TOP HEADLINES
NOPA December US soybean crush seen at record 205.498 million bushels
The U.S. soy crush likely swelled to a record high in December, boosted by ample crushing supplies and expanded processing capacity as several new plants have recently come online, according to analysts polled ahead of a National Oilseed Processors Association report due on Wednesday.
The report will include crush data from two facilities that opened last year in Cherryvale, Kansas, and Casselton, North Dakota, for the first time, NOPA told Reuters.
NOPA members, who handle at least 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, were estimated to have crushed a record 205.498 million bushels last month, according to the average of estimates from eight analysts surveyed by Reuters.
If realized, it would be up 6.4% from the 193.185 million bushels crushed in November and up 5.2% from December 2023 when processors crushed a then-record 195.328 million bushels.
U.S. soy crush capacity has expanded in recent years to meet growing demand for vegetable oils as a biofuel feedstock.
Crush estimates for December ranged from 202.000 million to 209.500 million bushels, with a median of 205.500 million bushels.
The NOPA report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CST (1700 GMT) on Wednesday.
Soyoil stocks held by NOPA members as of Dec. 31 were projected to rise to 1.253 billion pounds, based on estimates from five analysts.
If the estimate is realized, it would be up 15.6% from 1.084 billion lbs at the end of November but down 7.9% from the 1.360 billion lbs held by NOPA members a year ago.
Oil stocks estimates ranged from 1.178 billion to 1.298 billion lbs, with a median of 1.250 billion lbs.
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are down 1 1/2 in SRW, down 4 1/2 in HRW, down 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2; Soybeans up 3; Soymeal up $2.70; Soyoil down 0.21.
For the week so far wheat prices are up 14 in SRW, up 4 1/2 in HRW, up 4 in HRS; Corn is up 6; Soybeans up 25 1/4; Soymeal up $10.20; Soyoil up 0.43.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 6 3/4 in SRW, down 3 in HRW, down 7 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 18; Soybeans up 40; Soymeal down $8.40; Soyoil up 5.65.
Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans up 18 yuan; Soymeal up 5; Soyoil up 4; Palm oil down 126; Corn down 1 — Malaysian Palm is down 75.
Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 75 ringgit (-1.69%) at 4362.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 72 Oats; 6 Corn; 262 Soybeans; 1,116 Soyoil; 1,466 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 14 were: SRW Wheat down 6,312 contracts, HRW Wheat up 128, Corn up 27,557, Soybeans down 322, Soymeal up 7,503, Soyoil up 318.
Brazil: Widespread wet season showers continue in central and northern Brazil, favorable for filling soybeans, but hampering the very early harvest. The main harvest period does not start for another week, so the rain is overall favorable. However, if rainfall continues to be heavy for the end of January and into February, it may have more of an impact on harvesting soybeans and planting safrinha corn. Showers across the south have been much less frequent, which has been a problem for filling soybeans in Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana and pollinating to filling corn in Rio Grande do Sul. A front moving through this weekend is looking to bring more widespread precipitation.
Argentina: Soil moisture is falling in many areas of Argentina with very little showers and temperatures well above normal in the 90s and 100s, leading to declining crop conditions. We should see a burst of showers moving through later in the week and weekend, but any heavy amounts may be limited. Models disagree on the amount of precipitation that is expected to fall, but dry conditions are expected to follow well into next week.
Northern Plains: It should be drier and warmer for most of the week until another front moves through on Friday. Scattered light snow will occur behind the front over the weekend, but very cold air will move in for a few days. While some moderation will be possible for the second half of next week, more cold air is likely to flow in toward the end of the week or weekend.
Central/Southern Plains: A front and system will move through Friday and Saturday, bringing scattered showers, but also another burst of very cold air. Exposed wheat areas may see some winter kill from this burst of cold that should last well into next week.
Midwest: Lake-effect snow and a small band of snow continue on Tuesday. Temperatures will rise the next few days, especially in the northwest. But a system moving through this weekend should bring through a burst of showers as a mix of rain and snow and will be followed by a burst of extremely cold air through most of next week.
Lower Mississippi: Water levels remain above the low-water mark in most of the Mississippi and Ohio River systems, making for mostly easy transportation. Northern areas of the Mississippi Basin are getting drier though, and could use some precipitation to keep water levels up. A system moving through this weekend could help that somewhat.
The player sheet for Jan. 14 had funds: net buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 3,500 corn, buyers of 1,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and buyers of 2,000 soyoil.
