Global Ag News for Dec 19.24

TOP HEADLINES

France Free of Bird Flu Outbreaks After Vaccine Drive: Ministry

France declared to the World Organization for Animal Health on Dec. 17 that the country was free of avian flu after months of vaccinations, according to a statement from the Agriculture Ministry.

  • “The return to this status is important news for all the players in the French poultry sectors”: ministry
  • After the depopulation and disinfection efforts at infected farms, monitoring of the last two infected sites was lifted respectively on Dec. 15 in Landes, and on Dec. 16 in Allier
  • Constant vigilance must however be maintained by all players in the sector, given spread of virus among migratory wild birds remains active in Europe

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 8 3/4 in SRW, down 6 in HRW, down 3 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans down 1/2; Soymeal unchanged; Soyoil up 0.34.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 17 1/4 in SRW, down 11 1/2 in HRW, down 8 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 4; Soybeans down 38; Soymeal down $6.20; Soyoil down 2.45.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 15 1/2 in SRW, up 2 in HRW, down 3 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3 1/2; Soybeans down 43 1/4; Soymeal down $11.50; Soyoil down 1.80.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 14.8% in SRW, down 15.0% in HRW, down 18.4% in HRS; Corn is down 7.1%; Soybeans down 26.1%; Soymeal down 27.4%; Soyoil down 16.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans down 38 yuan; Soymeal down 20; Soyoil down 210; Palm oil down 224; Corn up 5 — Malaysian Palm is down 21.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 21 ringgit (-0.46%) at 4508.

There were changes in registrations (-8 Soybeans). Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 72 Oats; 95 Corn; 227 Soybeans; 879 Soyoil; 1,665 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 18 were: SRW Wheat up 955 contracts, HRW Wheat down 234, Corn up 9,838, Soybeans down 446, Soymeal up 4,086, Soyoil up 940.

 

Brazil: Overall good weather conditions continue with scattered wet season showers in central Brazil and fronts continuing to come up from Argentina with scattered showers for southern states. This general pattern is forecast to continue through the end of the year at least, favoring flowering to filling soybeans and developing corn.

Argentina: A front that moves through Wednesday and Thursday will bring some isolated showers, along with another one or two this weekend and early next week. Though precipitation is spotty, it is favored to hit some of the driest areas in the country, especially the high production state of Cordoba on Wednesday. Other areas will be missed though, especially in the southeast, and that could lead to other dry areas developing.

Northern Plains: More widespread cold will follow behind a clipper that moves through Wednesday night and Thursday. The clipper should bring through some needed precipitation to northern areas in the form of a heavy band of snow. Some mixed precipitation and freezing rain is possible on the southern end of the storm across South Dakota. Any cold should not last long as warmer air spreads back in again this weekend. The pattern stays active with multiple systems moving through this weekend and next week, but with little precipitation for the region.

Central/Southern Plains: A front continues to bring showers to the southeast on Wednesday, but wheat areas in the west are drier, a continued pattern since a wet November. The pattern may be a little more favorable for precipitation next week as several systems move through with potential for precipitation, mostly in the form of rain with very warm temperatures in the region.

Midwest: A system moving through on Wednesday is producing scattered showers, with thunderstorms near the Ohio River. A clipper moving through Thursday and Friday will bring through a band of heavier snow to the north, while also bringing through some briefly colder air and lake-effect snow for the weekend. The pattern stays active next week with several systems moving through and some drought reduction is possible as temperatures rise well above normal to end the year.

Lower Mississippi: Recent showers in the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys have given a bump to water levels on the river and the pattern is favoring more rain in the basin through next week with several systems and fronts. That should help to give a longer bump in water levels along the river, removing restrictions for transport across the Lower Mississippi for a while.

Europe: Several waves of systems, fronts, and showers are forecast to move through the continent through early next week, keeping up overly wet soils in the northwest, but maintaining or improving soil moisture for most other areas. Spain is forecast to be on the lighter end, though, and could use more rain.

Black Sea: Wheat went dormant in good condition in the west, but poor condition in the east, particularly in southwestern Russia. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter for when the wheat breaks dormancy in the spring. Scattered showers fell over the weekend and early this week and a system or two are forecast to move through next week that could be beneficial.

Australia: The pattern is certainly drier to end the year with only limited showers the next two weeks. That helps with the remaining wheat and canola harvest, but will dry out soils for cotton and sorghum after recent rains had improved conditions there.

