Global Ag News for June 2.23
Ukraine says Russia has blocked Black Sea grain export deal again
Ukraine’s ministry of renovation and infrastructure said on Thursday the U.N.-brokered Black Sea grain export deal had been halted again because Russia had blocked registration of ships to all Ukrainian ports.
“The Joint Coordination Centre in Istanbul has announced that it is impossible to draw up an inspection plan for June 1 due to another unjustified refusal of the Russian delegation to register the incoming fleet for participation in the Initiative,” the ministry said on Facebook.
Russia did not immediately comment on the status of the wartime initiative, intended to provide safe Black Sea grain exports.
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are up 2 1/2 in SRW, down 2 1/4 in HRW, up 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 5; Soybeans up 1 1/2; Soymeal down $1.00; Soyoil up 0.40.
For the week so far wheat prices are down 2 1/2 in SRW, down 18 1/4 in HRW, down 28 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 16 3/4; Soybeans down 6 1/4; Soymeal down $1.80; Soyoil down 0.56.
For the month to date wheat prices are up 19 in SRW, up 9 3/4 in HRW, up 9 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 6 1/2; Soybeans up 31 1/4; Soymeal up $7.00; Soyoil up 2.06.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 22.5% in SRW, down 9.8% in HRW, down 15.9% in HRS; Corn is down 13.4%; Soybeans down 12.4%; Soymeal down 16.3%; Soyoil down 24.4%.
Chinese Ag futures (JUL 23) Soybeans down 8 yuan; Soymeal down 1; Soyoil up 112; Palm oil up 84; Corn up 11 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 102 ringgit (+3.11%) at 3381.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 2,389 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 1,114 Soyoil; 47 Soymeal; 97 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 1 were: SRW Wheat up 958 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,752, Corn down 362, Soybeans down 9,436, Soymeal up 78, Soyoil down 7,080.
Northern Plains: Widespread showers continue throughout the weekend. The coverage and intensity may decrease next week, but most areas are seeing at least some rainfall to keep crop conditions favorable.
Central/Southern Plains: Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop in clusters going through most of next week, though not all areas are getting hit with showers. Those that do are under threat of flooding, especially the Texas Panhandle. If eastern areas continue to miss out, then drought may worsen there. But overall, drought reduction is occurring in the region.
Midwest: Temperatures continue to be above-normal for the next several days while chances for showers are fairly limited. Showers will be around throughout the week though, and will help to stave off dryness where they hit. A couple of fronts will go through next week with chances for showers, though models are uncertain as to the extent of these showers. Areas that are not hit could see drought developing or increasing, especially in eastern areas. There is some concern over young plants, but drought is not deep or forecast to spread to too many areas just yet.
Delta: Soil moisture has been dropping, though is still in fair condition across most of the region. Showers will continue to be limited for the next week and may be a concern if the drier pattern continues deeper into June.
Canadian Prairies: Scattered showers have been very sporadic on where they have been hitting over the last week, but continue in the region going through next week. Coverage of showers will be different each day. Temperatures remain above normal, but not extremely so.
Argentina: More showers are expected to come in waves Friday into next week, increasing soil moisture in the country’s primary growing areas and favoring winter wheat establishment.
The player sheet for 6/1 had funds: net buyers of 6,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 6,000 corn, buyers of 9,500 soybeans, buyers of 3,500 soymeal, and buyers of 5,000 soyoil.
- FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) bought about 64,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat to be sourced from optional worldwide origins in an international tender on Thursday
- HARD MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Saudi Arabia’s General Food Security Authority (GFSA) on Thursday issued an international tender to buy 480,000 tonnes of hard milling wheat for delivery in September and October 2023. The deadline for submission of price offers is June 2, the agency said. Traders said results are expected on June 5.
- RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 62,200 tonnes of rice.
- VEGETABLE OILS TENDER DEADLINE EXTENDED: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), has moved its international vegetable oils tender to June 6. Previously, GASC had set the international purchasing tender deadline for offers on June 1. GASC said it has not changed tender requirements and is still seeking vegetable oils for arrival July 11-25 and traders should submit bids for payment at sight. GASC did not provide a reason for the change.
- RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 43,500 tonnes of rice.
