Global Ag News for Dec 17.24

TOP HEADLINES

NOPA November US soybean crush dips to 193.185 million bushels

The U.S. soybean crush declined in November from an all-time high a month earlier and fell short of most trade estimates, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Monday.

NOPA members, which account for about 95% of U.S.-processed soybeans, crushed 193.185 million bushels of the oilseed last month, below the average estimate of 196.713 million bushels in a Reuters poll of 10 analysts.

Crush estimates for November ranged from 191.000 million to 207.000 million bushels, with a median of 195.911 million bushels.

The November crush was down 3.4% from a record October crush of 199.943 million bushels, a figure that NOPA revised slightly downward on Monday from a previously reported 199.959 million bushels.

It was still the largest November crush on record, up 2.2% from the November 2023 crush of 189.038 million bushels, and the fourth-largest ever for any month, according to NOPA data.

The average daily processing rate of 6.440 million bushels in November was also the second-strongest pace on record, although it was down slightly from October’s record of 6.450 million bushels a day, according to NOPA data.

U.S. crush capacity has grown in recent years as processors built several new plants and expanded existing ones to meet surging vegetable oil demand from biofuels makers. Maintenance downtime at a large Des Moines, Iowa, plant last month kept a lid on the monthly crush, analysts said.

Soyoil stocks among NOPA members as of Nov. 30 increased to 1.084 billion pounds, from an upwardly revised 1.074 billion pounds at the end of October. Analysts, on average, had expected stocks to rise to 1.123 billion pounds, according to estimates from seven analysts. Soyoil stocks estimates ranged from 1.021 billion to 1.178 billion lbs, with a median of 1.130 billion lbs.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3/4 in SRW, down 2 in HRW, down 2 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans down 1/2; Soymeal down $1.50; Soyoil up 0.01.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 5 1/4 in SRW, down 1 1/2 in HRW, down 2 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3 3/4; Soybeans down 10 1/4; Soymeal down $1.50; Soyoil down 0.90.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 1 1/4 in SRW, up 16 1/2 in HRW, up 5 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 12 3/4; Soybeans down 10 1/2; Soymeal down $5.70; Soyoil up 0.01.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 12.9% in SRW, down 13.5% in HRW, down 17.6% in HRS; Corn is down 5.4%; Soybeans down 24.2%; Soymeal down 26.1%; Soyoil down 12.8%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans down 28 yuan; Soymeal down 13; Soyoil down 26; Palm oil down 108; Corn down 8 — Malaysian Palm is down 33.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 33 ringgit (-0.69%) at 4725.

 

There were changes in registrations (-28 Corn, -77 Soybeans). Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 72 Oats; 115 Corn; 235 Soybeans; 879 Soyoil; 1,665 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 16 were: SRW Wheat up 4,298 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,545, Corn up 4,259, Soybeans down 3,658, Soymeal up 1,503, Soyoil down 4,035.

 

Brazil: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana:  Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.  

Argentina: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires:  Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires:  Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Friday.

Central/Southern Plains: Scattered showers southeast through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, above to well above normal Sunday-Wednesday. 

Midwest: West: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers north Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to below normal north and above normal south Wednesday-Thursday, below normal Friday. East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday.  Outlook: Lake-effect snow Saturday-Sunday. Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday, above to well above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

 

The player sheet for Dec. 16 had funds: net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 5,000 corn, sellers of 8,000 soybeans, and sellers of 3,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

  • WHEAT SALE: Saudi Arabia’s main state wheat buying agency the General Food Security Authority (GFSA) has purchased 804,000 metric tons of hard wheat in an international tender, it said on Monday. A statement from the GFSA confirmed earlier reports from grain traders that the purchase was well above the 595,000 tons sought in the tender.
  • CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased about 66,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday
  • DURUM WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to purchase a nominal 50,000 metric tons of durum wheat.

 PENDING TENDERS

  • WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 77,220 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S. and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on Thursday.
  • FEED WHEAT TENDER: Importers in the Philippines tendered to purchase around 60,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat
  • WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
  • FEED WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 65,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Feb. 7 and arrive in Japan by March 6, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on Dec. 18.
  • FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley

 

Globe with candlestick charting

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.13m Tons of Corn for Export, 1.676m of Soybeans

In week ending Dec. 12, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

  • Wheat: 298k tons vs 248k the previous wk, 285k a yr ago
  • Corn: 1,130k tons vs 1,058k the previous wk, 960k a yr ago
  • Soybeans: 1,676k tons vs 1,737k the previous wk, 1,425k a yr ago

 

China’s Crop Import Curbs Are Causing a Shortage of Soybeans

  • Beans facing unusually long wait times at customs, traders say
  • Some crushers have been forced to suspend operations, they say

The Chinese government’s efforts to limit agricultural imports this year is causing a soybean shortage in the south of the country by leading to longer-than-usual wait times at customs, according to traders with knowledge of the matter.

Some soybean crushers in the oilseed processing hub of Dongguan in Guangdong province have had to suspend operations for the last three weeks as they can’t get enough supply, said the traders, who asked not to be identified as they aren’t authorized to speak publicly. Cargoes have been delayed at the border for more than 20 days, compared with about five days to be cleared under normal circumstances, they said.

China’s General Administration of Customs couldn’t be reached for comment.

