Global Ag News for Dec 12.24

TOP HEADLINES

India’s Nov vegetable oil imports hit 4-month high on festive demand

India’s vegetable oil imports surged to a four-month high in November as refiners ramped up purchases of soyoil and sunflower oil, replenishing inventories after robust festival season demand, a leading trade body said on Thursday.

The country’s vegetable oil imports in November rose to 1.63 million metric tons, up 10.4% from a month ago, the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA) said in a statement.

The world’s biggest edible oil importer celebrated the Dussehra and Diwali festivals in October and November, increasing the consumption of sweets and fried food.

Soyoil imports increased 19.3% in November to 407,648 tons and sunflower oil imports surged 42.5% to 340,660 tons, the SEA said.

The country’s palm oil imports fell 0.4% from October to 841,993 metric tons, it said.

Argentina has been selling soyoil at very competitive prices for the past two months, leading to higher imports by India but putting pressure on local soybean prices, said B V Mehta, executive director of SEA.

Soybean prices are trading below the government-set floor price of 4,892 rupees per 100 kg and are likely to remain under pressure until the flow of excess soyoil is restricted, Mehta said.

India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, while it imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine. Palm oil usually trades at a discount to soybean oil and sunflower oil, but is currently holding a premium over these competing oils.

“Palm oil’s premium is forcing Indian refiners to buy more soyoil and sunflower oil. We could see a sharp drop in palm oil imports in December,” said a Mumbai-based dealer.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1/2 in SRW, down 1 in HRW, down 1 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans up 1/2; Soymeal down $0.40; Soyoil up 0.12.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 5 1/2 in SRW, up 12 1/2 in HRW, up 9 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 6 3/4; Soybeans up 4; Soymeal up $4.30; Soyoil down 0.39.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 14 3/4 in SRW, up 25 1/2 in HRW, up 14 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 13 3/4; Soybeans up 7 1/4; Soymeal up $0.10; Soyoil up 0.76.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 13.5% in SRW, down 14.2% in HRW, down 19.5% in HRS; Corn is down 7.6%; Soybeans down 23.1%; Soymeal down 25.6%; Soyoil down 11.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 25) Soybeans down 2 yuan; Soymeal down 15; Soyoil up 44; Palm oil down 58; Corn down 2 — Malaysian Palm is up 65.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 65 ringgit (+1.34%) at 4921.

 

There were changes in registrations (172 Corn, 401 Soyoil). Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 72 Oats; 175 Corn; 312 Soybeans; 770 Soyoil; 1,591 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 11 were: SRW Wheat down 2,891 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,153, Corn up 32,389, Soybeans down 4,496, Soymeal up 3,792, Soyoil up 311.

 

Brazil: A front moving up from Argentina brought heavier rain to the south this weekend and is restarting showers again in central Brazil over the next couple of days. Another system will move through southern areas Friday and Saturday with more rain. Very few areas are showing signs of having weather issues either being too wet or too dry. Overall conditions are still favorable for flowering to filling soybeans and developing corn.

Argentina: A system will move through Wednesday night through Friday with scattered showers, but will favor the west and north. Some of the important areas will stay dry across the central and south, unfavorable for developing corn and soybeans. Mild temperatures will keep water demand down through next week, but the country needs more rain. The next chance would be mid-late next week. While issues are only spotty currently, we could see more trouble spots expanding with the pattern continuing to favor scattered showers instead of widespread heavy rain.

Northern Plains: A burst of colder air will be in place through Thursday, but then quickly be replaced by warm air on Friday. Light snow is likely to be around the region through the changing temperatures. Any storm systems that produce good precipitation amounts are forecast to miss the region over the next 10 days. But with so many in the pipeline, that could change. Drought areas throughout much of the region would prefer the precipitation to occur.

Central/Southern Plains: Another system could start to produce showers across the east on Friday but amounts do not look heavy. Some storm systems next week could bring in some better precipitation but they are not currently forecast to do so. The region has been drier lately after a very wet November and would prefer the storm systems to make more of an impact than forecast.

Midwest: A burst of cold air is pushing through the region Wednesday and Thursday. That could be enough to produce some streaks of light snow and open up the lake-effect snow machine for a couple of days again. But warmer air will spread back into the region over the weekend and so will a chance for showers with a system that brings in the warmer air. A couple of systems next week may bring a mix of rain and snow that could help with the ongoing drought situation.

