Global Ag News for Jan 28.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Trump Urged to Delay Gasoline Shift That Boosts Ethanol

President Trump is being pressed to further delay a gasoline policy change meant to boost sales of corn-based ethanol, after Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine cited concerns about necessary fueling infrastructure being installed in time.

  • DeWine in a Jan. 24 letter asked the acting head of the Environmental Protection Agency to postpone the shift until “no earlier than spring of 2026”
  • Under a change sought by Midwestern governors in early 2022 and an EPA rule finalized early last year, conventional E10 gasoline no longer enjoys a special exemption from volatility limits in eight Midwest states, putting it on the same footing as higher-ethanol E15 and allowing both varieties to use the same raw gasoline blendstock
  • NOTE: Because the change compels construction of storage tanks and other fuel infrastructure, oil industry leaders have warned of higher costs and disruption, while pushing for a broader legislative solution in Congress
  • DeWine said he supports legislation “that eliminates the state-by-state approach and reduces risks of supply disruptions and the creation of fuel islands”
    • “As a federal legislative fix has not come to fruition, we have continued to hear concerns from Ohio’s petroleum industry about their ability to install the necessary infrastructure to comply” by a summer deadline
  • Request sets up an early test of Trump’s approach to biofuel policy, with ethanol backers complaining the shift has already been slow-walked

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3/4 in SRW, down 1/4 in HRW, up 2 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1/2; Soybeans down 2; Soymeal down $1.40; Soyoil up 0.31.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 9 1/2 in SRW, down 8 in HRW, down 8 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 4 3/4; Soybeans down 13 1/2; Soymeal down $6.10; Soyoil up 0.21.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 15 1/4 in SRW, down 6 1/4 in HRW, down 7 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 24; Soybeans up 32 1/2; Soymeal down $17.50; Soyoil up 4.95.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 61 ringgit (+1.45%) at 4279. Malaysia markets will be closed on 1/29 & 1/30 for Holiday.

China markets are closed for Holiday.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 71 Oats; 3 Corn; 262 Soybeans; 1,116 Soyoil; 1,462 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 27 were: SRW Wheat up 12,516 contracts, HRW Wheat down 609, Corn up 2,720, Soybeans down 2,525, Soymeal down 20, Soyoil down 3,259.

 

Brazil: Isolated showers in central Brazil allowed producers to do some field work last week. But those showers will increase this week and make it much more difficult to do so, delaying soybean harvest and corn planting. Southern areas are going through periods of scattered showers, but generally staying below normal in amounts across the state of Rio Grande do Sul, which will be harmful for filling corn in that state.

Argentina: Pockets of showers moved through the country over the weekend, though most areas have seen either little or no rainfall for several weeks now. Only a few lucky areas were able to pick up meaningful rainfall. A couple more waves of showers will move across the country through Wednesday, though mostly across the north. Dry weather will follow going into next week. Overall soil moisture and crop conditions should continue the downward trend, especially with temperatures in the 90s going into next week.

Northern Plains: Very warm weather will be in place this week, but cold air will arrive over the weekend as a clipper passes by to the north. Limited precipitation is expected with this system and drought continues to be a major concern this winter. The weather pattern may be more favorable in February, however.

Central/Southern Plains: Scattered showers developed in eastern Texas over the weekend, but most areas stayed colder and dry. A slow-developing system will move into the region on Wednesday but may take until Friday to leave. Precipitation will be heavier across the southeastern areas of the region, though showers could be widespread. It will likely have little effect on the soil moisture situation for most of the region outside of the southeast. The pattern may allow for another large system to move through next week.

Midwest: Some light snow moved across the north this weekend, but most areas stayed dry while temperatures rose. A couple of clippers will move through the Great Lakes with snow that could be enhanced by lake-effect and also bring through some breezy winds. A larger system is likely to move through late week and weekend with a widespread mix of mostly rain and some snow. A clipper will move through this weekend into early next week and will bring a burst of milder air through, but it may take until another system moves through later next week to push colder air through the entire region.

Lower Mississippi: Water levels will fall near the low-water mark this week in several spots, though southern areas have had enough rainfall to limit the fall on the river system there. A larger storm system will move through late this week and should bring through some meaningful precipitation to support water levels from falling too rapidly.

 

The player sheet for Jan. 27 had funds: net sellers of 4,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 5,000 corn, sellers of 2,500 soybeans, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and sellers of 1,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

  • CORN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 139,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico for shipment in the 2024/25 marketing year.
  • RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 PENDING TENDERS

  • MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
  • FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
  • FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries said it would seek 65,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Feb. 15 and arrive in the country by March 13. This would be done via a simultaneous buy and sell auction that will be held on Jan. 29, it said in a statement.

