Global Ag News for Jan 21.2025

TOP HEADLINES

RFK Jr. Pledge Could Shatter Corn Industry: Farmers Brace for Impact

HHS Secretary-designate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s pledge to ban high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) and seed oils has reportedly raised concerns among corn farmers, particularly in key Trump-supporting regions like western Ohio.

Corn farming in this area is a major industry, and a significant portion of the crop is used to produce HFCS, a sweetener found in a wide range of processed foods, reports The Guardian.

Kennedy, selected by President-elect Donald Trump to head the Department of Health and Human Services, has been vocal about his desire to reduce the use of HFCS, which he links to health issues like obesity and diabetes.

With about 8% of U.S. corn dedicated to HFCS production, farmers worry that any shift away from this market could drastically impact their incomes.

Experts estimate that up to 1.4 billion bushels of corn could be displaced if a ban is implemented, leading to a potential drop in prices.

However, while concerns are real, many farmers in Ohio’s Darke and Shelby counties, where Trump enjoys strong support, are adopting a “wait-and-see” approach, the report adds.

The U.S. Corn Refiners Association, which represents major agribusinesses, declined to comment on the potential impact of Kennedy’s stance.

Meanwhile, some farmers, like Dan Kelley from Illinois, are more focused on external factors such as global competition and trade tariffs than on Kennedy’s health-focused policies, The Guardian adds.

Despite Kennedy’s outspoken views on food reform, experts don’t expect immediate changes to the HFCS market.

Although corn and seed crops are a significant component of U.S. agriculture, the demand for high fructose corn syrup has dropped by nearly 50% since 1999.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 9 1/4 in SRW, up 8 1/4 in HRW, up 6 in HRS; Corn is up 3 1/2; Soybeans up 19; Soymeal up $5.00; Soyoil up 0.41.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 3 in SRW, down 4 1/4 in HRW, down 4 in HRS; Corn is up 11 1/4; Soybeans unchanged; Soymeal down $5.60; Soyoil up 0.11.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 3 1/2 in SRW, down 2 1/2 in HRW, down 6 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 29 1/4; Soybeans up 42 1/2; Soymeal down $14.70; Soyoil up 5.74.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans up 15 yuan; Soymeal up 40; Soyoil up 72; Palm oil up 50; Corn down 10 — Malaysian Palm is up 54.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 54 ringgit (+1.28%) at 4260.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 72 Oats; 3 Corn; 262 Soybeans; 1,116 Soyoil; 1,462 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 17 were: SRW Wheat up 3,307 contracts, HRW Wheat up 5,885, Corn up 50,918, Soybeans up 12,128, Soymeal up 3,126, Soyoil up 319.

 

Brazil: Mild warmth should prevail over Central Brazil through the next 10 days, mostly with temperatures between 1-2 °C above normal. Heat is likely to emerge temporarily in the Southeast and part of the southern anomalies up to 3-4 °C above normal. A cooling trend is likely to arrive over the 11-15 day timeframe. As for precipitation, the South Atlantic Convergence Zone affecting southern Brazil will be weaker than previously expected. According to the latest 5-day forecasts, the southern areas of Itaipu and Iguacu will observe relatively moderate rainfall totals, with very local rainfall surpluses up to 20-30 mm above normal in Paraná. At the same time, drier than normal conditions will span Central West and most eastern areas. In the next week, rainfall activity should intensify but will shift toward the South-Central, Southeast and Northeast regions. For these regions, there is a high potential for heavy totals up to 40-70 mm above normal. Consequently, it will result in a drying trend in the far south. 

Argentina: Temperatures through the next 10 days will fluctuate around the average, although the overall pattern will be divided. The areas of western and central Pampas will be 1-2 °C warmer than normal, while the eastern corp regions will trend cooler (1-3 °C below normal). Apart from the far north, most Pampas will be dry throughout the next 7 days, recording deficits down to 30 mm below normal. The recent forecasts show some potential for more widespread rains in the mid-next week, but this outcome is highly uncertain for now.

 

The player sheet for Jan. 17 had funds: net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 20,000 corn, buyers of 10,000 soybeans, buyers of 3,500 soymeal, and buyers of 5,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: The TFMA group of animal feed importers in Thailand is believed to have purchased around 195,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in a tender this week.
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 126,893 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S., Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on Thursday. 

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN, BARLEY & SOYMEAL TENDERS: Iran’s state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, 120,000 tons of feed barley and 60,000 tons of soymeal
• RICE TENDERS: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice, with price offers that were due by Jan. 1, traders said. It also issued another tender for 50,000 metric tons of rice, with price offers that were due by Jan. 9
• FEED GRAIN TENDERS: Algerian state agency ONAB issued international tenders to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal-feed corn, 35,000 tons of feed barley, and 70,000 tons of soymeal
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.

