Global Ag News for June 12.24

TOP HEADLINES

Rhine in south Germany reopens to shipping as water levels fall

The river Rhine in south Germany reopened to cargo shipping on Wednesday after being closed by high water on Tuesday, navigation authorities said.

Falling water levels after dryer weather means water has fallen to levels allowing Rhine river shipping to restart around Maxau in south Germany, the German inland waterways navigation agency said.

Shipping on northern sections of the river had been operating normally this week including the important points of Duisburg, Cologne and Duesseldorf.

High water means vessels do not have enough space to sail under bridges and the blockage prevented vessels sailing to Switzerland.

The Rhine is an important shipping route for commodities including minerals, coal and oil products such as heating oil, grains and animal feed.

The Rhine has repeatedly suffered from low water levels because of unusually dry summers in recent years.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 7 1/4 in SRW, down 9 1/4 in HRW, down 6 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3; Soybeans up 6; Soymeal up $0.80; Soyoil up 0.43.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 6 3/4 in SRW, down 18 1/4 in HRW, down 20 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 3 1/4; Soybeans up 5; Soymeal down $0.60; Soyoil up 0.42.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 59 1/4 in SRW, down 63 in HRW, down 67 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 6 1/4; Soybeans down 21; Soymeal down $4.60; Soyoil down 1.42.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 1.2% in SRW, up 0.9% in HRW, down 6.8% in HRS; Corn is down 4.1%; Soybeans down 8.4%; Soymeal down 6.7%; Soyoil down 7.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 24) Soybeans up 2 yuan; Soymeal down 16; Soyoil down 34; Palm oil down 2; Corn up 1 — Malaysian Palm is up 42. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 42 ringgit (+1.07%) at 3973.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,479 SRW Wheat contracts; 39 Oats; 747 Corn; 469 Soybeans; 2,589 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 11 were: SRW Wheat down 25,234 contracts, HRW Wheat down 8,036, Corn down 13,186, Soybeans down 16,732, Soymeal up 2,976, Soyoil down 8,865.

 

Northern Plains: A system will move through on Wednesday and Thursday with isolated showers. A larger system will move into the region on Friday and drop its front into and near the region that will stall out. That will bring rounds of heavy rain and severe storms through next week, which may produce some flooding in the region.

Central/Southern Plains: Two systems will move well off to the north of the region over the next few days but may spread a few showers and thunderstorms anyway. A much larger system will push a front into the region on Friday and Saturday and stall, with widespread precipitation forecast over the weekend and through next week, especially north. Overall, the rainfall should be mostly helpful for developing corn and soybeans but could be a hindrance for maturing and harvesting wheat. The rainfall will be needed with warmer temperatures returning to the area this week.

Midwest: Two systems will move through the region this week. And while they will not be very strong, they will bring some rainfall and potential severe weather through the region. The pattern gets more active this weekend for western areas, with a front moving into and stalling there through much of next week. Eastern areas are less likely to see rainfall. Temperatures will waffle with the systems moving through, but will be much more consistently warmer starting this weekend, which could start to stress areas that do not receive rain, particularly across the east.

Delta: Drier weather is likely for the rest of the week, but we may see moisture coming from the Gulf of Mexico start to produce showers and thunderstorms in the region this weekend. Temperatures will start to rise again by the end of the week, likely being quite warm and stressful if showers do not develop.

Canadian Prairies: Temperatures will be much more seasonable this week, but a couple of systems rolling through will bring scattered showers. A larger system moves in on Friday and brings more widespread precipitation through the region through the weekend. The storm track will be near or through the region for next week, with multiple disturbances being possible to bring showers through. Despite some issues with wetness, especially in the east, seeding is almost complete and crops have plenty of soil moisture for early growth in most areas.

Brazil: Dry conditions with warm temperatures are helping safrinha corn to mature, but are not favorable for the portion of the crop that is still immature. Dryness has been allowing southern areas to recover from flooding as well. Dry conditions and above normal temperatures continue for the next few days, with a front moving into the south this weekend that will produce rain into next week. That is not favorable for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, where they still need time to dry out more, but will be for any showers that can move north for immature safrinha corn.

