% to 146 mln T – Patria
Brazil’s 2022/2023 soybean harvest has been estimated at 146 million tonnes, up 19.5% from the previous season, when a drought damaged part of the crop, Patria Agronegocios said on Wednesday.
Brazil’s area planted with soybeans in the next season will be expanded by 2.8% to 42.17 million hectares (104.204 million acres), Patria said in its first forecast for the season starting in September.
Two Ukrainian Traders Say Russia Confiscated Wheat, Oilseeds
Two Ukrainian traders said that the Russian military had confiscated grain and goods in occupied areas of the country.
- Ukrainian trader Prometey Group said that the Russian military had taken products from its grain storages located in Zaporizhzhia and Mykolaiv regions of southeastern Ukraine, according to a statement on its website
- Oilseeds, equipment and 100m tons of fertilizers were taken from one of its storages, while another faces “similar problems,” company said
- Eight out of the company’s 33 storage facilities are in the risk zone
- Separately, Zaporizhzhia-based Poletehnika said in a separate statement that illegal local “authorities” appointed by Russian occupying forces ordered to seize wheat and barley from the company’s storages in Berdyansk
- Storages contained total of about 40,500 tons of wheat; about 2,000 tons have already been taken to Crimea which is occupied by Russia: statement
- A spokesperson for the Russian defence ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Bloomberg
Edible Oils May Slump From July on Surge in Indonesian Supply
Edible oil prices may slump from July onward as supplies could sharply rise after Indonesia lifts its export ban, according to an official at Savola Foods.
- “I am bearish on global vegetable oil prices,” said Tajgir Rahman, general manager of oils and wheat trading and hedging at the company. When the ban on Indonesian edible oil exports is removed, the market will be flooded with palm oil, he said
- The tropical oil would need to heavily discount itself against soft oils to stay competitive
- Demand for vegetable oils has slumped in several markets, including the Middle East and Africa, due to a surge in prices, he said in an interview at the Globoil International conference in Dubai
- It’s a difficult situation for the company because it’s not able to raise local prices in countries such as Egypt, Turkey and Morocco as local governments are concerned about inflation. “Our margins are getting squeezed,” Rahman said
- NOTE: Palm and soybean oils recently climbed to a record. Prices have surged 37% and 46%, respectively, this year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine locked out exports of sunflower oil and Indonesia imposed a ban on palm oil exports to protect its domestic market
- NOTE: The company, which annually buys about 1.8m tons of edible oils, has food-related businesses in several countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, Egypt and Algeria
Drought in France Is Worrying for Coming Grain Harvests: AgriMer
Consequences of the current dry spell in France “are starting to worry us,” Benoit Pietrement, chair of the grains council at crops office FranceAgriMer, said Wednesday in a press briefing.
- NOTE: Two-thirds of the country is facing dry to very dry soils, according to Meteo France
- “We really have our eyes on the weather,” he says
- “We really need some rain in coming weeks, or even in the next 10 days. Otherwise, it could be really hard”
- FranceAgriMer revised its soft-wheat export outlook lower based on the coronavirus situation in China, says Paul Le Bideau, deputy head of grains and sugar
- Downgrade for barley exports also partly due to lower China demand
- It’s too early to know which shippers may see rising demand due to the downturn in Ukraine’s wheat production and exports, says Marc Zribi, head of the grains unit
India May Buy 65,000 Tons of Sunoil a Month From Russia: Bajoria
India is expected to import 65,000 tons of sunflower oil from Russia and 30,000 tons from Argentina every month from May onward, according to Sandeep Bajoria, chief executive officer of Sunvin Group.
- That’s going to take care of demand from major branded players in India’s refining sector, he said in an interview at Globoil International conference in Dubai
- Price-sensitive buyers have shifted to palm olein, soybean oil and local rapeseed and groundnut oils, said Bajoria, a Mumbai-based trader of vegetable oils
- India’s sunflower oil imports may fall to 1.65m tons in 2021-22 from 1.9m tons a year earlier due to poor supplies from the Black Sea region following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
- NOTE: Sunflower oil accounts for about 9% of India’s edible oil consumption. No shipments have come from Ukraine since March 27 due to the war. The nation bought 1.4m tons of sunflower oil from Ukraine and 226,000 tons from Russia in 2021
- India can manage for another 10 days, but if the Indonesian export ban is not lifted by May 20, then the world’s top buyer of edible oils will face palm oil shortage
- “Palm oil consumers will have to pay the price, which will be equal to soft oils or maybe even higher”
- “However, we are hopeful that the Indonesian government will take an appropriate decision. It would be in the interest of the exporting nation, as well as in the interest of its long-term trading partners”
- The ban, at least on crude palm oil, should be partially lifted by May 20: Bajoria
France Helping West African Nations to Boost Wheat Stockpiles
Agence Francaise de Developpement is providing financial support to help West African nations boost their wheat stockpiles and cope with the impact of the war in Ukraine, Deputy Managing Director Marie-Helene Loison says in an interview.
