Global Ag News For July 12.22
Wheat prices overnight are down 12 3/4 in SRW, down 12 3/4 in HRW, down 20 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 8 3/4; Soybeans down 21; Soymeal down $0.36; Soyoil down 0.99.
For the week so far wheat prices are down 27 1/2 in SRW, down 24 3/4 in HRW, down 32 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 5; Soybeans up 1 1/2; Soymeal down $0.25; Soyoil up 0.49.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 40 1/4 in SRW, down 49 1/4 in HRW, down 46 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1/2; Soybeans down 74; Soymeal down $9.40; Soyoil down 4.14.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 8% in SRW, up 15% in HRW, down -4% in HRS; Corn is up 32%; Soybeans up 23%; Soymeal up 17%; Soyoil up 16%.
Chinese Ag futures (SEP 22) Soybeans down 71 yuan; Soymeal up 14; Soyoil up 26; Palm oil down 118; Corn down 17 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 19 ringgit (-0.46%) at 4138.
There were changes in registrations (-4 Oats, 221 Soyoil). Registration total: 2,653 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 319 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 66 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 11 were: SRW Wheat up 1,101 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,337, Corn down 5,378, Soybeans down 515, Soymeal up 4,516, Soyoil down 550.
Northern Plains Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.
Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Isolated showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal south and near to below normal north through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.
Western Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Isolated showers north Friday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday-Thursday, above normal Friday.
Eastern Midwest Forecast: Isolated showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.
Canadian Prairies Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers west Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday, above normal Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Thursday-Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Scattered showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.
The player sheet for 7/11 had funds: net sellers of 12,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 5,500 corn, sellers of 5,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and buyers of 4,000 soyoil.
- FEED WHEAT/FEED CORN PURCHASE: An importer group in the Philippines bought 50,000 to 60,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat expected to be sourced from Australia in an international tender on Friday
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s ministry of trade issued a tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of wheat, the state news agency reported.
- WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase 44,725 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States
- WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy 130,900 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in regular tenders that will close on Thursday.
- WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
- VEGETABLE OIL TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer said on Monday it was seeking at least 3,000 tonnes of soyoil and 1,000 tonnes of sunflower oil in a local production tender for arrival Aug. 10-30.
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of hard milling wheat
- FEED WHEAT, FEED BARLEY TENDER: Japan is seeking 70,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 40,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Oct. 31 and arrive in Japan by Dec. 22 via a simultaneous buy and sell auction on July 13, the country’s agriculture minister said.
- FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
- WHEAT TENDER: The Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP)issued a new international tender to purchase and import 300,000 tonnes of wheat
US Inspected 934k Tons of Corn for Export, 357k of Soybean
In week ending July 7, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.
- Soybeans: 357k tons vs 437k the previous wk, 201k a yr ago
- Wheat: 310k tons vs 273k the previous wk, 429k a yr ago
- Corn: 934k tons vs 876k the previous wk, 1,002k a yr ago
US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: July 7
Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending July 7 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.
- Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 75k tons of the 357k total inspected
- China was the top destination for corn inspections, Mexico led in wheat
China Cuts Cotton Import Forecast on Higher Global Prices: CASDE
China reduces cotton import estimate in 2021-22 by 250,000 tons to 1.75m tons because of higher world prices, the China Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates show.
- Cotton consumption is also cut by 200,000 tons to 7.9m tons due to weak demand; revisions are from previous month
- Latest cotton consumption estimate for 2022-23 is 7.85m tons, 200,000 tons less than last month
- Climate conditions in most corn-growing regions are better than last year and China may see a record corn yield per unit land area in 2022-23, with total production being equal or slightly higher than the previous year
- Summer soybean seeding has been completed and planting area has risen from a year earlier
- China’s edible oil production in 2021-22 is predicted to be 28m tons, 150,000 tons less than the previous month
China to Import More Palm Oil From Malaysia, Wang Yi Says
China, the world’s second-largest palm oil buyer, will increase its purchases of the tropical oil from Malaysia, Bernama reported, citing Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
Malaysia’s palm oil exports to China rose more than 13% in June month-on-month to 96,496 tons, according to data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board on Tuesday, though shipments slid 55% from the year-earlier month.
Wang, who is on a two-day official visit to Malaysia, also said that efforts are being made to enable Malaysian students to return to China as soon as possible to continue their studies, according to the report.
