Global Ag News for June 14.24

TOP HEADLINES

La Nina weather 65% likely to develop in July-Sept, says US forecaster

There is a 65% chance of the La Nina weather pattern, characterized by cold temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, developing during July-September, a U.S. government forecaster said on Thursday.

This shift from the current neutral phase between La Nina and El Nina weather patterns is expected to persist into the northern hemisphere winter of 2024-25, with an 85% chance during November-January, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its monthly forecast.

The cycle between El Nino, La Nina, and a neutral phase typically lasts two to seven years and can spawn wildfires, tropical cyclones, floods, and prolonged droughts, impacting farmers worldwide.

Geographically concentrated crops are more susceptible to price hikes during poor weather conditions. This makes global wheat and corn prices less likely to be affected by La Nina or El Nino, said Bill Weatherburn, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics.

El Nino is a natural warming of eastern and central Pacific Ocean surface temperatures, while La Nina is characterized by colder temperatures in the equatorial Pacific region.

“La Nina correlates with warm and dry weather across N. America (Midwest U.S.), East Asia (China) and parts of South America (Argentina and parts of Brazil) during the growing season,” Maxar meteorologist Chris Hyde said.

However, for crops spanning South Africa (maize), South and Southeast Asia (India’s sugarcane and wheat), and Australia, La Nina is supportive due to high rainfall and can contribute to crops performing well as a result, aside from flooding risks, Isaac Hankes, senior weather analyst at London Stock Exchange Group, said.

Weather experts note that these correlations are influenced by the timing and intensity of La Nina.

Other agencies, such as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and Japan’s weather bureau also noted an end to the El Nino phenomenon and forecast La Nina to form this year.

For India, the shift from El Nino to La Nina likely brings a wetter monsoon, but another phenomenon called the IOD (Indian Oscillation Dipole) can influence rainfall intensity, AccuWeather’s lead international forecaster Jason Nicholls said.

An IOD-positive event leads to a wetter summer monsoon, while a negative IOD event leads to less moisture and drier conditions, Nicholls added.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 6 1/2 in SRW, down 6 1/4 in HRW, down 2 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/4; Soybeans down 6 1/4; Soymeal down $2.10; Soyoil down 0.25.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 14 1/4 in SRW, down 37 3/4 in HRW, down 29 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 6 1/2; Soybeans down 3 3/4; Soymeal down $0.40; Soyoil down 0.32.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 65 in SRW, down 82 in HRW, down 75 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 6 3/4; Soybeans down 30 1/2; Soymeal down $4.30; Soyoil down 2.06.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 2.3% in SRW, down 1.9% in HRW, down 8.2% in HRS; Corn is down 3.2%; Soybeans down 8.5%; Soymeal down 4.6%; Soyoil down 9.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 24) Soybeans down 7 yuan; Soymeal down 13; Soyoil down 48; Palm oil down 48; Corn up 1 — Malaysian Palm is up 11.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 11 ringgit (+0.28%) at 3947.

There were changes in registrations (-64 Soybeans). Registration total: 1,479 SRW Wheat contracts; 39 Oats; 747 Corn; 405 Soybeans; 2,589 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 13 were: SRW Wheat up 3,672 contracts, HRW Wheat up 6,233, Corn up 9,348, Soybeans up 5,730, Soymeal up 17,226, Soyoil up 2,831.

Northern Plains: A large system will move into the region on Friday and its front will stall out in or near the region, waffling around all of next week. That will bring rounds of heavy rain and severe storms through next week, which may produce some flooding in some parts of the region.

Central/Southern Plains: A large system will push a front into the region on Friday and Saturday and stall, with widespread precipitation forecast over the weekend and through next week, especially north. Overall, the rainfall should be mostly helpful for developing corn and soybeans but could be a hindrance for maturing and harvesting wheat at times. The rainfall will be needed with warmer temperatures returning to the area, which will be very hot when showers and clouds are not occurring beginning this weekend.

Midwest: A system moved across the region Thursday, bringing some rainfall and potential severe weather. The pattern gets more active this weekend for western areas, with a front moving into and stalling there through much of next week. Eastern areas are less likely to see rainfall but could see some as models disagree. Temperatures will waffle with the system moving through, but will be much more consistently hot starting Sunday, which could start to stress areas that do not receive rain, particularly across the east.

