Global Ag News for Mar 10.23
NOAA Confirms End of La Niña
The NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says that the long-running La Niña climate system has finally come to an end after three winters, with the climate now neutral and possibly forming into an El Niño system late in the summer or in the fall. The change to the weather pattern comes ahead of the next planting season for US farmers — with some crop-growing states like Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and Texas still suffering with areas of exceptional drought, according to the latest data from the US Drought Monitor also released this morning.
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are up 1/2 in SRW, up 3/4 in HRW, down 3 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/2; Soybeans down 7 1/4; Soymeal down $0.43; Soyoil down 0.21.
For the week so far wheat prices are down 42 1/2 in SRW, down 38 1/4 in HRW, down 58 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 28 1/2; Soybeans down 15 1/4; Soymeal up $0.13; Soyoil down 4.35.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 39 1/4 in SRW, down 34 3/4 in HRW, down 52 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 19 1/4; Soybeans up 24 1/2; Soymeal up $15.50; Soyoil down 3.19.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 17.5% in SRW, down 11.5% in HRW, down 13.6% in HRS; Corn is down 8.4%; Soybeans up 0.0%; Soymeal up 3.3%; Soyoil down 12.0%.
Chinese Ag futures (MAY 23) Soybeans up 61 yuan; Soymeal up 7; Soyoil down 90; Palm oil down 62; Corn up 7 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 112 ringgit (-2.66%) at 4093.
There were changes in registrations (33 Corn, -22 Soybeans). Registration total: 2,587 SRW Wheat contracts; 43 Oats; 95 Corn; 206 Soybeans; 652 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 135 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 9 were: SRW Wheat up 12,675 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,984, Corn up 26,971, Soybeans up 5,365, Soymeal up 3,005, Soyoil up 10,626.
Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Scattered showers continue for much of Brazil’s growing regions for the next week outside of Minas Gerais and Rio Grande do Sul, where showers will be more limited. Despite recent rains, many areas have made significant progress with regard to soybean harvest and corn planting. However, some areas are behind, somewhat significantly, and will expose more of the corn crop to the dry season which is forecast start up in April and frosts that may occur in June. Corn already in the ground will benefit from good soil moisture.
Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Dry conditions continue to be a concern for immature corn and soybeans in Argentina moving forward. Any showers will be limited for the next week, though isolated showers may move through at times. Southern areas stand the best chance at continued precipitation going into next week, but for most areas, the rain is too late to have much of an impact. Showers will spread through more of the country later next week. Heat that developed last week continues through next week with daytime highs near 100 degrees Fahrenheit when the rains do not occur. The heat and dryness are keeping stresses high for both crops in various stages of growth.
Northern Plains Forecast: Waves of snow will continue across the Northern Plains and southern Canadian Prairies through the weekend, adding up to some hefty amounts for a lot of the region over the course of this week. Colder air also will be in place for a while, with higher inputs than normal required for livestock.
Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Scattered showers continue Thursday. Temperatures will waffle around over the next 10 days, but mainly be cooler than normal. Another system will move through over the weekend with some showers, but precipitation continues to be limited for southwestern areas where drought remains in control.
Midwest Forecast: Waves of precipitation continue in the Midwest through Monday with some heavier amounts expected, including snow across the north. Temperatures will waffle around over the next 10 days, but trend colder thereafter.
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 7,500 contracts of SRW Wheat; sellers of 9,000 corn, sellers of 2,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 Soymeal, and; net sellers of 4,500 lots of Soyoil.
- SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 184,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2022/23 marketing year that began Sept. 1, 2022.
- WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have purchased durum wheat in an international tender which closed on Wednesday
- WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 80,570 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender that closed on Thursday.
- WHEAT TENDER: Saudi Arabia’s main state wheat buying agency issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 480,000 tonnes of wheat.
- BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued a new international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
- CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) has issued a tender to purchase 52,000 to 69,000 tonnes of corn sourced from optional worldwide origins
- VEGETABLE OILS TENDER: A Tunisian state agency issued an international tender to purchase up to 9,000 tonnes of vegetable oils, European traders said. Either crude degummed soyoil or crude degummed rapeseed oil is sought. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is March 9. The oils can be sourced from optional origins.
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country
The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending March 2, according to data on the USDA’s website.
- Mexico bought 10.7k tons of the 22.1k tons of pork sold in the week
- Japan led in beef purchases
Argentine Soybean, Corn Estimates March 9: Exchange
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.