China is Malaysia’s largest trading partner and made up for about 19% of the nation’s total trade in 2021. Malaysia is the world’s No. 2 producer of palm oil.
WHEAT/CEPEA: Supply and consumption may hit a record in Brazil
Players of the wheat market are focused on the harvesting and weather conditions in the Northern Hemisphere and on crop estimates and planting activities in the Southern Hemisphere.
In Brazil, Conab indicated a record harvest in 2022/23, at 9.03 million tons, 17.6% up in relation to the previous (2021/22). Productivity is expected to increase 10.3% in the same comparison, at 3.092 tons per hectare. The area may move up 6.6%, at 2.92 million hectares.
In spite of the record harvest, import estimates continue at 6.5 million tons, resulting in domestic availability at 16.02 million tons, a record. The domestic consumption is forecast at the record of 12.26 million tons. However, the domestic surplus may also hit a high volume, at 3.75 million tons, which requires that exports continue at a good pace. For now, Conab indicates shipments of 2.5 million tons between August/22 and July/23, with ending stocks at 1.25 million tons by July/23.
Cepea surveys show that, between July 1and 8, the prices paid to wheat farmers remained stable in Paraná and Santa Catarina and rose by 1.29% in Rio Grande do Sul. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values decreased by 0.17% in SP, 0.11% in RS and 1.83% in PR, but remained stable in SC. The American currency dropped by 1.07% in the same period, at 5.265 BRL on July 8.
Data from Secex indicate that Brazil exported 47.02 thousand wheat tons in June, totaling 3.16 million tons in 12 months (from July/21 to June/22). From January to June 2022, 2.6 million tons were shipped, a record for the six first months of the year.
Imports, in turn, amounted 627.11 thousand tons in June, at the average price of 1,965.74 BRL per ton. In 12 months, Brazil purchased 6.12 million tons.
France Sees 2022 Soft-Wheat Harvest Falling 7% Y/y on Dryness
France is expected to collect 32.9m tons of soft wheat this year, down 7.2% y/y, its agriculture ministry said Tuesday in an initial forecastfor the season.
- That would put the production 5.9% below the prior five-year average
- Yields are seen at 6.99 tons/hectare, versus 7.11 tons/ha last year
- French grain crops suffered from rainfall deficits, heat and storm damage this season, the ministry said
- NOTE: The nation saw one of its hottest and driest springs on record, according to Meteo France
- Durum-wheat harvest is seen at 1.3m tons, the lowest since 2003
- Barley harvest seen at 11.2m tons, down 2.4% y/y
- Rapeseed harvest seen at 3.98m tons, up 20% y/y
- Outlook for corn plantings raised slightly to 1.46m hectares, versus June estimate of 1.44m hectares
- Sugar-beet area left steady at 397k hectares
- Sunflower plantings raised to 840k hectares, versus 797k hectares
- That’s the biggest area since 1997
Ukraine exported 318,000 tonnes of grain from July 1-8 – AgMin – Interfax Russia & CIS Business and Financial Newswire
Ukraine exported 318,000 tonnes of grain between July 1 and July 8, with corn making up a significant portion of it at 249,000 tonnes, or 78% of overall grain exports, the Ukrainian media reported, citing the Ukrainian Agrarian Policy and Food Ministry on Friday.
The grain exports were down 38.6% from 518,000 tonnes from July 1-8 last year due, the ministry said, to the blockade of Ukrainian ports, which are key export infrastructure.
Average daily exports fell 18.5% in the first eight days of July 2022 compared to the previous reporting period of June 22-30. Ukraine exported 45,400 tonnes of grain per day in the first eight days of July to reach a total of 318,000 tonnes, while it exported 55,700 tonnes per day to total 502,000 tonnes of grain from June 22-30.
Exports of corn were down 25% year-on-year from July 1-8 at 249,000 tonnes, wheat exports were down 70.6% at 52,000 tonnes, and flour exports fell 64.3% to 900 tonnes. Barley exports totaled 15,000 tonnes in the first eight days of July this year, while none was exported in the same period of last year.
According to preliminary data from the Agrarian Policy and Food Ministry, Ukraine exported 48.51 million tonnes of grains and pulses in the agricultural marketing year running from July 2021 to June 2022, 8.4% more than the previous marketing year. Wheat exports totaled 18.74 million tonnes, up 12.6% year-on-year, corn totaled 23.54 million tonnes, up 1.9%, barley reached 5.75 million tonnes, up 35.9%, and flour totaled 70,900 tonnes, down 44.1%.
