Global Ag News for Jan 8.2025

TOP HEADLINES

India Considers Lifting Ban on Trade in Some Crop Futures

India is considering revoking a three-year ban on futures trading in seven farm commodities, including wheat and unprocessed rice, after studies found the steps were counterproductive, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

A government panel recommended ending the suspension, after the findings showed that restrictions imposed in 2021 to tame costs had instead disrupted market-price discovery, the person said, asking not to be identified as the discussions are private. Local crop rates have also stabilized following fresh harvests, the person said.

A final decision will be taken by a group of ministers in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration, which will then ask the Securities and Exchange Board of India to lift the curbs or extend them beyond the existing Jan. 31 deadline. Emails sent to the finance ministry and the capital markets regulator weren’t immediately answered.

A revocation would be another step by the world’s leading grain and sugar producer to ease pandemic-era restrictions on several farm goods. After Modi this year won a third term, his government lifted a ban on export of some rice varieties, and sold grains from state reserves.

India started its clampdown some three years ago to ensure a steady supply of grains for a welfare program to provide free wheat and rice to about 800 million people, as inflation hit a three-decade high on rising food prices. It curbed exports of wheat, sugar and rice, discouraged hoarding, and imposed storage limits. The moves roiled world markets and angered local farmers.

A study commissioned by SEBI concluded that the ban on agricultural commodities, including chickpeas, rapeseed, soybeans, green gram and crude palm oil, harmed both futures and spot markets, and prices continued to rise, the person said. The report also highlighted that every suspension led to greater trust deficit in the derivatives market, making it more difficult to attract investors, the person said.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 1/4 in SRW, down 2 1/4 in HRW, down 2 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans up 1 3/4; Soymeal down $2.10; Soyoil up 0.52.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 11 in SRW, up 14 1/2 in HRW, up 15 in HRS; Corn is up 7; Soybeans up 7 1/4; Soymeal down $7.20; Soyoil up 1.84.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 11 1/4 in SRW, down 5 3/4 in HRW, down 3 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans down 11 1/2; Soymeal down $15.50; Soyoil up 1.41.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans down 22 yuan; Soymeal down 15; Soyoil down 18; Palm oil up 110; Corn up 4 — Malaysian Palm is down 11.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 11 ringgit (-0.25%) at 4354.

There were changes in registrations (-138 Soybeans, -2 Soymeal). Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 72 Oats; 6 Corn; 310 Soybeans; 1,034 Soyoil; 1,466 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 7 were: SRW Wheat down 1,023 contracts, HRW Wheat down 3,387, Corn up 11,911, Soybeans up 822, Soymeal down 8,786, Soyoil up 4,662.

 

Brazil: Widespread wet season showers continue in central and northern Brazil, favorable for filling soybeans, but perhaps hampering the very early harvest. The main harvest period does not start for a couple of weeks yet, so the rain is overall favorable. Showers across the south are much more infrequent for the next couple of weeks, which could be a problem for filling soybeans in Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana and pollinating to filling corn in Rio Grande do Sul.

Argentina: Soil moisture is falling in many areas of Argentina and the forecast is only calling for spotty, isolated showers across the south through next week. That should start leading to issues for early-planted corn that is pollinating to filling. It is still early for late-planted corn and soybeans to have major concerns, but issues may start to pop up with temperatures above normal with the lack of rainfall.

Northern Plains: The region will see several systems and fronts push through over the next couple of weeks, but very little precipitation is forecast. Drought continues to be a concern this winter. Temperatures will be more above normal than below it through most of next week, but we could see a big burst of cold air moving back into the region next weekend.

Central/Southern Plains: Cold air that has settled in is extremely cold where the snow from the weekend is the heaviest. The cold could cause winter kill on exposed wheat and higher rations for livestock. Several systems look to move through the region this week and next, with a focus on Texas and Oklahoma, which could help the soil moisture situation in these areas. It will also be a generally colder pattern through next week too.

Midwest: A major winter moved out on Monday, leaving behind a blanket of heavy snow across the south. We could see another snow producer for southern and eastern areas late Friday and Saturday. Clippers are likely to follow every couple of days through next week, though models are insisting on milder temperatures overall after a cold burst this week. Southern areas that have seen snow could take a while to melt and keep temperatures down for a bit.

 

The player sheet for Jan. 7 had funds: net buyers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 2,000 corn, buyers of 2,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,000 soymeal, and buyers of 3,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: Exporters sold 110,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to Colombia for 2024/25 delivery, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan purchased 60,000 tons in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday.

 PENDING TENDERS

• CORN & WHEAT TENDER: South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 138,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 60,000 tons of feed wheat.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice
• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued an international tender to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal-feed corn from Argentina or Brazil
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 114,650 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Jan. 3 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.093m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 23.873m bbl vs 23.639m a week ago

 

EU’s Soft-Wheat Exports Drop 34% Y/Y During Season to Jan. 5

EU soft wheat exports in the season that started July 1 totaled 11.2m tons as of Jan. 5, compared with 16.9m tons a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations included Nigeria with about 1.8m tons, Morocco with 1.1m tons and the UK with 887k tons
• Barley exports were 2.2m tons, down 32% y/y
• Corn imports totaled 10.1m tons, up 5% y/y
• NOTE: Click here for figures on oilseed trade
• NOTE: Export data for Italy are not complete for the last six weeks; data for France are not complete since the beginning of calendar year 2024; Bulgaria and Ireland data are incomplete since the start of marketing year 2023-24

 

Brazil’s C-S Winter Corn Crop Sales 83.9% Completed: Safras

Sales of the 2024 winter corn crop in Brazil’s Center-South region compares with 78% a year earlier and a five-year average of 83.3%, according to a report from Safras & Mercado consulting firm.

 

MGEX Spring Wheat Stocks Down 24% From Year Ago: Jan. 5

Stocks of hard spring wheat stored in Minnesota and Wisconsin warehouses fell y/y to 12.73m bushels in the week ending Jan. 5, according to the Minneapolis Grain Exchange’s weekly report.

• Compared to the previous week, stockpiles rose by 406k bu
• Stockpiles in Duluth/Superior warehouses up 587k bu from the previous week

 

Indonesia Issues Rule on Used-Cooking Oil Exports

Trade ministry issued regulation on exports of used cooking oil and other palm oil residue to ensure supply of raw material for govt’s cheap cooking oil program and to support implementation of the B40 biodiesel blending.

• Govt to decide on the exports plan in a meeting with related ministries, according to the regulation posted on website.
• Exporters must apply for export permit which will be valid for six months after issuance

 

US Agriculture Sentiment Weakens in December: Purdue Univ.

The Purdue University/CME Group’s agricultural sentiment index fell to 136 points in Dec. from 145 in Nov., according to a survey of 400 agricultural producers.

• “One area of concern for US farmers continues to be the future of international trade in agricultural products,” according to the report’s authors James Mintert and Michael Langemeier
• Current conditions component declined by 13 points from Nov.
• Future expectations down by 8 points

 

 

 

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