TOP HEADLINES
India’s Dec palm oil imports hit 9-month low as buyers prefer soyoil, dealers say
India’s palm oil imports in December plunged to their lowest in nine months as a rally in prices to a 2-1/2-year high prompted refiners to increase purchases of substitute soyoil that was available at a discount, five dealers said.
Lower palm oil imports by India, the world’s biggest buyer of vegetable oils, could weight on benchmark Malaysian palm oil prices FCPOc3, but support U.S. soyoil futures Boc2.
Palm oil imports plunged 40% in December from the previous month to 503,000 metric tons, the lowest since March 2023, according to estimates from dealers.
Soyoil imports in December rose 3% from a month earlier to 420,000 metric tons, the highest in four months, while sunflower oil imports fell 22% to 265,000 metric tons, dealers said.
Lower imports of palm oil and sunflower oil brought down the country’s total edible oil imports in December by 25% to 1.19 million tons, the lowest in three months, according to dealers’ estimates.
Indian buyers were actively switching from palm oil to soyoil after palm oil’s premium over soyoil surged in November and December, said Rajesh Patel, managing partner at GGN Research, an edible oil trader.
Palm oil usually trades at a discount to soyoil and sunflower oil, but falling stocks have lifted its prices above rival oils, whose supplies are abundant.
Palm oil has been holding a premium of more than $100 per ton over soyoil, which will encourage Indian buyers to reduce imports also in January, said Sandeep Bajoria, CEO of Sunvin Group, a vegetable oil brokerage.
Industry body the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India is likely to publish its data on December imports by mid-January.
India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, while it imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are down 1 in SRW, down 1 3/4 in HRW, down 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans down 5 1/2; Soymeal down $3.80; Soyoil down 0.02.
For the week so far wheat prices are down 1 3/4 in SRW, down 4 1/2 in HRW, down 7 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 4 1/4; Soybeans up 16 3/4; Soymeal up $5.60; Soyoil up 0.25.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 6 3/4 in SRW, down 9 1/4 in HRW, down 7 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans down 4; Soymeal down $0.80; Soyoil down 0.11.
Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans down 10 yuan; Soymeal down 17; Soyoil down 142; Palm oil down 166; Corn down 7 — Malaysian Palm is up 35.
Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 35 ringgit (+0.81%) at 4368.
There were changes in registrations (200 Soyoil, -95 Soymeal). Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 72 Oats; 17 Corn; 536 Soybeans; 1,079 Soyoil; 1,570 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 2 were: SRW Wheat up 3,349 contracts, HRW Wheat down 251, Corn up 17,567, Soybeans down 5,849, Soymeal up 257, Soyoil up 439.
Brazil: Widespread wet season showers continue in central Brazil, favorable for filling soybeans. Showers across the south are more sparse and infrequent in the forecast for the next couple of weeks, which could be a problem for filling soybeans in Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana and pollinating to filling corn in Rio Grande do Sul.
Argentina: Soil moisture is falling in many areas of the country and the forecast going forward is only calling for spotty, isolated showers in spots through at least mid-January. That should start leading to issues for early-planted corn that is pollinating to filling. It is still early for late-planted corn and soybeans to have major concerns, but issues may start to pop up with temperatures rising in the extended forecast.
Northern Plains: Streaks of light snow will move through over the next couple of days with potential for some heavier snow across the south this weekend. The region will be on the edge of some very cold air over the next couple of weeks with Montana getting warmer at times while the Dakotas stay colder. That could change depending on where clipper systems track through the region every couple of days through mid-January. They will bring some precipitation, but not enough to make a large impact on the ongoing drought situation.
Central/Southern Plains: Soil moisture is falling in the southwestern wheat areas, but drought has not set in yet. A system will bring widespread moderate precipitation this weekend that should be helpful, but will be heavier across eastern areas and come as a mix of precipitation types which may be hazardous. A round of cold air follows the system for next week. And several more may follow the next couple of weeks in the overall cold pattern. The cold could be hazardous for dormant winter wheat that is not covered by snow.
