Global Ag News for Jan 23.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Trump’s USDA secretary pick led group opposed to ethanol, farm subsidies

  • Rollins led Texas policy group that said ethanol raised emissions and food prices
  • Trump had mixed record on ethanol in first term
  • Rollins to face nomination hearing on Thursday

President Donald Trump’s pick to run the Agriculture Department, Brooke Rollins, led an organization that opposed ethanol mandates and farm subsidies, major programs she could influence if confirmed, according to a Reuters review of the group’s policy statements.

That background may put Rollins at odds with farm state lawmakers at her nomination hearing on Thursday and revive concerns in the powerful corn and biofuel lobbies about Trump’s mixed record on ethanol during his first term in office.

“The hearing is a perfect occasion to renounce the misleading and demonstrably false statements made about ethanol by some of her colleagues more than a decade ago,” said Geoff Cooper, president and CEO of the Renewable Fuels Association, an ethanol trade group.

Rollins was president and CEO of the Texas Public Policy Foundation from 2003 to 2018, during which time the oil industry-backed nonprofit argued that government support for ethanol contributed to higher emissions and rising food and fuel prices.

The oil industry has seen ethanol as a threat to its share in the gasoline market, and says a federal mandate requiring the biofuel to be blended in to the nation’s fuel supply costs it a fortune in compliance costs.

“As a way to save the planet, not many policies are worse than government-backed ethanol. It’s bad for the economy, bad for the environment, doesn’t reduce greenhouse gases, and has led to rapidly rising food prices,” said one article published by the Texas group in 2012.

In 2017, Rollins endorsed Kathleen Hartnett White, the longtime director of the group’s energy program, to serve as Trump’s chair of the White House’s Council on Environmental Quality. The White House later withdrew her nomination after a contentious hearing that included criticism of her ethanol positions from farm state senators.

White had supported a 2008 effort by then-Texas governor Rick Perry to partially waive the ethanol blending program, known as the Renewable Fuel Standard, in the state. The Environmental Protection Agency, which administers the program, denied Perry’s request.

During Rollins’ tenure, the group also called for the elimination of farm subsidies in a 2016 report titled “The Policymaker’s Guide to Corporate Welfare.”

The report said offering loan guarantees to farmers to start or expand their operations “introduces distortions into the marketplace.”

The USDA issues billions of dollars in direct and guaranteed loans each year to support the domestic farm economy.

Rollins, who served as acting director of the White House Domestic Policy Council during Trump’s first term, is set to appear before the Senate Agriculture Committee for her nomination hearing on Thursday.

“Brooke Rollins will work to enact the President’s agenda, and you can look to President Trump’s past statements of support for biofuels to understand the Administration’s position on this issue,” said Anna Kelly, a spokesperson for the Trump administration transition team.

During his 2017-21 term, Trump boosted corn-based ethanol by enabling year-round sales of higher ethanol blends of gasoline, but also angered the ethanol industry by expanding the use of waivers exempting small refiners from the federal blending requirement.

Ethanol trade group Growth Energy said it supports Rollins’ nomination and believes the Trump administration will support the ethanol industry’s priorities.

During the Biden administration, Rollins led the America First Policy Institute, a policy organization closely tied to Trump which has expressed skepticism about climate change.

More than 400 state and national agriculture groups wrote to Senate agriculture committee leaders John Boozman and Amy Klobuchar on Jan. 15 to endorse Rollins.

“Her close working relationship with incoming President Trump will ensure that agriculture and rural America have a prominent and influential voice at the table when critical decisions are made in the White House,” the letter said.

 

 

interconnected globe

 

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 in SRW, down 2 in HRW, down 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans down 1 1/2; Soymeal down $0.30; Soyoil up 0.03.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 13 1/4 in SRW, up 24 1/4 in HRW, up 21 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans up 20 1/2; Soymeal up $18.40; Soyoil down 1.24.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 1/2 in SRW, up 13 1/2 in HRW, up 9 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 25; Soybeans up 44; Soymeal down $1.40; Soyoil up 4.09.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans down 4 yuan; Soymeal unchanged; Soyoil down 72; Palm oil down 118; Corn up 11 — Malaysian Palm is down 18.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 18 ringgit (-0.43%) at 4190.

 

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 72 Oats; 3 Corn; 262 Soybeans; 1,116 Soyoil; 1,462 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 22 were: SRW Wheat down 211 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,042, Corn up 15,115, Soybeans down 4,827, Soymeal up 4,559, Soyoil up 819.

 

Brazil: Early soybean harvest in central Brazil is off to a slow start due to late planting and heavy rainfall, but showers are lighter this week and some ground may be able to pick up. However, the forecast is for heavier rain next week into early February and could cause quality issues for soybeans and delays for the safrinha corn harvest. Southern areas are seeing isolated showers become more scattered later this week and into the weekend, favorable for filling crops there, but also a hindrance to harvest. Showers will become more isolated there next week.

