Global Ag News for Jan 27.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Frigid weather likely damaged US winter wheat crop, meteorologist says

Frigid temperatures this week likely killed as much as 15% of the winter wheat crop in parts of the U.S. Plains and Midwest, the Commodity Weather Group said on Friday, in an ominous sign for U.S. wheat production.

A blast of Arctic air covered much of the United States earlier this week, sending temperatures plunging across key wheat areas that have seen limited snowfall this winter.

Without that protective layer of snow, winter wheat was vulnerable to freeze damage or “winterkill” as temperatures fell to or below minus 5 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 21 Celsius), said Joe Woznicki, an agricultural meteorologist with the Commodity Weather Group.

Those conditions impacted about 65% of the nation’s total hard red winter wheat belt on Tuesday from Montana down through northern Texas, including parts of top producer Kansas.

This week’s polar vortex may also have affected about 35% of the soft red winter wheat belt, including Illinois, Indiana, southern Michigan and Ohio.

Hard red winter wheat is grown in the Plains and used to make bread. Soft red winter wheat is produced in the Midwest and used in cookies and snack foods.

“If all the wheat was well-established, you would expect losses of about 10% in spots that saw winterkill,” Woznicki said, cautioning that “these are very rough estimates.”

Losses might be closer to 15% in areas where wheat crops were poorly established or where dry soils left plants more vulnerable to the cold, he said.

How much crop ultimately will be lost is not yet known. Freeze injury to winter wheat is notoriously difficult to assess until dormant crops resume growth in the spring.

But using last year’s production figures for wheat harvested in 2024 as an estimate, a 10% loss on 65% of the hard red winter acreage works out to 52 million bushels, or 6.7% of the crop, CWG said. A 10% loss on 35% of the soft red wheat acreage would be 12 million bushels, or 3.5% of production.

U.S. farmers planted 34.1 million acres of winter wheat for harvest in 2025, up 2% from the prior year. The United States is the world’s No. 5 wheat exporter.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3 in SRW, down 2 3/4 in HRW, down 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 4; Soybeans down 6 3/4; Soymeal down $2.10; Soyoil down 0.48.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 2 1/4 in SRW, up 8 1/4 in HRW, up 11 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 3/4; Soybeans up 15 1/4; Soymeal up $5.60; Soyoil down 0.95.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 10 1/2 in SRW, down 2 1/2 in HRW, down 1 in HRS; Corn is up 24; Soybeans up 38 1/2; Soymeal down $14.10; Soyoil up 4.38.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans unchanged; Soymeal down 35; Soyoil up 40; Palm oil up 78; Corn up 7 — Malaysian Palm is up 2.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 2 ringgit (+0.05%) at 4218.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 71 Oats; 3 Corn; 262 Soybeans; 1,116 Soyoil; 1,462 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 24 were: SRW Wheat up 8,601 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,032, Corn down 14,448, Soybeans down 1,372, Soymeal down 395, Soyoil up 1,482.

 

Brazil: Isolated showers in central Brazil allowed producers to do some field work last week. But those showers will increase this week and make it much more difficult to do so, delaying soybean harvest and corn planting. Southern areas are going through periods of scattered showers, but generally staying below normal in amounts across the state of Rio Grande do Sul, which will be harmful for filling corn in that state.

Argentina: Pockets of showers moved through the country over the weekend, though most areas have seen either little or no rainfall for several weeks now. Only a few lucky areas were able to pick up meaningful rainfall. A couple more waves of showers will move across the country through Wednesday, though mostly across the north. Dry weather will follow going into next week. Overall soil moisture and crop conditions should continue the downward trend, especially with temperatures in the 90s going into next week.

Northern Plains: Very warm weather will be in place this week, but cold air will arrive over the weekend as a clipper passes by to the north. Limited precipitation is expected with this system and drought continues to be a major concern this winter. The weather pattern may be more favorable in February, however.

Central/Southern Plains: Scattered showers developed in eastern Texas over the weekend, but most areas stayed colder and dry. A slow-developing system will move into the region on Wednesday but may take until Friday to leave. Precipitation will be heavier across the southeastern areas of the region, though showers could be widespread. It will likely have little effect on the soil moisture situation for most of the region outside of the southeast. The pattern may allow for another large system to move through next week.

