Global Ag News For June 13.2025

TOP HEADLINES

 

Israel Attacks Iran’s Nuclear Sites in Major Escalation

Summary by Bloomberg AI

• Israel launched airstrikes across Iran, targeting nuclear facilities and killing senior military commanders, in a major escalation that could spark a broad war in the Middle East.
• The attacks killed the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the military’s chief of staff, and Iran vowed to retaliate against Israel and possibly US assets in the Middle East.
• The strikes have raised concerns about a broader regional conflict and have already affected the global economy, with oil prices surging and investors seeking safe-haven assets.

Israel launched airstrikes across Iran on Friday morning, targeting nuclear facilities and killing senior military commanders in a major escalation that could spark a broad war in the Middle East.

Explosions were heard across Tehran, Natanz — home to a key atomic site — and other cities, according to local and social media. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel — which used 200 air force planes and said it hit around 100 targets — had “struck at the heart of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program.”

The head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, and the military’s chief of staff, Mohammad Bagheri, were both killed, according to Iranian media. At least two other senior IRGC members also died.

The United Nations’ atomic watchdog said there were no indications of increased radiation levels at Iran’s main uranium-enrichment site of Natanz, an early sign that the strikes have not penetrated the containment layers protecting the Islamic Republic’s nuclear stockpile.

Still, Israel pledged more attacks, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying they “will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat.”

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 5 1/2 in SRW, up 4 1/2 in HRW, up 3 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans up 2 1/2; Soymeal down $1.90; Soyoil up 0.89.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 22 3/4 in SRW, down 20 1/2 in HRW, down 9 in HRS; Corn is down 9 1/2; Soybeans down 7 1/4; Soymeal down $5.60; Soyoil up 0.92.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 2 in SRW, down 5 in HRW, down 2 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/4; Soybeans up 3; Soymeal down $4.50; Soyoil up 1.43.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 3.5% in SRW, down 5.6% in HRW, up 4.7% in HRS; Corn is down 4.8%; Soybeans up 4.9%; Soymeal down 4.9%; Soyoil up 22.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans up 29 yuan; Soymeal up 2; Soyoil up 68; Palm oil up 122; Corn down 4 — Malaysian Palm is up 83.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 83 ringgit (+2.16%) at 3922.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 193 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 78 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 823 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 12 were: SRW Wheat down 4,954 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,958, Corn down 1,061, Soybeans down 7,987, Soymeal down 452, Soyoil up 2,324.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 12 JUNE 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Warmth is likely to return to most U.S. spring crop regions during the 6-15 day forecast, though major anomalies are currently not expected
• SOUTH AMERICA: Near or below normal temperatures are expected in the Pampas region of Argentina during the next 10 days, with regional wet weather in the northeast
• BLACK SEA: Dry conditions are expected in Ukraine and Turkey during the next 10 days, while wet weather between 10-40 mm above normal is likely in most Russian croplands in the Black Sea region
• EAST ASIA: Warmth will persist across the majority of China during the next two weeks

 

DOMINANT WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED IN EUROPE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE

What to Watch:

• Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions in Europe
• Shifting pattern in the Black Sea region

 

Northern Plains: Through the weekend into early next week, multiple rounds of rain are expected to move through the region, keeping the pattern on the wetter side. Rainfall will help emerging spring wheat, but parts of Montana could use more rainfall to help improve wheat ratings. Recent rainfall in the Dakotas has been beneficial for range land and developing corn and soybeans.

Central/Southern Plains: Heavy rain and flooding remain a threat in East Texas on Thursday with a large squall line moving through. Wheat harvest is off to a slow start in the Southern Plains with overly wet conditions. The Central Plains are still dealing with widespread drought from northern Kansas into Nebraska, and the developing corn, soybeans, and maturing wheat could use more rain but it’s expected to remain spotty into the end of the week. A few systems could provide widespread showers to the Central Plains next week as a few thunderstorm complexes could provide swaths of heavy rain.

