Global Ag News for Jan 11

TODAY—EXPORT INSPECTIONS–

Overnight trade has SRW Wheat down roughly 6 cents, HRW down 2; HRS Wheat down 3, Corn is down 2 cents; Soybeans up 8; Soymeal up $2.50, and Soyoil down 30 points.

For the week, SRW Wheat prices were up roughly 1 cent; HRW down 7; HRS up 8; Corn was up 12 cents; Soybeans up 63 cents; Soymeal up $10.00, and; Soyoil up 120 points. Crushing margins were down $0.29 at $0.71 (March); Oil share unchanged at 33%. 

Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 76 yuan in soybeans, up 34 in Corn, up 79 in Soymeal, up 20 in Soyoil, and down 12 in Palm Oil.

Malaysian palm oil prices were down 33ringgit at 3,797 (basis March) on reported record palm oil imports on monthly data; ideas of lower exports.

Brazil looks very good for the coming ten days with all crop areas in the nation getting rain at one time or another. Crop development should advance favorably even though there will be some pockets of moisture stress for a little while early this week.

Argentina remains one of concern especially in the southwest where rainfall is expected to be lightest and least frequent. The entire nation will dry down making this week’s rain extremely important. Soil moisture last Friday was very short. Early indications suggest that most of the driest region will get “some” rain which may offer some short term relief, but it may not be enough in southern Santa Fe, northern Buenos Aires or parts of Entre Rios where greater stress may evolve next week after temporary relief.  It will be imperative that dry weather through Jan. 22 is followed by substantial rain. Without it, crop stress will likely start robbing the nation’s crops of yield once again.

The player sheet had funds net sellers of 3,000 SRW Wheat; bought 5,000 Corn; net bought 15,000 Soybeans; bought 7,000 lots of Soymeal, and; sold 2,000 lots of Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net long 14,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 332,000 Corn; net long 197,000 Soybeans; net long 89,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 113,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 410 contracts; HRW Wheat up 690; Corn up 18,400; Soybeans up 3,400 contracts; Soymeal up 110 lots, and; Soyoil up 5,400.

Deliveries were ZERO Soymeal; ZERO Soyoil; Rice 19; and 61 Soybean.

There were changes in registrations (Soyoil down 24)—Registrations total 49 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 131; Soyoil 1,289 lots; Soymeal 175; Rice 658; HRW Wheat 91, and; HRS 1,023.

Tender Activity— Pakistan bought 100,000t  optional-origin wheat—

Speculators and investors have kicked off the new year with record bullish views in Chicago-traded corn, as global stockpiles are set to shrink. Within the past week, CBOT corn, soybean and wheat futures have all notched prices not seen since 2014. Combined across CBOT corn, wheat, soybeans and soy products, and including Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat, speculators’ total gross longs have hit a record 987,624 futures and options contracts. Prior to 2020, the high was 929,323 contracts in August 2012.

The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday agreed to review a lower court ruling that severely limited the government’s powers to exempt small refineries from the nation’s biofuels law, rekindling a long-running dispute between the oil and corn industries. The decision came after appeals by refining companies that argued the 10th Circuit Court’s decision last year had improperly deprived them of a method to avoid financial hardship granted by Congress.

China sold 2,099,199 tonnes of wheat, or 52.16 % of the total offer at an auction of state reserves last week, the National Grain Trade Center said in a statement on Monday. The average selling price was 2,365 yuan ($358.35) a tonne, the trade centre said.

China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said on Monday it was set to approve the safety of a new genetically modified (GMO) corn variety and a GMO soybean, both produced by local company Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co Ltd. China last year approved three domestically designed GMO crops as safe, the first to gain a safety certificate in a decade.

Argentina has lifted a suspension on corn exports announced in December and will opt instead for a temporary 30,000 tonne daily cap on sales abroad, its agriculture ministry said on Monday, backing off the more restrictive measure that had infuriated farmers. The agriculture ministry said in a statement in the early hours of Monday that it had struck agreements to guarantee the domestic supply of corn and cushion local prices against fluctuations in international markets, allowing it to end the full ban.

France is to extend mass culling of poultry as it faces a “race against time” to contain a bird flu virus sweeping through a duck-breeding area in the southwest, the Agriculture Minister said. France is among the European countries to have reported highly contagious strains of bird flu since late last year, raising fears in the poultry industry of a repeat of the crisis of 2016-17 when tens of millions of birds were slaughtered. Faced with mounting cases of the H5N8 bird flu strain on duck farms in the Landes region, France has slaughtered flocks in affected zones to try to halt transmission of the disease.

Malaysian palm oil inventories in December fell to their lowest in more than 13 years and imports touched a record high as production slumped while exports surged, data from the industry regulator showed on Monday.

According to Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), palm oil end-stocks in the world’s second-largest producer slumped 19% in December to 1.26 million tonnes on-month – the lowest since July 2007 when the country reported stocks of 1.31 million.

Palm oil exports surged 24.7% to 1.62 million tonnes and crude palm oil production fell 10.6% to 1.33 million tonnes, while imports rose to a record 282,058 tonnes, up from 112,663 tonnes in the previous month.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now