Midwest: Some light snow moved across the north this weekend, but most areas stayed dry while temperatures rose. A couple of clippers will move through the Great Lakes with snow that could be enhanced by lake-effect. A larger system is likely to move through late week and weekend with a widespread mix of rain and snow. A clipper will move through this weekend into early next week and will bring a burst of colder air through, but it may take until another system moves through later next week to push through the entire region.

Mississippi: Water levels will fall near the low-water mark this week, though southern areas have had enough rainfall to limit the fall on the river system there. A larger storm system will move through late this week and should bring through some meaningful precipitation to support water levels from falling too rapidly. Another system next week could be more meaningful.

Europe: Heavy precipitation moved through northwestern Europe over the weekend due to a couple of major storm systems. Some precipitation went through Spain as well, which continues in a couple of waves early this week. Systems will fall apart as they head east, with limited showers in Italy or the southeast, where more rainfall is needed for winter wheat.

Black Sea: Wheat went dormant in good condition in the west, but poor condition in the east, particularly in southwestern Russia. Showers haven’t been heavy or consistent enough to boost soil moisture. This pattern is unlikely to change as systems moving through Europe are forecast to mostly fall apart before reaching the region with much rain. More rain or snow is needed before wheat breaks dormancy this spring. There are no risks of significant cold for the next couple of weeks that would be a large concern for winter kill on exposed wheat.

Australia: Very little precipitation fell across agricultural areas in Australia over the weekend, with mostly just some spotty showers in the northeast. Limited rainfall is expected this week with generally hot temperatures that will cause stress for cotton and sorghum.

 

The player sheet for Jan. 24 had funds: net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 4,000 corn, sellers of 3,500 soybeans, sellers of 3,500 soymeal, and buyers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

  • SOYMEAL SALE: Algerian state agency ONAB is believed to have bought about 25,000 to 35,000 metric tons of soymeal in an international tender for up to 70,000 tons on Thursday.
  • FEED BARLEY SALE: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL is believed to have purchased animal feed barley in an international tender seeking around 120,000 metric tons this week.

 PENDING TENDERS

  • MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
  • FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
  • FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries said it would seek 65,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Feb. 15 and arrive in the country by March 13. This would be done via a simultaneous buy and sell auction that will be held on Jan. 29, it said in a statement.

 

 

country field in winter

 

 

TODAY

 

US Sold 1.49M Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 1.67M of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending Jan. 16.

  • Soybean sales rose to 1,493k tons vs 569k in previous week
  • All wheat sales fell to 215k tons vs 522k in previous week
  • Corn sales rose to 1,670k tons vs 1,024k in previous week

 

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Jan. 16, according to data on the USDA’s website.

  • Top buyer of soybeans: China with 889k tons
  • Top buyer of corn: South Korea with 462k tons
  • Top buyer of wheat: Japan with 63k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Jan. 16, according to data on the USDA’s website.

  • Japan bought 9.6k tons of the 37.7k tons of pork sold in the week
  • Japan and Mexico combined for 18.5k tons of the 37.7k tons of pork sold in the week
  • China led in beef purchases

 

US Cattle on Feed Placements Fell to 1.64M Head in Dec.

Placements onto feedlots of capacity of 1,000 or more fell 3.3% from a year ago, according to the USDA’s monthly report.

  • Analysts were expecting a rise of 1.2%
  • The US feedlot herd as of Jan. 1 were down 0.9% y/y to 11.823m head
  • Cattle marketed from feedlots increased 1% to 1.742m head

 

US Dec. Pork Supplies in Cold Storage Dropped Y/y to 400M Pounds

According to the USDA’s Jan. 24 cold storage report released on the agency’s website.

  • Total pork fell 6.3% from Dec. of last year
  • Pork belly supplies dropped to 34.3m pounds from 56m last year
  • Beef supplies fell to 457.3m pounds from 480.3m last year

 

USDA attaché sees Argentina 2024/25 corn crop at 49 million tons

Following are selected highlights from a report issued on Friday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service post in Buenos Aires:

“Wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 is estimated at 18.1 (million metric) tons, higher on a larger area. Exports remain unchanged, with Brazil expected to be quite active. … Corn production in MY 2024/25 is estimated at 49 million tons, although the current dry spell and high temperatures suffered in practically the whole country could hurt potential yields unless widespread rains are present soon. Smaller production would have a direct impact on exports, estimated at 34 million, practically unchanged from the previous year. Sorghum production in MY 2024/25 is estimated at 3.8 million tons, with exports at 1.5 million tons. While China has imported little Argentine sorghum year to date, it normally imports the bulk of it in the second half of the marketing year.”

