Global Ag News for Mar 21.23

TOP HEADLINES

Britain reports case of atypical mad cow disease

Britain has reported a case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), commonly called mad cow disease, in the southwestern county of Cornwall, the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) said on Monday.

The case of the case of atypical H-type BSE was confirmed in a 17-year-old indigenous cow on a beef suckler farm, WOAH said in a note, citing information from the British authorities.

FUTURES & WEATHER

For the week so far wheat prices are down 12 3/4 in SRW, down 7 1/4 in HRW, down 9 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 2; Soybeans up 7 1/2; Soymeal down $0.38; Soyoil up 0.41.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 7 3/4 in SRW, up 15 3/4 in HRW, down 15 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 2; Soybeans up 5; Soymeal down $4.80; Soyoil down 2.17.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 11.9% in SRW, down 6.7% in HRW, down 9.3% in HRS; Corn is down 6.8%; Soybeans down 2.3%; Soymeal down 3.4%; Soyoil down 9.3%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 23) Soybeans down 36 yuan; Soymeal down 27; Soyoil up 2; Palm oil down 62; Corn down 39 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 9 ringgit (-0.24%) at 3776.

There were changes in registrations (-11 Soybeans). Registration total: 2,537 SRW Wheat contracts; 23 Oats; 73 Corn; 199 Soybeans; 613 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 88 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 20 were: SRW Wheat up 912 contracts, HRW Wheat up 163, Corn down 1,846, Soybeans down 6,120, Soymeal down 3,360, Soyoil up 624.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Scattered showers are continuing over the interior of Brazil this week, but will be spottier across southern and eastern areas. That will help to increase the remaining safrinha corn planting. Soil moisture is good for the corn in the ground. Showers will decrease later this week over central areas as the wet season is showing signs of slowing down, not a good outlook if that continues over the next few weeks as well.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: A front slides into central areas early this week and then to northern areas later in the week. Some heavier rain will continue with the front, but is likely too late for much of the damaged corn and soybean crops. However, stabilization will likely occur if the showers are as heavy as forecast. Temperatures will remain above normal until a cold front moves through next week.

Northern Plains Forecast: Temperatures remain well below normal for the next couple of weeks, requiring higher inputs than normal for livestock, and limiting snow melt. A system moves through on Tuesday with scattered precipitation and some areas of moderate snow but the rest of the week is likely dry as systems pass by to the south.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Temperatures rise early this week but will be squashed later this week as a cold front is slowly pushed southward through the region by a few storm systems. These systems will produce scattered precipitation across the region with the strongest storm in the series occurring Thursday into Friday which has the best chance at bringing precipitation to the southwestern drought areas. There may be another over the weekend that could do so as well, but chances are low for meaningful precipitation outside of Kansas and Colorado’s winter wheat areas.

Midwest Forecast: A string of systems will push a cold front through the region this week, bringing widespread precipitation through the region yet again. Another may come through this weekend as well. A wet end to March is likely to lead to some delays for early fieldwork heading into April. Temperatures will be waffling to end the month as well.

Delta Forecast: Temperatures will be more on the upside for this week. A series of storms will push a cold front through the region later this week with several chances for additional precipitation that will keep area rivers high and fieldwork slow.

The player sheet for 3/20 had funds: net sellers of 5,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,000 corn, sellers of 3,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,500 soymeal, and  buyers of 1,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued an international tender to purchase up to 70,000 tonnes of animal feed corn to be sourced from Argentina or Brazil.
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 56,300 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat, which can be sourced from optional origins
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 121,800 tonnes of rice.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley.

TODAY

US Inspected 1.189m Tons of Corn for Export, 717k of Soybeans

In week ending March 16, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Wheat: 374k tons vs 257k the previous wk, 335k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,189k tons vs 1,015k the previous wk, 1,497k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 717k tons vs 633k the previous wk, 557k a yr ago

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: March 16

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending March 16 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 406k tons of the 717k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, China led in wheat

Kansas, Texas Winter Wheat Conditions Improved Last Week: USDA

The following shows the most current winter wheat conditions for selected states as of March 19, according to the USDA’s state crop progress and conditions reports.

• Kansas good/excellent rating rose 2 percentage points in the week ending March 19
• Texas conditions up 6 points to 23% good/excellent
• Oklahoma conditions lowered by a point

China Will Need To Re-Stock On Grains, Feeds: ED&F Man’s Haque

China is likely to try and pick a market bottom to buy grains and soft commodities if prices drop further, ED&F Man’s Head of Research Kona Haque said at the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland.

• “Grains are much lower than they were before the war, but much higher than they were before Covid. We are talking about historically high prices and China being savvy traders they will try to pick a bottom”
• Current China stocks are “okay” for most grains and soft commodities like sugar
• “When prices come down they will be the first to come and buy”
• China’s swine herd “needs rebuilding so there will be demand for corn, sorghum”
• China’s strained relationship with major grains producer US will mean it buys more from Brazil

Brazil 2022/23 Soy Harvest 62% Done as of March 16: AgRural

This compares with 53% a week ago and 69% last year at the same time, consulting firm AgRural said in an emailed report.

