Global Ag News for Jan 30.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Corn ethanol production up 30% and sustains the sector in a harvest with lower crushing

The increase in corn ethanol production has been fundamental in sustaining the growth of biofuel production in the Center-South of Brazil, in a season of falling sugarcane crushing. According to data presented on Tuesday, 28, by the Brazilian Sugarcane and Bioenergy Industry Association (Unica), ethanol production from corn rose by 30%, while ethanol produced from sugarcane fell by 1.8%.

By the end of the first half of January, 19.5% of the ethanol produced in the country was based on corn – the forecast is that this share will increase to between 23% and 24% by the end of the harvest in March, according to Unica. Sugarcane crushing has fallen by 4.85% so far this season, to 613.998 million tons.

“Corn ethanol has grown in areas where sugarcane wasn’t viable, such as the Midwest. It is complementary because it can be produced all year round and uses by-products, such as DDG, for animal feed,” explained Unica’s director of sector intelligence, Luciano Rodrigues.

The association highlighted the complementary role of corn ethanol and sugarcane ethanol. “The beauty of Brazil is that here we don’t live in a world of ‘or’, but of ‘and’. Corn ethanol has advanced without competing with sugarcane ethanol or sugar,” said Evandro Gussi, president of Unica.

According to Gussi, Brazil has unique conditions to lead global growth in ethanol production, especially in view of the projected demand for the use of biofuel in the manufacture of SAF, the sustainable aviation fuel. “If the projected volume of SAF had to come entirely from ethanol, we’re talking about almost 1 trillion liters. Even if the figure is 200 or 300 billion liters, we would still need to triple world production. And Brazil is the country best placed to lead this movement, with the capacity to grow without deforestation, without competing with food and maintaining a low carbon intensity,” he commented.

Unica’s director of sector intelligence also projected future gains in efficiency and productivity in the production of ethanol from both sugarcane and corn. “We hope that this integrated growth will directly benefit the consumer, guaranteeing a more sustainable and competitive energy matrix,” he concluded.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1/2 in SRW, down 1/4 in HRW, up 2 in HRS; Corn is down 2; Soybeans down 6 3/4; Soymeal down $1.50; Soyoil down 0.32.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 18 in SRW, up 20 1/2 in HRW, up 20 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 8 1/2; Soybeans down 2; Soymeal up $3.40; Soyoil down 0.57.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 10 1/2 in SRW, up 20 3/4 in HRW, up 20 in HRS; Corn is up 36 1/2; Soybeans up 43 3/4; Soymeal down $8.60; Soyoil up 4.22.

China markets are closed for Holiday.

Malaysian markets are closed for Holiday.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 71 Oats; 3 Corn; 262 Soybeans; 1,116 Soyoil; 1,462 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 29 were: SRW Wheat down 4,693 contracts, HRW Wheat down 3,568, Corn up 33,428, Soybeans up 11,530, Soymeal up 2,963, Soyoil up 3,701.

 

Brazil: Showers in central Brazil are increasing this week and are making it much more difficult to harvest soybeans and plant corn going into next week. Quality concerns on soybeans and transportation issues are likely to develop as well. Southern areas are going through periods of scattered showers, but generally staying below normal in amounts across the state of Rio Grande do Sul, which will be harmful for filling corn and soybeans in that state.

Argentina: Pockets of showers moved through the country over the weekend and another round went through early this week, but amounts were disappointing in a lot of areas. Only a few lucky spots were able to pick up meaningful rainfall, but did include the productive state of Cordoba. Areas in the east-central have seen very little rainfall over the last several weeks and are causing declines in soil moisture and crop conditions. Another wave of showers will move across the north on Wednesday, though those are mostly rangelands and not for row crops. Dry weather will follow going into the weekend while temperatures will increase. The extended forecast for next week does have a couple of chances for rain over parched areas in the east-central, but confidence is low on any coverage or meaningful impact.

Northern Plains: It continues to be very warm this week, but cold air will arrive over the weekend as a clipper passes by to the north. The cold is likely to stick around the area and especially north in the Canadian Prairies through a good portion of February. Limited precipitation is expected with the weekend system and drought continues to be a major concern this winter. The weather pattern may be more favorable in February, however.

Central/Southern Plains: A slow-developing system is moving into the region on Wednesday, but will take until Friday to leave. Precipitation will be heavier across the southeastern areas of the region, though showers should be widespread. It will likely have little effect on the soil moisture situation for most of the region outside of the southeast. The pattern will likely cause another large system to move through mid-late next week.

Midwest: Temperatures remain above normal in most of the region this week. A larger system will move through Thursday and Friday with mostly rain and some snow on the northern edge. A clipper will move through this weekend into early next week and will bring a burst of milder air through, but it may take until another system moves through later next week to push through the entire region. Warmer air may even win out over eastern areas next week.