Midwest: Southern areas saw a break in rainfall through the mid-week. Heavier rain could tag western areas through Friday before pushing east into the weekend. Overall, the pattern looks active next week as well, favorable for building soil moisture in western areas but unfavorable for those trying to get fieldwork done.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Wet conditions continue across the Delta through the weekend but more rain is not needed. The rainy pattern could continue into next week as well, which doesn’t bode well for those trying to finish cotton planting or start wheat harvest. While the Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, the risk for any tropical systems entering the Gulf of America and impacting the Delta looks minimal into next week.

Canadian Prairies: Multiple disturbances are expected to pass through the Prairies into next week, providing some areas of heavier rain at times. The more active weather pattern is favorable for early growth as well as reducing the risks for wildfires. Temperatures will fluctuate between above and below normal through next week as cold fronts provide brief shots of cooler air.

Brazil: A drier stretch of weather across most of the main growing areas will linger into Friday before a larger system develops late this week into the weekend across southern areas. The potential for heavy rain this weekend threatens the harvest pace but wheat could use more rain for establishment. A parade of systems is possible across southern areas throughout next week as well before potentially trending drier by the end of the week.

Argentina: Corn and soybean harvest will be disrupted across northeast areas for a few days as areas of heavy rain are possible Friday into Saturday with a large system swinging through. Although, newly-planted winter wheat could benefit from the rain. Next week’s rain will again favor northeastern areas while the southwest remains largely dry with temperatures falling below average through the second half of the week. Europe: Spotty showers are tagging eastern Europe while southern areas remain mostly dry. Hot temperatures will develop through the end of the week across central areas which could cause some stress to developing corn in areas that have been recently dry. Through the weekend, scattered showers will tag central areas before high pressure returns for much of next week across the western half of the continent.

 

The player sheet for 6/12 had funds: net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 5,500 corn, sellers of 6,000 soybeans, sellers of 4,000 soymeal, and sellers of 10,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• U.S. WHEAT PURCHASE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association bought an estimated 95,450 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender on Thursday
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 75,000 tons of soft milling wheat.

 

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 95,450 tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the U.S..
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase and import 50,000 tons of milling wheat.

 

 

 

TODAY

NOPA May US soybean crush estimated at 193.519 million bushels

The U.S. soybean crush in May likely reached the highest-ever level for the fifth month of the year, although the daily processing pace slowed from the prior month, analysts said ahead of a National Oilseed Processors Association report due on Monday.

NOPA members, who handle more than 95% of all soybeans processed in the U.S., were estimated to have crushed 193.519 million bushels last month, according to the average of estimates from 11 analysts surveyed by Reuters.

If realized, the total would be up 1.7% from the 190.226 million bushels crushed in April and up 5.4% from the May 2024 crush of 183.625 million bushels.

But the estimated daily processing rate of 6.243 million bushels a day would be down from an average of 6.341 bushels per day a month earlier, according to NOPA data.

U.S. soy crush capacity has swelled in recent years amid rising demand for soyoil from biofuel makers. But crushers have slowed processing rates this spring due to narrow margins and slow farmer sales of soybeans during the planting season, analysts said.

Crush estimates for May ranged from 188.500 million to 195.933 million bushels, with a median of 194.200 million bushels.

The NOPA report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CDT (1600 GMT) on Monday.

Soyoil stocks held by NOPA members as of May 31 were projected to fall to 1.451 billion pounds, based on estimates from seven analysts.

The figure, if realized, would be down 5.0% from stocks totaling 1.527 billion pounds at the end of April and down 15.8% from the 1.724 billion pounds held by NOPA members a year earlier.

Oil stocks estimates ranged from 1.190 billion to 1.550 billion pounds, with a median of 1.482 billion pounds.

 

Brazil’s Conab Raises Corn Outlook to 128.3m Tons for 2024-25

Brazil’s national supply company Conab raised its corn estimate for the 2024-25 season by almost 1.4 million tons, to 128.3 million tons, according to a Thursday report.