• Work slowed down due to the rains, AgRural said
  • With the exception of Rio Grande do Sul state, where the drought continues to reduce production, productivity reports remain high throughout the country
• Brazil Center-South winter corn planting was at 91% as of March 16 versus 81% in the previous week and 97% a year earlier, AgRural said

Ukraine’s 2022 soybean crop up 7% at 3.7 mln T -ministry

Ukraine’s soybean harvest increased by 7% to 3.7 million tonnes last year, the agriculture ministry said on Monday.

The ministry said farmers had harvested 1.5 million hectares of the commodity, most of which is usually exported.

Ukrainian officials, producers and analysts have said the 2023 soybean sowing area is likely to be expanded.

Ukraine’s 2023 grain harvest seen falling to 44.3 mln T – farm ministry

Ukraine’s 2023 grain harvest is likely to fall to 44.3 million tonnes from 53.1 million in 2022 as less acreage is sown due to the Russian invasion, a forecast by the Ukrainian agriculture ministry showed on Monday.

The crop could include 16.6 million tonnes of wheat, 21.7 million tonnes of corn and 4.8 million tonnes of barley, the ministry said.

Ukraine is a major global grain and oilseed producer and exporter, but its production and exports fell sharply after Russia occupied a swathe of Ukrainian territory and blocked key Black Sea ports in the second half of last season.

In 2022 Ukraine harvested 20.5 million tonnes of wheat, 25.6 million tonnes of corn and 5.6 million tonnes of barley. It harvested a record 86 million tonnes of grain in peaceful 2021.

“The reduction in grain sowing acreage, coupled with the projected decline in average yields caused by rising prices of key inputs, will affect harvest volumes,” the ministry said.

It said the grain sowing area is expected to total 10.2 million hectares, 1.4 million hectares less than a year earlier.

The area for winter wheat is seen shrinking to 4.17 million hectares, down 834,000 hectares from 2022. Corn will likely be sown on 3.6 million hectares, a decrease of 451,000 hectares from the previous year.

At the same time, gross production of oilseeds is expected to increase to 19.2 million tonnes this year from 18.2 million tonnes in 2022 due to a larger sowing area for the more lucrative crop, according to the ministry forecast.

The sunflower seed harvest is seen at 11.5 million tonnes this year, up from 11.1 million tonnes in 2022.

Rapeseed output could rise to 3.8 million tonnes from 3.7 million tonnes last year. Soybeans could total 3.9 million tonnes versus 3.4 million tonnes.

Ukraine’s national academy of agricultural science said this month that the grain harvest could fall 37% to 34 million tonnes in 2023 because of a smaller grain sowing area and lower yields.

Ukraine’s Grain Exports Fall 20% in Season Through March 21

Ukraine’s grain exports declined to 35.8m tons in the season through March 21 from 44.8m tons a year earlier, the Agriculture Ministry said on its website.

Total includes:

• 21m tons of corn, up 2% y/y
• 12.3m tons of wheat, down 34% y/y
• 2.2m tons of barley, down 61% y/y

Russian 2023-24 Wheat Harvest May Fall, Exports to Rise: UAC

Total grains production in Russia this year is seen at 127.9m tons, down 19% y/y, Black Sea analyst UkrAgroConsult says in a note.

• Winter-crop plantings fell slightly versus the prior season and estimate factors in average yields
• The total includes:
  • 82.6m tons of wheat, down 21% y/y
  • 19.2m tons of barley, down 18% y/y
  • 14.2m tons of corn, down 10% y/y
• Still, exports could rise due to large stockpiles carried over from the current season
  • Wheat shipments seen at 45m tons, up from 42m tons this year

EU crop monitor projects higher soft wheat yield this year q67

European Union crop monitoring service MARS on Monday forecast that the average soft wheat yield in the EU this year would reach 5.99 tonnes per hectare (t/ha), up 3% from 2022.

In its first yield forecasts for 2023, MARS projected the EU winter barley yield at 5.91 t/ha, virtually unchanged from last year, and pegged the bloc’s average rapeseed yield at 3.29 t/ha, down 1% from last year.

Malaysia’s B20 Biofuel Mix to Be Rolled Out in Phases: Minister

Malaysia’s nationwide implementation of its B20 biodiesel program in the transport sector will take place in phases, according to Minister of Plantation and Commodities Fadillah Yusof.

• The nationwide roll-out will depend on the availability of biofuel blending infrastructure in the country, Fadillah, who is also Deputy Prime Minister, said in parliament Tuesday
  • B7 blend in the industrial sector has been mandatory since 2019, Fadillah said
• NOTE: Malaysia, the world’s No. 2 palm oil producer, launched its B20 program in 2020, but slowed the implementation last year to prioritize vegetable oil supply for food
• Industry regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board is working with China’s Tsinghua University to study the use of palm-biodiesel in Chinese-made vehicle engines, as well as the feasibility of using palm-biojet fuel as a type of sustainable aviation fuel
  • The board is also collaborating with six Malaysian universities to study the use of B30 in diesel engines

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