Lower Mississippi: Water levels are falling near the low-water mark this week in several spots along the Mississippi River, though southern areas have had enough rainfall to limit the fall on the river system there. Warmer air is causing some ice jams on some of the local rivers that feed the Mississippi. A larger storm system will move through Thursday and Friday and should bring through some meaningful precipitation to support water levels from falling too rapidly.

 

The player sheet for Jan. 29 had funds: net buyers of 8,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 18,000 corn, buyers of 8,500 soybeans, buyers of 6,500 soymeal, and buyers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 89,134 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S. and Canada in a regular tender that closed on Thursday.
• SOFT WHEAT, DURUM SALE: Tunisia’s state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 100,000 metric tons of soft wheat and about 100,000 tons of durum in an international tender for the same volume on Wednesday
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat from optional origins
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice
• FAILED FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries said it received no offers for feed-quality wheat or barley in a simultaneous buy and sell auction that closed late on Wednesday. The ministry had sought 65,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Feb. 15 and arrive in Japan by March. 

PENDING TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan made no purchases in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of barley on Wednesday.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

TODAY

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 0.6% to 25.722M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 25.771 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.015m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.043m

 

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of three analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Jan. 23.

• Corn est. range 850k – 1,800k tons, with avg of 1,275k
• Soybean est. range 450k – 1,700k tons, with avg of 1,150k

 

Condition of 82% of winter wheat in Russia good or satisfactory – minister

The condition of 82% of winter wheat sown for harvest in Russia in 2025 is good or satisfactory, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said at the Russian Agronomic Conference on Wednesday.

“We assess 82% as being in a good or satisfactory condition. Of course anything can change, everything will depend on the weather,” she said.

The Agriculture Ministry said in a presentation that 27.8% or 5.3 million hectares of winter wheat crops were in good condition and 54.1% or 10.4 million hectares were in satisfactory condition.

Lut said winter crops were sown on 20 million hectares, including 19.2 million hectares of grain and 800,000 hectares of industrial crops, mainly winter rapeseed.

Deputy Agriculture Minister Andrei Razin said that “the situation with winter crops is difficult, especially in the southern and North Caucasian regions where we planted practically in dust, waiting a long time the rains to come, which has affected the quality of the winter crop area.” “But even so, we have not recorded any major losses as of today. The situation is improving in a several regions in the south and North Caucasus, there is some additional moisture,” he said.

 

Corn prices jumped 10,000 pesos after the reduction of withholding taxes

After the reduction of withholdings announced by the National Government last Friday, corn was the product with the highest volume traded in the local market, although significant improvements in the price had not yet been observed, until this Wednesday’s round, when the cereal jumped 10,000 pesos to reach a maximum of 225,000 pesos per ton for merchandise with delivery until January 31.

Sales with deferred delivery in March and April also showed increases but of lesser magnitude, around 5,000 pesos per ton, reaching 200,000 pesos per ton.

The rise of corn in the local market was in line with what happened in the Chicago market, where the futures of the main agricultural commodities again closed higher. There, the price reached the highest levels since October 2023 , strengthened by the lack of recent rains and the projections of dry weather and high temperatures in the main productive areas of our country.

However, the product that led the gains in Chicago was wheat, exceeding a 3% increase and reaching six-week highs, driven by the reduction in Russia’s export projection to 57 million tons for 2024/25, added to the reactivation of global demand.

In the local market, wheat maintained a limited trading, registering an identical number of demanders and open purchase positions.

“In terms of prices, increases were observed for the closest unloadings, being $ 210,000/t the proposal for the available and contractual tranche, which represented a respective increase of $ 10,000/t and $ 5,000/t between days for such positions, and without ruling out the possibility of improvements per lot. Regarding the forwards positions, for delivery in March, US$ 205/t were proposed again, with the offer in local currency also showing stability, reaching $ 215,000/t”, detailed from the Rosario Stock Exchange.

As for soybean, in an international context where operators were waiting for the decision of the US president, Donald Trump, on the imposition of tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, concerns about adverse weather conditions in Argentina led it to conclude with rises close to 1.5%.

In Argentina, the oilseed market was almost deserted due to the presence of only one buyer opening purchase conditions.

In this scenario, as detailed from the Rosario Stock Exchange, the value reached in the session for the mentioned positions was $ 305,000/ton, a fall of $ 5,000/ton compared to Tuesday, when it had reacted with a rise of 10,000 pesos per ton to reach the highest value of the year. “In the official registry SIO-Granos, concerted soybean operations are reflected around values of $ 315,000/ton”, clarifies the Rosario entity.

