TOP HEADLINES
Brazil Halts Chicken Exports to EU and Argentina on Virus
- Newcastle virus found on poultry farm in Rio Grande do Sul
- Shipments from the state suspended to China, other countries
Brazil is halting chicken exports to the European Union and Argentina after a virulent poultry disease was found on a commercial farm, disrupting shipments from the world’s largest exporter.
A chicken farm in Rio Grande do Sul state has been shut after the presence of the Newcastle virus was confirmed on Wednesday, according to the country’s agriculture ministry. The birds at the site are set to be destroyed as part of measures to stop the illness from spreading.
The South American nation is also suspending exports of chicken, eggs and other poultry-based products from the southern state, which borders Uruguay, to other countries including China, India, South Africa and Mexico, according to a notice issued by the ministry.
Newcastle disease, which is highly transmissible among birds but doesn’t affect humans, typically prompts major importing countries to raise bans on imports of chicken from infected regions. That would deal a blow to the likes of BRF SA, Brazil’s largest chicken producer, which has been recovering from a a poultry industry downturn.
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are up 2 3/4 in SRW, up 1 in HRW, up 2 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 1 3/4; Soybeans up 1 1/4; Soymeal up $0.80; Soyoil up 0.18.
For the week so far wheat prices are down 18 1/4 in SRW, down 10 3/4 in HRW, up 1 in HRS; Corn is down 10 1/4; Soybeans down 22 1/4; Soymeal down $2.80; Soyoil down 1.15.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 35 1/2 in SRW, down 22 1/2 in HRW, down 10 in HRS; Corn is down 14; Soybeans down 59 3/4; Soymeal down $23.20; Soyoil up 0.72.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 15.2% in SRW, down 13.2% in HRW, down 17.3% in HRS; Corn is down 17.2%; Soybeans down 14.9%; Soymeal down 12.4%; Soyoil down 2.2%.
Chinese Ag futures (SEP 24) Soybeans down 6 yuan; Soymeal up 20; Soyoil up 62; Palm oil down 40; Corn up 5 — Malaysian Palm is up 23.
Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 23 ringgit (+0.58%) at 3960.
There were changes in registrations (-1 Oats, -11 Soybeans). Registration total: 424 SRW Wheat contracts; 6 Oats; 64 Corn; 44 Soybeans; 1,182 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 18 were: SRW Wheat up 1,983 contracts, HRW Wheat down 573, Corn down 4,302, Soybeans down 852, Soymeal up 2,941, Soyoil up 3,757.
Northern Plains: A trough will move into the region on Friday and settle to the south for the weekend into next week. Occasional showers will be possible, but amounts are likely to be below normal. Montana may stay warm to hot though eastern areas will be milder underneath the trough. Temperatures are forecast to rise later next week with heat for the end of July, which is somewhat needed with crop development still behind from late planting. The combination of heat and lack of moisture should be stressful for some of the crop, however.
Central/Southern Plains: Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move through the region with a front sagging south the next couple of days. That is followed by an upper-level low that will move in and park itself in the region this weekend, offering widespread showers and thunderstorms through at least the front half of next week, especially south. Temperatures are becoming mild behind the front and will persist through next week underneath the trough, a good combination for crop development.
Midwest: A front carried showers and thunderstorms this week, but it will be dry behind it for a few days and temperatures are much more mild. An upper-level low settling off to the west this weekend through next week may or may not bring showers into the region through next week. Models are mixed on the coverage and intensity, but bring some rainfall through. Some areas in the southeast that are still struggling with soil moisture and drought may not get much rain while other areas that are wet in the northwest are going to see some favorable dryness.
Delta: A front sagging south through the region will continue to create showers and thunderstorms going into the weekend as it settles across the south and an upper-level low will move off to the west and continue chances through next week. Though showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast, coverage and intensity may be limited in some areas. Milder temperatures are settling in behind the front and should continue through next week underneath the trough. Overall, this should be a good setup for developing crops, but we could also see some flooding.
Canadian Prairies: Recent heat caused more rapid growth of crops over the last week and the heat generally continues through next week. Some isolated showers will move through over the next week, but the dryness continues, a concern for some areas that need the rain, especially in the southwest. The combination of heat and dryness is not favorable for most developing crops.
