Global Ag News for Jan 22.2025

TOP HEADLINES

S&P Global sees US 2025 corn plantings at 93.5 mln acres, soy 83.3 mln

S&P Global Commodity Insights projected on Tuesday that U.S. farmers would plant 93.5 million acres of corn in 2025, up 700,000 acres from its previous forecast released in December and up 2.9 million acres from 2024, an S&P Global spokesperson said.

The firm forecast U.S. 2025 soybean plantings at 83.3 million acres, down 700,000 acres from its December projection and down 3.8 million acres from 2024.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are unchanged in SRW, up 3/4 in HRW, down 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans down 3; Soymeal down $2.00; Soyoil down 0.01.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 20 in SRW, up 27 3/4 in HRW, up 19 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 4 1/2; Soybeans up 30 1/4; Soymeal up $11.80; Soyoil up 0.07.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 7 1/4 in SRW, up 17 in HRW, up 7 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 30 1/4; Soybeans up 53 3/4; Soymeal down $7.90; Soyoil up 5.40.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans up 19 yuan; Soymeal up 18; Soyoil up 28; Palm oil down 14; Corn down 8 — Malaysian Palm is down 52.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 52 ringgit (-1.22%) at 4208.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 72 Oats; 3 Corn; 262 Soybeans; 1,116 Soyoil; 1,462 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 21 were: SRW Wheat down 4,018 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,416, Corn up 31,364, Soybeans up 7,734, Soymeal up 1,435, Soyoil down 916.

 

Brazil: Short-term heat risks and regional high rainfall are in store for Brazil during the next couple weeks. Temperatures through 5 days will be 2-4 °C above normal from Mato Grosso southward, while Northeast Brazil will be 1-2 °C below normal instead. Temperatures will then moderate toward near normal levels across the country as the main change throughout the 6-15 day forecast. 15-day rainfall totals will be 25-100 mm (~1-4 in) along a zone from southern Mato Grosso through Mato Grosso do Sul, and eastward through Minas Gerais, while regions to the south will be 25-50 mm (~1-2 in) drier than normal. Drier weather could expand northward in the first week of February as an item to monitor. For now, dry weather in Southern Brazil will heighten downside risks to corn/soybeans as the main negative crop impact. Crop progress could be slowed slightly in Central-West Brazil from rains, potentially setting back 2nd crop corn plantings as another item to monitor. Cotton centered on Bahia will experience modest rains in the next 1-2 weeks, though long-term rainfall deficits will remain in place, maintaining some concern level even if soil moisture levels are well above 5-year lows. The coffee crop in Southeast Brazil will benefit most from upcoming high rainfall. 

Argentina: Warm and dry weather will prevail along the Argentina Pampas into early February, with better conditions to the north. Temperatures through 5 days will be 1-3 °C above normal over the western Pampas, while areas to the east/north through Paraguay will average out near normal. Warmth will then shift toward the eastern Pampas as the main change in the 6-10 day forecast, potentially intensifying to some extent by the 11-15 day period. 15-day rainfall totals will be 25-50 mm (~1-2 in) drier than normal across the Argentina Pampas, while northern Argentina and Paraguay will receive near normal totals. If MJO trends hold, better rains could develop over Argentina as early February unfolds, an issue to watch closely. In the meantime, drought impacts will intensify for Argentina corn/soybeans, while long-term dryness risks in Paraguay are much more moderate.

Northern Plains: Arctic air moved into the area this past weekend and will linger through Tuesday, providing stress to livestock. Light snow showers are expected to advance through the region through early this weekend but temperatures will begin a warming trend by Wednesday. Temperatures will fluctuate a few degrees above or below average this weekend with another warm up on the way by next week.

Central/Southern Plains: Exposed wheat areas in the southwest Plains may see some winter kill from this burst of cold that will last through the rest of this week. A stronger system will bring accumulating snow on Tuesday, but mainly along the Gulf coast of Texas. Light snow showers will move through the Central Plains this week before another system could bring widespread rainfall to the southeast Plains by this weekend. 

