Global Ag News for June 7.23

TOP HEADLINES

US Agriculture Sentiment Weakens in May: Purdue Univ.

The Purdue University/CME Group’s agricultural sentiment index fell to 104 points in May from 123 in April, according to a survey of 400 agricultural producers.

• Current conditions component declined by 13 points from April
• Future expectations down by 22 points

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1/2 in SRW, down 2 1/2 in HRW, up 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans up 3 1/2; Soymeal up $1.70; Soyoil up 0.07.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 12 in SRW, up 7 1/2 in HRW, up 6 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1/2; Soybeans up 5 3/4; Soymeal up $1.10; Soyoil up 1.57.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 33 in SRW, up 27 1/4 in HRW, up 37 in HRS; Corn is up 14 3/4; Soybeans up 57; Soymeal up $5.00; Soyoil up 4.79.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 20.3% in SRW, down 7.7% in HRW, down 13.3% in HRS; Corn is down 10.2%; Soybeans down 10.6%; Soymeal down 16.6%; Soyoil down 20.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 23) Soybeans up 52 yuan; Soymeal down 19; Soyoil up 24; Palm oil down 20; Corn down 7 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 24 ringgit (+0.72%) at 3340.

There were changes in registrations (-32 Soymeal). Registration total: 2,389 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 1,114 Soyoil; 11 Soymeal; 97 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 6 were: SRW Wheat up 5,562 contracts, HRW Wheat down 642, Corn down 1,068, Soybeans up 8,384, Soymeal up 1,869, Soyoil down 971.

Northern Plains: Periods of showers should continue in the Northern Plains all week long, though the coverage may not be totally widespread. A front will move through Friday into Saturday with scattered showers but clear the region out a bit and bring some briefly cooler temperatures through. Most areas should get a drink, however, favorable for developing crops. The pattern favors more systems moving through next week.

Central/Southern Plains: Periods of showers will continue to develop across the Central and Southern Plains through the weekend, favoring additional drought reduction, though coverage isn’t expected to be overly widespread most days. A front will move through over the weekend and tend to shut down the daily shower and thunderstorm chances. But systems will continue to move through, which will still provide chances for additional rain.

Midwest: A front is dropping south through the Midwest over the next few days, which will bring in lower temperatures and some isolated showers mainly for western areas. Another front will move through this weekend with more scattered showers across the region, though not all areas will be hit. Still, it should be the best chances for widespread precipitation eastern areas have had in weeks. The pattern will favor more systems moving through starting next week, which may be more favorable for the drier areas of the region.

Delta: Isolated showers developed in the Delta on Monday and will continue through most of the week, which will help stave off the drop in soil moisture that has been occurring. A front will move through this weekend with better chances for rain, but the pattern won’t be favorable for soil moisture improvements afterward, though systems may move through more frequently. There is growing concern for dryness in the area.

Canadian Prairies: Scattered showers will remain in the Canadian Prairies for the next two weeks, as fronts move through with more regularity. Showers may or may not be widespread. Even though fronts and showers will be moving through, temperatures will remain above normal, which is starting to be a concern for areas that are drier.

Black Sea: Though soil moisture is mostly favorable across the Black Sea region, some additional showers would be welcome, especially in the east. Showers will be limited this week but have already hit the drier east. Shower potential is forecast to increase over the weekend, and possibly next week if an upper low can develop in the region.

 The player sheet for 6/6 had funds: net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 6,000 corn, buyers of 2,500 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 6,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) is believed to have bought around 55,000 tonnes of Russian wheat in an international tender, traders said. GASC did not make an official announcement of the purchase.
• SOYBEAN PURCHASE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 165,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to Spain for shipment in the 2022/23 marketing year.
• SOYMEAL TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB has issued an international tender to purchase up to 35,000 tonnes of soymeal animal feed sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 86,922 tonnes of food-quality wheat from Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close on June 8.
• SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued an international tender to purchase about 120,000 tonnes of soymeal to be sourced from Brazil.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 62,200 tonnes of rice.