- 2022-23 soybean production cut to 29m tons from 33.5m tons
- Corn production cut to 37.5m tons
- The following table compares most current data to previous week and last year’s crop:
Argentina Soy Output to Plunge to Lowest Since 2002 on Drought
Soybean production in Argentina is set to be just 29m metric tons this year, a 13% drop from last week’s estimate of 33.5m tons, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in a report.
- NOTE: That would be the lowest since 2002 (29.9m), according to data on the exchange’s website
- Plants are yielding as much as 50% less than normal amid a severe drought and heat waves
- There’s no rain forecast that would halt deterioration
- NOTE: Bourse weather maps in a separate report show no more than than 25mm (1 inch) of rain through March 15 in the key farming region
- Corn forecast cut by 8.5% to 37.5m tons
Brazil lender sees drought hampering soy outlook, pegs harvest at 147 mln T
Sicredi, Brazil’s second-largest farmer lender, said grain growers in the country will harvest 147 million tonnes of soybeans in the 2022/2023 cycle, as a drought in the nation’s south will spoil some of the crop.
Sicredi chief economist Andre de Nunes in an interview on Thursday said Brazil’s southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul will harvest 12 million tonnes, less than the 15.2 million tonnes expected by the government’s food supply and statistics agency Conab.
US Pushback Against Mexico Corn Policies Likely to Work: Eurasia
“While lengthy negotiations are on the horizon, an amicable settlement of the issue is likely in the coming months,” Eurasia Group analysts led by Matias Gomez Leautaud wrote in a note.
- Lopez Obrador is likely to agree to water down his corn decree so that it’s made useless: Eurasia
- Lopez Obrador will pursue a confrontational stance as he is reluctant to offer signs of succumbing to US pressure: Eurasia
- Still, Lopez Obrador prefers avoiding USMCA arbitration panels given the importance of regional integration for Mexico’s growth prospects: Eurasia
Malaysia Feb. Palm Oil Stocks 2.12m Tons: MPOB
Malaysia’s palm oil stocks was 2.12m tons in February, according to Malaysian Palm Oil Board.
- Palm oil production was 1.25m tons
- Palm oil exports were 1.11m tons
Russia Says Geneva Grain Deal Talks to Be March 13: Tass
Russian delegation will take part in Ukraine grain deal consultations, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova says, according to Tass.
- She says the Russian delegation will meet with two high-ranking representatives of the UN
- NOTE: Earlier, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the Russian side still had many questions about implementing the grain deal, while Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called the talks complex. His comments came one day after UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv
China Buys More Local Soybeans to Support Farmer Incomes
- Government seeks to support prices and spur plantings
- Overall aim is to reduce reliance on foreign supplies
China is stockpiling locally grown soybeans to boost farmer incomes and encourage them to plant more of the oilseed, part of President Xi Jinping’s push to increase output of food crops and cut dependency on imports.
The state stockpiling company, known as Sinograin, is stepping up purchases to bolster prices after they dropped sharply in some of the main northeastern growing areas, the agriculture ministry said. Prices fell because of a larger domestic crop, weak demand and the impact of Covid, it said.
China is the largest consumer of soybeans, which are processed into food and livestock feed, and relies on foreign supplies for more than 80% of its needs. The country accounts for almost two-thirds of global imports, mostly from Brazil and the US. It’s also the top importer of corn and a key wheat buyer.
Food security is a top priority, with Xi’s government seeking to maintain self-sufficiency in rice and wheat, and pledging to raise oilseed production. The country needs to keep grain area stable, promote oilseed crops, and make a new effort to boost grain production capacity, Premier Li Keqiang said his work report to the National People’s Congress on March 5.
The country suffers from limited availability of farmland, and it’s hard to increase production. The northeast is an important area for soybean and corn output, and planting a larger area to soybeans can curb the acreage for corn.
Still, the drive to increase soybean output was successful for the last harvest, with production surging more than 20% from a year earlier. Planting for the next one takes place in April and May in the main northeast producing region.
Putin, El-Sisi Discuss Agricultural Exports, Energy: Kremlin
Russia President Vladimir Putin and his Egyptian counterpart Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi spoke by phone on Thursday, discussing agricultural exports from Russia to Egypt, as well as joint projects in energy and industrial sectors, according to emailed statement from Kremlin.
Putin talked to El-Sisi about Russian position on grain-corridor deal that links Ukrainian grain exports with Russian food and fertilizer exports
US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Decline: USDA
Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 403k tons in the week ending March 4 from 412k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.
- Barge shipments of corn little changed from the previous week
- Soybean shipments down 6% w/w
- St. Louis barge rates were $14.08 per short ton, a decline of $0.16 from the previous week
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.