 

Mexico’s Sheinbaum Sends Bill Banning GMO Corn Crops to Congress

Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum said she sent a reform bill aimed at banning genetically engineered corn to Congress, according to a statement sent via WhatsApp.

  • Measure to make adjustments to articles 4 and 27 of Mexico’s constitution
  • Objective of reform is to also make corn an element of national identity
  • Reforms to also promote “agro-ecological” techniques for corn crops

 

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Prices in Paraná are the lowest since August 2024

Soybean prices dropped in Brazil this week, influenced by the supply of the new crop (2024/25), especially in Paraná. The weather has been more favorable for the harvesting in the south of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná, but rains in Cerrado partially affected activities. Moreover, the decrease of dollar values against Real reinforced price drops in Brazil.

PRICES – The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) dropped 0.3% from January 16-23, closing at BRL 133.80 per 60-kg bag on Jan. 23. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) moved down 1.1% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 128.50 per 60-kg bag yesterday, the lowest since August 26, 2024, in nominal terms.

On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices decreased 0.2% from Jan. 16-23 in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 1.2% in the wholesale market (deals between processors). The US dollar dropped 2.4% against Real in the same comparison, at BRL 5.917 yesterday, the lowest since November 27 last year.

CROPS – Conab says that the soy harvesting reached 1.2% of the 47.4 million hectares planted in Brazil up to Jan. 19.

BYPRODUCTS – On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, soymeal prices rose 0.4% between Jan. 16 and 23. The Brazilian value of soy oil upped 1.1%, at 6,903.17 BRL per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on Jan. 23.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Harvesting and planting step up; prices have slight adjustments

Producers are focused on the summer crop harvesting and on the beginning of the second crop planting. Thus, the pace of trades is slow, and prices have been registering slight adjustments in most part of regions surveyed by Cepea.

In general, while the warm and dry weather in part of Paraná and in Rio Grande do Sul states has been favoring the summer crop harvesting, it also brings concerns about the planting of the second crop, such as in Mato Grosso do Sul and in Paraná. In Mato Grosso, on the other hand, the high amount of rainfall over the last days has been reducing the pace of activities.

Since producers are prioritizing crop activities and soybean deals, corn trades continue limited, which brings expectations to producers that prices may move up in the coming weeks. On the other hand, consumers who have to replenish inventories have been purchasing the product from São Paulo state or smaller batches from other states in the Central-West. This scenario has led prices to register only slight variations in most part of regions.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) decreased 0.7% between January 16 and 23, closing at BRL 73.88 per 60-kilo bag on Jan. 23. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, in the same comparison, corn values upped 0.5% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers), but downed 0.6% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

CROPS – Up to Jan. 19, the harvesting of the summer crop had reached 4.4% of the area in Brazil, while second crop planting activities had totaled 0.5%, both delayed compared to the season before, according to data from Conab.

SHIPMENTS – In the partial of January (12 producing days), Brazil exported 2.02 million tons, with a daily average at 168.53 thousand tons. In case they continue at this pace up to the end of the month, Brazilian shipments are likely to total 3.70 million tons in January, below the 4.87 million tons sold in the first month of 2024, according to data from Secex.

Corn quotations rose 0.8% from Jan. 16-23 at the port of Paranaguá (PR). Dollar values decreased 2.4% against Real in the same comparison, closing at BRL 5.917 on January 23.

 

China bans livestock product imports from numerous countries on disease worries

China has prohibited imports of sheep, goat, poultry and even-toed ungulates from African, Asian and European countries due to outbreaks of livestock diseases such as sheep pox, goat pox and foot-and-mouth-disease.

The ban, which also includes processed and unprocessed products, comes after the World Health Organization released information of disease outbreaks in various countries, according to a series of announcements by China’s General Administration of Customs dated Jan. 21.