 

 

 

TODAY

Brazil 2024/25 Soy Harvest 1.7% Done as of Jan. 16: AgRural

Compares with to 0.3% a week earlier and 6% in the same period last year, according to an emailed report from AgRural.

• Number is the lowest for this time of year since the 2020/21 harvest
• Winter corn planting in Center-South region is 0.3% done, compared with 4.9% a year before
  • That’s the slowest start of winter corn planting since 2021
  • Summer corn harvest is 4.1% complete, which compares to 1.3% a week earlier and 7.9% a year before

 

CORN/CEPEA: Prices continue firm in Brazil

Corn prices continue firm in the domestic market because of the fact that sellers are refrained from closing trades, of projections indicating low stocks and of the firm demand. The need to replenish inventories kept some purchasers willing to close deals in the spot market, while producers remain focused on crop activities. This upward trend, however, was interrupted on January 16, when international corn values dropped.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) moved up only 0.1% between January 9 and 16 and 2.4% in the partial of this month (up to Jan. 16), closing at BRL 74.42 per 60-kilo bag on Jan. 16. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, in the same comparison, corn values increased 0.7% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 0.5% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

2023/24 ending stocks were estimated by Conab at 2.53 million tons, below the 4.42 million tons projected in December, due to the increase of shipments, to 38.5 million tons. Conab also indicated a consumption at 83.56 million tons in the 2023/24 crop-year; therefore, the monthly average of consumption would be at 6.96 million tons. In other words, current stocks would not be enough for one month.

The 2024/25 production is expected at 119.55 million tons, 3.3% more than in the season before, especially because of the higher output in the second crop.

Considering total production, initial stocks and imports, the supply is estimated at 123.78 million tons in 2025, only 0.7% smaller than in 2024. Conab estimates shipments to be smaller this year, at 34 million tons, 4.5 million tons less than in the season before.

CROPS – Up to Jan. 12, the harvesting of the summer crop had reached 2.3% of the area in Brazil, while second crop planting activities had totaled 0.2%, according to data from Conab.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Prices have distinct trends in the US and in BR

Soybean quotations registered distinct behaviors in the United States and in Brazil this week. International prices were boosted by estimates of smaller production in the US and by the firm demand. Domestic values, in turn, were pressed down by expectations of a record crop in Brazil. Liquidity has been lower over the last days in the domestic market, since the remaining product of the 2023/24 season is small and the 2024/25 harvesting is still in the beginning.

The USDA indicated that the 2024/25 global soybean crop may total 424.25 million tons, 0.7% down compared to that estimated in the previous report, but still a record.

In the US, the output was estimated by the USDA at 118.84 million tons, for a decrease of 2.13% compared to that released in the previous report. This scenario surprised players and boosted soy futures.

As for Brazil, the USDA projects the 2024/25 crop at the record of 169 million tons, 10.5% more than in the past season. Conab, in turn, indicated production at the record of 166.33 million tons. This institution also says that 0.3% of the area had been harvested up to January 12.

 

Governor of Brazil’s top farm state to veto law that sought to weaken environmental protections

The governor of Brazil’s largest farm state Mato Grosso said on Monday he would veto a state bill that sought to weaken protections for endangered biomes inside state borders, following broad criticism from climate activists.

The law would allow areas currently located in the Amazon biome to be converted into Cerrado areas based on the height of trees.

That meant that Mato Grosso properties sitting on the Amazon biome, which have to protect 80% of native vegetation as per Brazil’s Forestry Code, could have been converted into Cerrado areas, which have to preserve a much lower 35%.

In a statement from the Mato Grosso state on Monday evening, Governor Mauro Mendes said he decided to fully veto the bill after hearing a technical opinion and the sectors involved in the matter.

Mendes added that a new bill, “consistent with the environmental laws”, will be presented in up to 90 days.

Suely Araujo, public policy coordinator at the Climate Observatory, called the proposed law unconstitutional in an interview earlier on Monday, arguing it conflicted with federal statutes. She said it could be challenged in the courts.

“The new legislation could cause an increase in deforestation estimated at 5.2 million hectares… an area the size of Costa Rica,” IPAM, the Amazon Environmental Research Institute, said in a statement.

The measure Mendes said he would veto was approved in the first days of January by lawmakers in Mato Grosso, which produces almost as much soybeans as Argentina and nearly a quarter of Brazilian fresh beef exports.

Earlier in the day, the office of governor Mendes said it had proposed something entirely different from the text approved by the state legislature, but declined to comment on a potential veto.

Pressure from farm groups to open up more areas for large scale agriculture projects is rising.

As a response, Mato Grosso recently passed a law removing tax breaks for grain traders enforcing the “soy moratorium,” a voluntary agreement whereby exporters ban farmers who cultivated soy in a deforested area after 2008.

