Global Ag News for Jan 29.2025

TOP HEADLINES

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3 1/4 in SRW, up 5 3/4 in HRW, up 5 in HRS; Corn is up 5 1/4; Soybeans up 6 1/2; Soymeal up $3.40; Soyoil down 0.32.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 4 1/2 in SRW, up 7 1/4 in HRW, up 7 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 4; Soybeans down 4 1/2; Soymeal unchanged; Soyoil down 0.41.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 3 in SRW, up 7 1/2 in HRW, up 7 in HRS; Corn is up 32; Soybeans up 41; Soymeal down $11.90; Soyoil up 4.45.

China markets are closed for Holiday.  Malaysian markets are closed for Holiday.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 71 Oats; 3 Corn; 262 Soybeans; 1,116 Soyoil; 1,462 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 28 were: SRW Wheat down 422 contracts, HRW Wheat up 227, Corn up 11,276, Soybeans up 9,088, Soymeal up 3,458, Soyoil up 8,880.

 

Brazil: Showers in central Brazil are increasing this week and make it much more difficult to harvest soybeans and plant corn going into next week. Quality concerns on soybeans and transportation issues are likely to develop as well. Southern areas are going through periods of scattered showers, but generally staying below normal in amounts across the state of Rio Grande do Sul, which will be harmful for filling corn in that state.

Argentina: Pockets of showers moved through the country over the weekend and another round went through southern areas on Monday, but amounts were disappointing in a lot of areas. Only a few lucky areas were able to pick up meaningful rainfall. Areas in the east-central have seen very little rainfall over the last several weeks and are causing declines in soil moisture and crop conditions. A couple more waves of showers will move across the north through Wednesday, though those are mostly rangelands and not for row crops. Dry weather will follow going into the weekend while temperatures will increase. The extended forecast for next week does have chances for rain over parched areas in the east-central, but confidence is low on any meaningful impact.

Northern Plains: Very warm weather will be in place this week, but cold air will arrive over the weekend as a clipper passes by to the north. The cold is likely to stick around the area and especially north in the Canadian Prairies through a good portion of February. Limited precipitation is expected with the weekend system and drought continues to be a major concern this winter. The weather pattern may be more favorable in February, however.

Central/Southern Plains: A slow-developing system will move into the region on Wednesday but may take until Friday to leave. Precipitation will be heavier across the southeastern areas of the region, though showers could be widespread. It will likely have little effect on the soil moisture situation for most of the region outside of the southeast. The pattern will likely cause another large system to move through next week.

Midwest: Temperatures remain above normal in most of the region this week, despite another clipper moving through the Great Lakes with snow on Tuesday with some more breezy winds. A larger system will move through Thursday and Friday with a widespread mix of rain and snow. A clipper will move through this weekend into early next week and will bring a burst of milder air through, but it may take until another system moves through later next week to push colder air through the entire region.

Lower Mississippi: Water levels will fall near the low-water mark this week in several spots along the Mississippi River, though southern areas have had enough rainfall to limit the fall on the river system there. Warmer air is causing some ice jams on some of the local rivers that feed the Mississippi. A larger storm system will move through Thursday and Friday and should bring through some meaningful precipitation to support water levels from falling too rapidly.

 

The player sheet for Jan. 28 had funds: net buyers of 5,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 6,000 corn, buyers of 1,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,500 soymeal, and buyers of 1,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

  • CORN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 132,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to South Korea for shipment in the 2024/25 marketing year.
  • WHEAT SALE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 50,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday.
  • SOFT WHEAT, DURUM TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency has issued an international tender to purchase about 100,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat and around 100,000 tons of durum wheat.
  • WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 89,134 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S. and Canada in a regular tender that will close late on Thursday. 