TENDERS
- SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 198,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China for shipment in the 2024/25 marketing year.
- WHEAT PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender.
- CORN PURCHASE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Wednesday
- WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 132,888 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S., Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on Jan. 16.
PENDING TENDERS
- RICE TENDERS: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice, with price offers due by Jan. 1, traders said. It also issued another tender for 50,000 metric tons of rice, with price offers due by Jan. 9
- BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
TODAY
ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report
Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Jan. 10 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
- Production seen lower than last week at 1.095m b/d
- Stockpile avg est. 24.656m bbl vs 24.148m a week ago
CROP SURVEY: US December Soybean Crush Seen at 203M Bushels
Projections are based on a survey of up to six analysts conducted by Bloomberg News on Jan. 13-14.
- Soybean crush seen 3.9% higher vs December of last year, and an increase of 5.1% vs a month ago
- Oil stocks at the end of last month seen at 1.253b lbs vs 1.36b a year earlier
- The National Oilseed Processors Association is scheduled to release its monthly report on Jan. 15.
Brazil 2024-25 Soybean Crop Seen at 166.33M Tons: Conab
Output est. raised from 166.21m tons, Brazil’s national supply co. says in its monthly report.
- Analysts in a Bloomberg survey were expecting 168.8m tons
- Yield seen higher at 3,509 kg/ha vs 3,509 kg/ha last month
- Area planted raised to 47.401m ha vs 47.37m ha last month
- Corn production est. cut to 119.6m tons vs 119.6m tons
Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 2.19 Million Tns In January – Anec
- BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.19 MILLION TNS IN JANUARY VERSUS 1.71 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – ANEC
- BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.98 MILLION TNS IN JANUARY VERSUS 2.90 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – ANEC
- BRAZIL WHEAT EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 662,090 TNS IN JANUARY VERSUS 519,290 TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – ANEC
- BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.80 MILLION TNS IN JANUARY VERSUS 1.43 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – ANEC
Brazil’s cereal harvest is expected to grow by 10.2% this year
Brazil’s cereal, legume and oilseed production is expected to total 322.6 million tons in 2025, up 10.2% on 2024 (292.7 million tons), the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBG) said on Tuesday.
The IBGE’s projection is due to improved weather conditions and, for cereals, pulses and oilseeds, was 2.5% higher than the last estimate, made in December last year.
“This growth is due to the recovery of the soybean harvest, which experienced many problems in 2024. This is coupled with favorable weather conditions for crops in most of Brazil, even with a delay in the start of planting,” explained Carlos Guedes, IBGE’s agriculture manager.
“Producers have managed to make up for this delay by using high technology. It has been raining satisfactorily in most producing regions, which is benefiting the crops that are in the field, such as soybeans and corn from the first harvest,” he added.
Soybeans, corn, rice, wheat and beans will boost this year’s grain harvest in the South American country, while cotton production will remain stable and sorghum production will fall.
According to the IBGE, the harvested area is expected to grow by 6.3% for beans, 5.8% for rice and 2.7% for soybeans, while corn is expected to fall by 1.6% in the first planting and is expected to rise by 1.2% in the second.
The agricultural sector is one of Brazil’s economic engines and its impact is fundamental to the country’s economic growth, which is expected to be around 2% this year, according to market analysts’ forecasts.
The Brazilian government expects Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 2.5% in 2025, according to figures released by the Ministry of Finance’s Economic Policy Secretariat (SPE).
EU’s Soft-Wheat Exports Drop 35% Y/y During Season to Jan. 12
EU soft-wheat exports in the season that started July 1 totaled 11.5m tons as of Jan. 12, compared with 17.6m tons a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.
- Leading destinations included Nigeria with about 1.8m tons, Morocco with 1.1m tons and the UK with 904k tons
- Barley exports were 2.3m tons, down 32% y/y
- Corn imports totaled 10.6m tons, up 5% y/y
Russia Sees 2025 Wheat Exports Slipping from Record: Tass
Russia’s exports of wheat this year are seen below the 2024 record due to a lower harvest, Tass reports on Tuesday, citing Deputy Agriculture Minister Maxim Titov.
- However, the share of wheat in the total grain exports this year may edge slightly above the historic average of 80% due to limits on corn, barley and rye exports between February and June, Titov said
- NOTE: USDA’s January Wasde report forecasts Russia’s wheat exports in the 2024-25 season at 46m tons, down 1m tons from last month’s outlook and below last season’s record 55.5m tons
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