US Soybean Crushings at 187M Bushels in April: USDA
USDA releases monthly oilseed report on website.
- Crushing 3.4% higher than same period last year
- Crude oil production 4.3% higher than same period last year
- Crude and once-refined oil stocks up 4.8% y/y
GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report
Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of five analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Friday for week ending May 25.
- Corn est. range -100k – 500k tons, with avg of 203k
- Soybean est. range 50k – 675k tons, with avg of 291k
Argentine Soybean, Corn Estimates June 1: Exchange
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.
- 2022-23 soybean and corn production estimates both maintained
- 2023-24 wheat planting area est. at 6.3m ha vs 6.1m ha in the previous season
Argentina Wheat Planting Delayed on Parched Farms: Exchange
Wheat planting trails the same stage last season by 7.6 percentage points after an intense drought that’s left fields too dry to sow, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in a weekly report.
- Wheat planting 6.3% complete
- Rains that eventually fell in late May are allowing farmers to start seeding in central-eastern areas
- But western areas are still dry, which will curb planting plans
- Soy and corn production estimates unchanged as the harvests progress
2023-24 World Wheat Production Seen Down 3% From 2022: FAO-AMIS
World wheat production in 2023-24 season is seen at 776.7m tons, according to an Agricultural Market Information System report.
- That would be a 3% fall from 2022 record; bulk of decline expected in Australia and Russia
- Wheat stockpiles in 2023-24 forecast at 308.5m tons, down from 310.7m tons estimated for 2022-23
- Corn production in 2023-24 forecast at 1,212m tons, up from 1,163.1m-ton estimate for 2022-23
- 2023-24 corn stocks forecast at 302.1m tons, compared to 2022-23 estimate of 288.8m tons
- Soy production in 2023-24 estimated at 405.9m tons, up from 2022-23 estimate of 371.2m tons
- Stocks forecast at 55.2m tons, up from 2022-23 estimate of 44.6m tons
Ukraine’s Black Sea Crop Exports Rise 88% in Week to May 28
The volume of crops departing Ukrainian ports under the Black Sea Grain Initiative totaled about 222,471 in the week to May 28, according to data posted by the Joint Coordination Centre.
- That compares with about 118,334 tons the prior week
- NOTE: The grain deal was extended in mid May for two-months; the shipping corridor nearly emptied in the days before the renewal
- TOTAL TONNAGE: More than 30.6m tons of crops have been shipped since the initiative was established last July
Brazil 2022/23 total corn crop seen at 133.75 mln tns – StoneX
- BRAZIL 2022/2023 TOTAL CORN CROP SEEN AT 133.75 MILLION TNS VERSUS 131.59 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – STONEX
- BRAZIL 2022/2023 SECOND CORN CROP SEEN AT 102.9 MILLION TNS VERSUS 100.8 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – STONEX
Brazil May Agriculture, Mining Exports by Volume: MDIC
Following is a summary of key Brazilian agriculture and mining exports by volume, from the Brazilian Trade Ministry.
- Soybean exports rose 47% in May from a year ago
- Soy meal exports rose 38% y/y
- Iron ore exports up 38% y/y
UN FAO Sees Global Cereal Stocks Rising to Record in 2023-24
Global cereal stocks could rise 1.7% above their opening levels to a record 873m tons in 2023-24, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization said in a report.
- Increase in corn stocks expected to be largest; wheat stocks expected to fall below opening levels
- World cereal production in 2023 seen at 2,813m tons due to increase in corn production
- Cereal utilization in 2023-24 seen up 0.9% at 2,803m tons due to growth in utilization of coarse grains
- Cereal stocks at end of 2023 season expected to rise 0.2% above opening levels
US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Decline: USDA
Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 804k tons in the week ending May 27 from 506k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.
- Barge shipments of corn rose 52% from the previous week
- Soybean shipments up 109% w/w
- St. Louis barge rates were $8.10 per short ton, a decline of $0.33 from the previous week
US Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending May 30: USDA
The following shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending May 30, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.
- Corn crops experiencing moderate to intense drought jumped by 8 percentage points from the previous week to 34%
- At this time last year, 19% of corn crops were in drought
- Soybean crops in drought also rose by 8 points
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