 

Russian Drones Attack Grain Storage Near Ukraine’s Danube Ports

On Thursday, Russian drones hit Ukrainian grain storage facilities in Izmail, a city on the River Danube near the border with Romania, says Governor of Odesa Region Oleh Kiper on Telegram.

This is the second consecutive day of Russian drone attacks on port infrastructure in Izmail, according to Kiper

 

LDC says Brazil soymeal cargo returned from port for reprocessing

A cargo of Louis Dreyfus Company soymeal destined for export from the southern Brazilian port of Paranagua was returned for reprocessing at one of the company’s local plants, the grain processor told Reuters on Wednesday.

LDC declined to provide details such as the timeline of the refusal, the size of the cargo and destination, or the nature of the issue with the cargo.

However, a person with knowledge of the matter said LDC’s soymeal was sent by trucks to the port but subsequently rejected last week for containing impurities.

Brazil’s ability to track agricultural commodities cargoes has come under heightened scrutiny after China suspended five local soybean exporters, citing product non-conformities earlier this month.

“The Louis Dreyfus Company clarifies that, with regard to the aforementioned cargo, given the absence of any type of adulteration or harmful agents, it carried out the procedure established in current legislation, returning the cargo for reprocessing,” the company said in a statement.

The port authority said since January, 44 trucks loaded with soymeal have been turned down due to the presence of extraneous materials such as sticks and pieces of unprocessed soybeans.

The port declined to name the companies responsible for the cargoes. In this case, there was no need to dispose of the loads, which may be returned to the origin for removal of the impurities.

Confirmation that LDC’s soymeal has been refused came after authorities at the port of Paranagua disclosed that 51 separate truck-loads carrying 2,200 tons of soymeal were rejected for “product adulteration”, without naming the companies involved.

LDC said none of its soy processing plants in the states of Parana, Mato Grosso and Goias had sent allegedly contaminated soymeal products to Paranagua. The source said the soymeal cargo’s origin was LDC’s factory in Ponta Grossa in the state of Parana.

 

India braces for warmer February, wheat crop at risk, sources say

India is set to see above-average temperatures in February, with key wheat- and rapeseed-growing states likely to see maximum temperatures up to 5 degrees Celsius above average on some days in a risk to crops, two weather bureau sources said.

As the world’s second biggest wheat producer, India is counting on a bumper harvest in 2025 to avoid costly imports, following three straight years of poor crop yields since 2022.

After a sharp, sudden rise in temperatures in February and March shrivelled the crop, India, also the world’s second-biggest wheat consumer, was forced to ban exports of the staple in 2022.

Higher temperatures during the grain formation stage could reduce yields for the fourth straight year, trimming overall production and forcing authorities to lower or remove the 40% import tax to facilitate imports to tide over shortages.

Maximum and minimum temperatures in northern, central, and eastern states are likely to be above normal in February, said a senior official at the India Meteorological Department, who did not wish to be identified ahead of the official announcement from the weather office.

The weather office is likely to issue its forecast for February on Friday.

“On a few days of February, maximum temperatures could rise 5 degrees Celsius above average in some states,” the official said.

India’s Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh states in the north, along with Madhya Pradesh in central India, form the country’s top wheat-growing regions.

“In the second half of February, daytime temperatures in the northern and northwestern parts of the country could see a sharp rise,” said another IMD official.

Winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas are planted from October to December and require cold weather conditions during their growth and maturity stages for optimal yields.

“If temperatures remain higher than normal for a prolonged period, it can negatively impact yields by creating moisture stress,” said Ashwini Bansod, vice president for commodities research at Phillip Capital India, a Mumbai-based brokerage.

Hot and unseasonably warm weather leads to lower production and sharp drawdowns in state reserves.

As a result, wheat prices hit a record 33,250 rupees ($384.05) per metric ton earlier this month.

Any drop in the rapeseed crop could force India, the world’s biggest vegetable oil importer, to step up its cooking oil imports, said a Mumbai-based trader with a global trade house.

The area under rapeseed, the country’s main oilseed crop, is already down from last year.

 

Brazil Farm-Machine Sales Seen Rising After 2024 Drop: Abimaq

Brazil farm-machine sales expected to rise 8% this year after a 20% drop in 2024, according to industry group Abimaq on Wednesday.

• Industry’s total revenue from agriculture machinery sales in the country hit 60.4 billion Brazilian reais ($10.3 billion) in 2024
  • Falling soybean, corn prices, along with high interest rates and crop losses, led to fewer purchases
• Abimaq maintains its forecast of 8% rise in farm-machinery sales this year, as larger grain crops should bring some profits to farmers after years of losses, said Pedro Estevão Bastos de Oliveira, president of agriculture machinery chamber

 

 

 

 

 

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