Global Ag News for Dec 31.24

TOP HEADLINES

China approves more GM crops to boost yields, ensure food security

China has approved five gene-edited crop varieties and 12 types of genetically modified (GM) soybean, corn and cotton, expanding approvals to boost high-yield crops, reduce import reliance, and ensure food security.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs awarded safety certificates to the 17 crop varieties, according to a document on its website on Tuesday.

The approved gene-edited crops include two soybean varieties, and one each of wheat, corn, and rice. The approved varieties include seeds from Beijing-based feed group Dabeinong and China National Seed Group, a subsidiary of seeds and pesticides maker Syngenta Group.

Unlike genetic modification, which involves inserting foreign genes into a plant, gene editing alters existing genes to enhance or improve the plant’s traits. Some scientists view gene editing as less risky than genetic modification.

China has also authorised the import of an insect-resistant and herbicide-tolerant GM soybean variety from the German chemicals firm BASF exclusively as a processing material, the ministry added.

Over the past year, the country has increased approvals for higher-yielding GM corn and soybean seeds to raise domestic production and reduce grain imports.

China mostly imports GM crops such as corn and soybeans for animal feed, while cultivating non-GM varieties for food consumption. Many Chinese consumers remain concerned about the safety of GM food crops.

The safety certificates for the newly-approved varieties are valid for five years, starting from December 25, according to the ministry document.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1/2 in SRW, up 1 1/2 in HRW, up 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2; Soybeans up 4 3/4; Soymeal up $3.80; Soyoil down 0.24.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 1 1/2 in SRW, up 1 3/4 in HRW, down 3/4 in HRS; Corn is unchanged; Soybeans up 6 1/2; Soymeal up $5.00; Soyoil up 0.05.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 3/4 in SRW, up 16 1/2 in HRW, up 3 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 21 1/4; Soybeans up 1/2; Soymeal up $18.00; Soyoil down 2.01.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 12.7% in SRW, down 13.4% in HRW, down 17.8% in HRS; Corn is down 3.7%; Soybeans down 23.9%; Soymeal down 20.6%; Soyoil down 17.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans up 25 yuan; Soymeal up 21; Soyoil up 14; Palm oil down 88; Corn down 5 — Malaysian Palm is down 103.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 103 ringgit (-2.26%) at 4448.

 

There were changes in registrations (100 Soybeans). Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 72 Oats; 17 Corn; 250 Soybeans; 879 Soyoil; 1,665 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 30 were: SRW Wheat down 1,790 contracts, HRW Wheat down 404, Corn up 9,880, Soybeans down 23,472, Soymeal down 5,075, Soyoil down 4,240.

 

Brazil: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana:  Isolated showers through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias:  Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.  

Argentina: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires:  Isolated showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires:  Isolated showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday.  

Northern Plains: Isolated showers Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Friday. Outlook: Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures below to well below normal Saturday-Wednesday.  

Central/Southern Plains: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated snow north Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday, below normal northeast and above normal southwest Friday. Outlook: Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Saturday-Sunday, below to well below normal Monday-Wednesday.  

Midwest: West: Scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday. East: Scattered showers Tuesday. Lake-effect snow Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures well above normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday. Outlook: Lake-effect snow showers Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Lake-effect snow Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, below to well below normal Monday-Wednesday.

 

The player sheet for Dec. 30 had funds: net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 5,000 corn, sellers of 1,500 soybeans, sellers of 500 soymeal, and buyers of 1,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

  • SOYBEAN OIL SALE: Exporters sold 23,000 metric tons of U.S. soybean oil to India for delivery during the 2024/25 marketing year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.

 PENDING TENDERS

  • FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
  • RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
  • RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

Hands Across The World

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 878k Tons of Corn for Export, 1.569m of Soybeans

In week ending Dec. 26, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

  • Corn: 878k tons vs 1,146k the previous wk, 570k a yr ago
  • Soybeans: 1,569k tons vs 1,774k the previous wk, 970k a yr ago
  • Wheat: 338k tons vs 406k the previous wk, 276k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Dec. 26

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Dec. 26 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

  • Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 751k tons of the 1.57m total inspected
  • Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, and also led in wheat

 

China’s Jan.-Nov. Corn Imports -39.9% Y/y: CCTV

China imported 13.3 million tons of corn January through November, representing a 39.9% y/y decrease, state broadcaster China Central Television reports, citing the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.