Brazil: After a run of heavier rainfall, drier conditions over the country persist into next week, favorable for the remaining corn harvest. Wheat planting is behind schedule from the wet conditions of the last couple of months, especially in Rio Grande do Sul in the far south. The drier weather should help in that regard.
Argentina: Frosts and mostly dry conditions have been unfavorable for vegetative wheat over the last week. More soil moisture is needed for the crop. Rainfall chances increase with a front moving into northern areas on Friday into the weekend with more for southern areas possible next week. Temperatures are more seasonable or even warm despite the front.
Europe: It is drier in western Europe through the rest of the week, which is favorable for harvest. A system will move through the continent this weekend into early next week with unfavorable showers for the northwest, but with needed showers for the southeast that has been very hot and dry this season. Showers will be sporadic behind the system for next week, but many areas will remain dry while temperatures become more seasonable.
Black Sea: A front will bring sporadic showers through the region through Friday, but mostly to western areas that have had much better success finding some rain. Eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia continue to deal with hot and largely dry conditions which have been unfavorable for corn and sunflowers. Chances may improve somewhat next week as a couple of systems will move through, but the forecast is not favoring the widespread heavy rain that is needed. Wheat harvest should continue to increase.
The player sheet for 7/18 had funds: net sellers of 0 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 6,500 corn, sellers of 3,000 soybeans, buyers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 2,000 soyoil.
TENDERS
- SOYBEAN SALE: Exporters sold 510,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for 2024/25 delivery, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Thursday.
- SOYBEAN CAKE AND MEAL SALE: Exporters sold 150,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for 2024/25 delivery, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Thursday.
- MILLING WHEAT PURCHASE UPDATE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have purchased between 700,000 to 750,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender on Wednesday
- VEGETABLE OILS PURCHASE: Egypt’s state grains buyer bought 20,000 metric tons of sunflower oil in an international tender, GASC and traders told Reuters. GASC also bought 28,000 metric tons of local soy oil in a local purchasing tender, the state buyer added.
- FOOD WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 115,208 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada, in a regular tender that closed on Thursday.
- FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
PENDING TENDERS
- MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
TODAY
US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country
The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending July 11, according to data on the USDA’s website.
- Top buyer of soybeans: Unknown Buyers with 215k tons
- Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 248k tons
- Top buyer of wheat: South Korea with 119k tons
US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country
The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending July 11, according to data on the USDA’s website.
- Mexico bought 8.5k tons of the 23.6k tons of pork sold in the week
- Mexico led in pork purchases for the week, China bought 2.8k tons
- China led in beef purchases
Argentine Corn, Wheat Crop Estimates July 18: Exchange
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.
- Corn production estimate maintained
- Wheat planting advanced to 95% complete from 92.9%
Polar winds slow short-cycle wheat planting in Argentina
Polar winds hampered short-cycle wheat planting in Argentina’s agricultural heartland last week, although producers hope the rains expected this weekend will allow sowing to resume, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Thursday.
Wheat planting of the 2024/25 crop now covers 96% of the 6.3 million hectares projected for the current cycle, up 2.21 percentage points from the previous week, the report indicated.
Argentina’s corn harvest is progressing in most of the agricultural area, wrapping up in the center and north but somewhat delayed in the south.
Corn planting is up 9.9 percentage points week-on-week, covering 79.2% of the national total, the grains exchange said, adding it maintained its production forecast at 46.5 million tons.
On a national level, the average yield is 65.5 quintals (6.55 metric tons) per hectare, an improvement of 14.5 quintals compared to the previous season, mainly due to the good performance of early plantings.
IGC Raises Outlook for Global Grain Stockpiles in 2024-25 Season
World grain stockpiles at the end of the 2024-25 season are now seen at 586m tons, up from a June estimate of 582m tons, the International Grains Council said in a report.
