Global Ag News for Jan 24.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Trump’s Agriculture Pick Says She’ll Honor All Fuel Sources

President Donald Trump’s nominee to oversee American farming was once head of a group that was among the loudest opponents of a favorite US agriculture product: biofuels.

But Brooke Rollins, a Texas native who’s Trump’s choice for US secretary of agriculture, vowed in her confirmation hearing Thursday to “elevate and honor all sources of fuel.” She said she looks forward to continuing Trump’s “current energy dominance plan,” of which biofuels is an “important piece.”

Rollins spent 15 years as head of the Texas Public Policy Institute, before moving on in 2018. The conservative think tank backed fossil fuels and vocally opposed US corn-based ethanol. At the time, traditional fuelmakers found themselves at odds with biofuels, with a federal blending mandate dividing the two traditionally right-leaning sectors of energy and agriculture. Even Trump sometimes found himself walking a tightrope between the constituencies during his first term.

Since then, the rivalry between the sectors has faded. More fossil fuel companies have started pumping out products made from corn and soybeans, America’s two biggest crops. Trump’s administration is considering steps to boost sales of biofuel.

Brooke Rollins during the America First Policy Institute’s America First Agenda summit in Washington, D.C., US, on Monday, July 25, 2022.

“She’s working for a president that’s pro-ethanol, so she’s obviously going to have to follow the president’s lead, and I’m sure she will,” Republican Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa, the largest US corn grower, said in an interview before the hearing.

“Coming from Texas, I was a massive defender of fossil fuels and the importance of fossil fuels in the energy independence and energy dominance narrative,” Rollins said during the hearing. “Clearly, I’ve spoken with so many of you on both sides of the aisle on this issue. I will be a secretary for all agriculture.”

Rollins’ “extensive qualifications and dedication to America’s farmers” would be on display during the hearing, White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly said in a statement to Bloomberg.

During Trump’s first term, he was still working to broker a compromise between oil and biofuel interests. In the years since, oil majors have invested in renewable fuels to capture financial government incentives and as a way to gain an environmental sheen and fend off the threat from electric vehicles.

The two industries have become “increasingly aligned,” which could present more opportunities for expanding biofuel use, said Monte Shaw, the executive director of the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 4 in SRW, down 4 3/4 in HRW, down 4 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 4 1/2; Soybeans down 12 3/4; Soymeal down $7.70; Soyoil down 0.35.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 12 1/4 in SRW, up 20 3/4 in HRW, up 17 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 2 3/4; Soybeans up 21 3/4; Soymeal up $11.70; Soyoil down 0.96.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 1 1/2 in SRW, up 6 3/4 in HRW, up 4 in HRS; Corn is up 26 3/4; Soybeans up 42 1/4; Soymeal down $9.30; Soyoil up 4.33.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans down 12 yuan; Soymeal down 3; Soyoil down 52; Palm oil down 34; Corn down 11 — Malaysian Palm is up 26.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 26 ringgit (+0.62%) at 4216.

There were changes in registrations (-1 Oats). Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 71 Oats; 3 Corn; 262 Soybeans; 1,116 Soyoil; 1,462 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 23 were: SRW Wheat up 635 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,640, Corn up 31,537, Soybeans up 12,112, Soymeal up 3,074, Soyoil down 673.

Brazil: Early soybean harvest in central Brazil is off to a slow start due to late planting and heavy rainfall, but showers are lighter this week and some ground may be able to pick up. However, the forecast is for heavier rain next week into early February and could cause quality issues for soybeans and delays for the safrinha corn planting. Southern areas are seeing isolated showers become more scattered later this week and into the weekend, favorable for filling crops there, but also a hindrance to harvest.

Argentina: Spotty showers are in the forecast, helping some areas where they hit, but missing more than they help. Western areas like Cordoba are more favored than those in the east. High temperatures approaching 100 degrees in between showers will continue to stress crops and we should continue to see declines in crop conditions.

Northern Plains: Temperatures will waffle around a bit with several fronts moving through over the next week, but generally trend above normal most of the time. Those fronts will continue to bring only light snow through. Drought continues to be a major concern this winter but we may see a snowier pattern in February.

Central/Southern Plains: A couple of fronts moving through may bring some light showers this week. But a front will get stuck across the south this weekend and could bring several rounds of showers through next week, especially to Texas. Colder air continues in the region and most of the ground is exposed, which may cause some winter kill on wheat. Temperatures should trend higher next week.

Midwest: Several fronts and clippers will continue to move through the region through next week, causing temperatures to bounce around a bit and bringing through some occasional light snow and lake-effect snow.

Lower Mississippi: Water levels have fallen from their highs earlier this month, but are still above the low-water mark. Limited precipitation across the central and northern basin will cause levels to fall going into February and could cause some transportation disruptions for late winter if the pattern does not get more active.

 

The player sheet for Jan. 23 had funds: net buyers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 17,500 corn, buyers of 8,000 soybeans, sellers of 500 soymeal, and buyers of 2,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

  • WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 126,893 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S., Canada and Australia in a regular tender.
  • FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
  • NO PURCHASE IN FEED WHEAT TENDER: A group of importers in Thailand is believed to have rejected all offers and made no purchase in an international tender for up to 195,000 metric tons animal feed wheat which closed on Wednesday. 