Midwest: Lake-effect snow continues through Saturday and a small system will traverse the region with light snow into Friday. But a big system will move along the Ohio River Sunday into Monday with a mix of precipitation types, which should be heavy closer to the river. Heavy freezing rain and snow could cause issues. That will be followed by a burst of very cold air that should continually be reinforced through at least mid-January in several bursts from clipper systems moving through every so often. Areas without adequate snow cover could see some winter kill on wheat.
Lower Mississippi: Water levels remain above the low-water mark in most of the system, allowing for easy transportation. Active weather with a system moving through Sunday and Monday should keep water levels elevated for a while.
Europe: A front continues to be pushed southward through the continent by a few systems this week, bringing widespread showers to most areas. Spain and Hungary need more rainfall for vegetative winter wheat and some areas are too wet in northern Europe. Otherwise, overall conditions are favorable for most areas.
Black Sea: Wheat went dormant in good condition in the west, but poor condition in the east, particularly in southwestern Russia. Scattered showers have been more prevalent since crops went dormant. Systems will continue to provide periodic showers through January, a good sign for building at least some moisture this winter.
Australia: The country is in an overall dry pattern that continues through next week with limited showers. Conditions continue to slowly worsen for developing cotton and sorghum. The pattern may turn a little more active with showers starting next weekend, though that is uncertain.
The player sheet for Jan. 2 had funds: net sellers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 11,000 soybeans, buyers of 4,000 soymeal, and sellers of 2,000 soyoil.
TENDERS
- WHEAT SHIPMENT RECEIVED: Egypt’s state grain buyer, Mostakbal Misr for Sustainable Development, received its first imported wheat shipment on Dec. 30, port data seen by Reuters showed. The 28,000 metric ton shipment arrived in Alexandria port onboard the Mikhail Nenashev. Further details, including the seller and the price, have not been disclosed.
PENDING TENDERS
- RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
- RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
TODAY
US Soybean Crushings at 210M Bushels in November: USDA
USDA releases monthly oilseed report on website.
- Crushing 5% higher than same period last year
- Crude oil production 7.1% higher than same period last year
- Crude and once-refined oil stocks up 0.9% y/y
US Corn Used for Ethanol at 464.9M Bu in November
The following is a summary of US corn consumption for fuel and other products, according to the USDA.
- Corn for ethanol was 1.7% higher than in November 2023
- DDGS production rose to 1.836m tons
DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 2.4% to 23.639M Bbl
According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.
- Analysts were expecting 23.308 mln bbl
- Plant production at 1.111m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.082m
GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report
Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of four analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Friday for week ending Dec. 26.
- Corn est. range 800k – 1,450k tons, with avg of 1,158k
- Soybean est. range 500k – 1,050k tons, with avg of 783k
StoneX raises forecast for Brazil’s 2024-2025 soybean crop
Brazil’s 2024-2025 soybean crop is expected to reach 171.4 million metric tons, consultancy firm StoneX said on Thursday, increasing its forecast from the 166.2 million tons it had estimated in December.
The upward revision was driven by higher expectations for the area planted with the oilseed in the South American country and increased yields, according to StoneX, which estimated production to be 14.4% higher than in the previous season.
Farmers in Brazil, the world’s largest soy producer and exporter, are set to see yields recover in the current cycle after grappling with adverse weather in 2023/24, which affected overall production of the oilseed.
“Everything points to soybean production exceeding 170 million tons, but the weather remains on the radar as there is a possibility of excessive rainfall at the end of the cycle, which could cause some damage,” StoneX analyst Ana Luiza Lodi said.
Soybean exports in the season were forecast to hit 107 million tons, up from the 103 million tons the consultancy had projected before.
StoneX also slightly increased its estimate for Brazil’s 2024-2025 total corn production to 128.6 million tons from 128.3 million tons.