 

 

Hands Across The World

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.247m Tons of Corn for Export, 729k of Soybeans

In week ending Jan. 23, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

  • Wheat: 485k tons vs 262k the previous wk, 284k a yr ago
  • Soybeans: 729k tons vs 979k the previous wk, 913k a yr ago
  • Corn: 1,247k tons vs 1,542k the previous wk, 926k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Jan. 23

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Jan. 23 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

  • Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 141k tons of the 729k total inspected
  • Japan was the top destination for corn inspections, and also led in wheat

 

Soybean harvest is still the slowest in the historical series, says AgRural

The harvest of Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean crop advanced with a little more momentum last week, driven once again by Paraná. A survey by AgRural shows that 3.9% of the area estimated for Brazil had been harvested by Thursday 23rd, the lowest rate for this time of year since the 2020/21 harvest. A week earlier, 1.7% of the area was harvested. Last year’s figure was 10.8%. “In Mato Grosso, the reduction in rainfall has helped, but the delay in the state is still great and the soybeans are arriving at the warehouses with high humidity,” the consultancy said in a note.

Paraná remained in the lead, followed by Mato Grosso do Sul. In both states, the pace of the harvest is favored by the drier weather of recent weeks, which has shortened the crop cycle, but also reduced yields in some regions, said AgRural.

Last week, the consultancy updated its crop forecast to 171 million tons, 500,000 tons lower than the estimate at the beginning of December due to productivity cuts in Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul. However, the reduction was offset by an increase in Mato Grosso, which has an excellent crop, despite the possible loss of grain quality if the rains fall again steadily and without sunny spells during the month of February.

Harvesting of the 2024/25 first corn crop has reached 9% of the area cultivated in the Center-South of Brazil, compared to 4% a week earlier and 12% a year ago, according to data collected by AgRural. Work continues to be concentrated in the southern states, which plant and harvest earlier.

Planting of the estimated area for the 2025 corn crop in the Center-South of Brazil was 2.2%, compared to 0.3% a week earlier and 11.4% a year ago. With Mato Grosso still slow due to the delay in the soybean harvest, Paraná is the one pulling the pace, according to the survey.

 

Argentina Farmers May Sell 5m Tons of Soybean Stocks on Tax Cut

The Argentine government’s cuts to crop export taxes through June 30 could spur farmers to sell about half of their soybean stockpiles of ~10m metric tons, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in a report.

  • “As well as driving sales of the current crop, the lower tax rate creates a clear incentive to sell some of their accumulated soybean stocks from past seasons”: exchange
    • NOTE: The bulk of the current soy crop will be harvested in 2Q
    • The government cut the rate to 26% from 33% on beans, and to 24.5% from 31% on meal/oil
  • Lower taxes will benefit beleaguered farmers to the tune of $1.5b, exchange says

 

Russia Grain Exports Seen Below 50M Tons on Weather: Union

Russia’s grain exports in the 2024/2025 season may drop below 50 million tons because of weather risks, Arkady Zlochevsky, president of the Russian Grain Union, said at a briefing organized by state news agency TASS in Moscow.

  • “We are lowering our outlook below 50m tons, to around 47-48 million tons”: Zlochevsky
    • Of total, wheat exports may reach 41-42 million tons
  • Grain crop seen below last year’s on weather risks and lower productivity
    • “In the absolutely best case, we’ll see a crop at around 125 million tons, but to reach this figure, we need to sow in the spring and we need to have zero losses of winter crops”
    • Around 37% of winter crop started season in less than good conditions, while normally the share is about 15%-20%
    • “It’s a lot but it’s not critical, it just indicates the level of risk for the crop”
    • Unseasonably warm winter has so far supported the crop as thawing snow provides enough water, yet it is unclear what moisture reserves the crop may get in spring

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Sellers are willing to trade, and liquidity increases, but prices are firm

The pace of wheat trades increased slightly last week in the domestic market, favored by the fact that sellers are willing to trade, aiming to sell off part of inventories and open room in warehouses to receive the product from the new crop. In spite of the supply increase, quotations continue firm, since international prices rose.

As for imports, data from Secex indicate that the total amounted 412.8 thousand tons up to January 20 (12 producing days), against 614 thousand tons in the entire month of January last year. The daily average of imports is at 34.4 thousand tons, 23.3% more than in January/24.

Despite the high supply, quotations remained firm last week. According to data from Cepea, between January 17 and 24, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) moved up 0.57% in Rio Grande do Sul, 0.8% in Santa Catarina and 0.04% in Paraná. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), quotations rose 2.8% in São Paulo, 0.29% in Santa Catarina, 1% in Paraná and 0.74% in Rio Grande do Sul. Dollar quotations dropped 2.47% against Real in the same comparison, at BRL 5.912 on January 24.

 

 

 

 

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