TOP HEADLINES
Weak La Niña Expected to Keep Temperatures Volatile
A tough winter may be in store for crops in the Midwest — with a weak La Niña system expected to allow for volatility throughout the winter months. “La Niña events suggest a volatile winter, temperature-wise,” says Jim Roemer of the WeatherWealth newsletter in a note. Seasonably cold weather is expected in the Midwest and U.S. Plains, which may mean a lot of moisture frozen into the soil leading up to the spring. Normal and/or variable temperatures are expected in both the east and west coasts of the U.S. Canada, the Great Lakes, and New England are all expected to receive increased amounts of snow heading into next year. Most-active corn is up 1%, while soybeans are flat and wheat is down 0.1%.
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are up 4 in SRW, up 3 in HRW, up 2 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/2; Soybeans up 1/4; Soymeal up $1.30; Soyoil down 0.19.
Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 15 3/4 in SRW, up 18 in HRW, up 13 in HRS; Corn is up 7 3/4; Soybeans up 9 1/4; Soymeal up $1.00; Soyoil up 1.40.
For the month to date wheat prices are up 13 1/4 in SRW, up 16 in HRW, up 7 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 6 1/2; Soybeans up 4 1/2; Soymeal down $3.20; Soyoil up 1.04.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 13.6% in SRW, down 16.3% in HRW, down 21.4% in HRS; Corn is down 8.3%; Soybeans down 23.1%; Soymeal down 26.5%; Soyoil down 10.6%.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 25) Soybeans up 6 yuan; Soymeal up 5; Soyoil down 20; Palm oil up 4; Corn unchanged — Malaysian Palm is down 8.
Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 8 ringgit (-0.16%) at 5120.
There were changes in registrations (-22 Soybeans). Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 72 Oats; 3 Corn; 356 Soybeans; 369 Soyoil; 1,091 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 6 were: SRW Wheat up 3,131 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,369, Corn up 20,781, Soybeans down 872, Soymeal up 153, Soyoil down 196.
Brazil: Rain went isolated over central Brazil this weekend, but a front moving up from Argentina brought heavier rain to the south that will restart showers again in central Brazil midweek. Another system will move through southern areas Friday and Saturday with more rain. Very few areas are showing signs of having weather issues either being too wet or too dry. Overall conditions are still favorable for flowering to filling soybeans and developing corn.
Argentina: A front brought limited showers to Argentina last week, but did hit some important spots. A system that move through mid-late week will favor the west and north with rainfall, but more of the important areas will stay dry, unfavorable for developing corn and soybeans. Mild temperatures will keep water demand down through next week, but the country needs more rain. While issues are only spotty currently, we could see more trouble spots develop with the pattern continuing to favor scattered or spotty showers over widespread heavy rain.
Northern Plains: It was warm over the weekend but with little precipitation. Some light snow will wrap in behind a system for Sunday night and Monday and light snow could follow a burst of colder air in the Dakotas midweek. Any storm systems that produce good precipitation amounts are forecast to avoid the region over the next 10 days, but with so many in the pipeline, that could change. Drought areas scattered throughout much of the region would enjoy a change in the forecast.
Central/Southern Plains: Scattered showers went through Texas this weekend, but most areas stayed dry. Cold air briefly coming through the region on Monday could produce some snow in the High Plains, but other areas are likely to remain dry. Another system could start to produce showers across the southeast on Friday but amounts do not look heavy. Some storm systems next week could bring in some better precipitation as they are currently forecast to do.
Midwest: Warm temperatures spread through the region over the weekend and some scattered rain is moving through eastern areas. Some milder air will follow the showers, but a burst of cold air will get pushed through the region briefly midweek. That could be enough to produce some streaks of light snow and open up the lake-effect snow machine for a couple of days again. But warmer air will spread back into the region over the weekend and so will a chance for rain showers. A couple of systems next week may bring a mix of rain and snow that could help with the ongoing drought situation.
Lower Mississippi: Showers were moving up the Mississippi River toward the Midwest on Sunday and that could give a brief bump to water levels on the river, but much more is needed. The gauge in Memphis is falling below the low water threshold again and that will likely lead to some restrictions. The pattern may get a little more favorable and active across the basin this weekend and next week, but that is uncertain.
Europe: A massive low-pressure system settled across the southern extent of the continent over the weekend, but brought widespread heavy rain to France, Germany and the UK late last week as well as Italy and the Balkans over the weekend. The system will be torn apart early this week though some showers may linger throughout the week. Organized rainfall may return to portions of the continent this weekend and several systems look to continue the rainfall through most of the continent through the end of the year. Areas in the northwest where wheat is still not dormant have found conditions that are too wet. Otherwise, the continued rainfall should help to boost soil moisture for areas that have been too dry. Parts of Spain and the northeast could use more rain, though.