Argentina: A front moved over southern areas over the weekend with limited rainfall, but most areas stayed dry, which is helpful for the remaining corn and soybean harvest. Winter wheat would like to see some rain falling in the country to help with planting and establishment. A front will move through the country on Friday. The front will have limited rainfall but systems that follow behind it could offer some additional moisture going into the second half of the month. Colder air will become a possibility as well, being unfavorable for wheat establishment.

Australia: A front scrapes through southeastern areas with some favorable showers Tuesday. Another system over western areas Tuesday will fizzle it out as it gets into eastern areas. However, most areas in the east have seen favorable rainfall in recent weeks, good enough for mostly good establishment conditions for winter wheat and canola. Though not especially wet this week, the change to La Nina should favor increasing rainfall for eastern areas of the country over the next few months. There are several chances for rain next week.

 

The player sheet for 6/11 had funds: net buyers of 8,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 1,500 corn, buyers of 4,000 soybeans, sellers of 3,500 soymeal, and buyers of 1,000 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

  • SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 104,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery to China in the 2023/24 marketing year.
  • WHEAT PURCHASE: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities, said on Tuesday it had bought 400,000 metric tons of wheat in an international tender. The purchase comprised 100,000 tons of Bulgarian wheat, 180,000 metric tonnes of Romanian wheat and 120,000 metric tons of Ukrainian wheat, GASC said.
  • WHEAT PURCHASE: A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Tuesday
  • WHEAT PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday
  • CORN TENDER: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group has issued an international tender to buy up to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn which can be sourced from the United States, Brazil, Argentina or South Africa.
  • FOOD WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 109,126 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on June 13.
  • VEGETABLE OIL TENDER: Egyptian state grains buyer the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) said on Tuesday that it was seeking vegetable oils in an international tender for arrival July 20 to Aug. 5 and/or Aug. 15-31. GASC said traders should submit bids for payment at sight using funding from the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC). The deadline for offers is June 13.

PENDING TENDERS

  • BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
  • WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 65,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Sept. 30 and arrive in Japan by Nov. 28, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on June 12.

 

Earth

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending June 7 are based on eight analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

  • Production seen lower than last week at 1.067m b/d
  • Stockpile avg est. 23.138m bbl vs 23.052m a week ago

 

China Scoops Up American Soy After Brazil’s Surprise Tax Change

  • China bought at least 208,000 tons of US soy since the change
  • Brazil is now considering withdrawing the provisional measure

A surprise tax change in Brazil, the world’s largest soybean exporter, is prompting Chinese buyers to snatch up US supplies.

Importers in China, the top commodities buyer, purchased at least 208,000 tons of soy since the change was announced last Tuesday, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture. The flash sales were the first transactions of the kind since January.

The purchases highlight how difficult it will be for President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to pass the provisional measure, which limits the ability of Brazil’s commodity exporters and processors to monetize some tax credits. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad is already considering withdrawing the decision after drawing the ire of companies and Congress, according to people familiar with the matter.

“China is buying US supplies because buyers in Brazil cannot pass along those higher costs to the farmer,” said Victor Martins, Latin America risk manager for Amius Ltd. “They are paying extra because offers in Brazil are reduced.”

Abiove, an industry group that represents major crop merchants including the storied ABCDs — representing Archer-Daniels-Midland Co., Bunge Global SA, Cargill Inc. and Louis Dreyfus Co. — had already warned the measure would slash profits for soybean processors. Some traders had also withdrawn new offers for commodities such as soybeans and corn from the market.

Sales of Argentine soybeans reach nearly 41% of current crop

The pace of soybean sales in Argentina during the current harvesting season accelerated in early June, according to official data released on Tuesday, bringing the total so far to 20.2 million metric tons or 40.7% of the expected crop.

Some 930,300 tons of soybeans were sold between May 30-June 5, the data showed, pushing sales to their fastest clip in about two years.

Argentina is the No. 1 global exporter of processed soybeans, in addition to being a major producer of corn, wheat and beef.

The South American country’s farmers are expected to harvest a total of 49.7 million tons of soybeans – the nation’s top cash crop – during the current 2023/24 season, with about 94% of the harvest completed as of last week, according to the data.

Around 41% of the expected soybean crop was harvested at this point in the season during the 2021/22 cycle, which ultimately yielded 43.9 million tons.