• That compares with 126.9m tons expected in May, but is still below the 129.3m tons forecast by analysts
• It could be Brazil’s second-largest corn crop after 131.9m tons harvested in the 2022-23 marketing year, according to Conab’s data
  • NOTE: Harvest of second corn crop, Brazil’s largest, has started in late May
• Less rainfall in May favored second corn crops’ ripening and grains quality, but it could compromise yields in areas planted late if no more rains materialize: Conab
  • Even so, Conab sees yields in all states exceeding last cycle’s
• Conab’s corn estimate remains behind some other consulting firms’ forecasts
  • Agroconsult sees total corn production at 140m tons in 2024-25
  • Safras expects 139m tons
• Soybean output raised by almost 1.3m tons to 169.6m tons, in line with analysts estimates

 

Argentine Soy, Corn, Wheat Estimates June 12: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2024-25 production estimate for soy raised slightly to 50.3m metric tons after rains helped yields
  • Soy harvest advanced to 93.2% vs 88.7% last week
• 2025-26 wheat planting advanced to 38.5% vs 23.6% a week ago
• In a monthly estimates report on Wednesday, the Rosario Board of Trade maintained its 2024-25 outlook for soy and corn at 48.5m each
  • It adjusted its 2025-26 wheat area to 7.1m hectares from 7.2m a month ago and remarked that soil moisture profiles for growing the grain are the best in years

 

China Lowers 2024-25 Cotton Import Forecast on Tariff Tensions

China may import less cotton than estimated earlier because of its trade war with the US, the Asian nation’s agriculture ministry said in a report on Thursday.

• Imports are now seen at 1.2 million tons in 2024-25, about 300,000 tons below last month’s estimate, according to the monthly China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
• The ministry kept its 2025-26 supply and demand predictions for soybeans and corn

 

UK Ethanol Plant Halts Wheat Buying as Risk of US Imports Looms

A top UK ethanol plant will stop wheat purchases as it weighs the possibility of closure, with an agreement to allow tariff-free imports of the biofuel from the US threatening local producers.

However, any decisions on closing down the Vivergo facility will be taken only after June 25, its operator Associated British Foods Plc said in a statement. The company held meetings with the Departments for Transport and Trade earlier this week.

The trade deal with the US, agreed last month, includes the removal of tariffs on 1.4 billion liters (370 million gallons) of ethanol.

A trade group representing the UK ethanol industry had previously warned that ending tariff barriers would spell disaster for domestic biofuel producers. The US is a huge producer of the green fuel and sent some 227 million gallons to the UK in the 2023-24 marketing year, according to the US Grains Council.

The pause on a closure decision “is intended to give space for departments to work up options,” said an ABF spokesperson, “but time is very limited, and we are clear that any further delay will require financial support from the government.”

The Ensus plant in northern England, owned by Suedzucker AG unit CropEnergies, also warned it may be forced to shutter operations.

On Wednesday, a company spokesperson said it was still discussing the future of the facility in Wilton, England.

 

Ukraine completes 2025 spring sowing

Ukraine has almost completed its 2025 spring sowing. The following is detailed data on acreage in hectares and percentages of projected acreage previously reported by the farm ministry.

 

US EPA set to propose biomass-based diesel quotas below industry expectations, sources say

• EPA to propose biomass-based diesel quotas below 5.25 billion gallons, sources say
• Proposal covers 2026 and 2027 blending requirements, sources said
• Industry awaits EPA decision on small refinery exemptions in paragraph 13

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on Friday will propose new biofuel blending requirements for oil refiners for the coming two years that will likely include a lower biomass-based diesel mandate than industry groups had requested, according to four sources familiar with the matter.

The White House has completed its review of the EPA’s plan and returned it to the EPA for further action, according to the website for the Office of Management and Budget. The EPA is expected to announce the proposal on Friday, the sources said.

The oil and biofuel industries, both major lobbying powers in Washington, have highly anticipated the release of the proposal, which will determine the fate of billions of dollars in fuel and tradable credit transactions.

