Global Ag News for Jan 6.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Farmers warned of yellow rust attack on wheat crops

After the recent attack of pink stem borer on wheat crops, the Punjab agriculture department has issued a new warning to farmers regarding the potential threat of yellow rust disease in wheat fields.

Yellow rust, a fungal disease, causes the crop’s leaves to turn yellow, halting photosynthesis and resulting in a significant drop in yield.

Karanjit Singh Gill, chief agriculture officer of Moga, along with his team, recently visited several villages in the Dharamkot sub-division in the district to inspect wheat crops sown without burning paddy stubble.

During their visit, the team informed farmers about the yellow rust disease and its impact on wheat crops.

Gill urged farmers to regularly monitor their fields for symptoms of yellow rust and report any findings to the department. The department is working to raise awareness about the yellow rust disease and provide support to farmers across the southern Malwa region, including Moga and Faridkot.

The department has advised them to use recommended fungicides at appropriate doses to prevent the disease from spreading.

Earlier this week, agriculture department officials had said that with the drop in temperature, the impact of pink stem borer had lessened. The pest had caused significant damage to crops, especially in areas where farmers had avoided burning paddy stubble. However, yellow rust disease now presents a fresh challenge for farmers.

Agriculture officer Karamjit Singh Brar highlighted decreasing water levels in the Malwa region. “Farmers should prioritise water conservation by opting for alternative crops like moong, maize, mustard, gram, and sundew, instead of wheat and paddy, which consume more water,” he said.

The team also appealed to farmers to avoid using excessive pesticides and fertilisers without consulting agricultural experts.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 4 1/4 in SRW, up 3 1/4 in HRW, up 5 in HRS; Corn is up 4; Soybeans up 10; Soymeal up $3.30; Soyoil up 0.50.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 13 in SRW, down 12 1/4 in HRW, down 12 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans up 12; Soymeal up $1.40; Soyoil up 0.43.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 18 in SRW, down 17 in HRW, down 13 in HRS; Corn is down 3 3/4; Soybeans down 8 3/4; Soymeal down $5.00; Soyoil up 0.07.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans down 33 yuan; Soymeal down 20; Soyoil down 80; Palm oil up 74; Corn down 4 — Malaysian Palm is down 26.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 26 ringgit (-0.60%) at 4342.

 

There were changes in registrations (-66 Soybeans, -79 Soymeal). Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 72 Oats; 17 Corn; 470 Soybeans; 1,079 Soyoil; 1,491 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 3 were: SRW Wheat up 11,579 contracts, HRW Wheat up 4,136, Corn down 10,143, Soybeans down 2,110, Soymeal down 11,753, Soyoil up 4,271.

 

Brazil: Widespread wet season showers continue in central and northern Brazil, favorable for filling soybeans, but perhaps hampering the very early harvest. The main harvest period is not for a couple of weeks yet and so the rain is overall favorable. Showers across the south are much more infrequent for the next couple of weeks, which could be a problem for filling soybeans in Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana and pollinating to filling corn in Rio Grande do Sul.

Argentina: Soil moisture is falling in many areas of Argentina and the forecast is only calling for spotty, isolated showers across the south for the next couple of weeks. That should start leading to issues for early-planted corn that is pollinating to filling. It is still early for late-planted corn and soybeans to have major concerns, but issues may start to pop up with temperatures above normal with the lack of rainfall.

Northern Plains: Snow fell across southern areas over the weekend, being heavy in parts of Montana, but not enough to have much of an effect on the ongoing drought. The region will see several systems and fronts push through over the next couple of weeks, but very little overall precipitation. Drought continues to be a concern this winter.

Central/Southern Plains: A major winter storm moved through this weekend, bringing heavy snow and freezing rain to parts of Kansas, but very little to western Kansas and other hard red winter wheat areas. Cold air settling in for the next couple of days will be extreme in some areas, and may cause winter kill on wheat and higher rations for livestock. Several systems look to move through the region this week and next, with a focus on Texas and Oklahoma, which could help the soil moisture situation in these areas. It will also be a generally cold pattern for a while, though, too.

Midwest: A major winter storm moved in over the weekend with heavy amounts of snow and some freezing rain across the south. The system exits on Monday, but we could see another snow producer for southern and eastern areas late this week and weekend. Clippers are likely to follow every couple of days through next week, though models are insisting on milder temperatures overall after a cold burst this week. Southern areas that do see snow could take a while to melt and keep temperatures down for a bit.

Lower Mississippi: Water levels remain above the low-water mark in most of the Mississippi and Ohio River systems, bolstered by strong storm this weekend and another coming up later this week. If yet another one of these larger systems moves through next week, water levels will continue to be high, allowing for easy transportation. Northern areas of the Mississippi Basin is getting drier though, and could use some precipitation.

 

The player sheet for Jan. 3 had funds: net sellers of 13,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 17,000 corn, sellers of 14,500 soybeans, sellers of 9,500 soymeal, and sellers of 4,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

  • WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 114,650 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States.