Argentina: Spotty showers are in the forecast, helping some areas where they hit, but missing more than they help. Western areas like Cordoba are more favored than those in the east. High temperatures approaching 100 degrees in between showers will continue to stress crops and we should continue to see declines in crop conditions.

Northern Plains: Temperatures will waffle around a bit with several fronts moving through over the next week. Those fronts will continue to bring only light snow through. Drought continues to be a major concern this winter.

Central/Southern Plains: A couple of fronts moving through may bring some light showers this week. But a front will get stuck across the south this weekend and could bring several rounds of showers through next week, especially to Texas. Colder air continues in the region and most of the ground is exposed, which may cause some winter kill on wheat.

Midwest: Several fronts and clippers will continue to move through the region through next week, causing temperatures to bounce around a bit and bringing through some occasional light snow and lake-effect snow.

Lower Mississippi: Water levels have fallen from their highs earlier this month, but are still above the low water mark. Limited precipitation across the central and northern basin will cause levels to fall going into February and could cause some transportation disruptions for late winter.

Europe: Soil moisture in Spain will finally see some improvement with showers forecast to move through in several waves going into February. That does mean more rainfall for the northwestern areas that are not in need of precipitation right now, though. Italy and the southeast are only in line for periodic light showers, however, and could use more rain.

Black Sea: Wheat went dormant in good condition in the west, but poor condition in the east, particularly in southwestern Russia. Showers haven’t been heavy or consistent enough to boost soil moisture but the pattern may get more active for the end of January if systems from eastern Europe can hold together. They are not forecast to do so, however. More rain or snow is needed before wheat breaks dormancy this spring. There are no risks of significant cold for the next couple of weeks that would be a large concern for winter kill on exposed wheat.

Australia: Showers have been favorable in eastern areas for developing cotton and sorghum but the south and west are seeing declining soil moisture. Remnants of tropical cyclone Sean may drift into western areas by the end of this week, but may not bring much through. Temperatures will remain above average which could dry soils out even further. Isolated to scattered showers continue for the next week.

 

The player sheet for Jan. 22 had funds: net sellers of 3,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 12,000 corn, sellers of 6,000 soybeans, buyers of 4,000 soymeal, and sellers of 5,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

  • CORN SALE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc bought an estimated 136,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender
  • CORN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 136,000 metric tons of U.S. corn for shipment to undisclosed destinations in the 2024/25 marketing year.
  • BARLEY SALE: Jordan’s state grain buyer purchased about 100,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender
  • FEED WHEAT SALE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc purchased about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in an international tender on Wednesday
  • WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 126,893 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S., Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed on Thursday.
  • FEED WHEAT TENDER PASSED: A group of importers in Thailand is believed to have rejected all offers and made no purchase in an international tender for up to 195,000 metric tons animal feed wheat which closed on Wednesday
  • CORN, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Algerian state agency ONAB issued new international tenders to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 70,000 tons of soymeal
  • MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
  • FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries said it would seek 65,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Feb. 15 and arrive in the country by March 13. This would be done via a simultaneous buy and sell auction that will be held on Jan. 29, it said in a statement.

PENDING TENDERS

  • RICE TENDERS: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice, with price offers that were due by Jan. 1
  • FEED GRAIN TENDERS: Iran’s state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn; 120,000 tons of feed barley; and 60,000 tons of soymeal.
  • BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said on Thursday.

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Jan. 17 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

  • Production seen lower than last week at 1.087m b/d
  • Stockpile avg est. 25.354m bbl vs 25.008m a week ago

 

China Suspends Soybean Imports From Some Brazilian Exporters

Chinese customs authorities suspended soybean shipments from some exporters in top producer Brazil, a move that comes just as the Asian nation seeks to curb food imports.

The suspension affects specific units of agricultural commodities traders including Cargill Inc, Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. and Olam Group Ltd., according to people familiar with knowledge of the move, who asked not to be named discussing private matters. The orders were issued earlier this month and were the result of sanitation concerns, the people said.

China, the world’s biggest food buyer, has asked traders and processors to buy less foreign grains this year in an attempt to buoy prices and support local farmers as domestic demand continues to slow. Still, the measure only affects specific units and traders should be able to continue to ship to China from other registered entities, the people said.

The units affected include Terra Roxa Comercio de Cereais Ltda., Olam Brasil Ltd., C. Vale Cooperativa Agroindustrial, Cargill Agricola SA and ADM do Brasil Ltda., the people said. The news was first reported by Reuters.

Chicago soybean edged down, after falling 1% in the previous session as imports curbs by the world’s top buyer cast a shadow over global demand outlook. Soymeal futures traded on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange rose over supply concerns.

In a statement on Wednesday, Brazil’s agriculture ministry said it had been notified by China of the suspension, after pesticide-coated soybeans and quarantine pests were found in the shipments from the affected entities earlier. The ministry stressed that other units of the companies continue to export to China and Brazil’s trading volumes would not be affected.

The ministry “expects to receive as soon as possible action plans from the companies involved to demonstrate the procedures adopted to prevent further occurrences.”