Midwest: Cold air will remain intact across the region for the next few days, causing stress to livestock. Precipitation has been spotty and light throughout the region lately and this pattern looks to continue into the end of January with weak Canadian Clipper systems moving through. By early February, temperatures could warm above average and lead to some thawing in southern areas.

 

The player sheet for Jan. 21 had funds: net buyers of 10,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 6,000 corn, buyers of 14,000 soybeans, buyers of 6,000 soymeal, and sellers of 500 soyoil.

TENDERS

  • WHEAT SALE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender
  • CORN, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Algerian state agency ONAB issued international tenders to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and about 50,000 tons of soymeal
  • FEED GRAIN TENDERS: Iran’s state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn; 120,000 tons of feed barley; and 60,000 tons of soymeal.
  • WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 126,893 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S., Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on Jan. 23.

 PENDING TENDERS

  • WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan purchased 60,000 tons in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday.
  • WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said on Wednesday that it would seek 65,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Feb. 15 and arrive in the country by March 13.
  • RICE TENDERS: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice, with price offers that were due by Jan. 1.
  • BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
  • WHEAT TENDER: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 60,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat.
  • CORN TENDER: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 138,000 metric tons of animal feed corn

 

 

Senior farmer planting sowing seeds

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.541m Tons of Corn for Export, 973k of Soybeans

In week ending Jan. 16, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

  • Soybeans: 973k tons vs 1,357k the previous wk, 1,185k a yr ago
  • Wheat: 262k tons vs 299k the previous wk, 315k a yr ago
  • Corn: 1,541k tons vs 1,442k the previous wk, 747k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Jan. 16

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Jan. 16 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

  • Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 495k tons of the 973k total inspected
  • Japan was the top destination for corn inspections, Mexico led in wheat

 

Brazil 2025 Soy Crop Outlook Raised to 171.7m Tons: Abiove

That’s 3 millions tons more than December’s estimate from industry group Abiove.

  • That compares with soybean production of 153.5m last year, according to statement
  • Estimates for exports in 2025 were also raised by 1.7m tons, to 106.1m tons
    • Abiove updated exports for 2024 to 98.8m tons, from 98.3m tons previously
    • Forecasts cover January-to-December period
  • Total processing outlook for 2025 slightly increased to 57.1m tons, from 55m tons in 2024
  • Soybean ending stocks in 2025 raised to 9.75m tons, 2.2% up from last month’s forecast
    • Ending stocks projection for 2024 reduced by 22%, to 3.59m tons
  • Soymeal exports estimate for 2025 kept at 22.9m tons
    • Industry group raised its forecast for soymeal exports in 2024 by 4.7%, to 23.1m tons
  • Soyoil-export outlook for 2025 maintained at 1.05m tons, while production estimate were slightly raised to 11.5m tons

 

SovEcon Holds Russia’s Wheat Crop Forecast, Sees Weather Risks

Consultant SovEcon held its forecast for Russia’s 2025 wheat production at 78.7m tons, but flagged weather risks to crops, it says in a note.

  • Production forecasts are still seen at the lowest since 2021
  • While the ongoing warm weather has not yet caused significant damage to winter crops, “risks remain elevated”
  • Central and south regions have seen snow thin with soil temperatures exceeding seasonal norms, which heightens risks of winterkill
  • “Although no extreme cold temperatures are forecast in the short term, the current weather setup, combined with the extremely poor condition of crops at the start of winter, means any significant cold snap could result in substantial winterkill”: Andrey Sizov, managing director at SovEcon.

 

Brazil Corn Exports Seen Reaching 3.53 Million Tns In January Versus 2.98 Million Tns Seen In The Previous Week – Anec

  • BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.22 MILLION METRIC TNS IN JANUARY VERSUS 2.19 MILLION TNS SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK- ANEC
  • BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.81 MILLION TNS IN JANUARY VERSUS 1.8 MILLION TNS SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK- ANEC
  • BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 3.53 MILLION TNS IN JANUARY VERSUS 2.98 MILLION TNS SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK- ANEC
  • BRAZIL WHEAT EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 689,278 TNS IN JANUARY VERSUS 662,090 TNS SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK- ANEC

 

India Group Seeks Higher Tax on Refined Palm Oil to Cut Imports

A group of Indian vegetable oil processors has asked the government to widen the import duty difference between refined and crude palm oils to at least 15%, from 7.5% now, to help refiners boost capacity utilization at their existing units.