- That’s still a 10-year low
- The forecast for world grains production was raised to new all-time high of 2.32b tons, from 2.31b tons
- That’s due to better outlooks for wheat including in North America and Kazakhstan, and corn in the US
- Ukraine corn production seen at 27.2m tons compared with 27.7m tons last month
- NOTE: Scorching heat across eastern Europe and the Black Sea region has threatened crops
- Global wheat stocks seen at 269m tons, up from 261m tons previously
- Rice’s 2024-25 stockpile estimate was raised slightly 176m tons
French Soft Wheat Harvest is Slowest Since 2021 : AgriMer Data
Only 14% of the French soft wheat crop was harvested as of July 15, making it the slowest harvest since 2021, according to data from FranceAgriMer.
- Soft wheat in a good to very good condition also declined
- NOTE: Excessive rainfall has limited harvesting, planting and hurt crop conditions this year
- Winter barley harvest is almost 80% complete, while durum wheat is lagging the year before*
German Grain Harvest Will Be Below 42m Tons on Low Yields: DBV
Total grains harvested across Germany will likely be significantly lower than 42 million tons, farmers association Deutscher Bauernverband said in their first crop forecast for the season.
- Persistent rains have limited winter barley growth and harvest, with yields forecast at 7.0 tons per hectare, down from 7.4 tons per hectare the year before
- Total harvest this year is expected to be 9.2 million tons; below 2023’s estimated output of 9.5 million tons
- Fungal infestation is also exceptionally high this year, reducing crop quality
- The poor results for barley and the first threshing results for other crops indicate that the overall grain output will be below earlier estimates: DBV
Brazil detects first Newcastle disease case in poultry since 2006
Authorities are taking measures to contain an outbreak of Newcastle disease on a poultry farm in Brazil’s southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul, Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro told a press conference on Thursday.
Favaro estimated around 7,000 birds perished on the small property where the outbreak was detected, representing 50% of the flock there.
Newcastle is a viral disease that affects domestic and wild birds, causing respiratory problems, among other symptoms, and can lead to death. Its notification is mandatory as per guidelines from the World Organization for Animal Health.
The last confirmed cases of Newcastle disease in Brazil occurred in 2006 in subsistence birds in the states of Amazonas, Mato Grosso and Rio Grande do Sul, the agriculture ministry said.
Praising the country’s sanitary protocols as one of the best in the world, Favaro said the area where the case was detected has been isolated and there are no other outbreaks in the vicinity.
Brazil is the world’s largest chicken exporter, responding to almost 40% of global supplies.
Countries which buy poultry products from Brazil have been informed of the issue, as detection of Newcastle disease could trigger trade bans, Favaro said.
The most rigorous buyers are China and members of the European Union, he noted. It is unclear if any importer effectively banned products from Brazil or the region where the outbreak occurred.
The ministry of agriculture did not reply to emails seeking clarification.
The government had confirmed late on Wednesday that a sample tested positive for the viral disease, saying it came from a commercial poultry farm in the municipality of Anta Gorda.
According to an industry source, the circumstances of the mass deaths are still under investigation as cold weather may have contributed to the perishing of the animals.
“The official protocols to mitigate (risks) have been put in place and the surrounding area continues to be monitored,” ABPA, a meat lobby, said in a statement.
Shipping on Mississippi River Reopens After Flooding
Locks on the upper Mississippi River have reopened this week after being closed due to flooding earlier this month. The shipping channels span from Iowa to Missouri, says the USDA in its weekly Grain Transportation Report — and the closures have had a major effect on the movement of grains in recent weeks, with weekly volumes dropping as much as 85% from average. Shipping companies will now have to scramble to catch up, the USDA says. “Once all locks have reopened, barge companies will require several weeks to catch up with the backlog of freight that has accrued since early July when flooding began,” says the agency. “It may also take several weeks for river logistics to return to normal.”
US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Increase: USDA
Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 278k tons in the week ending July 13 from 439k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.
- Barge shipments of corn fell 29% from the previous week
- Soybean shipments down 53% w/w
- St. Louis barge rates were $10.37 per short ton, an increase of $1.76 from the previous week
Drought Exposure for US Corn, Soybean Crops Declines: July 16
The following shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending July 16, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.
- Corn area experiencing moderate to intense drought dropped to 5% from 7% in the previous week
- Soybean area in drought fell to 5% from 8%
- Spring wheat rose 5 points to 12% in drought
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