PENDING TENDERS

  • RICE TENDERS: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice, with price offers that were due by Jan. 1
  • FEED GRAIN TENDERS: Iran’s state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn; 120,000 tons of feed barley; and 60,000 tons of soymeal
  • CORN, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Algerian state agency ONAB issued new international tenders to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 70,000 tons of soymeal
  • MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
  • FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries said it would seek 65,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Feb. 15 and arrive in the country by March 13. This would be done via a simultaneous buy and sell auction that will be held on Jan. 29, it said in a statement.

 

Earth

 

TODAY

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 3.5% to 25.874M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

  • Analysts were expecting 25.354 mln bbl
  • Plant production at 1.099m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.087m

 

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of three analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Friday for week ending Jan. 16.

  • Corn est. range 700k – 1,700k tons, with avg of 1,067k
  • Soybean est. range 600k – 1,800k tons, with avg of 1,067k

 

Demand for Grain Transportation High in 4Q, USDA Says — Market Talk

Transportation for U.S. grains — barges, trucks, and railcars — had strong demand in the fourth quarter of 2024, which the USDA attributes to stronger demand for U.S. corn, soybeans, and wheat. In its weekly Grains Transportation report, the USDA says that winter wheat seen this month is creating slowdown in logistics for grains, but last month all systems were adequate to fulfill demand. “Rail and barge volumes in the fourth quarter were both up from the prior 3-year average,” says the USDA. “Additionally, grain vessel loading activity increased in the U.S. Gulf.” Analysts speculate that U.S. grain export sales will cool in January, with President Trump starting his second term in office will a bevy of tariff threats.

 

Argentine Soy, Corn, Wheat Estimates Jan. 23: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

  • 2024-25 corn production lowered by a million tons to 49m tons
  • 2024-25 soybean production also lowered by a million tons, 49.6m vs 50.6m

 

Argentina Cuts Export Tariffs On Top Crops Through June: Caputo

Argentina will lower export tariffs on its main crops, including soy and its derivatives, starting Monday through June 30, Economy Minister Luis Caputo said during a press conference Thursday afternoon.

  • Soy export tax will be cut to 26 from 33%, Agriculture secretary Sergio Iraeta announced
  • Soy derivatives will fall to 24.5% from 33%: Iraeta
  • Wheat falls to 9% from 12%
  • Sunflower to 5.5% from 7%
  • Smaller regional crops will have their taxes cut permanently, Caputo added
  • Government would like to cut the taxes permanently but does not yet have the resources to do so, Caputo explained

 

Argentina Slashes Export Taxes to Rescue Drought-Hit Farmers

Argentina slashed taxes on its major crops that provide billions of dollars in export revenue as it seeks to throw a lifeline to farmers wrestling with a drought and low global prices.

The government of President Javier Milei cut tariffs on exports of soy meal and oil to 24.5% from 31%. The levy on unprocessed beans was cut to 26% from 33%. The tax on corn was reduced to 9.5% from 12%. There were cuts for other major crops, including wheat, barley and sunflowers.

“We thought this display of solidarity was very important given farmers’ situation,” said Economy Minister Luis Caputo at a news conference. “We’re seeking nothing other than justice,” he added.

Soybean plants in a dry field at a farm in Rosario, Argentina, on Wednesday, Jan. 15, 2025. A La Nina weather pattern that wreaked havoc on Argentina’s farms just two years ago was expected to be kinder this time around, but as the growing season gets under way, a long bout of dry weather is emerging again.

Argentina has taxed shipments for years as a way to fund bloated government budgets, even though it’s held back development of key export industries and, especially, beleaguered farmers. Milei is on a crusade to slash spending, but Caputo said they still aren’t in a position to afford a blanket, permanent removal of the export taxes.

The policy will go into effect Jan. 27 and will last for most of the harvest, with the bulk of fieldwork done in the second quarter. The taxes would be scheduled to go back up in July. That will spur farmers to trade their soy and corn straight away, beefing up central bank dollar reserves that Milei needs to help stabilize the economy ahead of midterm elections.

Growing reserves is also a key issue in talks that Argentina is holding now in Buenos Aires with the International Monetary Fund for a new program to succeed the current $44 billion deal. A sticking point is Argentina’s foreign-exchange policy, whereby inflation outpaces the government’s monthly peso depreciation.

The resulting strong peso, low global crop prices and the drought are eating into farmers’ profit margins, with many operating at a loss this season. In essence for them, the tax breaks are a compensation mechanism.

For global crop traders, the policy boosts the competitiveness of Argentine food shipments against rivals like neighboring Brazil. Argentina is usually the world’s biggest exporter of soy meal and oil, and the third-biggest supplier of corn.

“This is crucial for farmers at a time when global prices are low and there are regions suffering a bad drought,” Sergio Iraeta, the government’s agriculture chief, said at the conference. “I hope it rains.”