Dongguan is one of the major oilseed crushing centers in China, and is home to factories run by companies including agricultural powerhouse Cargill Inc. and Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co. Spot prices for soybean meal, used in animal feed, in Guangdong jumped almost 7% last week, the biggest increase since March, due to the supply shortage.

Officials are taking longer than usual to do quality inspections on imported beans, said a spokesperson from Wilmar International Ltd., the parent company of Yihai Kerry. Cargill didn’t respond to an email inquiry on the impact on its operations in Dongguan.

The world’s biggest food importer has asked traders and processors to buy less foreign grains this year in an attempt to buoy prices and support local farmers amid a slowdown in domestic demand. Authorities initially suggested corn purchases be kept subdued and then later requested halts of barley and sorghum imports, but the measures seem to be leading to longer customs wait times for other crops as well.

The delays come as commercial crushers become cautious on buying US soybeans due to fears President-elect Donald Trump could impose trade tariffs when he takes office next month, sparking a trade war between the two biggest economies. While there has still been a steady stream of Chinese purchases since the election in early November, traders said most of those cargoes are likely destined for state reserves.

Some Chinese animal feed makers in Guangdong have had to suspend production because of the soymeal shortage, the traders said. Although China has taken steps to increase its domestic supply of soybeans in the recent years, the country still relies on imports for more than 80% of its needs.

At the moment, the soybean shortages appear to be mainly limited to Guangdong, the traders said, adding that cargoes were being cleared normally by customs in other parts of China.

 

Brazil 2024/25 Soy Output Seen at 171.5m Tons: AgRural

Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean harvest is estimated at 171.5m tons, consulting firm AgRural says in emailed statement.

  • Number will be revised in the 2nd half of January, with the harvest already underway
    • “A good round of rain across practically all of Brazil guaranteed another week of favorable conditions for the development of the 2024/25 soybean harvest, whose planting is practically finished”
  • Total corn production — which combines the first, second and third harvests — in the 2024/25 season in Brazil is estimated at 121.3m tons

 

Ukraine Grain Exports 22% Higher Y/Y So Far This Season

Ukraine’s grain exports reached 19.5m tons in the season that started July 1, compared with 16m tons in a similar period a year ago, the Agriculture Ministry said on its website.

  • Total exports included:
    • 9.2m tons of wheat, up 37% from a year ago
    • 1.9m tons of barley, double the period last year
    • 8m tons of corn, slightly down compared with last year
  • Still, grain exports in December have shrunk by about 60% y/y to 1.1m tons, compared with almost 3m tons shipped in a similar period in 2023

 

Indonesia Nov. Palm Oil Exports Fall 11.21% M/m: Intertek

Indonesia’s palm oil exports fell 11.21% m/m in November, according to Intertek Testing Services.

  • Palm oil exports fell to 2.005m tons from 2.258m tons in October
  • Crude palm oil shipments fell to 229,421 tons from 292,085 tons in October
  • RBD palm olein shipments fell to 871,300 tons from 1.020m tons in October
  • RBD palm oil shipments fell to 378,229 tons from 403,768 tons in October
  • Palm oil sales to European Union fell to 216,807 tons from 334,292 tons in October
  • Palm oil sales to India fell to 743,555 tons from 793,198 tons in October
  • Palm oil sales to China rose to 364,167 tons from 325,727 tons in October

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Prices drop and return to levels before the planting

The significant volume of imports over the last months and recent deals closed in the spot market indicate that purchasers have stocks. Sellers reduced prices, but this was not enough to attract buyers. Players expect to trade higher volumes only in 2025.

As a result, liquidity is low in the domestic market and prices are moving down. Taking Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul into account, current quotations are the smallest since April/May this year, before sowing activities. In areas in São Paulo (high consumption and low availability), monthly price averages have been firm over the last eight months, influenced by the import parity.

According to data from Cepea, between December 6 and 13, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) moved down 2.8% in Rio Grande do Sul, 0.42% in Santa Catarina and 0.78% in Paraná. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), quotations dropped 0.62% in São Paulo, 0.19% in Paraná and 0.28% in Rio Grande do Sul, while they increased 0.26% in Santa Catarina. Dollar quotations downed 0.74% against Real in the same comparison, at BRL 6.042 on Dec. 13.

 

France Soft-Wheat Plantings for 2025 Up 9% Y/y on Better Weather

French farmers planted 6.3m hectares of winter grains for the 2025 harvest, according to estimates from the country’s Agriculture Ministry on Tuesday.

  • That’s up 6.6% from 2024, and 1.9% below the five-year average
    • Soft winter wheat area at 4.5m hectares, up 9% y/y, though “it remains low compared to levels seen over the past 30 years”
    • Durum-wheat area at 206k hectares, down 1.9% y/y and 13.3% below the 2020-2024 average. Planted area is lowest level in 30 years
    • Barley area at 1.23m hectares, down 0.8% y/y
    • NOTE: The majority of French wheat planting happens over the winter
  • Winter rapeseed area seen at 1.3m hectares, up 0.6% y/y

2024 HARVEST:

  • Corn crop seen at 15m tons, up 15.5% y/y and 12.7% above the five-year average
  • Sugar beet estimate at 32.4m tons, up 2.2% y/y and slightly above the five-year average between 2019-2023
  • Yield seen at 78.7 tons/hectare, down from previous estimate of 82 tons/hectare. That’s also down 6% from 2023 due lack of sunshine, bad weather, fungal problems

 

 

 

 

 

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