- AFD’s financing to Ecowas member states will ensure better management of their inventories and boost stockpiles to the highest possible level
- It’s important for Ecowas states to step up purchases and inventories before full impact of the wheat production crisis is felt in 2023
- AFD’s financing to Ecowas member states is not conditional on buying grains of French origin
- AFD also plans budgetary support to help West African states and possibly Tunisia and Lebanon mitigate impact of higher subsidy spending on commodities
- Lebanon lost storage capacity after explosion at Beirut port
Brazil’s Raizen to invest $390 mln in second generation ethanol plants
Brazilian sugar-maker Raizen approved on Wednesday a 2 billion reais ($389.29 million) investment to build two second-generation ethanol plants, as part of the company’s strategy to expand its portfolio of renewable fuel.
The new plants, which are going to be located in its energy parks in Sao Paulo state, will add a capacity of 164 thousand cubic meters of biofuel per year and are expected to start operation in 2024.
The company already operates one second generation ethanol plant and is in the construction phase of another. All four plants will have total capacity of 280 thousand cubic meters per year, of which 80% was already commercialized in long-term contracts.
Raizen said the new plants, along with the construction of a previously announced biomethane plant, “are important milestones in the progression of the company’s strategy to expand its profitable renewable portfolio.”
Piecemeal Supply Temporarily Soothing Brazil’s Fertilizer Fever
Brazilian fertilizer prices are slipping from record highs, and may continue to do so through week-end, as the shock of Russian sanctions wanes and market participants adapt to trade and transport restrictions. Yet the threat of insufficient fertilizer supply this year remains, given Russia’s historic role as a top supplier poses multiple risks.
Data Hint at Stable, If Not Falling, Prices
As of Wednesday, Brazilian nitrogen prices appear to be down by more than $100 a metric tonne, with offers narrowing to $700-$740 at ports. Decreased demand and high supply globally suggest prices could close lower this week. India’s urea tender offers were 1.1 million tons above the request, and Brazilian market participants expect more decreases, though tender levels haven’t been disclosed. Phosphate prices have remained relatively stable, with Chinese and Russian offers unchanged at $1,150 and $1,200/mt at ports, respectively. Prices in the interior may ease as sellers move inventory. Potash prices adjusted $5/mt lower, still accounting for supply disruptions.
China to sell 500,000 tonnes of reserve soybeans on May 13 – trade centre
China will auction off 500,000 tonnes of imported soybeans from its state reserve on May 13, the National Grain Trade Center said in a statement on Thursday.
The statement was an update to an earlier announcement which said the centre planned to sell only 314,000 tonnes on May 13.
China Sees 2022-23 Corn Imports Falling 10% to 18M Tons: CASDE
China’s 2022-23 corn imports may slide 10% y/y to 18 million tons on high international prices, according to the latest China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
- Report gives 2022-23 estimates for the first time
- China’s total corn consumption is expected to be 291 million tons in 2022-23, an increase of 1% over the previous year
- Higher consumption of corn in animal feed will offset weaker demand for industrial processing
- Domestic corn planting area to shrink 1.8% to 42.5 million hectares as China encourages farmers to grow more soybean to reduce import reliance
- Corn production seen little changed at 273 million tons as higher yields expected
- China’s 2022-23 soybean acreage may expand 18.3% to 9.93m hectares due to higher subsidies to spur planting
- Production to jump 18.8% to 19.48m tons
- As hog breeding profitability improves, soybean crushing and imports are set to rise slightly
- Soy imports for 2022-23 are expected to reach 95.2m tons, an increase of 2.4% over the previous year
- Cotton planting area to inch up 0.2% to 3.03m hectares in 2022-23
- Cotton output expected to rise 0.2% to 5.74m tons
- China’s cotton consumption may drop by 50,000 tons to 8.05m, while imports may also shrink by 50,000 tons to 2.05m
- China expects 2022-23 edible oil output of 29.25m tons, up 1.1m tons from the previous year
- Increase in area sown to soybean and rapeseed in the new season will lead to higher output
- Imports of edible oils may drop by 100,000 tons to 8.43m tons, mainly due to lower purchases of sunflower oil from Ukraine
- Total edible oils consumption is expected to remain stable
- China also cut its 2021-22 vegetable oil production forecast to 28.15m tons, down 1.44m from previous estimate
DRV Cuts German Grain Harvest Estimate by 700K Tons on Dry Spell
Germany’s 2022 grains harvest is now seen at 42.9m tons, down from an April outlook of 43.6m tons, agricultural cooperatives group DRV says in an emailed report.