Lower Mississippi: Recent showers in the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys could give a brief bump to water levels on the river, but much more is needed. The gauge in Memphis fell below the low water threshold again and that will likely lead to some restrictions for transportation. The pattern may get a little more favorable and active across the basin this weekend and next week, but it is uncertain if it will benefit the river systems.

Europe: A massive low-pressure system has torn apart across the south, though some showers may linger throughout the rest of the week. Organized rainfall may return to portions of the continent this weekend and several systems look to continue the rainfall through most of the continent through the end of the year. Areas in the northwest where wheat is still active have found conditions that are too wet. Otherwise, the continued rainfall should help to boost soil moisture for areas that have been too dry. Parts of Spain and the northeast could use more rain, though.

Black Sea: Part of a system from southern Europe is moving through the region with scattered showers over the next couple of days. Though most of the region has seen winter wheat go dormant, the coming showers should help to build soil moisture somewhat. More precipitation is expected next week. With how dry the region has been since February, a significant boost in soil moisture is needed for wheat when it breaks dormancy this coming spring.

Australia: Recent rainfall in the east has improved conditions for cotton and sorghum development. The remaining wheat and canola harvest has needed to dodge the rain, but drier conditions this week have allowed soils to drain and fieldwork to resume. The pattern is a bit drier for the rest of the month, with systems bringing through isolated showers instead of organized clusters and lines. While most areas can handle some period of dryness, it is not a favorable look for developing cotton and sorghum.

 

The player sheet for Dec. 11 had funds: net buyers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 3,000 corn, buyers of 2,000 soybeans, and buyers of 1,000 soymeal.

TENDERS

• FEED BARLEY PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grain buyer bought about 60,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender on Wednesday
• FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: An animal feed importer group in Thailand is believed to have purchased around 63,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in a tender which closed on Wednesday seeking up to 120,000 tons
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 112,889 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S., Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed on Thursday.
• NON-GMO SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. issued new international tenders to purchase around 50,000 metric tons of food-quality soybeans free of genetically-modified organisms (GMOs)
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• FEED WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 65,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Feb. 7 and arrive in Japan by March 6, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on Dec. 18.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Importers in the Philippines are tendering to purchase around 60,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Saudi Arabia’s state purchasing agency, the General Food Security Authority (GFSA), has issued an international tender to buy an estimated 595,000 metric tons of wheat
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of five analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Dec. 5.

• Corn est. range 800k – 1,900k tons, with avg of 1,369k
• Soybean est. range 900k – 2,200k tons, with avg of 1,713k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 1.5% to 22.648M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 23.227 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.078m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.073m

 

Argentina 2024-25 Wheat Crop Estimate Raised 0.5M Tons: Rosario

Argentina’s wheat crop is now seen at 19.3m tons in 2024-2025, up from a prior outlook for 18.8m tons, the Rosario Board of Trade says in a monthly report.

• The harvest is more than halfway complete, and yields have been better than expected in the center of the country
  • Cool weather and significant rain in November helped improve conditions in some areas
• Estimates for corn and soybean output remain unchanged

 

Argentina’s Rosario exchange raises wheat forecast after fresh November

Argentina’s Rosario grains exchange on Wednesday hiked up its forecast for the nation’s 2024/25 wheat harvest thanks to recent rainfalls and fresh weather over the austral spring month of November.

The exchange now expects a 19.3 million metric ton wheat harvest compared to a prior forecast of 18.8 million tons. It maintained its corn and soybean predictions at 50-51 million tons and 53-53.5 million tons, respectively. The exchange added that both corn and soy crops were enjoying good conditions thanks to the November climate.

Argentine farmers have started harvesting their wheat fields and should complete this by January next year.

Argentina is the world’s top exporter of processed soy, the no. 3 for corn, and a key supplier of wheat, and ample rains have put the South American nation on track to recover from recent seasons battered by droughts and crop diseases.

 

China Boosts Corn Stockpile Purchases to Stabilize Market:Xinhua

China Grain Reserves Group boosts purchases of corn for stockpiles from major production bases such as the northeastern region, in an effort to stabilize the market, the official Xinhua News Agency reports.

• Sinograin has more than 340 outlets in China to purchase corn for reserves, Xinhua says

 

India Halves Wheat Stockpile Limit for Traders and Retailers

The government reduced the stockpile limit for traders and wholesalers to 1,000 tons from 2,000 tons, according to a statement from the food ministry.

