TOP HEADLINES
USDA Sees World 2024-25 Orange Production Declining by 1.4% Y/y
World production seen at 45.2m tons, 1.4% below the previous season’s amount, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service said in a report on its website.
- EU, Egypt and US crops are all seen smaller than last season
- Brazil crop seen 5.7% bigger vs year ago
- Global orange juice ending stocks seen contracting 9.1% to 160m tons
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are down 8 1/2 in SRW, down 8 3/4 in HRW, down 4 in HRS; Corn is down 8; Soybeans down 5 1/4; Soymeal down $4.10; Soyoil up 0.58.
For the week so far wheat prices are up 16 3/4 in SRW, up 23 in HRW, up 23 in HRS; Corn is down 3; Soybeans down 16; Soymeal down $4.10; Soyoil up 0.46.
For the month to date wheat prices are up 6 1/2 in SRW, up 20 1/4 in HRW, up 20 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 23 3/4; Soybeans up 28 1/4; Soymeal down $16.30; Soyoil up 5.20.
Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 10 ringgit (+0.23%) at 4289.
China markets are closed for Holiday.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 71 Oats; 3 Corn; 262 Soybeans; 1,116 Soyoil; 1,462 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 30 were: SRW Wheat down 7,312 contracts, HRW Wheat down 3,659, Corn up 21,352, Soybeans down 3,723, Soymeal up 3,797, Soyoil down 20.
Brazil: Showers in central Brazil are heavy into next week and are making it much more difficult to harvest soybeans and plant corn. Quality concerns on soybeans and transportation issues are likely to develop as well. Southern areas are going through periods of scattered showers, but generally staying below normal in amounts across the state of Rio Grande do Sul, which will be harmful for filling corn and soybeans in that state.
Argentina: Rainfall has been disappointing for a lot of areas of the country lately, hitting only some lucky spots while others stay much drier. Areas in the east-central have seen very little rainfall over the last several weeks and are causing declines in soil moisture and crop conditions. Dry weather is expected through the weekend while temperatures will increase up near or over 100 degrees Fahrenheit again. The forecast for next week does have a couple of chances for rain over parched areas in the east-central, but confidence is low on any coverage or meaningful impact.
Northern Plains: It has been very warm this week, but cold air will arrive over the weekend as a clipper passes by to the north. The cold is likely to stick around the area and especially north in the Canadian Prairies through a good portion of February. Limited precipitation is expected with the weekend system and drought continues to be a major concern this winter. The weather pattern may be more favorable in February, but that is not a guarantee.
Central/Southern Plains: A system continues to develop in the region on Thursday, leaving early on Friday. Precipitation is heavier across the southeastern areas of the region, though showers have been widespread. Some flooding is possible in the southeast. The pattern will likely cause another large system to move through mid-late next week, though it may not be heavy.
Midwest: Temperatures remain above normal in most of the region this week. A larger system will move through Thursday and Friday with mostly rain and some snow on the northern edge. A clipper will move through this weekend into early next week and will bring a burst of milder air through, but it may take until another system moves through later next week to push the cold air through the entire region.
Lower Mississippi: Water levels are near the low-water mark in several spots along the Mississippi River, though southern areas have had enough rainfall to limit the fall on the river system there. Warmer air is causing some ice jams on some of the local rivers that feed the Mississippi. A larger storm system will move through Thursday and Friday and should bring through some meaningful precipitation to support water levels from falling too rapidly. Another storm system may do that next week as well.
Europe: Heavy rain has been in northwestern Europe since the weekend and continues on Thursday. Some needed precipitation also went through Spain and a couple more bursts of showers will move through there into the weekend. Systems have been falling apart as they head east, with limited showers in Italy or the southeast, where more rainfall is needed for winter wheat. The continent will be largely drier next week.