Delta: Drier weather is likely through Saturday, but we may see moisture coming from the Gulf of Mexico start to produce showers and thunderstorms in the region starting Sunday. Any rainfall right now looks to be light. Temperatures will start to rise again by the end of the week, likely being hot and stressful, especially if showers do not develop.

Canadian Prairies: A larger system moves in on Friday and brings more widespread precipitation through the region through the weekend. The storm track will be near or through the region for next week, with multiple disturbances being possible to bring showers through, resulting in some areas of heavy rain. Despite some issues with wetness, especially in the east, seeding is almost complete, and crops have plenty of soil moisture for early growth in most areas.

The player sheet for 6/13 had funds: net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 6,500 corn, buyers of 6,500 soybeans, buyers of 5,500 soymeal, and buyers of 5,000 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 120,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery to “unknown” destinations in the 2023/24 marketing year.
• VEGETABLE OIL PURCHASE: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities, bought 22,500 metric tons of vegetable oils in an international tender on Thursday, traders and GASC told Reuters.
• FOOD WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 109,126 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed on Thursday.
• CORN PURCHASE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from Brazil in an international tender on Thursday
• WHEAT PURCHASE: The Lebanese government is believed to have purchased about 63,000 metric tons of wheat in a tender all expected to be sourced from Ukraine, European traders said on Thursday.
• SOYMEAL PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased an estimated 60,000 metric tons of soymeal expected to be sourced from either South America or the United States in an international tender on Thursday.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

TODAY

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending June 6, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 14k tons of the 30.1k tons of pork sold in the week
• South Korea led in beef purchases

 

NOPA May US soybean crush seen at 178.352 million bushels

The U.S. soy processing pace increased in May from a seven-month low a month earlier as some crush plants resumed operations after seasonal downtime for maintenance and repairs and as margins improved, analysts said ahead of a National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) monthly report on Monday.

NOPA members, who handle 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, were projected to have crushed 178.352 million bushels last month, according to 11 analysts polled by Reuters.

If realized, that would be up 5.3% from an April crush of 169.436 million bushels and up 0.2% from the 177.915 million bushels in May 2023. It would also be the largest May crush on record, topping the prior mark set last year.

U.S. soy processors have built new plants and expanded existing facilities over the past several years to capitalize on rising vegetable oil demand from renewable fuels makers. Four more projects are slated to start up later this year.

Lower soybean prices and firmer soymeal values have propped up margins in recent weeks after slowing soyoil demand, due to rising imports of cheaper biofuel feedstocks like used cooking oil, had eroded plant profitability earlier this year, analysts said.

May crush estimates ranged from 171.350 million to 187.643 million bushels, with a median of 178.000 million bushels.

The NOPA report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CDT (1600 GMT) on Monday.

Soyoil supplies held by NOPA members as of May 31 were forecast at 1.775 billion lbs, based on estimates from eight analysts.

That would be down 3.1% from 1.832 billion at the end of April and down 5.2% from the 1.872 billion lbs at the end of May last year.

Oil stocks estimates ranged from 1.675 billion to 1.950 billion lbs, with a median of 1.749 billion lbs.

 

Brazil 2023-24 Corn Crop Seen at 114.1M Tons: Conab

Output est. raised from 111.6m tons, Brazil’s national supply co. says in its monthly report.

• Analysts in a Bloomberg survey were expecting 112.6m tons
• Yield seen higher at 5,478 kg/ha vs 5,414 kg/ha last month
• Area planted raised to 20.838m ha vs 20.618m ha last month
• Soybean production est. lowered to 147.4m tons vs 147.7m tons

 

Argentine Soy, Corn, Wheat Estimates June 13: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• Corn and soybean production estimates maintained
• Corn harvesting advanced to 40% complete, while soybeans are 96% harvested

 

Ukraine increases 2024 grain harvest forecast by 6.9% to 56 mln T

Ukrainian agriculture ministry has increased its forecast for the country’s 2024 grain harvest to 56 million metric tons from the previous estimate of 52.4 million tons, acting minister Taras Vysotskiy said on Friday.

The harvest could include 21 million tons of wheat, 28.5 million tons of corn and 5 million tons of barley, Vysotskiy said in a statement.