Ukraine exported 44.72 million tonnes of grains and pulses in the 2020-2021 marketing year, including 16.64 million tonnes of wheat, 23.08 million tonnes of corn, and 4.23 million tonnes of barley. Ukraine also exported 126,900 tonnes of flour and 18,400 tonnes of rye.
Russia’s breadbasket seeing high yields as wheat harvest starts
Farmers in Russia’s southern Rostov region, one of the largest grain producing and exporting areas of the country, are seeing high wheat yields as harvesting gets underway, growers and officials in the region said.
Sanctions-hit Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, is expected to produce a massive crop in 2022 with record amounts available to supply abroad in the July-June marketing season. (Full Story) (Full Story)
“The crop prospects are good,” Viktor Goncharov, first deputy governor of the region told Reuters, adding that wheat yields are so far 0.1-0.2 tonnes per hectare higher than a year ago. “Weather, readiness of equipment – everything is favourable.”
Russia’s exports are crucial for global wheat supply as Ukraine’s Black Sea ports have been blocked after the Kremlin sent thousands of troops into the country on February 24.
The Rostov region is expected to repeat last year’s record crop when it harvested 12.7 million tonnes of wheat, including 11.5 million tonnes of winter wheat, Goncharov told Reuters at one of the farms in the southwestern part of the region.
Western sanctions imposed on Russia for what Moscow calls a “special military operation” in Ukraine have not affected the supply of harvesting equipment so far as farmers in the region mostly use locally-produced tractors and combines, he added.
Bessergenevskoye, a farm in the western part of region is so far getting the same yields as a year ago following a lack of rains in the area, its deputy head, Sergei Studinikin said.
Spare parts for imported equipment have become more expensive due to the sanctions but farmers managed to buy them before the start of harvesting and had 99% of equipment ready when the work started, Alexei Kushnaryov, deputy head of Zernogradsky district in the southern part of the region, said.
“Farmers are used to surviving in any conditions, so ways [of solving the problem] have been found. As you can see today, the harvesting work is progressing well,” he said, adding that yields were higher than a year ago.
Russia’s July wheat exports seen modest amid logistics problems
Russian wheat exports are expected to remain muted in July despite lower export tax, a massive crop and a weakening rouble RU/RUB as problems with logistics and trade finance caused by Western sanctions persist.
The world’s largest wheat exporter is expected to have record amounts of the crop available to supply abroad in the July-June marketing season, and reduced grain export taxes sharply on July 1 to support shipments. (Full Story) (Full Story)
The IKAR agriculture consultancy said on Monday that it downgraded its forecast for Russia’s July wheat exports to 1.7-2.0 million tonnes from the previously expected 2.0-2.3 million tonnes.
“Early July exports look sluggish – line-up volume and exporters’ commitment remain low,” Sovecon, another consultancy, said in a note.
It currently estimates Russia’s July wheat exports at 2.3 million tonnes vs 1.1 million tonnes in June. (Full Story)
“From that level we currently expect exports to go to at least 4.0 million tonnes in August. If we do not hit that level, the total season export target could be in trouble and should be revised lower,” it added.
Sovecon currently expects Russia’s wheat exports in the July-June season at 42.6 million tonnes.
Weekly exports from Russia sped up last week – to 340,000 tonnes of grain vs 250,000 tonnes a week earlier – but still remain low for this time of the season. (Full Story)
Russian wheat export prices fell last week under pressure from the new crop, the weaker rouble and lower export tax.
“Russian wheat prices are declining but they need to go further down to help make it more competitive,” Sovecon said.
Russian Separatists Seizes Two Cargo Ships Trapped In Mariupol, More May Follow
Russian separatists have seized two trapped general cargo ships at the Ukrainian Port of Mariupol and chances that they will be returned to their owner are pretty slim, according to people involved in the matter. The Liberia-flagged Smarta and the Panama flagged Blue Star were taken over in late June and their owners were informed by the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, that the vessels were declared state property. “Such forced appropriation is in breach of fundamental human rights in so far as property rights are concerned…and a serious threat to shipping,” Smarta Shipping said in a statement. Some 80 vessels are still trapped in the Black Sea and Ukraine has accused Russia of using cargo ships to smuggle out Ukrainian wheat to the Middle East.