Black Sea: Wheat went dormant in good condition in the west, but poor condition in the east, particularly in southwestern Russia. Showers haven’t been heavy or consistent enough to boost soil moisture. A system that moves through early next week could be promising for some rain and snow, but much more is needed before wheat breaks dormancy this spring. There are no risks of significant cold for the next couple of weeks that would be a large concern for winter kill on exposed wheat. Instead, very warm temperatures in January have been a concern for weakening winter hardiness should a burst of cold air move in later this winter or spring.
Australia: Some spotty showers have moved through eastern areas this week and continue into the weekend. But most areas have stayed dry, which is not helpful for filling cotton and sorghum. Multiple areas of tropical activity are being watched across northern Australia that may bring some precipitation southward next week and beyond, but that is an uncertain prospect.
The player sheet for Jan. 30 had funds: net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 9,000 corn, buyers of 7,500 soybeans, sellers of 4,000 soymeal, and buyers of 3,000 soyoil.
TENDERS
- WHEAT SALE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries bought a total of 89,134 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S. and Canada in a regular tender that closed on Thursday.
- BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
PENDING TENDERS
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat from optional origins.
- RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
- RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
TODAY
US Sold 442.5K Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 1.4M of Corn: USDA
USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending Jan. 23.
- Soybean sales fell to 443k tons vs 1,493k in previous week
- All wheat sales rose to 480k tons vs 215k in previous week
- Corn sales fell to 1,404k tons vs 1,670k in previous week
US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country
The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Jan. 23, according to data on the USDA’s website.
- Top buyer of soybeans: China with 145k tons
- Top buyer of corn: Japan with 539k tons
- Top buyer of wheat: Philippines with 86k tons
US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country
The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Jan. 23, according to data on the USDA’s website.
- Mexico bought 11.8k tons of the 33.6k tons of pork sold in the week
- Mexico and China combined for 23k tons of the 33.6k tons of pork sold in the week
- South Korea led in beef purchases
LIVESTOCK SURVEY: US Cattle Herd Seen Shrinking to 86.5M Head
The US cattle herd as of Jan. 1 seen falling 0.7% from the same time a year ago, according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of four analysts.
- That would be the lowest Jan. 1 level since 1951, and the sixth consecutive year of contraction
- Beef cows seen down 0.6% y/y and dairy cows seen up by 0.3%
- The 2024 calf crop seen down 1.3% y/y to 33.15m head
USDA December soy crush seen at 217.6 million bushels, analysts say
The U.S. soybean crush likely rose in December to a record-high 6.529 million short tons, or 217.6 million bushels, according to analysts surveyed by Reuters ahead of a monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture report due on Monday.
If the average of eight analyst estimates is realized, it would be up 3.6% from the 210.0 million bushels crushed in November and up 6.6% from the December 2023 crush of 204.3 million bushels.
U.S. soybean processors have significantly increased crush capacity in recent years by expanding existing plants or building new ones to meet soaring demand for vegetable oil as a biofuel feedstock. Several of those new facilities came online in the past six months.
Crush estimates for December 2024 ranged from 214.0 million to 223.0 million bushels, with a median of 217.1 million bushels.
The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly fats and oils report at 2 p.m. CST (2000 GMT) on Monday, Feb. 3.
U.S. soyoil stocks as of Dec. 31 were estimated at 1.734 billion pounds, based on the average of estimates from six analysts.
The oil stocks estimate, if realized, reflects a 7.5% jump from the prior-month supply that totaled 1.613 billion pounds but a 4.9% decline from the end of December 2023, when stocks totaled 1.824 billion pounds. It would also be the tightest end-of-December oil supply on record dating back to 2015.
Estimates ranged from 1.680 billion to 1.775 billion pounds, with a median of 1.738 billion pounds.
The National Oilseed Processors Association said its members, which account for at least 95% of soybeans processed in the United States, crushed a record 206.604 million bushels in December. End-of-month oil stocks rose 14% to 1.236 billion pounds, the largest since July.
Argentina Should Get Rain in Feb., Halting Crop Declines: Bourse
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects enough rain to fall in February to put an end to a drought and halt the deterioration of soybean and corn crops, Chief Estimates Analyst Cecilia Conde said in a webinar.