Under the Renewable Fuel Standard, refiners are required to blend massive volumes of biofuels into the nation’s fuel supply or purchase credits, called RINs, from those that do.

As one of the first decisions the current Trump administration makes regarding federal biofuel policy, the proposal will also give insight into whether President Donald Trump will bolster the biofuel industry, which has at times been at odds with oil companies.

The EPA’s proposal is expected to cover both 2026 and 2027, Reuters previously reported.

The biomass-based diesel blending requirements are a major focus of the proposal for industry participants, as some believed previous obligations were too low.

A U.S. and biofuel coalition led by the American Petroleum Institute advocated in recent months that the EPA propose federal mandates for biomass diesel blending for 2026 at 5.25 billion gallons, which would be a significant increase from previous mandates, Reuters previously reported, citing sources.

However, sources told Reuters on Thursday that the EPA was expected to propose biomass-based diesel blending quotas lower than 5.25 billion gallons.

The EPA had set biomass-based diesel mandates for the 2025 compliance year at 3.35 billion gallons.

The coalition, which brought some oil and biofuel groups together in a historically unusual move, had also recommended total federal biofuel blending mandates for 2026 – including corn-based ethanol and advanced biofuels – at 25 billion gallons.

The EPA did not comment on the quota levels.

Republican Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa, a biofuels advocate and the second-highest-ranking official in the Senate, posted on social media platform X in response to Reuters’ report. “If Pres Trump wants 5 closed biodiesel plants to reopen & jobs in rural America we’ve got to hv the 5.25 BILLION for biodiesel,” he posted.

The agency said it would post the proposal on the EPA’s website once Administrator Lee Zeldin signs it.

Biomass-based (D4) credits RIN-D4-US were bid at 96 and 97 cents each, down from trading at 102 cents each on Wednesday.

Renewable fuel (D6) credits <RIN-D6-US> for 2025 traded at 92.5 cents on Thursday, down from 94.5 cents and 95 cents each on Wednesday, traders said.

Industry participants are also awaiting indication on how the EPA will address outstanding requests from small refineries for exemptions to the mandates. Small refiners can seek exemptions to the obligations if they can prove the requirements would cause them undue harm.

The White House is weighing a plan to clear a record backlog of those requests, Reuters previously reported, citing sources, which could include approving many current applications and requesting industry input to deal with older ones.

There are more than 160 outstanding requests for exemptions that represent potentially billions of dollars worth of tradable credits.

 

Trump Says Order Coming For Non-Citizen Farm, Leisure Workers

President Trump says he will soon have an order for farm and leisure workers who are not US citizens.

• “We’re going to have to do something about that,” Trump says of farming and leisure industries losing key employees who are not citizens
• “Our farmers are being hurt very badly,” Trump says, “they have very good workers”
• Trump speaks at White House during bill signing ceremony

 

Odds for Neutral Climate High Through Summer — Market Talk

(Dow Jones) — 1021 ET – The NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says that there’s an 82% chance of an ENSO-neutral climate condition from June to August. But the odds of it extending into the winter are less, with a 48% chance of a neutral climate in November through January, and a 41% chance of a La Niña climate at that time. A neutral climate over the summer may be supportive for grains growing in the Corn Belt, with rain versus heat being potentially more balanced. Earlier this week, the USDA reported that U.S. crop conditions were steadily improving. 71% of the corn crop was in good or excellent condition, up two points from the previous week. Good and excellent soybeans rose one point, to 68%.

 

Carlsberg Will Transition to Regenerative Grains for All Beers

Carlsberg plans to transition to brew all its beers using regeneratively grown grains, according to a statement.

• Carlsberg says the shift will come “eventually,” as it introduces the first beer to the Danish market brewed with 100% regeneratively grown barley malt
• By next year, Carlsberg in Denmark will be brewing 100 million liters of beer with regeneratively grown malted barley after signing supply contracts

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Decline: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 726k tons in the week ending June 7 from 859k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 14% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 39.1% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $12.13 per short ton, a decline of $0.36 from the previous week

 

 

 

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