He said Ukraine’s 2024/25 July-June grain exports were seen at 43 million tons, including 15 million tons of wheat and 25 million tons of corn.

 

India Has No Current Plan to Alter Wheat Import Tax, Govt Says

The government has no proposal at present to alter the wheat import duty, according to statement by the food ministry.

• India imposes a tax of 40% on overseas wheat purchases
• NOTE: World Crop Trade Eyes India as New Government May Relax Curbs
• The department is keeping a close watch on wheat prices and “in addition, suitable interventions, as warranted shall be undertaken to ensure that there is no hoarding by unscrupulous elements and the price remains stable”
• NOTE: India 2023-24 Wheat Output Seen Rising to 112.9M Tons: Ministry
• State-run Food Corp. of India has bought about 26.6 million tons as of June 11
• The government will have enough reserves to carry out open market sales of wheat as and when needed even after meeting the requirement of 18.4 million tons for the free food program and other welfare initiatives
• State stockpiles at no point of time dipped below the quarterly buffer stock norms

 

Crop Forecasts Rise for Top Australian Grain State on Rain Boost

Recent rainfall has eased concerns that Western Australia will produce a below-average grains crop, with growers in the top producing state expected to plant more wheat than was predicted a month prior, according to a monthly industry report.

• The Grains Industry of Western Australia increased its estimate for planted wheat in 2024 to 5 million hectares, compared with a May forecast of 4.7 million hectares, as rain germinated dry-sown crops and prompted growers to sow more paddocks
• The projection for overall planted grains was also raised to about 8.7 million hectares, from 8.5 million hectares
  • “Crops are bouncing out of the ground and making up time in growth stage,” the report said
• Estimated area of barley and canola remained relatively unchanged at around 1.5 million hectares and 1.7 million hectares respectively

 

China Grains Output Faces Drought Threat That May Stoke Imports

• Wheat, corn production forecast to fall by consultancy BOABC
• Government expects bumper harvest in 2024-25 marketing year

Drought is threatening China’s grains output, which may force it to re-enter the global market after staying away from major purchases in recent months due to oversupply and sluggish consumption.

Wheat and corn production in the new season is forecast to fall, as drought in parts of northern China — a key grains hub — has reduced crop yields and delayed planting, according to BOABC, a Beijing-based agriculture consultancy.

Any significant drop in grain production in China, the world’s top consumer, could push the country to scoop up purchases from the global market, reversing a recent trend where the nation has been almost dormant with corn and wheat buying.

Farmers lay drip irrigation pipes in a field to water newly sown corn in Daqu village, China’s Shandong province on June 12.

While the government still expects a bumper harvest of wheat and is predicting higher corn output in the new year, recent drought conditions have stoked concerns. The country’s agriculture ministry in recent days sent delegations to top grains producers, including in Henan and Shandong provinces, to deal with drought.

Wheat output in China in the marketing year through June 2025 is forecast to fall 1.24% to 134 million tons, as dry weather and high temperatures hurt yields of the staple grain in some areas of northern China, BOABC said this week.

Drought also delayed planting of corn in parts of the region, and is expected to continue to bake crops, contributing to the fall of production of the yellow grain in the marketing year through October 2025 by 2.26% to 282 million tons, it said.

Less rainfall since May and lasting high temperatures have caused drought in parts of HuangHuaiHai, a major grains production area in northern China, and affected planting of summer grains, the agriculture ministry said late Thursday.

It warned drought conditions might worsen as high temperatures would continue in the next 10 days across Shandong, Henan, and Hebei, which are major producers of both wheat and corn.

China scoured the global market for wheat last season, after heavy rains damaged crops in top producer Henan, and made a significant amount of the harvest only suitable for feed use. China-based independent consultancies flagged the damage before government data was released that showed a fall in wheat output.

 

US Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending June 11: USDA

The following shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending June 11, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• Corn area experiencing moderate to intense drought fell to 2% vs 3% in the previous week
  • Has dropped 22 percentage points since early April
• Soybean area in drought declined by a percentage points to 1%

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 366k tons in the week ending June 8 from 604k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 40% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 36% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $8.86 per short ton, an increase of $0.20 from the previous week

 

 

 

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