PENDING TENDERS

  • WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat from optional origins. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan purchased 50,000 tons in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday.
  • FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
  • FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries said it would seek 65,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Feb. 15 and arrive in the country by March 13. This would be done via a simultaneous buy and sell auction that will be held on Jan. 29, it said in a statement.
  • RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

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TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Jan. 24 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

  • Production seen lower than last week at 1.043m b/d
  • Stockpile avg est. 25.771m bbl vs 25.874m a week ago

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 1.50 Million Tns In January – Anec

  • BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.50 MILLION TNS IN JANUARY VERSUS 2.22 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST- ANEC
  • BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 3.35 MILLION TNS IN JANUARY VERSUS 3.53 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST- ANEC
  • BRAZIL WHEAT EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 660,746 TNS IN JANUARY VERSUS 689,278 TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST- ANEC
  • BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.85 MILLION TNS IN JANUARY VERSUS 1.81 TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST- ANEC

 

EU 2024/25 soybean imports higher at 8.03 mln T by Jan 26, rapeseed 3.57 mln T

European Union soybean imports so far, in the 2024/25 season that started in July, had reached 8.03 million metric tons by Jan. 26, compared with 7.11 million tons a year earlier, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday.

EU rapeseed imports in the same period totalled 3.57 million tons, against 3.30 million a year earlier.

However, the Commission said export data for Italy had not been complete for the past seven weeks. It also noted that export data for France had not been complete since the beginning of 2024, and export data for Bulgaria and Ireland had been incomplete since the beginning of marketing year 2023/24.

 

EU 2024/25 soft wheat exports at 12.18 million T by Jan 26

Soft wheat exports from the European Union since the start of the 2024/25 season in July had reached 12.18 million metric tons by Jan. 26, compared with 19.35 million a year earlier, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday.

EU barley exports totalled 2.47 million tons, against 3.49 million tons in the corresponding period in 2023/24, while EU maize imports were at 11.41 million tons, against 10.93 million tons.

However, the Commission said export data for Italy has been incomplete for the past seven weeks. For France, data has been incomplete since the beginning of 2024 while export data for Bulgaria and Ireland has been incomplete since the beginning of the 2023/24 marketing year.

 

Russia’s 2024-2025 grain exports set to fall by 20%

Russia’s grain export potential for the 2024-2025 season is 57 million metric tons, compared with the record exports of 72 million tons in the previous season, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said on Wednesday.

Lut said Russian companies exported 37 million tons in the first half of the export season and that an almost 70% cut in export quotas for the second half of the season was to protect the domestic market.

“We have already set export quotas to ensure the internal market’s needs are met,” Lut told an agriculture conference in Moscow.

The total sowing area for the 2025 harvest in Russia will increase by 1 million hectares to 84 million hectares, Lut said.

She added agriculture producers would receive 42 billion roubles ($429.45 million) in government subsidies in the form of short-term loans.

According to Lut, 82% of the winter grain crop is in good condition.

Grain crops were hit last year when Russia’s traditional breadbasket southern regions suffered from extreme weather, including early spring frosts and drought.

 

Export duty on Russian wheat falls 5.7% to 4,430.1 rubles per tonne on Jan 29 – Agriculture Ministry

The export duty on Russian wheat has fallen 5.7% to 4,430.1 rubles per tonne on January 29 from 4,699.6 rubles per tonne in the previous duty period, the Russian Agriculture Ministry said.

The duty on barley has risen to 3,407.8 rubles per tonne from 3,101.9 rubles per tonne, and the duty on corn has fallen to 4,659.1 rubles per tonne from 5,041.7 rubles per tonne.

The duties are based on indicative prices of $240.90 per tonne for wheat against $240 per tonne the previous duty period, $215.30 per tonne for barley versus $207.60 per tonne, and $233 per tonne for corn against $234.60 per tonne.

 

Lack of snow cover increases winter-kill risks to Russian wheat production

LSEG Commodities Research & Forecast

2025/26 RUSSIA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 80.3 [78.7-84.3] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

Recent warmer weather keeps 2025/26 Russian wheat production at 80.3 [78.7-84.3] million tons (MMT), 55.3 MMT of winter wheat and 25.0 MMT of spring wheat, but we have a downward bias to the current winter wheat production number.