 PENDING TENDERS

  • RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
  • RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

Globe of the Earth

 

 

TODAY

US Sold 484.7K Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 777K of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending Dec. 26.

  • Corn sales fell to 777k tons vs 1,721k in previous week
  • All wheat sales fell to 141k tons vs 625k in previous week
  • Soybean sales fell to 485k tons vs 1,103k in previous week

 

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Dec. 26, according to data on the USDA’s website.

  • Top buyer of soybeans: China with 618k tons
  • Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 293k tons
  • Top buyer of wheat: South Korea with 36k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Dec. 26, according to data on the USDA’s website.

  • Mexico bought 11.3k tons of the 21.1k tons of pork sold in the week
  • South Korea led in beef purchases

 

Argentina Soy, Corn Feeling Stress From Dryness: Grain Exchange

A lack of rain is starting to worsen the condition of plants, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in a weekly report.

  • Soy planting progress 93%, corn 87%
  • Wheat harvest 95%

 

Argentine Soy, Corn, Wheat Estimates Jan. 3: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

  • 2024-25 corn and soybean area planted estimates are maintained
  • Soybean planting advances to 92.7% complete and corn planting 87.4% complete

 

Hot Argentine summer is starting to damage crops, exchanges say

  • Hot, dry summer damages Argentina’s soybean and corn crops
  • Buenos Aires and Rosario exchanges report crop damage from high temperatures
  • Corn and soy crops still progressing well due to prior moisture

A hot, dry austral summer is beginning to cause damage to Argentina’s 2024/25 soybean and corn crops, the country’s two main grains exchanges said on Friday, after abundant spring rains had until recently provided excellent growing conditions.

Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soybean oil and meal and the third largest exporter of corn, as well as a major wheat supplier. Until a few weeks ago, the Buenos Aires grains exchange (BdeC) had reported virtually no signs of crop damage thanks to wet spring weather.

As summer began in late December, however, it began to see impacts on crops of high temperatures and scarcer rainfall.

The Rosario grains exchange (BCR) said north-east of Buenos Aires province and southern Santa Fe province had seen just 35 millimeters (1.38 inches) of rain in December, well below the monthly historical average of 110 millimeters.

“There is a lot of concern in this sector because water reserves go from scarcity to drought,” analyst Marina Barletta said in the BCR report.

For corn crops, farmed in the southern section of Argentina’s agricultural heartlands, BdeC said that “symptoms of water stress are beginning to be observed, such as yellowing of the basal leaves with possible yield losses.”

Corn farmers have so far planted 87% of 6.6 million hectares (16.3 million acres) of soybean forecast by the BdeC, and 93% of an estimated 18.4 million hectares of soy fields.

For soy, BdeC said that the area of croplands that benefited from “adequate to optimal” water conditions had shrunk by 7 percentage points to 81% of the total planted area.

Despite the hot weather, BdeC said the two key crops are generally progressing well thanks to the abundant moisture from the last months of 2024.

Argentina’s wheat season is nearly complete, the exchange added, saying that farmers have now harvested 95% of an estimated 18.6 million tons of wheat.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Future prices indicate lower values; production may increase in Brazil

This year starts with distinct scenarios in both domestic and international corn markets. In Brazil, prices are above those verified at the beginning of 2024, but the futures market indicates lower quotations compared to the current ones. At CME Group, in turn, contracts are lower in relation to those registered in early 2024 and there are no signs of recovery in 2025.

In the domestic context, lower future values are related to the expectation of higher production in 2025 against 2024. As for international prices, there is a certain balance between supply and demand in the United States, but the US surplus is high, which requires exports to be firm in a scenario of political uncertainties (due to the new government).

BRAZIL – The upward trend for corn prices in the second semester of 2024 in major producing areas in Brazil may attract producers and increase the planting of the second crop in 2025. As the sowing of summer crops (such as soybean) is faster, the second corn crop is expected to be planted in the ideal period.

The possible higher production is followed by estimates indicating a record domestic consumption, especially from the animal feeding sector and the growing industry of corn ethanol in Brazil. A possible balance between supply and demand may come from a decrease in exports – they can be limited by the smaller domestic surplus.

Taking into account initial stocks at 4.422 million tons (by February/25), total production at 119.6 million tons and imports at 1.9 million tons, the domestic availability is forecast at 125.9 million tons in the 2024/25 season. Disregarding the domestic consumption (87.03 million tons), the domestic surplus is at 38.9 million tons, the smallest since 2020/21 (34.33 million tons) – data from Conab. Exports, in turn, are estimated by Conab at 34 million tons between February/25 and January/26.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Year may register record production and lower international prices

The 2024/25 crop in Brazil started with concerns about the low volume of rains, but the favorable weather in the coming months may lead to a record soybean production.

As for the demand, national policies that encourage a higher blend of biodiesel into diesel oil may favor the demand for soybeans to process. In the international scenario, the sharp dollar valuation against Real leads the Brazilian product to be more attractive to international purchasers, which tends to favor exports.

Regarding prices, trades in US dollar to ship at Brazilian ports in the first semester of 2025 have been closed at lower quotations compared to those verified one year ago, and international values are also operating at lower levels.