Black Sea: It was drier over the weekend though a system in southern Europe will see part of that split and move through the region with scattered showers this week. Though most of the region has seen winter wheat go dormant, the coming showers should help to build soil moisture. With how dry the region has been since February, a significant boost in soil moisture is needed for wheat when it breaks dormancy this coming spring.
Australia: Scattered showers moved through the country over the weekend, especially in the east where conditions have been much improved for cotton and sorghum development. The remaining wheat and canola harvest has needed to dodge the rain and some spots may have seen too much rain that has caused delays and some small quality concerns. The country’s agricultural areas will be quieter this week, allowing wet areas to drain a bit.
The player sheet for Dec. 6 had funds: net sellers of 500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 11,000 corn, sellers of 1,000 soybeans, sellers of 3,500 soymeal, and buyers of 5,500 soyoil.
PENDING TENDERS
- RICE TENDERS: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice
- FEED CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued an international tender to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from Argentina or Brazil
- NON-GMO SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase a total of 70,000 metric tons of food-quality soybeans free of genetically modified organisms
- MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat sourced from optional origins
- BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
TODAY
Brazil 2023/24 Soybean Sales 95.6% Completed: Safras
Sales from the 2023 /24 season are equivalent to 95.6% of the expected production as of Dec. 6, according to a report by Safras & Mercado sent by email.
- Pace compares with 92.7% a year earlier, and a five-year average of 95%
- For the 2024/25 season and taking into account an estimated output of 171.78 million metric tons, Safras sees early sales of 31.2%, equivalent to 53.6 million tons
CORN/CEPEA: Sellers are away from closing trades; prices move up
Purchasers in Brazil are away from closing trades in the spot market, and exports are moving at a slow pace, as verified in the entire season. In spite of that, sellers are also away from the market, and corn quotations increased.
While purchasers are focused on the favorable weather conditions, which can increase the volume available in the coming months, and on the slow pace of shipments, which may boost ending stocks, sellers are focused on the development of summer crops. Thus, liquidity is low, which is typical for this period of the year.
The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) rose 0.9% between November 28 and December 5, closing at BRL 73.09 per 60-kilo bag on Dec. 5. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, corn values dropped 0.8% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers), but increased 0.2% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) from November 28 to December 5.
PORTS – Brazilian exports totaled 4.72 million tons of corn in November, 26% smaller than in October and downing 36% compared to Nov/23 – data from Secex. In the accumulated of this year, shipments amounted 30.6 million tons, for a decrease of 30% against the same period in 2023.
Corn quotations moved up 0.6% from Nov. 28 to Dec. 5 at the port of Paranaguá (PR) and 0.4% in Santos (SP). Dollar quotations rose 0.3% against Real in the same comparison, closing at BRL 6.002 on December 5.
CROPS – Up to Dec. 1st, the 2024/25 summer crop planting had reached 65.1% of the area in Brazil, higher than the 60% observed in the same period last year – data from Conab.
SOYBEAN/CEPEA: High dollar values boost liquidity and sustain prices in Brazil
The liquidity is atypically higher in this early December, due to high dollar quotations, which has been attracting players to the spot market. It is worth noting that high dollar values against Real leads the soy from Brazil to be more competitive in the global market, boosting the competition between domestic and international consumers.
However, the volume of deals was limited by the fact that some sellers are away from the market, since they prefer to trade what is left from the 2023/24 season only in early 2025. They are based on the possible delay of the 2024/25 soybean crop, which could boost the demand for prompt-delivery batches to accomplish term contracts.
This scenario sustained soy prices in Brazil. The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Paranaguá) upped only 0.2% from November 28 to December 5, closing at BRL 142.76 per 60-kg bag yesterday. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) rose 1.1% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 140.84 per 60-kg bag on Dec. 5.
On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices increased 1% from Nov. 28 to Dec. 5 in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 0.8% in the wholesale market (deals between processors). The US dollar moved up 0.3% against Real in the same comparison, at BRL 6.002 on Dec. 5. It is worth noting that quotations hit the highest level since the beginning of Plano Real (February 27, 1994) on December 2.
CROPS – The good pace of crop activities in South America prevented values to increase even more. Conab indicates that 90% of the 2024/25 area (of 47.36 million hectares) had been planted in Brazil.
BYPRODUCTS – On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, soymeal prices increased 1.2% between November 28 and December 5. The Brazilian value of soy oil remained stable in the same period, at 7,175.37 BRL per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on Dec. 5.
SHIPMENTS – According to data from Secex, Brazil exported 2.55 million tons of soybeans in November, 45.8% less than in October and 50.8% below that verified in the same month last year. It is the smallest volume since January 2023 (839.58 thousand tons). As a result, Brazilian shipments totaled 96.8 million tons in the partial of 2024 (between January and November), downing 1.26% compared to that registered in the same period of 2023.