The past two weeks featured warm temperatures throughout the country with more precipitation noted in the East. But little or no snow coverage is noted in the Central, Southern and North Caucasian Districts, which poses a concern for winterkill damage in the region.

According to the latest weather forecast, temperatures in the European parts will be higher than usual over the next week with below normal precipitation. In the next two weeks no major temperature changes are in sight but any cold snaps which might occur later in February can lead to significant loss of winter crops, especially regions not fully covered by snow. We will monitor satellite imagery and weather conditions in the upcoming weeks and update our forecast accordingly. Our estimate does not include the occupied Ukrainian Oblasts.

 

Central, South Russia to See Early Spring Sowing: Weather Agency

Spring sowing in some key Russian agricultural regions is forecast to start on average 5-7 days ahead of historic norms, according to a presentation made by Roman Vilfand, head of research at the state-run Russian Hydrometeorological Centre.

  • “In most regions in the European part of Russia, start of the spring sowing is expected 5-7 days earlier than multi-year average, in the Asian part of Russia it will be similar to multi-year averages”: presentation
    • The first region to begin spring sowing is Crimea, some time in the first ten days of March, Vilfand said at the All-Russian Agronomic Meeting in Moscow.
  • The Russian Hydrometeorological Centre will review the forecast next month
  • The weather at the start of the winter sowing was unseasonably hot, the soil was dehydrated, creating risks for the winter crop; however, a mild winter has mitigated those risks, Vilfand said
  • Risks of frost at the start of spring sowing remain

 

South Africa 2025 Corn Plantings Seen 0.4% Bigger Than 2024

Commercial growers plan to plant 2.65 million hectares of land in the 2024-25 season, 0.4% more than in 2023-24, the South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee says in a statement.

  • Preliminary area estimate for white corn is 1.6 million hectares, 2.9% higher y/y
  • For yellow corn, the preliminary area estimate is 1.05 million hectares, 3.2% lower y/y
  • The expected production of wheat for the 2024 season is 1.925 million tons compared with the previous forecast of 1.935 million tons

 

Brazil port finds 51 ‘adulterated’ soymeal truck cargos

The Parana state port authority, which oversees operations at the port of Paranagua and Antonina in Southern Brazil, said sand had been detected in soymeal cargoes during an inspection, according to a statement sent to Reuters on Tuesday.

That is considered “product adulteration”, the statement said.

The Association of Terminals of the Paranagua Export Corridor (ATEXP), which handled the inspection, contacted the other oversight agencies after detecting the issue, the statement added.

The European Union is the main destination for Brazilian soymeal exports.

A spokesperson for the port could not immediately confirm the soymeal cargo’s destination, but said a total of 51 trucks had been identified as carrying the adulterated soymeal, which is used as animal feed.

The port declined to disclose the name of the exporter or exporters, citing data protection laws. The port said the trucks had come from Mato Grosso state.

The adulteration incident comes as China stopped receiving Brazilian soybean shipments after certain cargoes showed non-conformity.

The Port of Paranagua enforced new cargo inspection control rules last year, the statement added, “to ensure maximum safety and quality of the products handled.”

The public port said that the responsibility for the cargo lies on the exporter and the terminal, and not on the port authority

 

Cargill to Shut Turkey Plant as Prices Fall

Agriculture giant Cargill plans to close its 1,100-person turkey plant in Springdale, Ark., in August. The closure follows a steep drop in turkey meat prices over the past year as consumer demand plummets. Cargill said last year it planned to cut about 5% of its workforce and has taken a number of steps to shrink its meat business, such as selling a California beef plant and a sausage facility in Tennessee. The company said it will shift turkey processing to plants in Missouri and Virginia. Turkey, like eggs, jumped in price in 2022 when the bird flu outbreak hit U.S. farms. Unlike eggs, prices have come down as many consumers flock to other meats. “It is the right move to make for the future of our turkey business,” the company said in a statement. “Turkey remains an essential part of Cargill’s protein portfolio.”

 

 

 

 

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