Erdogan and Zelenskiy Discussed Grain Exports by Phone: AA
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan discussed plans on establishing safe corridors on the Black Sea to facilitate grain exports with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Monday, state-run Anadolu Agency reported, citing the Presidency’s Directorate of Communications.
Erdogan said Turkey continues to work on the plan prepared by the United Nations regarding the exports of Ukraine’s grain products to world market.
Putin, Erdogan Discuss Grain Exports Ahead of Summit: Kremlin
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke by phone ahead of a summit, which may take place “soon”, Kremlin says in e-mailed statement.
Presidents exchanged “opinions on situation around Ukraine, including in the context of coordinating efforts to ensure safety of shipping in the Black Sea and grain exports to global markets”
The two leaders discussed economic cooperation, including measures to increase trade volumes and payments in national currencies, as well as continued uninterrupted supply of Russian energy
Brazil 2022 Winter Corn Harvest 40.5% Done as of July 7: AgRural
Brazil Center South winter corn harvest was at 30.7% a week earlier and 19.8% a year ago, according to an emailed report from consultancy firm AgRural.
Yields are broadly in line with expectations, but with better numbers in parts of Mato Grosso and some disappointments in Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul
Brazil 2022 Soy Harvest Estimated At 125.8 Million Tns – Abiove
- BRAZIL 2022 SOY HARVEST ESTIMATED AT 125.8 MILLION TNS VERSUS 125.5 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS ESTIMATE – ABIOVE
- BRAZIL 2022 SOYBEAN EXPORTS SEEN AT 76.8 MILLION TNS VERSUS 77 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS ESTIMATE, SAYS ABIOVE
- BRAZIL 2022 SOYOIL PRODUCTION SEEN AT 9.8 MILLION TNS VERSUS 9.75 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS ESTIMATE, SAYS ABIOVE
- BRAZIL 2022 SOYOIL EXPORTS SEEN AT 2.15 MILLION TNS VERSUS 2 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, SAYS ABIOVE
- BRAZIL 2022 SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN AT 18.5 MILLION TNS VERSUS 18.3 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, SAYS ABIOVE
- BRAZIL 2022 DOMESTIC SOYBEAN PROCESSING ESTIMATED AT RECORD 48.3 MILLION TNS VERSUS 48.1 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST, SAYS ABIOVE
- BRAZIL 2022 SOYMEAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATED AT 37 MILLION TNS VERSUS 36.8 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST, SAYS ABIOVE
Malaysia June Palm Oil Exports to India -45.6% M/m: Details
Malaysia’s palm oil exports to India fell 45.6% to 0.17 million tons in June from a month earlier, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board posted on its website.
- Exports to India -45.6% m/m to 171,081 tons, -39% y/y
- Exports to China +13.4% m/m to 96,495 tons, -55.2% y/y
- Exports to EU -11.3% m/m to 123,605 tons, -16.5% y/y
Malaysia June Palm Stockpiles +8.8% M/m to 1.66M Tons: MPOB
Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, the world’s second-largest producer, rose 8.8% to 1.66 million tons in June from a month earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says in statement today.
- Palm oil exports -13.3% m/m to 1.19m tons
- Crude palm oil production +5.8% m/m to 1.55m tons
US Fertilizer Prices Moving Down as Summer Reset Accelerates
A round of aggressive summer fill programs has nudged US fertilizer prices lower. Phosphate, ammonia and ammonium sulfate were priced significantly below the spot market in the traditional summer reset. The UAN fill program is expected in July and prices could drop 16% from prompt levels.
UAN Fill Offers May Plunge 16% on Seasonal Reset
Prices in the US urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) market’s July fill program could be 16% below prompt levels. UAN historically trades at a 2 cents-a-pound premium to urea in the Corn Belt and resets lower in the annual summer fill program. This spring, the spread widened to the highest on record at 30 cents. We expect UAN fill prices at $385 a short ton as the spread reverts to normal. The fill-program price is typically the lowest offer in the fertilizer year, and prices usually rise from 3Q into 2Q.
The International Trade Commission is expected to rule on the countervailing-duty investigations of US UAN imports from Russia and Trinidad this summer. If the ruling is affirmative, the US Commerce Department will issue AD/CVD orders that will remain in place for five years and alter UAN trade flows and pricing.
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