Cargill, Olam and ADM did not respond to a request for comment. Terra Roxa and C. Vale didn’t respond to a request for comment. China General Administration of Customs didn’t immediately reply to a fax seeking comment.

China’s move to limit food imports has already resulted in a shortage of soybeans in the south of the country as ships are waiting longer than usual to clear customs, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg last year. The move to block some Brazilian entities also comes at a time when China may need to import more from South America should President Donald Trump start another trade war.

 

Brazil Says China Decision on Soy Doesn’t Affect Traded Volumes

China’s suspension of soybean shipments from units of five Brazilian companies will not affect Brazil’s trading volumes, said the country’s Agriculture and Livestock Ministry in a statement.

  • Suspension is only worth for the five units notified, the ministry said
  • China detected the presence of pesticide-coated soybeans and quarantine pests in the shipments
  • Ministry expects to receive action plans from the companies involved and will adopt procedures to prevent further occurrences
  • Brazil will also request the immediate lifting of the suspensions when the irregularities are solved

 

Brazil forecasts record 322mn tonnes grain harvest for 2025

Brazil expects to harvest 322.2mn tonnes of grain in 2024-2025, up 8.2% from the previous season, on the back of favourable weather and expanded planting area, according to the national supply agency Conab.

Soybean production is forecast to reach 166.33mn tonnes, an 18.61mn-tonne increase, with yields rising to 3,509 kg per hectare from 3,201 kg.

Corn output is projected at 119.6mn tonnes, up 3.3%, despite reduced first-crop planting.

The total farming area has grown 1.8% to 81.4mn hectares.

Rice production should rise 13.2% to 11.99mn tonnes, while cotton area increased 3.2% to 2mn hectares. Soybean exports are expected to reach 105.47mn tonnes, up from 98.6mn in 2023-2024. Corn exports are forecast at 34mn tonnes, with domestic consumption at 86.4mn tonnes.

In 2024, Brazil’s harvest stood at 292.7mn tonnes, down 7.2% from 2023. Total area harvested expanded 1.6% to 79mn hectares despite weather challenges including the historic floods in Rio Grande do Sul in May 2024 and heat stress in other parts of the country affecting multiple crops.

The projections for this year, however, reflect Brazil’s growing dominance in global agricultural markets, particularly in soybeans and corn, with the country firmly installed as one of the world’s key breadbaskets.

 

Palm Oil May Decline to 4,000 Ringgit on Higher Output: Mistry

Palm oil prices are likely to be soft this year, with futures trading around 4,000 ringgit ($900) a ton unless some main growing areas face weather problems, according to veteran trader Dorab Mistry.

  • Global production may climb in 2024-25, boosting annual supplies by 2.5m tons, said Mistry, a director at Godrej International Ltd. That’s compared with an increase of 1 million tons a year earlier, he said in slides prepared for the Globoil conference in Bangkok Thursday
    • The price outlook depends on how the Indonesian government implements its biofuel policy
    • NOTE: The Southeast Asian nation has started distributing blended diesel containing 40% of palm-based biofuel, against 35% earlier
  • Still, prices may rise to as high as 4,800 ringgit between now and the end of February due to purchases ahead of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, which will begin in March, Mistry said by phone on Thursday
    • NOTE: Mistry predicted in November that palm could trade around 5,000 ringgit/ton through June
    • NOTE: Benchmark palm oil futures fell as much as 1.9% to 4,127 ringgit a ton in Kuala Lumpur on Thursday
  • More from the presentation:
    • India’s total cooking oil imports seen unchanged at 16 million tons in 2024-25: Mistry
    • Palm oil imports may drop to 8.5m tons from 9m tons
    • Soybean oil purchases may rise to 4.5m tons from 3.5m tons
    • Sunflower oil imports will likely fall to 3m tons from 3.5m tons
  • Global demand for vegetable oils for use in food will increase by 2.5m tons in 2024-25, compared with a rise of 3m tons a year earlier

 

Morocco Needs to Consider Reform of Wheat Subsidy: Lekjaa

“It’s high time” to consider the issue of subsidy for wheat flour, Budget Minister Fouzi Lekjaa says at a conference.

  • “We cant manage the wheat market” with subsidies alone
  • Morocco on track to cut debt-to-GDP ratio to 67% in 2026 vs 72% in 2021
  • Morocco 2024 budget deficit was less than 50b dirhams
  • Morocco plans gradual introduction of carbon tax over a 10 year period
    • “We have to meet our international obligations” and preserve, at the same time, the interests of businesses
  • Morocco in talks with the IMF over the carbon tax

 

French Dockers Plan Strikes at Grain Ports Through February

A French union called a series of strikes covering the country’s ports including the biggest grains terminals through the end of February, according to an emailed statement on Wednesday.

  • The National Federation of Ports and Dockers-CGT says the government is stalling talks over issues including pension reform
  • Strike action lasting four hours are planned on 13 days in a period between Jan. 23 and Feb. 28
  • There will also be a 48-hour work halt on Jan. 30-31
  • The union will also maintain a suspension of overtime and special work shifts

 

 

 

 

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