The ban from the world’s largest meat importer affects Ghana, Somalia, Qatar, Congo (DRC), Nigeria, and Tanzania, Egypt, Bulgaria, East Timor and Eritrea.

China also said it has stopped imports of sheep, goat and related products from Palestine, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal and Bangladesh due to sheep pox and goat pox outbreaks.

It also blocked the imports of even-toed ungulates and related products from Germany following an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, it said.

 

 

Ukraine to Plant 11.1M Hectares With Grains in 2025: Ministry

Ukraine plans to plant 11.1 million hectares (27.4m acres) with grains this year, similar to 2024, the Agriculture Ministry said on its website.

  • The total includes:
    • 4.15m hectares of corn, up 2.4% y/y
    • 790,200 hectares of spring barley, down 5.8% y/y
    • 222,700 hectares of spring wheat, up 28% y/y
    • 5.2m hectares of winter grains, mostly wheat
  • Areas under oilseeds seen at 8.9m hectares, including:
    • 5.2m hectares of sunflowers, up 5% y/y
    • 2.4m hectares of soybeans, down 9.4% y/y
    • 1.17m hectares of winter and spring rapeseed, down 8% y/y

 

 

China’s suspension of five Brazilian soy exporters to last 2 months, says Brazilian official

China’s suspension earlier this month of Brazilian soybean exports from five companies after cargoes did not meet plant health requirements will last two months, a top Brazilian agriculture official told Reuters on Friday.

Brazil is the top soybean exporter to China, which is the world’s top importer. Brazilian farmers and exporters compete with counterparts in the United States for the Chinese market.

China suspended imports from the five companies on Jan. 8 and Jan. 14 after cargoes failed to meet Chinese import standards. The five suspended units are part of operations that accounted for more than 30% of the more than 73 million metric tons of soybeans that Brazil exported to China in 2024. However, other units of the same companies have not been suspended.

The agriculture ministry is investigating the issue and would send clarifications to China in due course, Luis Rua, agriculture ministry’s commerce and international relations secretary, told Reuters on Friday.

Rua was unaware of the number of cargoes involved, or their origin, but said only a small volume was involved.

The five units were only a fraction of the 1,700 Brazilian outfits authorized to export soybeans to China, he said.

Brazilian soybean exports are due to surge over the coming weeks as more of the harvested crop is moved to market. Brazil sells about three-quarters of its soy exports to China.

The companies affected by the suspensions had a meeting with government officials in Brasilia on Thursday, according to Anec, a Brazilian association representing global grain traders. Anec declined to name the companies or give more details.

 

Brazil eyes lower import tax on food products that are cheaper abroad

Brazil’s government is planning to reduce import taxes levied on food products that are currently more expensive domestically than abroad, Presidential Chief of Staff Rui Costa said on Friday.

Costa told reporters that the government would conduct a study on the matter and focus on “any and all products that are cheaper overseas.”

The announcement followed a meeting between President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and cabinet members to discuss ways to lower food prices, after Lula called for action earlier this week.

Inflation closed 2024 at 4.8%, above the official target of 3%. Food prices were a key driver with a 7.7% rise, weighing on the popularity of the leftist leader.

Costa said 2025 is expected to bring a record crop, which should boost supply and reduce food costs. He also dismissed proposals floated in recent media reports, such as the creation of a state-run supermarket chain.

“The government is convinced that prices are determined by the market, not artificially manipulated,” he said.

“No heterodox measures will be adopted. There will be no price freezes, price controls, or inspections … no state-run supermarkets or stores to sell products. These things do not exist.”

Costa said Lula urged the government to focus resources on existing agricultural policies to stimulate the production of staple goods.

He also signaled that another measure under consideration would aim to reduce the intermediation costs of operations involving meal vouchers, which are provided to formal workers by employers in Brazil.

 

US Pork Production Falls 5.4% This Week, Beef Down: USDA

US federally inspected pork production falls to 541m pounds for the week ending Jan. 25 from 572m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

  • Hog slaughter down 5.7% from a week ago to 2.477m head
  • Beef production down 0.3% from a week ago, cattle slaughter falls 0.7%
  • For the year, beef production is 6% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 8.1% below

 

 

 

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