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending June 2 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen higher than last week at 1.017m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 22.404m bbl vs 22.332m a week ago
• Would be the second increase after five consecutive w/w declines

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 13.11 Million Tns In June Versus 9.946 Million Tns In Same Month A Year Ago- Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 13.11 MILLION TNS IN JUNE VERSUS 9.946 MILLION TNS IN SAME MONTH A YEAR AGO- ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.66 TNS IN JUNE VERSUS 1.503 MILLION TNS IN SAME MONTH A YEAR AGO- ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.27 MILLION TNS IN JUNE VERSUS 2.16 MILLION TNS IN SAME MONTH A YEAR AGO- ANEC

China May soybean imports hit record 12 million metric tons

• May arrivals are highest ever for a month
• Strict customs inspections in April reduced imports
• June arrivals could be even higher – trader

China imported a record 12.02 million metric tons of soybeans in May, up 24% from a year ago, customs data showed, as cargoes delayed during recent strict inspections were finally unloaded at ports.

The imports by the world’s top soybean buyer were up from April’s 7.26 million metric tons, which were far short of expected arrivals.

Harvesting of the largest ever crop in China’s top supplier Brazil was delayed this year, pushing back arrivals of soybean cargoes, while stricter customs procedures at Chinese ports significantly slowed imports in April.

The delays led to low stocks of soybeans, driving up the price of soymeal, a protein-rich ingredient used in animal feed.

Last month’s large arrivals of beans have, however, brought down prices, with spot soymeal sold in crushing hub Rizhao down almost 20% during May to 3,670 yuan ($515.53) a metric ton. JCI-SBM-RIZH

The previous record for a month was 11.2 million metric tons in June 2020.

Arrivals in June could be even larger at about 13 million metric tons, said a Beijing-based soybean trader, based on the large shipments in April.

Chinese crushers snapped up cheap Brazilian soybeans earlier in the year, as the large crop weighed down futures prices.

Low hog prices in China in recent months are, however, hurting demand for soymeal, as are large volumes of cheap wheat that are increasingly available for feedmakers.

Swapping wheat for corn in animal feed can lower demand for soymeal because it has a higher protein content than corn.

Total soy arrivals in the first five months of the year reached 42.31 million metric tons, up 11.2% year-on-year, the General Administration of Customs data showed

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Rise 11.4% Y/y in Season Through June 4

The European Union’s soft-wheat exports in the season that began July 1 reached 28.9m tons as of June 4, compared with 25.9m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations include Morocco (4.56m tons), Algeria (4.02m tons) and Nigeria (2.61m tons)
• EU barley exports were 6m tons, compared with 6.8m tons
• Corn imports stand at6m tons, against 15.3m tons

Ukraine grain exports at 45.6 mln T so far in 2022/23 -ministry

Ukraine grain exports stood at 45.6 million tonnes so far the 2022/23 July-June season, down from 47.2 million tonnes in the same period in 2021/22, the agriculture ministry said on Tuesday.

The ministry’s data show the volume included 15.6 million tonnes of wheat, 27.1 million tonnes of corn and 2.7 million tonnes of barley.

Brazil Farmers Get $1.55 Billion in Extra Government Funding

Total funding of 7.6 billion reais will cover farmers’ expenses in the coming days ahead of announcement on government’s farming credit program for 2023-24 season, Agriculture Ministry says Tuesday in statement.

• A total 3.6 billion reais will cover farmer requests from 2022-23 program
• The rest is provided to farmers on dollar terms by the national development bank BNDES to fund investments in warehouses, irrigation, pasture recovery, renewable energy projects and improving environmental standards
• Upcoming program will be focused on low-carbon agriculture: ministry

India Weather Office Sees Conditions Favorable for Monsoon Onset

Conditions are becoming favorable for the onset of monsoon over southern Indian state of Kerala in 48 hours, according to the India Meteorological Department.

• Monsoon may advance into some parts of Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and entire Lakshadweep, Maldives and parts of northeastern states during the same period, a senior scientist at IMD R.K. Jenamani said in a text message
• NOTE: The monsoon was stalled over Bay of Bengal on June 1 and over Arabian Sea on June 2 after covering Andaman and Nicobar Islands

US EPA to remove proposed EV volumes from biofuel blending rule – sources

The Biden administration will abandon a scheme to include the electric vehicle industry in the nation’s biofuel blending program and will remove nearly 2 billion credits the ambitious expansion was expected to generate in a final rule set to be released later this month, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

The move pushes the administration further away from allowing electric vehicles to generate lucrative credits under the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard, which companies such as Tesla Inc have pushed for over the last two years. The EV program would have been a boost to President Joe Biden’s goal of electrifying the motor vehicle industry to fight climate change.

The White House declined to comment, and the Environmental Protection Agency, which administers the RFS, did not respond to requests for comment. The White House is currently reviewing a final rule on biofuel blending mandates for the years 2023, 2024 and 2025.

 

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