- In parts of the east, there has been no substantial rainfall for five weeks, says DRV grain-market analyst Guido Seedler
- Noticeable yield losses are likely without rain heavy rain in the coming days
- Soil moisture is also growing scarce in the north and west
- Wheat crop estimate at 22.4m tons, versus April outlook of 22.7m tons
- Barley crop estimate at 10.4m tons, versus 10.6m tons
- Rapeseed crop estimate at 3.8m tons, versus 3.9m tons
- Corn crop estimate little changed at 4.3m tons
Strategie Cuts EU Soft-Wheat Crop Outlook 0.5m Tons on Dryness
Overly dry conditions are affecting crops in Europe, particularly in France, which could reduce yield potential, analyst Strategie Grains said in an emailed report.
- “Such a development would very quickly tighten the supply outlooks for wheat and barley and would bring further complications” for corn
- For now, EU wheat supplies appear “comfortable” for the coming season
- Food and feed consumption are being eroded by high grain prices
- Exports are also limited by competition from Russia, which is expected to see high sales despite broader economic sanctions
- Perfect weather in Russia points to a record wheat harvest
- EU corn-supply outlook is “far more precarious,” due to a smaller local harvest and limited imports from Ukraine
Dryness to Shrink Argentina Wheat Planting by 8% Y/y: Rosario
Lack of surface moisture means farmers will plant 6.35m hectares (15.7m acres) of wheat in the 2022-23 season vs. 6.9m last year, the Rosario Board of Trade says in a monthly estimates report.
- NOTE: Argentina starts planting wheat at the end of the month
- If growing conditions are good, Argentina could harvest 19m metric tons vs. 22.1m last season
- But dryness now may be compounded by the threat of a third consecutive La Nina
- Farmers are also grappling with high costs and will fertilize less
- In the breadbasket region of southern Buenos Aires province, wheat planting will shrink by 5-10%, with farmers shifting to barley and sunflowers
- Soy harvest 75% complete and developing well despite diesel shortages; production estimate kept at 41.2m tons
- Corn harvest 40% complete; production estimate kept at 49.2m tons, but may rise as better-yielding late crop is collected
U.S. wheat production slightly up thanks to recent beneficial rains in the Central/Southern Plains – Refinitiv Commodities Research
2022/23 U.S. WHEAT PRODUCTION: 47.7 [43.8–51.5] MILLION TONS, UP <1% FROM LAST UPDATE
Updated weather/satellite imagery and condition scores fractionally increase 2022/23 U.S. total wheat production to 47.7 [43.8–51.5] million tons. Our current median estimate puts national-level winter wheat yield at 46.3 bushels per acre (bpa), 7.8% below last season and 10% below trend yield. This leads to total winter wheat production of 34.2 [31.0–37.3] million tons, down 1.7% compared to last season, but up 1% from last update. Production of total spring wheat is estimated at 13.5 [12.8–14.2] million tons (with durum and other spring wheat at 1.51 and 12.0 million tons, respectively), virtually unchanged from last update.
Warmer and drier weather (compared to recent weeks) prevailed across much of the Northern Plains and the West over the past 10 days, after relentless wet conditions since late March. Relatively favorable weather conditions compared to late April allowed for some acceleration in spring wheat plantings. Nonetheless, they are still far behind schedule at the national level, only 27% complete as of 08 May according to the USDA’s latest crop progress report, significantly behind last year’s 67% and the five-year average of 47%. Planting windows are fairly large in key producing areas, and crop insurance final planting dates for spring wheat are still far away (e.g. 31 May–05 June for the majority of core regions), but the potential risks associated with lingering delays should not be overlooked, especially given the return of wetter weather later this week.
On the winter wheat front, USDA’s latest Crop Progress report (09 May) continues to indicate historically poor conditions, with only 29% of the crop in good or excellent (GEX) condition (vs. 27% last week and 49% last year). Texas is seeing a considerable reduction in the scores with only 7% GEX (vs. 30% last year) and a whopping 77% in PVP (poor or very poor) condition (vs. 31% last year). Kansas and Oklahoma are faring relatively better, with 37% and 47% of the respective crop in PVP condition, but yield prospects are still daunting as historically low GEX ratings continue for both crops (with only 28% and 20% in the GEX category, respectively). Vegetation densities derived from satellite imagery continue to coincide with the dismal crop condition scores, with all three key hard red winter (HRW) wheat regions showing record-low (or near record-low) density levels.