 

The player sheet for Dec. 18 had funds: net sellers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 9,000 corn, sellers of 16,500 soybeans, sellers of 6,000 soymeal, and sellers of 4,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

  • SOYMEAL SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Wednesday confirmed private sales of 120,000 metric tons of U.S. soybean cake and meal for delivery to Colombia during the 2024/25 marketing year.
  • CORN SALES: USDA also confirmed private sales of 135,000 metric tons of U.S. corn for delivery to Colombia for delivery during the 2024/25 marketing year.
  • SOFT WHEAT AND DURUM WHEAT TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency has issued an international tender to purchase about 100,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat and around 100,000 tons of durum wheat
  • WHEAT TENDER: A group of South Korean flour mills has issued a tender to purchase around 90,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States and Canada
  • FEED BARLEY PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grain buyer has purchased 60,000 metric tons of animal feed barley to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender which closed on Wednesday, European traders said.
  • DURUM WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have purchased durum wheat in an international tender on Wednesday.
  • WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 77,220 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S. and Australia in a regular tender on Thursday.
  • FEED WHEAT IMPORT: Japan will import 4,000 tonnes of feed-quality wheat for livestock use via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that closed late on Wednesday, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said. The ministry had sought 65,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by February 7, 2025 and arrive in Japan by March 6.

 PENDING TENDERS

  • CORN TENDER: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 138,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
  • RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

interconnected globe

 

 

TODAY

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 0.1% to 22.636M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

  • Analysts were expecting 22.874 mln bbl
  • Plant production at 1.103m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.079m

 

Brazil 2024/2025 soybean crop seen at 170.41 million tons, says Patria Agronegocios

BRAZIL 2024/2025 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT 170.41 MILLION TONS – PATRIA AGRONEGOCIOS CONSULTANCY

BRAZIL 2024/2025 TOTAL CORN CROP SEEN AT 129.27 MILLION TONS

 

French Soft-Wheat 2024-25 Stocks Estimate Raised 2.7%: Agrimer

French soft-wheat stockpiles at the close of the 2024-25 season are now seen at 2.87m tons, up from a November est. of 2.79m tons, crops office FranceAgriMer said in a report Wednesday.

  • That’s down 9.9% from 2023-2024
  • Country’s soft-wheat exports in the 2024-25 season seen at 9.76m tons, down from a November estimate of 9.89m tons
  • That’s 41% lower y/y

BARLEY

  • Stockpiles forecast at 1.37m tons, from 1.38m tons est. in November
  • Export outlook seen at 4.951m tons from 5.053m tons last month

CORN

  • Stockpiles seen at 2.68m tons from previous 2.36m tons est.
  • Exports forecast at 4.67m tons from previous 4.76m tons est.

 

EU Wheat Crop to Rise, World Outlook ‘Rather Tight’: Strategie

EU winter-wheat growing conditions have been good so far for the coming 2025-26 season, analysts at Strategie Grains said in a report.

  • Bigger plantings and better yields are expected to lift soft-wheat production about 11% vs the prior year
  • There may also be a “marked increase” in European soft-wheat exports in 2025-26, due to a drop in Russian availability
  • “Russia’s winter wheat is currently in a precarious condition”
  • READ: SovEcon Cuts Russia’s Wheat Crop Forecast to Lowest Since 2021
  • Still, at the global level, the wheat balance sheet “indicates a rather tight outlook” for 2025-26
  • Average prices for wheat and barley expected to rise y/y

 

LIVESTOCK SURVEY: US Dec. 1 Hog Herd Seen at 75.61M Head

Dec. 1 hog inventory seen rising to 75.61m head from 75.46m head in the same period last year, according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of nine analysts.

  • Breeding inventory seen up 0.1% y/y, and market hogs seen rising 0.2% y/y
  • The Sept-Nov pig crop seen rising by 0.8% y/y to 34.81m head
  • Sept-Nov farrowing seen falling by 0% y/y
  • Forrowing intentions for Dec-Feb seen up 0.2% and March-May seen up 0.2%

 

India extends halt on futures trading in key farm commodities until January

India extended the suspension of trading in derivative contracts for key farm commodities until January, as the world’s largest importer of vegetable oils and a major producer of wheat and rice seeks to curb food inflation.

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) initially ordered a year-long suspension of futures trading in key farm commodities in 2021 — a significant move since futures trading was allowed in 2003.

The suspension was first extended until December 20, 2023, and later to December 20, 2024.

In a notification issued late on Wednesday, SEBI said the suspension of trading in futures contracts would now continue until January 31, 2025, on soybean and its derivatives, crude palm oil, wheat, paddy rice, chickpeas, green gram and rapeseed.

“Instead of extending the ban for a year as it did in the past two instances, it has extended it for only one month. This is a good sign. Perhaps futures trading will be allowed early next year,” said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house.

The Indian vegetable oil industry has been seeking the resumption of futures trading to help importers hedge their risks and provide oilseed growers with an indication of future price movements.

The resumption of futures trading in soybean, rapeseed, and their derivatives would help bring stability to oilseed prices, said B V Mehta, executive director of The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

India meets nearly two-thirds of its edible oil requirements through imports, primarily of palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia, as well as soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine.

India’s National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), which derives most of its volume from trading in farm commodities, was the most affected by the government’s decision, followed by the Multi Commodity Exchange

 

 

 

 

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