Indonesia Sees B40 Biofuel Policy in Full Force in 1.5 Months
The industry needs an estimated 1.5 months to clear out existing B35 stockpiles and adjust infrastructure to run the B40 biodiesel policy, according to Deputy Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Yuliot Tanjung in Jakarta.
- B40 policy took effect on Jan. 1, he says
- Ministry to hold briefing on Monday on the industry’s full-year results, including on the biodiesel blending policy
- Producers confirmed they could meet expected B40 fuel standards, he says
- Govt to closely monitor B40 program to ensure subsidies are only given to public services, says Dadan Kusdiana, secretary general of the ministry
- B40 implementation regulation is being finalized
- Govt to penalize violations in implementing the B40 policy
Brazil corn production slightly down on dry weather prospects across first crop regions
2024/25 Brazil: 127.2 [119.3–134.1] MILLION TONS, DOWN <1% FROM LAST UPDATE
Offsetting effects of persistent dryness in the South and positive weather conditions in the Central-West/Northeast fractionally lower 2024/25 Brazil total corn production to 127.2 [119.3–134.1] million tons. Our long-term weather outlook through February remains favorable, supporting overall high yield potential. Our current median estimate is 0.2 million tons above the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 127 million tons (released on 10 December), which assumes total corn sowings at 22.3 million hectares and a national level yield of 5.70 tons per hectare (tph) (vs. LSEG Agriculture Research’s 20.7 million hectares and 6.13 tph, respectively). Brazil’s agriculture state agency (CONAB) has lately pegged its total corn production and area at 119.6 million tons and 21.0 million hectares, respectively (released on 12 December).
Brazil saw mostly less favorable weather conditions during the second half of December compared to early December and much of November. Dryness prevailed throughout many portions of the South and the southern parts of the Southeast where most of the country’s first crop corn is grown. The top first corn producer Rio Grande do Sul, in particular, received less than 20 mm of rain over the past two weeks (up to 60 mm below normal), extending the dryness streak that largely began in mid-November. The majority of the South/Southeast crop regions are still maintaining decent soil moisture levels, but there is no end in sight to dryness through late January, potentially increasing yield risks. On the other hand, the second crop safrinha corn (which accounts for more than 75% of Brazil’s total corn output) production outlooks remain positive, as active soil moisture recoveries continue across the top Central-West producing states such as Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goiás. These core regions are expected to receive another round of widespread precipitation next week amid mild weather, which should help set up healthy early season conditions for the second crop sowing which typically begins in February once soybeans are harvested.
As of 29 December, Brazil’s first corn was 80.8% planted nationally according to the latest CONAB crop progress report (released on 30 December), on par with last year’s 80.4% though slightly behind the 5-year average of 84%. The LSEG Weather Research team’s latest ENSO outlook suggests mostly favorable temperature and precipitation outlooks for Brazil’s major crop growing regions through February, supporting overall positive yield outlooks. Barring any unexpected extreme weather events, this season’s corn production potential should be well above last season’s output.
Argentina’s agro export revenue up 58% in December, 27% in 2024
Argentina’s farm sector brought in a total $1.97 billion through exports in December, a 58% increase compared to the some month a year earlier, the CIARA-CEC chamber of oilseed and grains crushers and exporters said.
Full-year revenues were up 27% from the previous year, driven by an increased grain crop, the chamber said in a statement.
The foreign exchange inflows in December were “the result of a good pace of producer grain sales, the start of the wheat and barley harvests, as well as a solid soybean crushing program for shipments of soy meal and soy oil,” CIARA-CEC added.
S Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Decline: USDA
Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 945k tons in the week ending Dec. 28 from 796k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.
- Barge shipments of corn rose 18.8% from the previous week
- Soybean shipments up 23.9% w/w
- St. Louis barge rates were $15.36 per short ton, a decline of $0.36 from the previous week
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