Continued dryness in the Central-West/South slightly lowers Brazil’s second corn yield – Refinitiv Commodities Research
2021/22 BRAZIL CORN PRODUCTION: 112.4 [105.1–118.0] MILLION TONS, DOWN <1% FROM LAST UPDATE
2021/22 Brazil total corn production is fractionally lowered to 112.4 [105.1–118.0] million tons, amid continued unfavorable weather throughout most second crop corn regions, including drier portions of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goiás in the Central-West. Our current median estimate is 3.6 million ton below the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 116 million tons, which assumes total corn sowings at 21.1 million hectares and national level yield of 5.5 tons per hectare (tph) (vs. Refinitiv Ag Research’s 21 million hectares and 5.35 tph, respectively). Brazil’s agriculture state agency (CONAB) has lately pegged corn production and area at 115.6 million tons and 21.2 million hectares, respectively. As of 07 May, Brazil’s first corn is 76% harvested according to the latest CONAB crop progress report (09 May), ahead of last year’s pace (+6.3%). Weather over the next 10 days will likely bring moderate conditions (compared to recent weeks) for most second corn producing areas. Temperatures during this period should cool down and hover around near normal or slightly below average levels in much of Central-West and the South. However, dryness is expected to continue across most key regions, warranting attention.
China soybean imports to decline from last year’s record high amid less Brazilian soybean arrivals
Refinitiv trade flow tracked 7.72 million tons of soybean imports in China in April, including 1.38 million tons from the United States and 6.34 million tons from Brazil. The figure is a 18% increase from a month earlier and a 4% year-on-year increase. The strong imports in April raised total China soybean imports as of 30 April to 26.54 million tons, slightly above last year’s same period and the highest volume for the period in history.
However, as we discussed in previous updates, current high soybean prices, reduced soybean supplies in South America and low profits of hog industry in China have reduced China’s appetites for soybeans and limited imports. According Refinitiv trade flows, so far 7.66 million tons of soybeans are heading for and will arrive in China in May, compared 9.56 million tons for May 2021 and 10.97 million tons for May 2020. The weak May imports are primarily attributed to less soybean arrivals from Brazil. Only 6.38 million tons of Brazilian soybeans are projected to arrive in China in May, down 30% and 40% from May 2021 and 2020, respectively. Production losses and reduced supplies determine that South American soybean exports this season will drop dramatically from a year ago. As a result, China soybean imports will likely be weaker than last year over the following months until U.S. new crop soybeans come to the market in September.
With concerns of tightening soybean supplies in South America, China is purchasing a record amount of U.S. soybeans to secure its soybean supplies for the upcoming season. As of 28 April, U.S. soybean sales to China for 2022/23 delivery increased to 7.3 million tons, compared to 3.1 million tons for last year’s same period. Outstanding soybean sales to China for current marketing year also approached 2.3 million tons, compared to 0.7 million tons for prior season.
Brazil Cut Import Tax on Steel Rebar, Beef, Chicken, Wheat
Brazil’s Foreign Trade Chamber, locally known as Camex, has zeroed taxes on beef, chicken, wheat and wheat flour, corn in grain, crackers and biscuits and other bakery and pastry products, Camex secretary Ana Paula Rapezza told reporters.
- There was also a tax reduction for agricultural production inputs such as sulfuric acid, which is used in the fertilizer production chain, and mancozeb, a fungicide
- Steel rebar import tariff was reduced to 4%
- Tax cut for rebars was implemented following complaints from civil construction sector, secretary said
- Reductions take effect today and are valid until Dec. 31
- Measure has a tax impact of 700m reais
- Cuts in import taxes aimed at containing inflation impacts on consumer prices, Executive Secretary of Economy Ministry Marcelo Guaranys said
India Working With US and Brazil on Ethanol Push
India sees now as the time to reorient its economy towards favoring renewable fuel based on ethanol, says Prashant Banerjee of SIAM. Speaking at the Citi ISO Datagro NY Sugar Conference today, Banerjee says that India, which is already the fifth largest ethanol producer globally and has the fourth largest auto industry in the world, is looking towards the experience of Brazil and the Americas in order to incorporate more volumes of renewable fuels into the everyday lives of traveling. In turn, India hopes to learn more about US options.
Severe Heat Waves to Sear India’s Rajasthan Until Monday: IMD
Severe heat waves are likely to continue in some areas of the northern Indian state of Rajasthan until at least May 16, according to the India Meteorological Department.
- Heat waves are also seen at some places in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Jammu & Kashmir, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana and Punjab this week
- NOTE: The weather office defines a heat wave as when actual maximum temperatures exceed 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit)
- India recorded a maximum temperature of 46.5 degrees Celsius on Wednesday at Barmer in Rajasthan
- No significant change in maximum temperatures is likely in northwestern and central India during the next 4 days
- NOTE: Heat waves could hamper wheat harvesting in northern states
- Heavy rainfall seen at isolated places of coastal Andhra Pradesh on Thursday; light to moderate rain in some areas of Odisha and West Bengal
- Showers likely in Karnataka, Kerala and Bihar for 5 days through Monday
- NOTE: India’s education ministry issued guidelines on Wednesday for schools to help combat the “ill-effects” of the heat wave
- NOTE: Rain will spur sowing of summer-sown rice, oilseeds and pulses
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