In general, the market may also be focused on actions of the new government in the US, especially those concerning tariffs of imports, which can result in reactions of other countries and allocate purchasers to South America. However, in Argentina, the government indicated the possibility to reduce “retenciones” on agricultural products in 2025, which can encourage exports and boost the competition for soybean meal with Brazil, for instance.

The USDA projects that the Brazilian output may total the record of 169 million tons (40% of the global crop), while Conab estimates 166.2 million tons.

The USDA indicates that Brazil is expected to supply the global market with 105.5 million tons of soybean in the 2024/25 crop (+1.3% in relation to the previous season).

Among countries that process soybeans, the USDA indicates a smaller volume only for Brazil (-1.3%, at 54 million tons). Abiove (Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries), in turn, expects an increase of national crushing activities, at 57 million tons in 2025.

It is worth noting that the domestic consumption of soybean oil in Brazil is likely to reach the record of 9.53 million tons, being 5.3 million tons for the industry and 4.23 million tons allocated for food.

Regarding the soybean meal, the global consumption is estimated at 266.6 million tons. In Brazil, 21 million tons of soy meal may be consumed (+5%) and 20.5 million tons are likely to be shipped (-9.8%), according to data from the USDA.

 

US biofuel producers ramped up in Oct as profitability improved, data shows

  • Renewable diesel producers utilization at 77%, highest since July – AEGIS
  • Biodiesel producers utilization rate hit 89% in Oct, highest since June 2023
  • Better credit prices, stronger diesel demand spurred higher activity – analyst

U.S. renewable diesel and biodiesel producers ramped up operations in October to multi-month highs, helped by stronger margins for the biofuels, according to data compiled by advisory group AEGIS Hedging.

Renewable diesel producers utilized 77% of their total operable capacity in October, the highest since July 2024, the data showed. Biodiesel plant utilization rose to 89%, the highest since June 2023.

Rising utilization rates and improving margins are a welcome relief for the biofuels industry, after operators endured a rough start to 2024 as demand growth slowed, leaving the market oversupplied and forcing a number of biodiesel plant closures.

Both renewable diesel and biodiesel are more expensive to produce than diesel, making suppliers dependent on government incentives such as tax credits. Among the two, renewable diesel has emerged as the preferred fuel for suppliers, as it reaps better incentives and can substitute diesel entirely.

Total biodiesel production capacity fell 4.2% year-over-year to about 2 billion gallons in October, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday.

Renewable diesel output capacity rose nearly 19% year-over-year to 4.58 billion gallons in October, the EIA data showed, as most new biofuel plants opened in the past three years were geared towards it.

Still, oversupply pushed renewable diesel output capacity 6% lower in October from a record 4.90 billion gallons in June.

In addition to plant closures, profitability for the industry in October was boosted mainly by a surge in the value of credits required for compliance with federal biofuel mandates, said Zander Capozzola, vice president of renewable fuels at AEGIS.

D4 Renewable Identification Numbers, issued for biodiesel and renewable diesel production, rose from a low of 56 cents each in September to over 71 cents in October, improving profitability for making the fuels, Capozzola said.

Margins were also helped by stronger demand for diesel, which hit a one-year high in October, raising prices for both the conventional fuel and its alternatives, he said.

Prices for credits under the Low Carbon Fuel Standard program of California, where most biofuels are consumed in the U.S., also rose from below 60 cents each in Sept to over 70 cents each in October, according to AEGIS.

“You really had everything rowing in the right direction in October,” Capozzola said.

 

Indonesia May Limit Imports of Feed Wheat to Help Corn Farmers

Indonesia is seeking to limit imports of wheat for animal feed by setting purchase quotas, as the world’s second-biggest buyer of the grain is keen to help domestic corn farmers.

Both the commodities are used to make feed, but the Southeast Asian nation doesn’t grow any wheat. Local harvesting of corn is likely to begin next month, and the administration wants to ensure that imported grains don’t flood the market.

The government has scheduled meetings to set quotas for feed-grade wheat, Coordinating Minister for Food Affairs Zulkifli Hasan said at a briefing in Jakarta on Monday.

Any such decision could put further pressure on global wheat prices, which are trading near their lowest level since late August.

Indonesia’s total wheat imports are estimated to have risen to a record of 12.98 million tons in the 2023-24 season from 9.45 million tons a year earlier, according to the Foreign Agricultural Service of the USDA. Domestic consumption of feed wheat totaled 2.3 million tons during the period, it said.

The government last week increased the price at which Bulog, the state-owned food logistic company, purchases corn from farmers by 10% to 5,500 rupiah (34 cents) per kilogram to prevent a drop in local prices during the harvesting season, Hasan said.

 

Kazakhstan exported 3.7 mt of grain from Sept to end Dec, agriculture ministry says

Kazakhstan exported 3.7 million metric tons of new-harvest grain from September to the end of December last year, up 54% from the same period in 2023, the agriculture ministry said on Sunday.

The Central Asian country boosted exports to Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan. Exports to Iran increased by a factor of 30, the ministry said.

 

 

 

 

 

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