As for soybean meal shipments, the volume dropped 27% from October to November and 7.52% against Nov/23, totaling 1.68 million tons. Concerning soy oil exports, the total was 91.85 thousand tons in November, decreasing 3% in one month and 18.8% in one year – data from Secex.
Analyst APK-Inform increases Ukraine’s 2024/25 oilseed harvest, export outlook
Ukraine’s APK-Inform agriculture consultancy has slightly revised up its forecast for the country’s soybean and rapeseed harvest and exports in the 2024/25 July-June season, it said on Monday.
Soybean output is seen at 6.15 million metric tons with exports of 3.55 million tons while the rapeseed harvest is expected at 3.91 million tons with exports of up to 3.35 million tons.
The consultancy said in October that the soybean harvest could total 5.93 million tons and rapeseed 3.90 million tons.
APK-Inform kept its 2024/25 sunflower seed harvest forecast at 13.8 million tons, allowing the production of 6 million tons of sunflower oil.
Ukraine is a major global provider of sunoil but exports could fall to 5.55 million tons in 2024/25 from 6.25 million tons in 2023/24 due to lower production, the consultancy said.
Data from the Ukrainian grain traders union UGA showed that Ukraine’s exports of major oilseeds fell in November as stocks decreased and prices fell.
The first deputy agriculture minister Taras Vysotskiy told Reuters last month that a large Ukrainian soybean harvest had caused a drop in prices and farmers would return to corn in 2025, cutting the area planted with soybeans.
Argentina FX Sales by Crop Exporters Seen Rising 4.4% in 2025
Sales of dollars on Argentina’s FX markets by crop exporters are forecast to grow to $31.5 billion in 2025, up from an estimated $30.2 billion in 2024, the Rosario Board of Trade said in a weekly newsletter.
- Should the current “blended” FX rate continue, $25.2 billion would be sold on the official FX market and $6.3 billion on the financial market
Sheinbaum: GMO Corn Bill to Take Longer on Changes to Imports
Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Friday that a bill on genetically modified corn was taking longer than originally expected.
- Legislators in a congressional committee had previously added a clause restricting imports of yellow corn that, if passed as is, would have a major impact on the Mexican economy: Sheinbaum
- She’s seeking to change the legislation to focus it on prohibiting the planting of genetically modified corn in Mexico
- Lithium mining and salt production happens in open air so we’ll have to review the proposed legislation on open-pit mining: Sheinbaum
- Public Security Chief Omar Garcia Harfuch is meeting with businessmen in Sinaloa after being sent there to bring down crime rate
- Mexico formal job growth 24.7K in November: Mexico Social Security Institute Director Zoe Robledo
- Mexico formal job growth 619K Jan-Nov. 2024, up 2.8%: Robledo
US Beef Production Up 14.5% This Week, Pork Rises: USDA
US federally inspected beef production rises to 532m pounds for the week ending Dec. 7 from 464m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.
- Cattle slaughter up 14.6% from a week ago to 614m head
- Pork production up 14.1% from a week ago, hog slaughter rises 14%
- For the year, beef production is 0.4% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 1.3% above
Egyptian military agency takes over wheat buying from decades-old supply group
- Egypt is one of the world’s largest wheat buyers
- Traders trust decades-old GASC system of purchases
- Army-linked firms flourish under President Sisi
An Egyptian military agency has taken over the country’s import of strategic commodities, a letter seen by Reuters showed, replacing a decades-old state institution to take over international buying tenders and also conduct direct purchases which have in recent weeks shaken the wheat market.
As one of the world’s largest wheat importers, Egypt had relied on the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), part of the Ministry of Supply, to buy the grain for a country where subsidized bread is a staple for 70 million people.
A letter from the ministry to Oksana Lut, Russia’s Minister of Agriculture, said that the Mostakbal Misr Agency for Sustainable Development of the Egyptian Air Forces had become the exclusive body responsible for importing food commodities.
The letter, which was seen by Reuters, said that the new agency had plans to employ direct purchase agreements alongside international tenders, a strategy aimed at streamlining processes but which has raised concerns among global traders.
Firms owned by Egypt’s military have flourished under President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, unsettling some business leaders and foreign investors. The Egyptian government has said these companies were filling gaps in the market.
“Mostakbal Misr Agency will assume all jurisdictions previously held by GASC,” the letter said.
“The Supply Ministry guarantees that the agency has the financial capacity to honour all commitments arising from tenders and direct purchases,” it added.
GASC told Reuters in a written response that the letter is intended to introduce the officials of the new agency.
“This aims to ensure the import of wheat without any difficulties,” it added, citing a cabinet decision to activate the role of Mostakbal Misr’s Authority for Unified Procurement.
The Russian Grain Exporters and Producers Union said it “cannot confirm or deny the existence of this letter”.
“We have not yet received any information through the official channels traditionally used for exchanging information of such importance,” the Russian agency added in a statement.
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