Oct. corn imports fell 87.7% y/y to 251,000 tons, the lowest level since Dec., 2019

It is expected that corn imports will continue to remain low in December, and the annual import volume will be 13 million tons less than last year’s

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Production reduces, and imports grow in 2024

After the area had increased for four years, producers reduced the wheat planting in 2024. Significant price drops in 2023 and losses in crops reduced agents’ profits and discouraged them to boost the area in 2024.

A good aspect is that the average productivity partially recovered this year, keeping the supply aligned with that verified in 2023. The demand, in turn, continued firm, resulting in need to import – purchases were the highest in four years.

Data released by Conab indicate that the planted area in 2024 was 11.9% smaller than the previous, totaling 3.061 million hectares. The productivity is estimated at 2,634 kg/ha, 13% more than in the past crop. As a result, the 2024 output is projected at 8.064 million tons, downing 0.4% compared to that in 2023.

PRICES – Wheat values registered slight oscillations in the first quarter of 2024. In the second, quotations were sustained by rises in the international market and of dollar values and by concerns about the wheat planting in Southern Brazil – Rio Grande do Sul state faced critical problems with floods. The offseason period also influenced prices.

The highest price levels of 2024 were verified in July, due to the low availability of wheat and the firm demand. However, crescent imports in the following months pressed down quotations, a scenario that continued to be observed up to the end of the year. From the end of the third quarter on, the progress of the harvesting and favorable stocks at wheat mills reinforced the downward trend.

The progress of the harvesting indicated significant losses in Paraná, but good volumes in Rio Grande do Sul, different from what was observed in 2023. Productivity dropped 20% in Paraná this year, to 2.06 tons per hectare, while it increased 59.1% in Rio Grande do Sul, to 3.07 tons/ha. In Santa Catarina, the productivity rose 72.1%, to 3.7 tons/ha.

 

Indonesia Raises Unhusked Rice, Corn Prices for Govt Purchases

The Indonesian government will accommodate all rice and corn production from farmers at the set price, Coordinating Minister for Food Affairs Zulkifli Hasan says in statement late Monday.

  • Govt will buy unhusked rice from farmers at 6,500 rupiah per kg, from 6,000 rupiah per kg
    • Indonesia will not import rice next year amid improving local production
  • Price of corn also increased to 5,500 rupiah per kg, from 5,000 rupiah per kg
  • This is expected to boost farmers’ welfare, nation’s food self-sufficiency
  • NOTE: Govt buys rice and corn from local farmers through state-owned company Bulog to build reserves and stabilize prices

 

Indonesia Faces Costly Biofuel Expansion After Palm Oil Surges

  • Government plans to raise blending requirement to 40% in 2025
  • Revision of export levies still being prepared, official says

Indonesian consumers, fuel retailers and palm oil producers are facing higher costs from the government’s plan to expand its biofuel program after the price of the tropical oil surged.

The nation plans to increase the volume of palm oil used in its biofuel mix from the start of the new year, and the government typically subsidizes sales of biodiesel to support its blending mandate. However, the jump in palm oil prices has made the cost of the biofuel much more expensive.

To pay for the subsidies, funds are collected from levies on palm oil exports, but that’s likely to fall short given current prices, according to Dida Gardera, part of the steering committee that directs the Oil Palm Plantation Fund Management Agency. The group manages the funds collected from levies.

Indonesia plans to raise the export levy, local news reported earlier this month, and Gardera said the agency was “still preparing the revision.” The nation is raising the volume of palm oil used in its biofuel mix to 40% from 35%, as the government seeks to reduce the import of fossil fuels.

Gardera added that B40 biodiesel will only be subsidized for the public service sector — about 7.5 million kiloliters — given the higher cost. That means fuel retailers will have to absorb the cost or pass it on to consumers.

 

Indonesia Sets CPO Reference Price at $1,059.54/Ton for Jan.

The trade ministry sets lower crude palm oil reference price at $1,059.54 a ton for January from $1,071.67 a ton this month, according to a decree posted on its website.

  • The reference price will keep CPO export tax at $178/ton
  • NOTE: Exporters must also pay additional CPO levy at 7.5% of the reference price

 

 

 

 

 

 

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