 

Brazil 2024/2025 soybean crop seen at record 170.7 mln tns, says hEDGEpoint

Brazil’s 2024/2025 soybean crop is expected to reach a record 170.7 million metric tons, hEDGEpoint Global Markets said in a statement on Thursday.

The soybean planted area is seen reaching a record 47.54 million acres, it added.

 

Ukraine Grain Exports 11% Higher Y/Y So Far This Season

Ukraine’s grain exports totaled 24.7m tons so far in the season, that started July 1, the Agriculture Ministry said on its website.

Total include:

  • 10.6m tons of wheat, up 21% y/y
  • 2m tons of barley, up 60% y/y
  • 11.7m tons of corn, down 2% y/y
  • January exports have so far have reached 2.5m tons, down more than 30% from the same period last year

 

Indonesia Nov. Palm Oil Exports Fall to 2.6m Tons: Gapki

Indonesia’s palm oil exports fell to 2.64m tons in November from 2.89m tons in October, according to Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki).

  • Palm oil output fell to 4.75m tons from 4.84m tons in October
    • Crude palm oil production fell 2% m/m to 4.33m tons
  • Palm oil domestic consumption fell to 2.03m tons from 2.08m tons in October
  • Palm oil for biodiesel domestic consumption fell to 994,000 tons from 1.05m tons in October
  • Palm oil stockpiles rose to 2.58m tons from 2.5m tons in October

 

India set to raise farm budget by over 15%, biggest increase in six years

  • Budget likely to allocate over $20 bln for agriculture
  • Focus on boosting crop yields to raise farm income, curb inflation
  • India aims to boost farm exports to over $80 billion by 2030

India plans to increase spending for the agriculture sector by about 15% to around $20 billion in next month’s budget, two government sources said, marking the biggest increase in six years, as it tries to boost rural incomes and curb inflation.

The additional cash would be directed to developing high-yielding seed varieties, increasing storage and supply infrastructure, and boosting production of pulse crops, oilseeds, vegetables, and dairy products, the sources said.

The sources asked not to be named as they were not authorised to talk to the media.

India’s finance and agriculture ministries did not respond to emails seeking comments.

India, the world’s second-largest producer of rice, wheat, and sugar, has grappled with high food prices, which surged past 10% year-on-year in October 2024. They have since eased slightly and have averaged over 6% in the last decade.

To try to curb price rises, New Delhi has imposed export restrictions on some farm products, including wheat, and has extended duty free import policy for some pulse varieties.

Total allocations for agriculture and allied activities in the 2025/26 fiscal year starting April are likely to increase to about 1.75 trillion rupees ($20.2 billion), up from 1.52 trillion rupees in the current fiscal year, said the sources familiar with budget discussions.

This includes a rise in the agricultural ministry’s budget from 1.23 trillion rupees, and higher spending on research to develop new varieties, which currently stands at 99.41 billion rupees, one of the sources said.

The second source said agriculture was one of the priorities of the budget that Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present on Feb. 1.

The same source said the government was seeking not just to increase domestic supplies but to generate a surplus sufficient to increase farm exports to $80 billion by 2030, up from the current $50 billion.

Agriculture employs nearly 45% of India’s workforce and contributes nearly 15% to the $3.5 trillion economy.

The budget is also expected to increase the limit for subsidised farm loans to 500,000 rupees from 300,000 rupees per farmer and expand crop insurance, the second source said.

The government plans to boost pulse production to 30 million metric tons by 2030, and invest $9 billion in the fisheries sector over the next five years, both sources said.

The plans also include providing incentives totalling 109 billion rupees for food processing firms through 2027.

The likely announcements would fall short of addressing deeper issues including low productivity and stagnant farm incomes, Devinder Sharma, an independent farm policy analyst, said.

“The government should increase direct transfers to farmers and improve procurement of crops to stablise incomes and ensure fair consumer prices,” he added.

 

Mexico’s Sheinbaum Files Reform to Ban GMO Corn Crops: Milenio

President Claudia Sheinbaum sent to Mexico’s lower house a bill to ban crops of genetically engineered corn in the country, Milenio reported.

  • Bill also seeks to declare corn an element of national identity: Milenio
  • Government pledged to safeguard jobs in the agricultural sector: Milenio

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Decline: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 428k tons in the week ending Jan. 18 from 452k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

  • Barge shipments of corn fell 15% from the previous week
  • Soybean shipments down 1.8% w/w
  • St. Louis barge rates were $14.76 per short ton, a decline of $0.20 from the previous week

 

LIVESTOCK: US Red Meat Production Fell 0.1% Y/y in December

Commercial beef and pork production fell to 4.54b pounds in Dec., according to the USDA’s monthly livestock slaughter report.

  • Beef production up 0.5% y/y to 2.2b pounds
  • Dec. cattle slaughter totaled 2.54m head, a 2% decline from a year ago
    • Avg live weight rose by 30 pounds from last year to 1,431 pounds
  • Pork production down 0.6% y/y to 2.33b pounds
  • Hog slaughter fell 0.7% y/y to 10,748m head
    • Avg live weight was 291 pounds vs 291 pounds a year ago

 

 

 

 

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