  • The low duty difference is only helping Indonesian and Malaysian refiners, according to the Solvent Extractors Association of India
  • The group seeks a hike in the tax on refined varieties to 20% in the next federal budget, from 12.5% now
  • NOTE: India’s finance minister will announce her budget proposals for the year 2024-25 on Feb. 1

 

China to Improve Supply of Grain and Agricultural Products

China issues the rural revitalization plan for 2024-2027, aiming to promote agricultural modernization and to strengthen national food security, Xinhua News Agency reports.

  • China aims to achieve “decisive progress” in rural revitalization by 2035
  • To promote urbanization of agricultural migrant population
  • To promote rural consumption
    • To promote new energy vehicles and green smart home appliances in rural areas, and deeply implement trade-in programs
  • To deepen rural land reforms
  • To promote a pilot program for villagers to contract their land for another 30 years after the second round of land contracts expires

 

New Egypt Wheat Importer Supplies 1.1 Million Tons in Past Month

Egypt’s new wheat-import body has provided 1.1 million tons of the grain since December to the authority that helps administer the North African nation’s vast subsidized bread program.

Russian wheat from private sellers made up the vast majority of grain the Mostakbal Misr Agency for Sustainable Development delivered to the General Authority for Supply Commodities in recent weeks, according to GASC Vice Chairman Hossam El Garrahi. The rest was bought from Egyptian traders who sourced it from a variety of origins, he said late last week.

Egypt is one of the world’s biggest wheat buyers, and state purchases are closely followed by the market to help keep track of global trade. Mostakbal Misr in late 2024 replaced GASC as the body overseeing imports. But the lack of known tenders since then and uncertainty over private purchases has made it harder to gauge flows, especially from key Black Sea suppliers.

El Garrahi didn’t say when the 1.1 millions tons of wheat arrived in Egypt. GASC stores the grain it receives and helps distributes it for a food-subsidy system that more than half the country’s 107 million-plus people benefits from. Mostakbal Misr didn’t immediately respond to requests seeking comment.

Egypt, which buys huge amounts of wheat to help feed the Middle East’s largest population, plans to import between 5 million and 6 million tons for the subsidized bread program in the 2024-25 year, El Garrahi said by phone. The country’s total wheat imports in the 2024-25 season are expected to reach 12.5 million tons, the US government estimates.

 

Indonesia agency resumes fund disbursement for biodiesel, palm replanting

Indonesia’s palm oil fund agency has resumed fund disbursement to subsidise biodiesel and oil palm tree replanting programmes after a brief pause during a reorganisation, agency official Achmad Maulizal said on Wednesday.

The disbursement was put on hold last week as the agency introduced changes following a decision to expand its remit to include the management of cocoa and coconut programmes, including their replanting schemes as well.

Disbursement recommenced after the finance ministry issued a decree detailing the new function of the agency, which has been renamed the Plantation Fund Management Agency.

Under the decree made public on Wednesday, the government also tasked the agency with financing programmes for food security and the processing industry for plantation products.

The decree did not mention any new levy collection scheme to support the agency’s expanded role.

Prior to renaming and reorganisation, the agency collected levies on palm oil exports to finance its programmes.

 

LIVESTOCK SURVEY: US Cattle on Feed Placements Seen Up 1.2%

December placements onto feedlots seen rising y/y to 1.72m head, according to a Bloomberg survey of 11 analysts.

  • Estimates range from -2.8% to +7.1% y/y change
  • Feedlot herd as of Jan. 1 seen falling by 0.3% y/y to 11.9m head
  • Marketings seen rising 1.4% y/y

 

US Egg Production Fell 3.3% in December From Year Ago: USDA

The US produced 9.12b eggs in December vs 9.43b in the same period a year ago, according to a report from the USDA.

  • Output of table eggs fell 3.7% y/y to 7.83b
  • Hatching eggs down 0.6% to 1.29b

 

 

 

 

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