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 13.78 Million Tns In June Versus 12.08 Million Tns Estimated Last Week – Anec

  • BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 13.78 MILLION TNS IN JUNE VERSUS 12.08 MILLION TNS ESTIMATED LAST WEEK – ANEC
  • BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.38 MILLION TNS IN JUNE VERSUS 1.985 MILLION TNS ESTIMATED LAST WEEK – ANEC
  • BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.24 MILLION TNS IN JUNE VERSUS 1.05 MILLION TNS ESTIMATED LAST WEEK – ANEC

 

MGEX Spring Wheat Stocks Down 14.3% From Year Ago: June 9

Stocks of hard spring wheat stored in Minnesota and Wisconsin warehouses fell y/y to 10.51m bushels in the week ending June 9, according to the Minneapolis Grain Exchange’s weekly report.

  • Compared to the previous week, stockpiles rose by 79k bu
  • Stockpiles in Duluth/Superior warehouses up 93k bu from the previous week

 

China Boosts Estimate for 2023-24 Cotton Imports on Cheap Supply

China raised its forecast for cotton imports in 2023-24 by 200k tons as buyers take advantage of cheap overseas supplies, according to a monthly report from the agriculture ministry.

  • Imports now expected to be 3m tons in 2023-24, the ministry said in its China Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates report
  • The ministry maintained its forecast for imports during the 2024-25 marketing year at 2m tons
  • Sugar production in 2023-24 seen at 9.96m tons, up 11.3% y/y
  • High temperatures are making conditions unfavorable for the planting and growing of summer corn in parts of northern China
  • The ministry maintained its estimate for 2024-25 corn imports at 13m tons, down more than 30% y/y
  • Forecasts also remain unchanged for the production, import and consumption of corn and soybeans in 2024-25

 

Paraguay soy exports pick up pace as prices bounce, data show

Paraguay’s exports of its soybean crop, delayed by low river levels and weak prices earlier in the year, are gaining momentum, shipment data shared with Reuters show, as farmers speed up sales on stronger global demand and rosier values.

The landlocked South American nation’s shipments of the oilseed hit 1.13 million metric tons in May, up around 34% versus the previous month, the previously unreported data show, making it by far the strongest month of the year so far.

Paraguay, which overtook drought-hit neighbor Argentina as the No. 3 exporter of soybeans last year, is expected to harvest a record soy crop of over 10 million tons for the 2023/24 season. However, shipments had been stalled by low river levels, key for the barges that take the grain down river.

“Now the situation is improving for the Paraguayan farmer who still has grains,” Manuel Ferreira, a local consultant and former finance minister said. July soy futures in Rosario have also hit around $325 after dipping below $280 in February.

The country hosts key global grains traders, with major exporters including Cargill, Viterra, and Bunge

 

India’s fizzling monsoon could prolong heatwave in north, sources say

India’s monsoon rains have lost momentum after covering western regions ahead of schedule, and their arrival in northern and central states could be delayed, extending a heatwave in the grain-growing plains, two senior weather officials told Reuters.

Summer rains, critical to spur economic growth in Asia’s third-largest economy, usually begin in the south around June 1 before spreading nationwide by July 8, allowing farmers to plant crops such as rice, cotton, soybeans, and sugarcane.

“The monsoon has slowed down after reaching Maharashtra and may take a week to regain momentum,” an official of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) told Reuters.

The monsoon arrived nearly two days ahead of schedule in the western state home to the commercial capital of Mumbai, but its progress in central and northern states will be delayed by a few days, added the official, who sought anonymity.

The lifeblood of the nearly $3.5-trillion economy, the monsoon brings nearly 70% of the rain India needs to water farms and refill reservoirs and aquifers.

In the absence of irrigation, nearly half the farmland in the world’s second-biggest producer of rice, wheat and sugar depends on the annual rains that usually run from June to September.

The maximum temperature in India’s northern states ranges between 42 degrees Celsius and 46 degrees C (108 degrees Fahrenheit to 115 degrees F), which is nearly 3 degrees C to 5 degrees C (5 degrees F and 9 degrees F) above normal, the IMD data showed.

India’s northern and eastern states, such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand and Odisha, are likely to experience days of heatwave in the next two weeks, another weather official said.

“Weather models are not indicating any early respite from the heatwave,” the official said. “The delay in the monsoon’s progress will increase temperatures in the northern plains.”

 

 

 

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