Next month, the Supreme Court will rule on whether that law is constitutional.

 

Indonesia Dec. Palm Oil Exports Fall 4.9% M/m: Intertek

Indonesia’s palm oil exports fell 4.9% m/m in December, according to Intertek Testing Services.

• Palm oil exports fell to 1.907m tons from 2.005m tons in November
• Crude palm oil shipments fell to 57,213 tons from 229,421 tons in November
• RBD palm olein shipments fell to 790,953 tons from 871,300 tons in November
• RBD palm oil shipments rose to 420,021 tons from 378,229 tons in November
• Palm oil sales to European Union rose to 256,405 tons from 216,807 tons in November
• Palm oil sales to India fell to 533,790 tons from 743,555 tons in November
• Palm oil sales to China fell to 272,215 tons from 364,167 tons in November

 

Argentina likely back as No. 2 barley exporter with current harvest

Argentina will likely regain its status as the second-biggest barley exporter as the current harvest wraps up, the Rosario grains exchange said on Friday, as the area sown with the crop expanded and other key exporters like Russia expect to ship less.

Barley is widely used for livestock feed, as well as to make malt for beer and other alcoholic drinks.

Argentina’s 2024/25 barley crop is forecast to yield 4.9 million metric tons with exports for the cycle seen reaching 3.4 million tons, according to a report by the exchange.

Australia is seen holding on to its status as the world’s top barley exporter, with France likely to take the No. 3 spot.

Argentine farmland planted with barley this season is forecast at 1.6 million hectares, according to official data, which would mark an increase of nearly 9% compared to the previous season.

The current crop’s expected yield is based on a national production estimate of 3,420 kilograms per hectare, the exchange added. Harvesting is seen wrapping up later this month.

The South American nation is also a major global supplier of processed soybeans, corn and wheat, with proceeds from sales providing central bank coffers with much-needed hard currency.

The top destination in recent years for Argentine barley used for beer has been neighboring Brazil, while China has been its largest export market for barley used to fatten livestock.

The Rosario grains exchange highlighted a recent expansion of Brazil’s malt-producing capacity, which should bolster its expectation for the growth in exports.

 

Ukraine steps up grain exports in 2024-25 marketing year

Ukraine has exported 24.19m tonnes of grain and beans since the start of the 2024-25 marketing year in summer 2024, the Interfax-Ukraine news agency reported on 20 January, citing the Agriculture Ministry’s report.

This is 2m tonnes more than in the same period of the 2023-24 marketing year, the agency noted.

In particular, in the 2024-25 marketing year Ukraine exported 10.33m tonnes of wheat 2m tonnes of barley, 22,000 tones of rye and 1.42m tonnes of corn.

Also, as of 20 January, Ukraine exported 40,200 tonnes of flour, including 36,800 of wheat flour, the agency said.

 

Russia increases wheat exports to China 2.5-fold in 2024 to $87.3 mln -Chinese customs

China imported Russian wheat worth $87.252 million in 2024, up 2.5-fold compared to 2023 when the figure stood at $34.71 million, according to materials of China’s General Administration of Customs.

However, supplies of Russian wheat fell 83.3% in December in annual terms, from $4.8 million to $786,200.

Australia was the largest supplier of wheat to China in 2024 at $1.079 billion, followed by Canada at $873.775 million, France at $707.516 million, the U.S. at $599.54 million and Kazakhstan at $133.66 million. China imported wheat from eight countries last year. Russia ranked sixth in its imports.

According to the General Administration of Customs, supplies of Russian barley rose from $110.3 million in 2023 to $177.1 million in 2024. However, exports fell to $9.3 million in December from $20.3 million a year earlier. China bought barley from ten countries in 2024. The biggest supplier, as with wheat, was Australia at $1.46 billion. Canada ($564.9 million), France ($555.3 million) and Argentina ($450.3 million) also actively exported barley to the country.

As reported, Russia is currently permitted to export only spring wheat and barley to China. However, winter wheat and barley have the greatest potential, according to Russian experts. Russia is seeking to achieve permission to supply this crop to the Chinese market.

According to the General Administration of Customs, China bought Russian corn worth $36.2 million in 2024, up 2.5-fold compared to 2023 when the figure stood at $91.7 million. Imports fell year-on-year in December 2024 from $8.1 million to $7.4 million. The top three suppliers of corn to China in 2024 were Brazil at $1.9 billion, Ukraine at $1.1 billion and the U.S. at $560.6 million.

 

US Pork Production Up 4.2% This Week, Beef Rises: USDA

US federally inspected pork production rises to 572m pounds for the week ending Jan. 18 from 549m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Hog slaughter up 3.8% from a week ago to 2.627m head
• Beef production up 2.9% from a week ago, cattle slaughter rises 2.4%
• For the year, beef production is 9.7% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 8.7% below

 

 

 

 

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