• It also cut the limit for retailers to 5 tons from 10 tons; the cap for processors has been lowered to 50% of their monthly installed capacity, against 60% earlier
• The restriction on reserves will be effective until the end of March
• “The Department of Food and Public Distribution is maintaining a close watch over the stock position of wheat to control prices and ensure easy availability in the country”
• NOTE: India’s wheat production climbed to a record 113.29 million tons in the 2023-24 season; the crop is harvested from the middle of March
• NOTE: India average wheat retail price was 32.15 rupees a kilogram on Tuesday, up 3% from a year earlier: government data

 

Export demand may push Ukraine wheat prices up in Dec-Jan, producers say

The volume of wheat export contracts from Ukraine in December totals 1.1 million metric tons and high demand from exporters may increase prices by $20 to $25 per ton in December-January, major Ukrainian agricultural producers’ union UAC said.

The union said late on Wednesday traders had exported 136,000 tons of Ukrainian-origin wheat in the first nine days of December.

It said that demand for Ukrainian wheat remained strong, especially in Spain, where last week Ukrainian feed wheat was contracted at $237-$238 per ton for delivery in January.

“We can expect a gradual increase in wheat prices in December-January, which may reach $20-$25 per ton,” UAC said in a report.

Agricultural consultancy APK-Inform said this week that Ukrainian milling wheat export prices rose $2 a ton over the last seven days to reach $207 to $218 per ton carriage paid to (CPT) Black Sea as of Dec. 11.

Ukraine has exported a total of 9.13 million tons of wheat so far in the 2024/25 July-June season, farm ministry data shows. The ministry has said no more than 16.2 million tons of wheat can be exported this season.

First deputy farm minister Taras Vysotskiy told Reuters last month that wheat exports in December and the remaining months of this season would not exceed 1 million tons a month and exporters would switch from wheat to corn.

 

Brazil farmer lobby asks to lift soybean ban from deforested Amazon rainforest

A farmers’ lobby in Brazil is seeking to end a two-decade-long agreement that forbids grain traders from buying soybeans from farms on deforested land in the Amazon rainforest, claiming the deal has created an uneven playing field.

Soybean farmer lobby Aprosoja-MT based in western Mato Grosso state said on Wednesday that the agreement fostered “a purchasing cartel” while harming farmers who strictly comply with the South American nation’s forest code.

The group said in a statement that it formally asked antitrust watchdog CADE to end the deal.

Brazil is the world’s largest soybean grower and exporter, with Mato Grosso the country’s top-producing state.

Global commodity giants including ADM and Bunge voluntarily signed up for the “Amazon soy moratorium” in the mid-2000s, pledging to stop buying soy from farms in the rainforest that were deforested from 2008.

Under forestry rules, Amazon landowners can clear up to 20% of their property. But an early 2000s deforestation surge sparked calls for action by companies that feared a wider ban.

Scientists and conservationists have praised the moratorium for slowing deforestation in the Amazon, the world’s largest rainforest and a bulwark against climate change since its trees absorb vast amounts of climate-warming greenhouse gases.

Aprosoja-MT noted it filed a complaint to CADE after years of failed negotiation attempts, adding that the moratorium generated 20 billion reais ($3.3 billion) in losses for the state.

CADE did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Earlier this year, Mato Grosso state lawmakers passed a law stripping tax breaks from firms adhering to the moratorium.

“Our commitment is with the families who have been harmed for almost 20 years,” Aprosoja said in a separate statement.

Last week, environmentalists accused grain traders of seeking to weaken the moratorium.

Trader lobby Abiove has said it was holding discussions on the moratorium, but without going into further detail. Asked for comment on Wednesday, Abiove said it had no update.

 

China in Fertilizer Focus Amid Stimulus Efforts, Export Ban

Corn Belt reference prices for ammonia were stable in early December as application resumed after November’s rain delays, with spring prepay programs postponed until the fall season concludes. Newly announced stimulus efforts in China are directed at supporting consumption, boosting the outlook for corn demand.

 

Euronext says delivery points along the Mosel river will not be available for rapeseed futures

Delivery points along the Mosel river will not be available for the February rapeseed futures contract COMG5 due to an accident on the waterway, trading platform Euronext said on Wednesday.

The river Mosel in western Germany, an important route for grains and rapeseed shipments, has been closed to inland waterways shipping after an accident that damaged a lock, navigation authorities said on Tuesday.

 

 

 

 

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