- The rains would allow the exchange to affirm its current forecasts of 49.6m metric tons for soy and 49m tons for corn, Conde said
Argentine Soy, Corn, Wheat Estimates Jan. 30: Exchange
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.
- 2024-25 soybean planting reaches completion, while corn nears completion at 98.7%
- 2024-25 production estimates unchanged for both crops
SovEcon Cuts Russia’s Wheat Export Outlook on Crimped Margins
Russia’s wheat exports are set to drop sharply in the current season amid limited supplies and low profitability for shipments abroad, a major Black Sea grain consultancy said.
SovEcon lowered its outlook for the country’s wheat shipments in the 2024-25 season to 42.8 million tons. The updated figure is beneath the three-year average and about 2% below SovEcon’s earlier estimate. It’s also almost a fifth short of Russia’s exports last season, when they reached 52.4 million tons, the consultancy said.
Smaller Russian supplies are “expected to provide support to the global wheat market, tightening supply at a time when global balance sheets remain fragile,” SovEcon said.
Russia, the world’s top supplier of the grain, boosted exports of the grain to records in the early months of the season. That, coupled with a smaller crop, has left the nation with lower inventories later in the agricultural year. Russian export duties and lower global prices for the grain added to pressure on the profitability of flows abroad.
The group pegged the nation’s wheat exports in January at 2.1 million tons, the lowest since January 2022. The volumes are also well below the seasonal average of about 3 million tons, the consultancy said. Additionally, an export quota comes into effect on Feb. 15, until the end of the season in June.
“Russian wheat export operations remain barely profitable or in negative territory, limiting exporters’ ability to accelerate shipments in the near term,” the consultancy said. Without a “significant improvement” in margins, no substantial pickup in wheat exports is expected in the short term.
The US Department of Agriculture earlier this month forecast Russia’s wheat exports in the 2024-25 season at 46 million tons.
Ukraine’s Grain Exports for Season So far Up 10%; Dip in January
Ukraine’s total grain exports for the season that started in July 1 reached 25.5m tons, 10% more than the same time last year, the Agriculture Ministry said on its website.
- Grain exports in January alone totaled about 3.3m tons, nearly a third less than the same period last year
- The season’s exports so far include:
- 10.7m tons of wheat, up 19% y/y
- 2m tons of barley, up 47% y/y
- 12.3m tons of corn, down 1.5% y/y
Malaysia Jan. Palm Oil Exports -12.3% M/m: Intertek
Following is a summary of Malaysia’s Jan. palm oil exports according to Intertek Testing Services.
- Total exports for Jan. 2025: 1.192m tons
- Crude palm oil exports: 134,405 tons, 11.3% of total
- EU led all destinations for total exports: 299,578 tons
Brazil’s Rumo says conveyor belt at grain transshipment station caught fire
Brazilian logistics firm Rumo RAIL3.SA said on Thursday a conveyor belt at a key grain transshipment station in Mato Grosso state caught fire in the small hours of the day.
The fire occurred at a busy time in the season, when Brazil is harvesting a massive soybean crop and begins to ship it to importers like China.
Rumo said the fire has been controlled and operations have resumed normally, without providing details.
Eduardo Vanin, a soybean analyst with Agrinvest, said on a social media post that the Rumo facility is the most important rail link between farm country and the Santos port.
The transshipment station, located in Rondonopolis, handles some 1,500/2,000 trucks per day, or about 60,000 to 80,000 tons per day, according to the analyst.
US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Decline: USDA
Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 653k tons in the week ending Jan. 25 from 428k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.
- Barge shipments of corn rose 64% from the previous week
- Soybean shipments up 47.3% w/w
- St. Louis barge rates were $14.76 per short ton, unchanged from the previous week
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2025 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
Latest News & Market Commentary
ADM & Industry News
Happy Holidays From ADM Investor Services!
December 18, 2024
The Ghost in the Machine Q4 2024
November 15, 2024